Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1349. LargoFl
Nam for sunday...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134


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Good morning all...Finally a morning without rain in Lake Worth/West Palm...

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1346. LargoFl
I just hope that ECMF model for the 30-35 mph winds doesnt happen..we get 6-8 inches of rain and get those winds..i worry about the tree's in that soaking wet ground....next week might get interesting around here.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1345. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
Wow.

2013SEP19 103200 7.4 884.7 +1.9 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 3.97 -80.95 EYE 19 IR 71.3 18.08 -127.44 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2
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1343. MahFL
The shear has gone down quite a bit in the Bay of Campeche.
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1342. LargoFl
Quoting 1336. MRCYCLOGENESIS:
Looks like i better start building my ark here in Clearwater looking at the latest model runs!
yes i remember the gfs precip run from oh several days ago where it was dropping almost a foot of rain in some area's of central florida..hope that doesnt come true.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1341. barbamz

The circulation in the BOC is now very prominent in the loop of TPW (Total precipital water). Click to enlarge.

Still, WPAC with Usagi and the next one behind is quite another league:
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1340. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED
BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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1339. LargoFl
Quoting 1338. MRCYCLOGENESIS:



Those weekend rain chances may be adjusted in the upcoming days!!!
yes im thinking the same thing too.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
Quoting 1333. LargoFl:
7-day for the tampa bay area.................



Those weekend rain chances may be adjusted in the upcoming days!!!
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1337. Torito
My opinion of the 2013 hurricane season sometimes...

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
Looks like i better start building my ark here in Clearwater looking at the latest model runs!
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1335. LargoFl
Good for you Texas..you NEED this...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1334. Torito
Usagi:

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1333. LargoFl
7-day for the tampa bay area.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
The WPAC never seems to disappoint. Winds are easily near 140kts.

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1331. SLU
Humberto's second coming was a complete bust.

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Quoting 1299. MAweatherboy1:
What a storm. Probably at or near Cat 5 intensity based off satellite estimates. The relative regularity with which the West Pacific can produce storms like this is scary.



It'll probably perform an EWRC at some point starting within the next 24 hours, probably sooner, due to the rather tight inner core shown by microwave imagery. Hopefully that will weaken it some.
Now why can't we have storms like that in the Atlantic...
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Quoting 1325. LAbonbon:


That caught my eye as well. I've never been a fan of waffles, but I loooove cornbread. Especially when it's really moist, with whole/partial kernels. Mmmm mmmm! If that's what she's talking about, I'd consider giving waffles another try :P



Yep. Also with the whole kernel corn put some sauteed onions, jalapenos, cheese, and some ground beef in with it. Makes for a fine meal.
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1326. LargoFl
HMM ECMF model has 30-35 mph winds across central florida tues-wens..add to that very heavy rains..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
Quoting 1311. HimacaneBrees:



What are "corn waffles"? Is that cornbread from a waffle maker? Throw in a little chicken fried venison with all of that and I'm on my way!!!!


That caught my eye as well. I've never been a fan of waffles, but I loooove cornbread. Especially when it's really moist, with whole/partial kernels. Mmmm mmmm! If that's what she's talking about, I'd consider giving waffles another try :P
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Quoting 1321. HimacaneBrees:
Too many hurricanes - GW to blame
Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.



(Unless it's Bush.)
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And so it begins...again...
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Too many hurricanes - GW to blame
Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.
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1320. LargoFl
IF the GFS precip verifies,might be good news for texas..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1319. K8eCane
Quoting 1318. K8eCane:



Even the presence of space vehicles has caused altering, including satellites



THERE. I took the bait
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1318. K8eCane
Quoting 1315. Neapolitan:
No, you can't. And no one ever has. And no one ever will. But that wasn't my point.Again, that wasn't my point. My point--and, far more importantly, the point expressed by a large and growing number of climate scientists--is that, while this year's relative lack of TC activity can't be laid at the feet of climate change, neither can anyone claim that climate change hasn't had any effect. Period. The fact of the matter is that the entire atmosphere has been altered in ways subtle and not-so-subtle, and each and every weather event is taking place in that altered atmosphere. And while some may believe or wish otherwise, that point is undeniable.



Even the presence of space vehicles has caused altering, including satellites
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1317. VR46L
Quoting 1314. LAbonbon:


StAugustine - I was just thinking that exact thought. It won't, if people don't take the bait. Sadly, I'm sure someone will...



And it will be very soon too ...
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Quoting 781. FunnelVortex:


You can not blame one anomalous year on GW.
No, you can't. And no one ever has. And no one ever will. But that wasn't my point.
Quoting 785. KoritheMan:


I wouldn't claim it with certainty, but I don't think the lack of tropical cyclone activity on Earth this year has anything to do with climate change. It's probably just a global circulation pattern. We've observed this in other years as well, like 1977.

If it happens more often than not, we might have an argument. But nobody knows how climate change affects the planet just yet, aside from the very bare basics.
Again, that wasn't my point. My point--and, far more importantly, the point expressed by a large and growing number of climate scientists--is that, while this year's relative lack of TC activity can't be laid at the feet of climate change, neither can anyone claim that climate change hasn't had any effect. Period. The fact of the matter is that the entire atmosphere has been altered in ways subtle and not-so-subtle, and each and every weather event is taking place in that altered atmosphere. And while some may believe or wish otherwise, that point is undeniable.
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Quoting 1310. StAugustineFL:


Dude! The blog had a good vibe going sharing information on the tropics. I hope that post doesn't derail the conversation.


StAugustine - I was just thinking that exact thought. It won't, if people don't take the bait. Sadly, I'm sure someone will...

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1313. LargoFl
So from reading all the nws discussions,my guess is comes sun-mon-tues of next week rainfall totals just might get impressive in central florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1312. K8eCane
everytime I think the season is surely over my mind says * HAZEL*
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Quoting 1295. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An even warmer 76 degrees already this morning, with a high of 92 expected, so a 'little' cooler. A chance of rain this afternoon, but a 70% chance tomorrow. We can only hope...

I see Manuel is back to a hurricane, and the poor people of Tampico can't get a break. :(

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, bacon and egg grilled cheese, egg & cheese quesadillas, French toast roll-ups, thick slices honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!



What are "corn waffles"? Is that cornbread from a waffle maker? Throw in a little chicken fried venison with all of that and I'm on my way!!!!
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Quoting 1307. trunkmonkey:
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Dude! The blog had a good vibe going sharing information on the tropics. I hope that post doesn't derail the conversation.
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1309. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE CAPE. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW VISIBILITY
WILL ALSO OCCUR.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW LOCATIONS PRIMARILY IN BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE
AND MARTIN COUNTIES MAY SEE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO OR THREE INCHES...CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES. IN ADDITION...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH SURF WHICH CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE
TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. CHECK WITH OCEAN RESCUE PERSONNEL ABOUT
THE LOCAL SURF DANGERS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 35
KNOTS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING AND PUSHING
WESTWARDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER THE LARGER INLAND LAKES.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THIS WEEKEND.

DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE LOWER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

KELLY
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1308. LargoFl
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACHES, SLIGHT RISK BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST AND A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING.

FLOODING: ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POISED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top climate scientists admit global warming forecasts were wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can you believe this, the top 50 scientists agree on this one!





A leaked draft of a report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is understood to concede that the computer predictions for global warming and the effects of carbon emissions have been proved to be inaccurate.

The report, to be published later this month, is a six year assessment which is seen as the gospel of climate science and is cited to justify fuel taxes and subsidies for renewable energy.

The “summary for policymakers” of the report, seen by the Mail on Sunday, states that the world is warming at a rate of 0.12C per decade since 1951, compared to a prediction of 0.13C per decade in their last assessment published in 2007.

Other admission in the latest document include that forecast computers may not have taken enough notice of natural variability in the climate, therefore exaggerating the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures.

The governments which fund the IPCC have tabled 1,800 questions in relation to the report.
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One of the central issues is believed to be why the IPCC failed to account for the “pause” in global warming, which they admit that they did not predict in their computer models. Since 1997, world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase.

The summary also shows that scientist have now discovered that between 950 and 1250 AD, before the Industrial Revolution, parts of the world were as warm for decades at a time as they are now.

Despite a 2012 draft stating that the world is at it’s warmest for 1,300 years, the latest document states: “'Surface temperature reconstructions show multi-decadal intervals during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th Century.”

The 2007 report included predictions of a decline in Antarctic sea ice, but the latest document does not explain why this year it is at a record high.

The 2013 report states: “'Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, in contrast to the small increasing trend in observations ...

“There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent.'

The 2007 forecast for more intense hurricanes has also been ignored in the new document after this year was one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history.

One of the report's authors, Professor Myles Allen, the director of Oxford University's Climate Research Network, has said that people should not look to the IPCC for a “bible” on climate change.

Professor Allen, who admits “we need to look very carefully about what the IPCC does in future”, said that he could not comment on the report as it was still considered to be in its draft stages.

However, he added: “It is a complete fantasy to think that you can compile an infallible or approximately infallible report, that is just not how science works.

“It is not a bible, it is a scientific review, an assessment of the literature. Frankly both sides are seriously confused on how science works - the critics of the IPCC and the environmentalists who credit the IPCC as if it is the gospel."

Scientist were constantly revising their research to account for new data, he said.

Despite the uncertainties and contradictions, the IPCC insists that it is more confident than ever – 95 per cent certain - that global warming is mainly human’s fault.

Next week 40 of the 250 authors who contributed to the report and representatives of most of the 195 governments that fund the IPCC will hold a meeting in Stockholm to discuss the finding to discuss any issues ahead of the publication. The body has insisted that this is not a crisis meeting but a pre-planned discussion.
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1306. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ON SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39134
1305. VR46L
Quoting 1304. LAbonbon:


So long, it's been good to know you


Actually I was thinking of this one for the ACE counters

Crowded House - Don't Dream It's Over
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Quoting 1302. VR46L:
Goodbye Humberto , don't see ya coming back this time



So long, it's been good to know you
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Now at 140 kts.

Usagi is the first Category 5 cyclone of 2013.

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1302. VR46L
Goodbye Humberto , don't see ya coming back this time

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heard alot from the west side of mexico but not the east. eastern? fearful what we might find out.
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Good morning everybody.

There is no doubt in my mind that Usagi is a category 5, if not very close to becoming one. It's pretty much perfect in every way.
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What a storm. Probably at or near Cat 5 intensity based off satellite estimates. The relative regularity with which the West Pacific can produce storms like this is scary.



It'll probably perform an EWRC at some point starting within the next 24 hours, probably sooner, due to the rather tight inner core shown by microwave imagery. Hopefully that will weaken it some.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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