Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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This should clear everything up. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013


LOW PRES ALONG A TROUGH HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST
W OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS
MAINLY OVER LAND AND IS POORLY ORGANIZED. REGARDLESS...FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE S CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING THE
APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A LATE
MORNING ALTIMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED 7-10 FT SEAS OVER THIS SAME
AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WNW DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREAFTER A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH THE LOW WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE LOW MAY
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THEN TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OR A
PORTION OF THE ENERGY MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WHILE A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF IT. FOR NOW THE
LATTER SCENARIO WAS FOLLOWED IN COORDINATION WITH THE HURRICANE
SPECIALIST UNIT AND WPC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN MAINLY THE W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.
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That's why they are called prediction. A prediction is never set in stone JMO


ahem....for the 2nd time....just a pet peeve of mine...they're called forecasts...and are predicated on the information at the time...if they are correct for the given information...then even if a forecast doesn't pan out...it's still correct...that's what is missed by many...now on this site...most are just as you say...predictions....it's a total different skill level
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12z Euro











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Disturbed area 900 miles east of lesser Antilles getting more defined.
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Levi's latest update and the other possibilities give a boring scenario for 95L


yes he does....however...i'm gonna step out on a limb and say cat 5 on tampa....won't verify..but it makes for some excitement
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Quoting 438. ricderr:
I guess even the "wannabees" can manage to NOT screw up a yearly TS-weather forecast like the pros, hmm?


i'd like to shake the hand of the weatherweenie who predicted the outcome of this year...but i know my hand would be hanging


That's why they are called prediction. A prediction is never set in stone JMO
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Levi's latest update and the other possibilities give a boring scenario for 95L

Bash me if you want, but I just want to see some REAL ACTION PEOPLE!! Such as a decent hurricane in the middle of the Gulf. It would be so much fun.

(alright, I'm getting prepared for the lecture that this could destroy my house and ruin my life or other people's, but I know, I know...)
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Quoting 430. WalkingInTheSun:


Trajectory seems more on que to be a central GOM storm perhaps. Does it seem that way to anyone else?
It seems to be somehow more "spidey-sense tingling" than the 95L, for some reason.
Steering looks more northerly so central GOM seems about right.
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He does have a point. The blog can be entertaining at times.

at times?...all the time...and even better when a few here start drinking
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I guess even the "wannabees" can manage to NOT screw up a yearly TS-weather forecast like the pros, hmm?


i'd like to shake the hand of the weatherweenie who predicted the outcome of this year...but i know my hand would be hanging
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ahem...cough cough...this is for educational purposes...cough cough...not for entertainment....cough...sorry....throat bothering me


He does have a point. The blog can be entertaining at times.
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The final piece of the short-term puzzle for 95L; as noted by a few Bloggers, the sheer tendency where the disturbance/low is headed is falling, to as low as 10-, per the latest CIMMS chart:

Link

We could see some fairly rapid consolidation into a TD by tomorrow if this sheer forecast verifies.
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I hardly ever post but I come on here for entertainment purposes only and the excellent maps and graphics.But the best part of all is watching the wannabe weather gurus making their predictions. Im sure is fun guessing where a storm might go. I come here for the entertainment but get my forcast from the NHC. The professionals. Even a blind squirrel can find an acorn sometimes. So keep on guessing. Makes for good entertainment. lol


ahem...cough cough...this is for educational purposes...cough cough...not for entertainment....cough...sorry....throat bothering me
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Quoting 429. moonlightcowboy:



It could possibly make a pass right thru that gas station!!
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Quoting 428. blueyedbiker:
I hardly ever post but I come on here for entertainment purposes only and the excellent maps and graphics.But the best part of all is watching the wannabe weather gurus making their predictions. Im sure is fun guessing where a storm might go. I come here for the entertainment but get my forcast from the NHC. The professionals. Even a blind squirrel can find an acorn sometimes. So keep on guessing. Makes for good entertainment. lol


I guess even the "wannabees" can manage to NOT screw up a yearly TS-weather forecast like the pros, hmm?

Btw, between all the input from everyone on this site, I think it tends to cover the bases rather nicely, lots of info about what could or couldn't happen & why -- things often not covered by the "pros"...until they are explaining just WHY what they said...did not happen. Here, people can make up their own minds with the knowledge brought forth & the facts assembled.

The pros often have to be concise & stick a nail in a forecast & SAY something specific -- not any, "Well, it could do this or that or this other thing,"...all depending on these multiple variables (which people often don't care about or want to watch out about over the next few days).
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EP, 13, 2013091818, , BEST, 0, 237N, 1080W, 50, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1006, 90, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MANUEL, M,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting 388. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys new tropical low forms in the SW Caribbean not bad in terms of convection and could becomes a storms as well




Trajectory seems more on que to be a central GOM storm perhaps. Does it seem that way to anyone else?
It seems to be somehow more "spidey-sense tingling" than the 95L, for some reason.
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I hardly ever post but I come on here for entertainment purposes only and the excellent maps and graphics.But the best part of all is watching the wannabe weather gurus making their predictions. Im sure is fun guessing where a storm might go. I come here for the entertainment but get my forcast from the NHC. The professionals. Even a blind squirrel can find an acorn sometimes. So keep on guessing. Makes for good entertainment. lol
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Hurricane watches in effect for MANUEL.

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Circus coming? Loopty loops?

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NHC had a typo:

...MANUEL QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO...
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18z Best Track for Usapi up to 90kts.

17W USAGI 130918 1800 17.2N 128.6E WPAC 90 956
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13267
Quoting 395. hurricanehanna:


wind sheer looks like it is relaxing near 95L...could see it trying to move off the Yucatan soon...imo


You got that right -- my bad: while it was being blocked or hindered by the shear, it really seemed to be relocating to the East, I thought. Yeah, it seems to have "popped out" now. That was the term my young step-bro used to have for the transformation of Mr. Banner into the Hulk, lol. "Oh no, he's going to 'pop out' !"
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422. JRRP


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419. moonlightcowboy


kewl..thanks :)
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Quoting 398. IKE:

It's already off shore. You can see the center because it's near void of clouds. Appears to be moving west to WNW.
That what you said with Ingrid ?
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Quoting 412. hurricanehanna:


Ok Moonlight...what image is this showing ? I don't recall this one...


AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Passive Microwave Imagery (PMI) from low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites is routinely used in tropical cyclone analyses and forecast because several PMI channels can provide unique information about the location and organization of deep convection, liquid water, rainfall etc. that is often obscured by high clouds and cirrus in conventional Infrared (IR) and water vapor (WV) imagery. Since the late 1980's PMI in the 85-91 GHz range has been used to determine the location and organization of deep convective elements, even through the thick cirrus often associated with developing TCs.
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Usagi's eye is covered up now.

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Quoting 413. moonlightcowboy:



 Okayyy, there she goes,....and seems to be popping that spiral banding back into the picture again, too -- faintly can see the whirl in the clouds starting back up. 
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Quoting 413. moonlightcowboy:




Impressive for an invest.
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Quoting 404. CaribBoy:
Still waiting


Donations to the rain fund are at $ 177.00 :)
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Quoting 408. stormpetrol:
Is 95L splitting in two?
maybe!!
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Quoting 403. moonlightcowboy:


Ok Moonlight...what image is this showing ? I don't recall this one...I mean is it moisture, wind ??? my eyes can't read small print ;)
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Not quite there yet but note current conditions at the Central Bay of Campeche Bouy:

Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.203N 94W
Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2013 17:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (40°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (68°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F


Winds already gusting to 21 knots out of the NE and pressures falling................

It would only take some convection near a well-defined and consolidated COC and a little more wind speed to make TD status by tomorrow IMHO.

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Quoting 398. IKE:

It's already off shore. You can see the center because it's near void of clouds. Appears to be moving west to WNW.


my bad...I thought the center was still over land...thanks Ike
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Quoting 307. LargoFl:
ALOT of rain coming for florida...........

Lake Okeechobee is already above 15.5 feet.
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Is 95L splitting in two?
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The U.S. severe weather downturn in 2013 in one map
Washington Post, by Jason Samenow, Published: September 17 at 3:59 pm
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Quoting 388. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys new tropical low forms in the SW Caribbean not bad in terms of convection and could becomes a storms as well




It's a race for sure to get that guy to TX. I like how it looks to maybe miss a lot of landmass along the journey.
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I love Great Lakes mesolows

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Still waiting
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Quoting 381. ncstorm:
WPC surface maps days 3-7




I wonder if CV season is really, truly dead, the way things have been springing back to life this season.
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Stormy Looking in Mazatlan Mexico

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400. VR46L
Quoting 391. SLU:
Look at the boiling hot water up north.



Absolutely ... Some of those temps are positively boiling at 16°C- 20°C

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Quoting 378. ncstorm:
12z HWRF

Can you say?......

Opal
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.