Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 378. ncstorm:
12z HWRF

Can you say?......

Opal
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398. IKE

Quoting hurricanehanna:


wind sheer looks like it is relaxing near 95L...could see it trying to move off the Yucatan soon...imo
It's already off shore. You can see the center because it's near void of clouds. Appears to be moving west to WNW.
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Quoting 392. WalkingInTheSun:
This is an amazing photo -- nobody hurt, too, though I'd bet some wet their pants! More info can be seen on FB site for Tim Heller, ABC 13 Weather.   https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather?fref=ts 
 

whoa!
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That elongated ULL/Tutt cell (below) stretching from the Yucatan to Florida is going to continue to enhance convection on the Eastern side of 95L and the Yucatan and Western Cuba/Cayman Islands are going to get the worst of it over the next 48-72 hours regardless of development.

Link

At the surface, note where the maximum surface vorticity is presently located (right over the Yucatan Peninsula) slowly moving W-NW:

Link

Between that and the visible loops, it seems pretty obvious that the low is going to attempt to consolidate due West of the Yucatan in the Bay of Campeche over the next 48. Also, in looking at the well defined broad circulation on the vis-loops over the Yucatan, we might have a TD down there as early as sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening if the current organization trend continues and the low is able to draw some that displaced convection over land at the moment into the Bay along with it .

If that comes to pass, Dr. Master's position that the trof much further to the North might not pick it up is a real possibility.
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Quoting 380. WalkingInTheSun:

 


wind sheer looks like it is relaxing near 95L...could see it trying to move off the Yucatan soon...imo
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Glad to see that the northern radar is working again.



Been down for weeks...
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393. VR46L
Quoting 365. bryanfromkyleTX:


Dry air... uggggg, no dust


Oops Its very dry air !
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This is an amazing photo -- nobody hurt, too, though I'd bet some wet their pants! More info can be seen on FB site for Tim Heller, ABC 13 Weather.   https://www.facebook.com/HellerWeather?fref=ts  It shows lightning lighting up a tree next to the stands at a football game.
 
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391. SLU
Look at the boiling hot water up north.

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390. VR46L
Quoting 373. mitthbevnuruodo:


I had been wondering (along with others I saw discussing it inbetween the arguements LOL) if it would regenerate. Especially with how warm the waters would be if it managed to skirt the coast like it has.


I missed the arguments today ! Better off for it ..

Just getting into really warm water



and seems to be sealed off from the major dust
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Manuel has organized considerably since yesterday. In fact, it now has an appearance of a minimal hurricane.

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Hey guys new tropical low forms in the SW Caribbean not bad in terms of convection and could becomes a storms as well


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18z Best Track for 95L.

AL, 95, 2013091818, , BEST, 0, 205N, 912W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
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Quoting 379. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looks like models give Manual a short lifespan...maybe shove some moisture over to Texas as it dissipates?



Nice.
Maybe a fall cold front coming down & utilizing moisture left over from Ingrid & Manuel to rain on Texas quite well -- some strong rains expected later this week, anyway....after a very long time w/out.
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Quoting 379. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Looks like models give Manual a short lifespan...maybe shove some moisture over to Texas as it dissipates?



Yup. combine with moisture from ingrid and the front moving through, it appears as if it'll be wet in our neck o' the woods.

predicted 24 hour accumulation into Saturday

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
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Quoting 359. ILwthrfan:
Manuel is very impressive looking right now on radar, wonder just how close this is to hurricane status?



Here is a site with all of Mexico's Radars.
I didn't even know that he was still with us. I thought that he was dead LOL.
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 57m

GFS and Canadian both take energy from 95L northeast and form autumn noreaster for easter coast early nxt wk
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WPC surface maps days 3-7

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Looks like models give Manual a short lifespan...maybe shove some moisture over to Texas as it dissipates?

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12z HWRF
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377. beell

WPC Surface Progs. Day 3, 5, 7 (Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday).
(click for full image)


:)
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Quoting 361. ProphetessofDoom:


Maybe we should stop complaining about the lack of strong systems and focus more upon the level of persistence we've seen this year. I don't remember ever having a season where we watched so many different storms who have been RIP'ed come back from the dead. I honestly would like to know the science behind this!


In fact, these small storms like him call, have caused more damages here in Mexico that any other great storm.
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They must have really been bored during the 2009 hurricane season.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 341. YUCATANCHICXULUB:



the weather worse here in Merida, Yucatan, it's raining .


el tiempo peor aquí en Mérida, Yucatán, llueve .
Es tiempo normal por septiembre en Merida?
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Quoting 354. VR46L:


He is some storm Brutal and has been fighting all the known killers of storms and yet he is still around .


I had been wondering (along with others I saw discussing it inbetween the arguements LOL) if it would regenerate. Especially with how warm the waters would be if it managed to skirt the coast like it has.
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Quoting 355. LAbonbon:


I believe that's the low that redwagon's been eyeing this morning.


And got reprimanded by a fellow drought-stricken Texan! :)
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Quoting 366. daddyjames:


Link for Mexican radar. Very slow to load today.


Excellent.......Thanks.
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Looks like a change of seasons is in the works.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...TYPICAL OF EARLY AUTUMN...WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
STATES WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER WEATHER TODAY...THEN A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER AND FEWER LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING COOLING AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN THE ALTERNATING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AUTUMN
BEGINS THIS SUNDAY...SEPTEMBER 22 AT 144 PM PDT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRATUS COVERED MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING BUT
WAS CLEARING FASTER THAN TUE MORNING. THE INVERSION BASE HAD RISEN
TO AROUND 2200-2400 FT MSL BASED ON AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM SAN/SNA.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED IN SOME MTN/DESERT AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SAN
GORGONIO PASS WHERE WHITE WATER RAWS HAD A RECENT GUST OF 40 MPH.
WITH THE INVERSION STRENGTH AROUND 8 DEG C...AND WEAKENING DUE TO
COOLING ALOFT...EXPECT MOST AREAS...IF NOT ALL AREAS...TO CLEAR BY
NOON...IF NOT BEFORE. NOTE THAT HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW IN PARTS OF
THE MTNS/DESERTS TODAY...BELOW 10 PERCENT LOCALLY...THOUGH WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS THE TEMPERATURE/PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN...SO WE SHOULD MOSTLY STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE MTNS/DESERTS
THU.

LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WITH
THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH OVER SO-CAL GRADUALLY LIFTING TONIGHT.
WITH HEIGHT RISES...THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD LOWER...SO ONLY FAR W
AND S PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE SHOULD HAVE STRATUS TONIGHT/EARLY
THU. WITH THE MARINE INVERSION LOWER...THE VALLEYS SHOULD SEE THE
GREATEST WARMING THU...BY ABOUT 5 DEG F...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS
HAVING 1-3 DEG F WARMING. WITH THE WESTERLIES IN PLACE...WE WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN RIDGING AND TROUGHING FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND
PROBABLY BEYOND...SO AFTER THE WARMER RIDGE THU INTO FRI...THE NEXT
TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US OVER THE
WEEKEND AND BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS. WITH THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT INCREASING AGAIN
BETWEEN THE VALLEYS AND THE DESERTS...AND ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENING...IT SHOULD BE WINDY AROUND SATURDAY IN THE
MTNS/DESERTS. THE WESTERLIES WILL BRING ANOTHER TROUGH AROUND TUE TO
THE WEST COAST FOR MORE COOLER WEATHER AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER.

Yesterday's Hi was 88 and Lo this morning of 52 and low humidity, currently:

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA (SSSSD)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 18 Sep 11:14 am (PDT)
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 18 Sep 11:00 am PDT (PDT)
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
18 Sep 11:00 am PDT 76 23 14 NW 7G11 OK
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369. VR46L
Quoting 361. ProphetessofDoom:


Maybe we should stop complaining about the lack of strong systems and focus more upon the level of persistence we've seen this year. I don't remember ever having a season where we watched so many different storms who have been RIP'ed come back from the dead. I honestly would like to know the science behind this!


I will be interested in reading the post season assessment .. has been a very strange season .
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I suspect 95L to be relocating back over the eastern Yucatan region & channel area, which might make for a GOM storm rather than a BOC scenario.

If so, I might expect it all to migrate up to the central to East GOM for landfall, perhaps from MS to FL -- Florida, watch it closely.
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Quoting 203. SFLWeatherman:
Look at Manuel




The Gulf of California does have very warm waters so it's no surprise.
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Quoting 349. weathermanwannabe:


Thanks; forgot about the Mexican radar site....That is the better one down the road.

Could you post the link?............Thanks.


Link for Mexican radar. Very slow to load today.
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Quoting 357. VR46L:
I really don't recall seeing so much dust ever ..



Dry air... uggggg, no dust
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Quoting 360. VR46L:
I like this Image



nice colors...Gro used to show these :(
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Quoting 350. WxGeekVA:
Manuel strengthened quickly. Wow.





1961 was also a *very* late season. B storm - Betsy - formed 9/2.
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Quoting 358. WalkingInTheSun:


GOM = Golfo de México
BOC = Bahía de Campeche



thanks.
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Quoting 354. VR46L:


He is some storm Brutal and has been fighting all the known killers of storms and yet he is still around .


Maybe we should stop complaining about the lack of strong systems and focus more upon the level of persistence we've seen this year. I don't remember ever having a season where we watched so many different storms who have been RIP'ed come back from the dead. I honestly would like to know the science behind this!
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360. VR46L
I like this Image

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Manuel is very impressive looking right now on radar, wonder just how close this is to hurricane status?



Here is a site with all of Mexico's Radars.
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Quoting 328. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


Hi, Can you explain to me to that they refer with GOM or his meaning?


GOM = Gulf of Mexico
BOC = Bay of Campeche
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357. VR46L
I really don't recall seeing so much dust ever ..

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Now if I believe that this going out to the GOM. Campeche now.




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Quoting 347. hurricanehanna:


what is that blob near Costa Rica ??


I believe that's the low that redwagon's been eyeing this morning.
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354. VR46L
Quoting 350. WxGeekVA:
Manuel strengthened quickly. Wow.



He is some storm Brutal and has been fighting all the known killers of storms and yet he is still around .
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Quoting 340. stormpetrol:


SW Caribbean bears watching.



Hard to tell if there's any spin to it but it sure has blossomed from a small blob a few hours ago. Ascat suggests a center.
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Meanwhile, out on Colorado's eastern plains...


Colorado's richest oil field -- the Denver-Julesburg Basin -- is buried in floodwaters, raising operational and environmental concerns, as state and industry officials work to get a handle on the problem.

Thousands of wells and operating sites have been affected -- some remain in rushing waters, officials said.

"The scale is unprecedented," said Mike King, executive director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources. "We will have to deal with environmental contamination from whatever source."

Any pollution from oil fields likely will be mixed with a stew of agricultural pesticides, sewage, gasoline from service stations and other contaminants, King said.


Source:denverpost.com


This doesn't look good...



Neither does this...



Or this...



OK, just one more...



More here.
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Apparently, now if this one going out to the GOM.
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Manuel strengthened quickly. Wow.

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Quoting 329. daddyjames:


Since 95L is already in the GOM, would not Mexican radar be more appropriate? Which shows little to nothing right now over water.



Thanks; forgot about the Mexican radar site....That is the better one down the road.

Could you post the link?............Thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.