Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 329. daddyjames:


Since 95L is already in the GOM, would not Mexican radar be more appropriate? Which shows little to nothing right now over water.



Thanks; forgot about the Mexican radar site....That is the better one down the road.

Could you post the link?............Thanks.
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Quoting 344. daddyjames:


Que?


Dos cervezas por favor
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Quoting 340. stormpetrol:


SW Caribbean bears watching.



what is that blob near Costa Rica ??
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346. VR46L


Humberto soon to be swallowed by a front
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Does anyone have problems with pulling up Flash Tracker? It keeps telling me to upgrade my Flash Player to at least ver 8. Well DUH!! I have ver 11 and it still won't load.
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Quoting 343. yoboi:



yanto kama memick.....


Que?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
343. yoboi
Quoting 335. daddyjames:


de nada



yanto kama memick.....
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Quoting 336. FOREX:


Why is it they wouldn't mention what they think will become of the system in terms of strength and track?



They do in the discussion

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N89W. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS KEEPING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 86W-88W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 334. YUCATANCHICXULUB:



jajaja, si lo entendi despues. gracias por la ayuda.


thanks for help me..



the weather worse here in Merida, Yucatan, it's raining .


el tiempo peor aquí en Mérida, Yucatán, llueve .
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SW Caribbean bears watching.

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Quoting 332. HurricaneAndre:
A.


D Poof
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 21 2013 - 12Z WED SEP 25 2013

BASELINE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB GRAPHICS WERE A BLEND
OF THE 18/00Z ECENS GEFS AND NAEFS...WITH SOME OF THE
SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS AND TIMING DIFFERENCES SIDING WITH THE
18/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF.

FORECAST REASONING AND PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL FROM
24 HOURS AGO. THE DETERMINISTIC UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE THE FAR
WESTERN OUTLIERS WITH A 'YET-TO-EVOLVE' DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE (DAYS 3-5). THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED
YESTERDAY AND THE UPCOMING WPC/NHC CONFERENCE CALL SHOULD FIRM UP
SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE DETAILS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 18/00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACT
WITH A DECAYING...FRACTURED MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (DAY4)

AND THE 18/00Z GFS/ECMWF LOOKED VERY REASONABLE WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL H5 CENTER TRANSPOSING ITSELF ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING NORTHEAST-BOUND ALONG THIS 'FRONT'. THE DAY5-6 SURFACE
GRAPHICS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR A 'SLOWDOWN' OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE FRONT. THIS IMPLIES THE FRONT WILL NOT SURGE THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DOES MOVE
OFFSHORE NORTH OF 40N...THEN RETURNS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AROUND DAY 6.
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337. FOREX
Quoting 336. FOREX:


Why is it they wouldn't mention what they think will become of the system in terms of strength and track once it is a cyclone?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1337
336. FOREX
Quoting 333. SFLWeatherman:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.


Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1337
Quoting 334. YUCATANCHICXULUB:



jajaja, si lo entendi despues. gracias por la ayuda.


thanks for help me..


de nada
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 331. daddyjames:


GOM = El Golfo de México



jajaja, si lo entendi despues. gracias por la ayuda.


thanks for help me..
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
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Quoting 316. FOREX:
POLL:

95L will

A. Become a hurricane
B. Become a tropical storm
C. Become a Dorian
A.
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Quoting 328. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


Hi, Can you explain to me to that they refer with GOM or his meaning?


GOM = El Golfo de Mexico

y BOC = Bahia de Campeche
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
That


Low


Will


Not


Move
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Quoting 323. weathermanwannabe:
I can't get the Westernmost Cuban Doppler loop to load from this site (off of Google Chrome) but here is the working link for the Cuban Island radar mosaic to keep an eye on the circulation pattern of 95L as is develops near the Yucatan later in the weekend:

Link


Since 95L is already in the GOM, would not Mexican radar be more appropriate? Which shows little to nothing right now over water.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 319. daddyjames:


Re: Esta mañana - divertido de ver sin embargo. Discutir acerca de lo que va a volcar (un poco) de lluvia en Florida. Tonto, no era ella. Sí, undersand la preocupación, pero tendría que ser un evento de lluvia significativa en Cuenca Lago / Kissimmee que se produce durante un período muy corto de tiempo - que no se prevé así de antemano. O eso, o de otra tormenta que induce "aumento" en el lago. El dique tiene que ser fijo, y mejor temprano que tarde - o de lo contrario este se cumplirá: (





Hi, Can you explain to me to that they refer with GOM or his meaning?
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327. FOREX
Quoting 326. redwagon:


Our window is almost closed, and 95L is not our storm. May not be *anybody's* storm... may just split up and dissipate. I'm lookin for rainmakers...if'n that's OK.


Yes, I'm beginning to think 95L will not form into a cyclone at all.
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Quoting 320. RitaEvac:
We've got a gyro spinning in the GOM, all attention please


Our window is almost closed, and 95L is not our storm. May not be *anybody's* storm... may just split up and dissipate. I'm lookin for rainmakers...if'n that's OK.
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Yeah, if iOS7 would download properly and not give me error messages that would be great.

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I can't get the Westernmost Cuban Doppler loop to load from this site (off of Google Chrome) but here is the working link for the Cuban Island radar mosaic to keep an eye on the circulation pattern of 95L as is develops near the Yucatan later in the weekend:

Link
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Quoting 315. guygee:
On a related note, here is an article from the "far left-wing group" (to borrow a phrase) CounterPunch mostly praising the memory of Republican congressman Clay Shaw. All politicians have to play the game, but apparently Shaw was a rebel in his party the likes of which are now extinct. The story closes,

"In 2006 I wrote to a colleague, “I’ve seen Clay Shaw at work in federal court, defying Jeb Bush on the Everglades and it was a sight to behold. He deserves our gratitude: I can’t think of another Republican from Florida who has taken as many real risks as Shaw in defense of the Everglades.” That November Congressman Clay Shaw was defeated by a Democrat who received campaign finance support from Big Sugar. While Shaw died after a long battle with lung cancer, the battle he will be best remembered for, goes on."

Alan Farago is president of Friends of the Everglades.


Some old time Floridians were out for what was best for Florida, regardless of party. Doesn't seem to be in effect at the moment. At least, not on display in the media.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Good Morning Class! 95L Is still with us.

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We've got a gyro spinning in the GOM, all attention please
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Quoting 312. moonlightcowboy:


I had three different versions, grabbed the wrong one. Could care less whether anyone comments. I do care that people read. This event, another event or two in the next week, it could definitely add some concerns there, hence the post.

What happened this morning, everyone have razor blades instead of eggs and coffee? LOL. Enjoy!


Re: this morning - fun to watch though. Quibbling over what will dump (a little) rain in Florida. Silly, wasn't it.

Yeah, undersand the concern, but it would have to be a significant rain event over Lake/Kissimmee River basin that occurs over a very short period of time - that is not forecast well out in advance. Either that, or another storm that induces "surge" in the Lake.

The dike does have to be fixed, and better sooner than later - or otherwise this will come to pass :(
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 313. bappit:

When I see racing clouds my initial suspects are upper level winds (cirrus) and downdrafts (arc clouds). Then comes inflow towards lines of convergence with convection. Looking at CIMSS, there is a zone of subsidence NW of the Yucatan, and I think those nicely curved clouds out in the GOM are not banding but arc clouds. There is a line of convergence to the southeast of the Yucatan that seems to be drawing low level clouds towards it. CIMSS does not indicate convergence with 95L at the moment. I think that subsident area (shows up as dry air on water vapor) will hamper 95L for the time being.




Panama low startin to raise a racket. This is where/how Carla formed... tracked ALL the way up.
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Nicely shaped Usagi.


GFS forecast track apparently shifted further south, avoiding landfall at/near Hong Kong.
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316. FOREX
POLL:

95L will

A. Become a hurricane
B. Become a tropical storm
C. Become a Dorian
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1337
Quoting 248. indianrivguy:


No, they actually stopped discharging into the St. Lucie yesterday from Okeechobee Lake.. we do however, have some 4982 cubic feet per second entering our estuary from our own watershed.. 37265 gallons per second... 2.2 + million a minute, close to 2.8 BILLION per day.. WAY too much.
On a related note, here is an article from the "far left-wing group" (to borrow a phrase) CounterPunch mostly praising the memory of Republican congressman Clay Shaw. All politicians have to play the game, but apparently Shaw was a rebel in his party the likes of which are now extinct. The story closes,

"In 2006 I wrote to a colleague, “I’ve seen Clay Shaw at work in federal court, defying Jeb Bush on the Everglades and it was a sight to behold. He deserves our gratitude: I can’t think of another Republican from Florida who has taken as many real risks as Shaw in defense of the Everglades.” That November Congressman Clay Shaw was defeated by a Democrat who received campaign finance support from Big Sugar. While Shaw died after a long battle with lung cancer, the battle he will be best remembered for, goes on."

Alan Farago is president of Friends of the Everglades.
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watch out for them doors
they can mess ya up big time



they can mess you up posteriorly......ta da da boom!


now.....yesterday...i made the mistake of mentioning that there was a chance...oh 95l could make it's way eastward and was castigated soundly....not to worry though...today's special at the waffle house...crow....cartoon crows if pictures are added of course...whew...don't need another 3 minute time out
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Quoting 284. daddyjames:


Thanks Bap - Perhaps that was what was racing into the region earlier today on the loops?

When I see racing clouds my initial suspects are upper level winds (cirrus) and downdrafts (arc clouds). Then comes inflow towards lines of convergence with convection. Looking at CIMSS, there is a zone of subsidence NW of the Yucatan, and I think those nicely curved clouds out in the GOM are not banding but arc clouds. There is a line of convergence to the southeast of the Yucatan that seems to be drawing low level clouds towards it. CIMSS does not indicate convergence with 95L at the moment. I think that subsident area (shows up as dry air on water vapor) will hamper 95L for the time being.
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Quoting 299. daddyjames:


making it bigger, ain't necessarily gonna make us want to comment, although it does help those with older eyes ;)


I had three different versions, grabbed the wrong one (fixed). Could care less whether anyone comments. I do care that people read. This event, another event or two in the next week or so, and it could definitely add some concerns there, hence the post.

What happened this morning, everyone have razor blades instead of eggs and coffee? LOL. Enjoy!
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174 hours CMC

Cape verde system






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Now for a visible of my favorite storm of 2013 so far.



Humberto, I still wuv you.
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12N 51W ???? SMALL CYCLONIC TURNING
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
ALOT of rain coming for florida...........
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Quoting 301. hydrus:
If Ingrid had not stirred the bay up so much, this would probably intensify rapidly..It still might.


The circulation is so large, it'll take some time winding up. SSTs are warm enough - Ingrid had little effect
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Quoting 289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya this thing gonna be around for a bit as a stall and eventually pull ne after day 7 all the while feeding vapour across ne ward and a frontal area draped across just north of gulf
If Ingrid had not stirred the bay up so much, this would probably intensify rapidly..It still might.
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Quoting 278. moonlightcowboy:
My cliffnote takeaways from Doc's blog on Lake Okeechobee on August 24th.





making it bigger, ain't necessarily gonna make us want to comment, although it does help those with older eyes ;)

On a serious note: Water Management there is so quick to dump water out of the Lake O' at the slightest indication of any potential threat that it would have to be something quick and/or unforseen (like the amount dumped over CO recently). Not to minimize that something does need to be done.

In the past, reactions to predicted storm paths/rainfall events have contributed to water shortages in the region at later dates.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.