Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 185. indianrivguy:
shear is trying to rip the tops off the T-storms in south Florida today.. I'm GLAD..


You have not read Lee's blog lately, ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
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197. Ed22
Quoting 155. daddyjames:


Consider that a qualifying statement . . . draw your own conclusions.
I've wrote in one of my early comments in this week, I said that invest 95L could become a strong category 1 or 2 hurricane; so I'm also qualify to say that too. I look at this system, when it over the Caribbean sea west of Jamaica I said that this was going to be a tropical cyclone over southern Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida early next week, I'm more qualified than you to say that before models pick it and ran with it.
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Quoting 156. LAbonbon:




Here's that low/wave down by Panama your sfc map depicts.
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Quoting 189. FOREX:


I noticed that earlier. Back to a yellow crayon? Or a second center still is under the convection?


No idea. Interesting too is that there is a nice anit-cyclone developing over the convection to the east of the invest.

Although, there are no indications of any surface vorticity in this region.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 185. indianrivguy:
shear is trying to rip the tops off the T-storms in south Florida today.. I'm GLAD..

With all the rain across south Florida the last few days, and with all that looks to be coming, whats the latest info with the levels of the lake, and are they still releasing at maximum ability?
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I'm done here! Sorry to many trouble makers on here and no wonder why so many leave because they get attacked so much that they have no choice.


Well before you go :o)

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Quoting 173. flsky:

Pat, I thought you left last night for CO.


No need for me in Colorado, I get nosebleeds climbing a tree.

Assessments are being done by a lot of agencies.

We move on them when we get them and there are a lot of damage assessments left to be done and it will likely take weeks more there.

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Quoting 168. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
Manuel y Manuelito I91


Hi, Yucatan - what are you referring to as Manuelito I91?

I noticed this on WU's tropical page, but it has an inception date of 1969. Can anyone shed any light on this??
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189. FOREX
Quoting 181. daddyjames:

Interesting, the surface circulation seems to have emerged into the GOM?, leaving the convection behind. Or is that soemthing else?





I noticed that earlier. Back to a yellow crayon? Or a second center still is under the convection?
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Large and decent looking wave in CATL. were it not for the stable dry air we could have had an intereting system.
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187. 7544
Quoting 12. CycloneOz:
It may be raining very hard in Miami when I land Monday.


bring your hurricane equipment and cameras lol u never know
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JMA goes up to 75kts.


WTPQ21 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1319 USAGI (1319)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 17.3N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 18.4N 126.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 201200UTC 19.9N 123.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 211200UTC 21.3N 120.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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shear is trying to rip the tops off the T-storms in south Florida today.. I'm GLAD..
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Its only Fall in the northern Hemisphere come Sunday, as it turns to Spring down Under.


The Planet is Round according to NOAA.

U know, da Science People.

Fresca ?
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Thanks all. If there was a storm out there, I believe they would fly also. The whole thing about a Government shut down is ridiculous anyway just like this blog today.
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Mark Sudduth has an interesting " take " > " One interesting item of note – the two most reliable global models, the ECMWF and the GFS, both show very little in the way of strengthening with this system once it is over the Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the UKMET model, another fairly reliable global model, shows modest strengthening with a track towards Mississippi. As usual, the hurricane-specific HRWF model creates a strong hurricane out of the situation, something that I simply cannot believe at this point.".
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Quoting 160. moonlightcowboy:


Two rotations?

Interesting, the surface circulation seems to have emerged into the GOM?, leaving the convection behind. Or is that soemthing else?



Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
180. jpsb
Quoting 162. jazzygal:
It's a person opinion, isn't that what the blog is for? Also, if the Government shuts down Oct. 1ST, I don't believe the HH will be able to fly. Hope nothing is out there come Oct. 1ST!
Will they turn all the weather satellites and weather radar off too? Damn and I was looking forward to watching the ice caps melt this fall. Oh well.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
Quoting 171. CaicosRetiredSailor:
What time is it?


........





It's full moon whacko time.


Is that anything like "peanut-butter-jelly-time" ??
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recon cancelled...95l creeping along
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176. FOREX
Quoting 172. Ed22:
I've wrote that invest 95L could become a hurricane approaching Florida early next week a category 1 or 2 even a 3 wouldn't be a surprise. This low pressure area while moving offshore could consolidate quickly into tropical depression or a named storm ( Jerry) in the next 12 to 24 hours.


I think the intensity models have backed off a bit.
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Quoting 149. Patrap:
"Guess what day it is?", ask's the Tall Office Camel.




I told my girlfriend that this AM.. its hump day, I'll be over later.. :)
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Pat this ones coming off a little further north ehh?
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173. flsky
Quoting 165. Patrap:
The NHC has a Mission Statement and Politics wont interfere with it I can assure you on dat.

Pat, I thought you left last night for CO.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
172. Ed22
I've wrote that invest 95L could become a hurricane approaching Florida early next week a category 1 or 2 even a 3 wouldn't be a surprise. This low pressure area while moving offshore could consolidate quickly into tropical depression or a named storm ( Jerry) in the next 12 to 24 hours.
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What time is it?


........





It's full moon whacko time.
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Quoting 162. jazzygal:
It's a person opinion, isn't that what the blog is for? Also, if the Government shuts down Oct. 1ST, I don't believe the HH will be able to fly. Hope nothing is out there come Oct. 1ST!


As the planes - at least the manned ones - are under the auspices of the DOD, I would think there would be an exception, if only under the auspices of 'National Security".
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Manuel y Manuelito I91
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Quoting 162. jazzygal:
It's a person opinion, isn't that what the blog is for? Also, if the Government shuts down Oct. 1ST, I don't believe the HH will be able to fly. Hope nothing is out there come Oct. 1ST!


I hear what sounds to me like a calm before a storm.
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Quoting 152. Patrap:
USAGI



Usagi means rabbit in Japanese. So of course it's hopping around a bit.

(I watch too much anime!)
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The NHC has a Mission Statement and Politics wont interfere with it I can assure you on dat.
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wow!! all the peninsula under rain.
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Quoting 154. ChillinInTheKeys:


Hump the ridge day???


What great days those were here on the blog...back in 2008 and 2009.

Disasters of epic proportion could be read here on the blog every single day during the season.
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It's a person opinion, isn't that what the blog is for? Also, if the Government shuts down Oct. 1ST, I don't believe the HH will be able to fly. Hope nothing is out there come Oct. 1ST!
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NOUS42 KNHC 181530
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 18 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-109 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0930Z
D. 22.0N 94.3W D. 23.0N 96.0W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2100Z E. 20/1130Z TO 20/1530Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
IS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: RESEARCH
NA872 TO FLY DEPARTING 19/1100Z, 68 DROPS PLANNED
AREA BOUNDED BY 27N 88W, 27N 96.5W, 20N 96W, AND 20N 90.5W
ON STATION 10 HOURS.

4. SUSSEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NA871 TO AREA ETD 20/1400Z, NO DROPS.

5. ADDED: MISSIONS TASKED FROM TCPOD WERE CANX BY NHC AT 18/13Z
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Quoting 149. Patrap:
"Guess what day it is?", ask's the Tall Office Camel.




Two rotations?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29598
USAGI Day Viz to Night IR Loop

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Since Playa del Carmen (near Cancun)to Campeche is raining.




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Quoting 128. ChillinInTheKeys:


Oz... Luv ya man... But you bring this image to mind...




Excuse me... But I believe you have my stapler.


That's great! I looked like that once...but without the tie! :D

My diet in Ecuador is amazing. I have lost much of my excess weight. I am walking everywhere I need to go, and some places are far away.

I take my dog with me.

I look different today...but yeah...that was me! :)
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Quoting 136. Walshy:
Brad Panovich WCNC
The HWRF model has been very unreliable this season so far but it initialized pretty well today on #Invest95L over the Yucatan. It then develops it into a hurricane moving into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There is some supports from the other models as well. All interests in the Gulf should pay attention to the weather over the next few days and into the weekend. #Jerry



Consider that a qualifying statement . . . draw your own conclusions.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 149. Patrap:
"Guess what day it is?", ask's the Tall Office Camel.




Hump the ridge day???

Haven't seen the sun here since... Welcome to the "Sunny" Florida Keys!!!
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Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:
I'm done here! Sorry to many trouble makers on here and no wonder why so many leave because they get attacked so much that they have no choice.



I wouldn't leave. Bullying has been a part of WU since it started. Just post what you think. That's why Dr. M started this site. I doubt he's offended.
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USAGI

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Quoting 139. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
Manuel has to give and to give. Now there is another disturbance together with Manuel Invest 91. That say in the matter?




Los dos son Manuel.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 146. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Except I'm not in class right now.


um humm..right..:)
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"Guess what day it is?", ask's the Tall Office Camel.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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