Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 278. moonlightcowboy:
My cliffnote takeaways from Doc's blog on Lake Okeechobee on August 24th.





making it bigger, ain't necessarily gonna make us want to comment, although it does help those with older eyes ;)

On a serious note: Water Management there is so quick to dump water out of the Lake O' at the slightest indication of any potential threat that it would have to be something quick and/or unforseen (like the amount dumped over CO recently). Not to minimize that something does need to be done.

In the past, reactions to predicted storm paths/rainfall events have contributed to water shortages in the region at later dates.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
what is..SUPERCELL COMPOSITE???...tornado danger???..Supercell Composite Parameter

A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell "threshold" values, and larger values of SCP denote greater "overlap" in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.


This index is formulated as follows:


SCP = (muCAPE / 1000 J kg-1) * (ESRH / 50 m2 s-2) * (EBWD / 20 m s-1)


EBWD is divided by 20 m s-1 in the range of 10-20 m s-1. EBWD less than 10 m s-1 is set to zero, and EBWD greater than 20 m s-1 is set to one.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting 292. FOREX:


so do you think 95L still has a llc under the convection?


If I said what I think, that 95L is two discrete storms, I'd get tossed off the blog so I'm keeping me big mouth shut. Remember poor Gabrielle with that bloodsucker that kept her from going anywhere or doing anything?
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Funny thing about the 12 Z GFS, the new low that develops along the front and moves up towards the OBX, gets "blocked" from escaping out into the open Atlantic. The 12 Z actually shows a stall then a slow drift SE and eventually east as the next front moves across CONUS.
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Cancun webcam; updating every some seconds. Always nice to watch with developing systems like 95L.

Link to the cam.

Timelapse since this morning.
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292. FOREX
Quoting 287. redwagon:



Panama blob might make it into the GOH.


so do you think 95L still has a llc under the convection?
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Quoting 21. CycloneOz:
I will continue to bang the drum for the need of at least one professional, nautical chasing team for hurricanes at sea.

Even a small submarine with one surface support vessel (equipped with drones) could achieve AMAZING science.

Not to mention the entertainment value.

Who of us would not tune into a 24 broadcast of a hurricane at sea?

Imagine the video. Imagine the real-time storm data updates.


Imagine the sea sickness. :P
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Quoting 280. Chucktown:


That is an incorrect statement. Moisture will be advected NE from 95L into the stalled front this weekend. This will help to develop a baroclinic low that will eventually become somewhat of a nor'easter that the GFS is showing. 95L will be left to fester deep in the BOC until at least late next week. Let's see if the 12 Z Euro later on is consistent with the 0 Z run from this morning.
ya this thing gonna be around for a bit as a stall and eventually pull ne after day 7 all the while feeding vapour across ne ward and a frontal area draped across just north of gulf
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"Interesting call by Dr. Masters this far out as to the "stuck" issue for 95L based on weak steering currents but his logic is sound if the trof does not push down far enough to pick up the system."

-Weathermanwannabe


Great post, interesting information. I'll be curious to see how that pans out.

One thing though: no such word as "trof."

It's "trough", like "cough".

English is a funny language, no?
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Quoting 279. bappit:

NHC discussion:

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THUS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

I think the diffluence is supporting those extra clouds. Each little disturbance comes by and gets a boost from it before they move on.



Panama blob might make it into the GOH.
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Quoting 274. SuperStorm093:
Yes I know, there is a door at every exit pretty much, thank you.


watch out for them doors
they can mess ya up big time


nice lunch time read doc thanks

wow post count running high today I see

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Quoting 280. Chucktown:


That is an incorrect statement. Moisture will be advected NE from 95L into the stalled front this weekend. This will help to develop a baroclinic low that will eventually become somewhat of a nor'easter that the GFS is showing. 95L will be left to fester deep in the BOC until at least late next week. Let's see if the 12 Z Euro later on is consistent with the 0 Z run from this morning.


good luck.
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Quoting 279. bappit:

NHC discussion:

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THUS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

I think the diffluence is supporting those extra clouds. Each little disturbance comes by and gets a boost from it before they move on.


Thanks Bap - Perhaps that was what was racing into the region earlier today on the loops?
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Quoting 282. Patrap:


Land / Water Fujiwhara? Precedent?
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Quoting 269. Patrap:




Lots going on. I have my eye on that Panama low as it's really taking on moisture and starting to look classic.
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Quoting 265. FunnelVortex:


Our first Nor'easter. And ironically it forms out of 95L....


That is an incorrect statement. Moisture will be advected NE from 95L into the stalled front this weekend. This will help to develop a baroclinic low that will eventually become somewhat of a nor'easter that the GFS is showing. 95L will be left to fester deep in the BOC until at least late next week. Let's see if the 12 Z Euro later on is consistent with the 0 Z run from this morning.
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Quoting 181. daddyjames:

Interesting, the surface circulation seems to have emerged into the GOM?, leaving the convection behind.




NHC discussion:

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THUS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION IN THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

I think the diffluence is supporting those extra clouds. Each little disturbance comes by and gets a boost from it before they move on.
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My cliffnote takeaways from Doc's blog on Lake Okeechobee on August 24th.




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Good Afternoon. Been very busy this am at work so I skipped all the "drama".

Interesting call by Dr. Masters this far out as to the "stuck" issue for 95L based on weak steering currents but his logic is sound if the trof does not push down far enough to pick up the system.

Conversely, the current "streaming" pattern off to the NE, which is a by-product of the mid and upper level sheer/steering flow Link can sometimes telegraph (to the visual eye) the direction where a fully developed tropical storm could "want" to go; that convection displaced to the E-NE of the Yucatan can be deceiving when we are only dealing with an undeveloped system at this time.

With all of that said, it is way too early to know exactly where this will end up next week. Models do not do well with long-term track forecasts on "disturbances", and everything will have to be recalculated over the weekend and Monday, if a TD or storm does form, when the Hunter's go in to pinpoint the center. At that time, we will have a better idea as to the strength/depth and timing of the trof and how strong the disturbance gets.

"If" the steering currents at the mid and upper levels do stay weak, it will be a tough forecast regardless as to track and ultimate landfall.....Any speculation otherwise at this point is merely a combination of educated and uneducated guesses.

For the time being, all interests in Mexico and the Western Gulf Coast/Southern Texas should keep a close eye on the weekend developments unless NHC comes up with a different solution once they start generating Official 3-day tracks.

Finally, and regardless of the development time-tables, The Yucatan area, Cayman Islands and Western Cuba are going to be in for continued heavy rains (and flooding and mudslide threats) over the next several days because of this slow mover...That is the immediate threat from 95L at the moment.

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276. 7544
looks like they moved the itz zone to the boc this year lol
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CMC
126 hour




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Quoting 272. ncstorm:


well..there is always the door..

Yes I know, there is a door at every exit pretty much, thank you.
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Quoting 270. FunnelVortex:
95L.

Will it be a hurricane, or will it go straight to being a nor'easter?


neither at the moment.
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Quoting 267. SuperStorm093:
Yup nothing but a WEAK WEAK subtropical storm, no hurricane at all. Boring season continues.


well..there is always the door..

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If you guys want 95L to develop...hope it doesn't move much at all and if anything more NNW than WNW...if this stay east of 94W...it could develop moreso than what the models are showing.
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95L.

Will it be a hurricane, or will it go straight to being a nor'easter?
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Poor Mexico..168 hours and I think thats 95L still in the BOC

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Yup nothing but a WEAK WEAK subtropical storm, no hurricane at all. Boring season continues.
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CMC







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Quoting 246. ncstorm:
that would be one slow moving system by NC..still there at hour 150..

141 hours






Our first Nor'easter. And ironically it forms out of 95L....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:

I wouldn't agree with the shredded part as the LGEM and DSHPS bring it to hurricane status while showing generally favorable shear in the Gulf of Mexico as agreed per the NHC TWO. It'll be competing with a front though that'll rob it of much needed convergence and divergence. Always something this year.


Those intensity models are garbage useless in my opinion. Dont see much more then a another weak TS before it merges with the front early next week. Alot of rain for fl though
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Nearest weather station recorded 2.56" from this mornings storms. Somewhat skeptical of its accuracy but other stations in the area have readings in the 2" range as well. A lot of moisture in the air still, very easily could fire up more later today.

Grove Park

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Precip totals up to hour 150-GFS

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Quoting 232. calkevin77:
Morning all. Aside from some bickering on here I noticed that today there is an above average volume of fun pictures and graphs being posted. That's great since I have to admit that my attention span this morning has been caught in a low-level area of OCD with an AOI over lack of sleep. :)

@Comment 111: That depicts me perfectly this morning except for the minor difference in gender and hairdo.


sure.. you Army guys wear frilly skivvies all the time...

Go Navy, BEAT Army.. again!
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Quoting 249. FunnelVortex:
My new estimatated trakcs (based on frontal setup and recent model runs and trends).



Highly unlikely ... very Wishcast slanted
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Quoting 213. ncstorm:
starting at 96 hours--sorry for the long post..

12z GFS..
















Look at all those lows! 6!
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Most likely path for 95L is WNW-NW before looping around to the NE, I doubt it'll be a Florida event. LA-MS will have to watch.
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Quoting 241. VBgirl:


It was very scary. Will never do that again.


What were you thinking going to the banks anyways? You could have been washed away. Its safer on the mainland.
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Quoting 248. indianrivguy:


No, they actually stopped discharging into the St. Lucie yesterday from Okeechobee Lake.. we do however, have some 4982 cubic feet per second entering our estuary from our own watershed.. 37265 gallons per second... 2.2 + million a minute, close to 2.8 BILLION per day.. WAY too much.


BTW - so happy that you are back on your feet and feeling better.
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Link

south florida radar and satellite combined
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.
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12z CMC
hour 66
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Quoting 242. FOREX:


It might be starting to fall apart, the llc shot out from under the convection. check visible to the nw of the convection. what is your opinion?


The LLC came off the coast this morning near 20.5N and 91.2W .. it's slight N of the models but only by 1 dg. Still can make a difference. Mid Level center is the left over T-Storms to its southeast over the Yucitan.

If 95L can build a CDO tonight near the LLC..a new MLC will form and it could develop but there is dry air in the extreme SW carribean. Time will tell. Do I think this will develop and move NE to Florida? Doubtful right now but Florida will get rain from the front and non tropical low that will form south of the panhandle. Nothing is set yet though. Will know by Thurs evening. (2-3 days out)
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Quoting 243. scottsvb:

So you don't think it will be a Hurricane anymore?
most likely not and not even tropical, probably sub tropical and not very strong at all.
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Quoting 218. Tropicsweatherpr:


That is over water now. I wonder why NHC canceled this afternoon mission.


They did not think it would pop out so fast, maybe.
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My new estimatated trakcs (based on frontal setup and recent model runs and trends).

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.