Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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My new estimatated trakcs (based on frontal setup and recent model runs and trends).

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Quoting 194. Donteven:

With all the rain across south Florida the last few days, and with all that looks to be coming, whats the latest info with the levels of the lake, and are they still releasing at maximum ability?


No, they actually stopped discharging into the St. Lucie yesterday from Okeechobee Lake.. we do however, have some 4982 cubic feet per second entering our estuary from our own watershed.. 37265 gallons per second... 2.2 + million a minute, close to 2.8 BILLION per day.. WAY too much.
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not a good scenario setting up for the outerbanks..
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that would be one slow moving system by NC..still there at hour 150..

141 hours




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Quoting 226. hurricane23:
Nothing there..shreaded mess embeded in front. probably some rain for fl.
I wouldn't agree with the shredded part as the LGEM and DSHPS bring it to hurricane status while showing generally favorable shear in the Gulf of Mexico as agreed per the NHC TWO. It'll be competing with a front though that'll rob it of much needed convergence and divergence. Always something this year.
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Usagi was just upgraded to typhoon strength less than an hour ago. It looks great, however it looks like it is currently starting an eye wall replacement cycle at the moment.

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Quoting 239. SuperStorm093:
most models are backing off with 95L with only the HORRIBLE HWRF model that is NEVER right.

So you don't think it will be a Hurricane anymore?
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242. FOREX
Quoting 237. scottsvb:
GFS is showing a Non Tropical low in its past many runs...but everything will be determined if 95L starts to develop tonight around 21N and 92W


It might be starting to fall apart, the llc shot out from under the convection. check visible to the nw of the convection. what is your opinion?
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Quoting 230. FunnelVortex:


I would never want to be caught in the outer banks during a hurricane. Those are the most dangerous places to be.


It was very scary. Will never do that again.
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Quoting 225. FunnelVortex:


Winds travel east south of horizontal fronts, so no moisture for texas.


Check out forecast through Saturday, just posted in #236.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
most models are backing off with 95L with only the HORRIBLE HWRF model that is NEVER right.
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Quoting 231. Waltanater:
I absolutely love that commercial! It's a riot.


Isn't everyday Hump day?

I don't work M-F, so my hump day is actually Tuesday.
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GFS is showing a Non Tropical low in its past many runs...but everything will be determined if 95L starts to develop tonight around 21N and 92W
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Quoting 223. Dakster:
Thanks Daddyjames & Waltanater.

I am hoping for Texas to get some rain.


It's looking good:

24 hour accumulation

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 213. ncstorm:
starting at 96 hours--sorry for the long post..

12z GFS..














ANd still a area of low pressure in the BOC after 6 days...
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I think that they canceled to give it a few hours to see if it actually will develop convection over the center or not
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12z CMC running

12 hours
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Morning all. Aside from some bickering on here I noticed that today there is an above average volume of fun pictures and graphs being posted. That's great since I have to admit that my attention span this morning has been caught in a low-level area of OCD with an AOI over lack of sleep. :)

@Comment 111: That depicts me perfectly this morning except for the minor difference in gender and hairdo.
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Quoting 149. Patrap:
"Guess what day it is?", ask's the Tall Office Camel.


I absolutely love that commercial! It's a riot.
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Quoting 228. VBgirl:
Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Isabel hitting southeastern VA and the Outer Banks. Doesn't seem like 10 years ago. It was quite an experience.


I would never want to be caught in the outer banks during a hurricane. Those are the most dangerous places to be.
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Quoting 184. Patrap:
Its only Fall in the northern Hemisphere come Sunday, as it turns to Spring down Under.


The Planet is Round according to NOAA.

U know, da Science People.

Fresca ?
Flat Pat...I went to the edge and saw the turtle that holds it up. If your wondering what the turtle stands on, it goes all the way to the bottom....pfft, pop, guzzle..
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Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Isabel hitting southeastern VA and the Outer Banks. Doesn't seem like 10 years ago. It was quite an experience.
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Quoting 161. Tazmanian:
NOUS42 KNHC 181530
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 18 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-109 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0930Z
D. 22.0N 94.3W D. 23.0N 96.0W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2100Z E. 20/1130Z TO 20/1530Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
IS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: RESEARCH
NA872 TO FLY DEPARTING 19/1100Z, 68 DROPS PLANNED
AREA BOUNDED BY 27N 88W, 27N 96.5W, 20N 96W, AND 20N 90.5W
ON STATION 10 HOURS.

4. SUSSEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NA871 TO AREA ETD 20/1400Z, NO DROPS.

5. ADDED: MISSIONS TASKED FROM TCPOD WERE CANX BY NHC AT 18/13Z
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Nothing there..shreaded mess embeded in front. probably some rain for fl.
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Quoting 216. daddyjames:


The front that's gonna bring rain to Texas.

Well, maybe the front - questionable as to whether or not it'll be strong enough.

maybe the next one . . .


Winds travel east south of horizontal fronts, so no moisture for texas.
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Quoting 220. centex:
Is there a Merida radar link?


Link to Mexican radar.

Although it is loading very slow at the moment - not necessarily surprising.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Thanks Daddyjames & Waltanater.

I am hoping for Texas to get some rain.
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Quoting 208. Dakster:
Looks like we have a whole new crew blogging here now.
--

What is supposed to come in a cause the GOM disturbance to turn towards the East?
From DOCTOR MASTORS post:

A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche.
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the GFS has whatever this is as I now dont think this is 95L moving slowly over NC from hour 114 to hour 141--27 hours
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Is there a Merida radar link?
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Bloggers,The Government will not shutdown. Hoping some folks in texas can get some beneficial rain where it's needed.
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Quoting 206. scottsvb:
LLC is located as of 12pm EST 20.5N and 91.2W moving wnw


That is over water now. I wonder why NHC canceled this afternoon mission.
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Quoting 208. Dakster:
Looks like we have a whole new crew blogging here now.
--

What is supposed to come in a cause the GOM disturbance to turn towards the East?


The front that's gonna bring rain to Texas.

Well, maybe the front - questionable as to whether or not it'll be strong enough.

maybe the next one . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 209. Kumo:


Some parting advice that might help you in the future.

1.) Everyone, including ourselves, have differing opinions and frankly, most of them stink.

2.) Learn to grow a thick skin and stop taking things so personally.

3.) It's fine to disagree with a blog author, just be respectful when you go about it. You would not like a guest coming to your home and being rude to you and your family, would you?

Remember these and good luck on where ever your travels take you.
What a great post. Thank you Kumo.
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214. jpsb
Quoting 205. Waltanater:
Now that Scott is out of here, I'll take over for him! LOL
It's a dangerous, thankless job and nobody has to do it. But if you insist.

Well I have put off planting the garden long enough, time to do something productive.

I think Dr Masters nailed the forecast, but that's just me.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1190
starting at 96 hours--sorry for the long post..

12z GFS..














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I may have to agree with StormTrackerScott here because I too feel that 95L will move into FL...I do see it happening..., and that Dr. Masters is not always correct. I remember when STS nailed his forecast for a storm earlier this year.
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211. FOREX
Quoting 206. scottsvb:
LLC is located as of 12pm EST 20.5N and 91.2W moving wnw


See post 181. Curious on your thoughts.
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209. Kumo
Quoting 132. StormTrackerScott:
I'm done here! Sorry to many trouble makers on here and no wonder why so many leave because they get attacked so much that they have no choice.


Some parting advice that might help you in the future.

1.) Everyone, including ourselves, have differing opinions and frankly, most of them stink.

2.) Learn to grow a thick skin and stop taking things so personally.

3.) It's fine to disagree with a blog author, just be respectful when you go about it. You would not like a guest coming to your home and being rude to you and your family, would you?

Remember these and good luck on where ever your travels take you.
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Looks like we have a whole new crew blogging here now.
--

What is supposed to come in a cause the GOM disturbance to turn towards the East?
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207. 7544
Quoting 206. scottsvb:
LLC is located as of 12pm EST 20.5N and 91.2W moving wnw


then the blob to the east of 95L is a sep blob ? tia
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LLC is located as of 12pm EST 20.5N and 91.2W moving wnw
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Now that Scott is out of here, I'll take over for him! LOL
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Look at Manuel


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Quoting 197. Ed22:
I've wrote in one of my early comments in this week, I said that invest 95L could become a strong category 1 or 2 hurricane; so I'm also qualify to say that too. I look at this system, when it over the Caribbean sea west of Jamaica I said that this was going to be a tropical cyclone over southern Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida early next week, I'm more qualified than you to say that before models pick it and ran with it.


Misplaced outrage my friend. Smile, and have a good day.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
201. FOREX
Quoting 197. Ed22:
I've wrote in one of my early comments in this week, I said that invest 95L could become a strong category 1 or 2 hurricane; so I'm also qualify to say that too. I look at this system, when it over the Caribbean sea west of Jamaica I said that this was going to be a tropical cyclone over southern Gulf of Mexico heading towards Florida early next week, I'm more qualified than you to say that before models pick it and ran with it.


ED, see post 181. very interesting.
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Quoting 185. indianrivguy:
shear is trying to rip the tops off the T-storms in south Florida today.. I'm GLAD..


You have not read Lee's blog lately, ;)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.