Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

Share this Blog
65
+

Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 499 - 449

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Quoting 478. ncstorm:


So this is where the term "Spaghetti Tracks" comes from... :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
498. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
3:00 AM JST September 19 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon Named Cyclone In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (955 hPa) located at 17.3N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.6N 126.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.2N 123.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
72 HRS: 21.6N 119.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
Quoting 484. SubtropicalHi:


I don't post much either, but 5 years ago, I didn't need this blog for craziness. A storm called Rita pretty much had the ENTIRE state of Texas shut down!!! All extra-curricular school activities as far away as San Antonio were canceled. No Friday night football was allowed within 200 miles of Rita. Rita was going to be Gilbert and Katrina on steroids!! It created the worst evacuation in human history and didn't create a drop of rain or gust of wind anywhere near central TX.

This chaos was created via traditional "educational" routes such as TV and the state of Texas.


I live just south of the Houston area so know too well the days of Rita. I also rode out Hurricane IKE in Galveston being as I worked on the Island
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L looks to be a storm of little significance intensity-wise but should still give rain to the coastline of Mexico and the Southeast, both of which have been nailed already this summer.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
95L looks like trash right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 415. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Donations to the rain fund are at $ 177.00 :)


Lol thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With Usagi up to 90kts already, I think it's very likely that the system will become a category 4 system. The last forecast from the JTWC had it becoming 85kt storm by 12z tomorrow (click to enlarge):



They will likely update it at 21z and most likely up the peak winds to around 125-130kts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 465. barbamz:
I got the impression some patience with 95L is required ;) Have a good evening everyone!



Weather service analyzes photos of strange clouds over Ore. town
Published: Sep 17, 2013 at 12:34 PM MDT
That's absolutely neither a scud cloud nor a funnel cloud; it's clearly nothing more than a high-altitude aircraft's condensation trail ("contrail") seen head-on from below.

If, as claimed, some meteorologist said it ight be in order... ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like 95L will stay in the BOC and not affect FL in the next 5 days. Here's a vizzy loop for my peeps.

95L visible loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 485. opal92nwf:



Quite a coincidence in Jerry there

Ended up here:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's the hand drawn showing the baroclinic low and then what's left of 95L next week.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Formidable typhoon in the western Pacific.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 485. opal92nwf:



WAIT.....is this the Jerry from 1989 ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 452. JLPR2:
Even though earlier in the season I wrote 16-7-5.

Now I think a more plausible prediction would be: 15-4-1


You still think the 2013 season will get a cat 3 or higher?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 473. VR46L:
Not a clue


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 428blueyedbiker:
I hardly ever post but I come on here for entertainment purposes only and the excellent maps and graphics.But the best part of all is watching the wannabe weather gurus making their predictions. Im sure is fun guessing where a storm might go. I come here for the entertainment but get my forcast from the NHC. The professionals. Even a blind squirrel can find an acorn sometimes. So keep on guessing. Makes for good entertainment. lol


I don't post much either, but 5 years ago, I didn't need this blog for craziness. A storm called Rita pretty much had the ENTIRE state of Texas shut down!!! All extra-curricular school activities as far away as San Antonio were canceled. No Friday night football was allowed within 200 miles of Rita. Rita was going to be Gilbert and Katrina on steroids!! It created the worst evacuation in human history and didn't create a drop of rain or gust of wind anywhere near central TX.

This chaos was created via traditional "educational" routes such as TV and the state of Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 453. ncstorm:
JMA







Hmm, Seems like FL could get wet somehow, but maybe it is all "wish-casting".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hmmph. I guess ignoring 95L has made him to decide to come to TX just to spite me.

Bring it!
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3252
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
(sigh) -- I have a link, too.
We MUST find alternative energy to avert global warming & horrible weather consequences!
How about...umm....WIND energy? Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 473. VR46L:
Not a clue



Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 455. daddyjames:
And today's needless, pointless, totally non-weather related distraction of the day.

The Good, The Bad and Some Ugly Crashes

copyright Jürgen Henn – 11foot8.com

Have a blast, I'll catch you later - perhaps to sit out my potential ban? :)


Oh my - outstanding mix with the music! Sort of painful & hard to not laugh at the same time!

Remember how the old Candid Camera shows played tricks on people? Well, I wonder if anyone ever thought of secretly raising the number of the "clearance" on such a bridge with a camera set up to record the havoc,...or maybe the drivers really do not pay attention. (Yikes.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
473. VR46L
Not a clue

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 461. ricderr:
i will bet $1000 THAT CENTRAL FLORIDA GETS NOTHING FROM 95L



would that be internet money..or the real thing?

I see he is back to betting money again must be nice to be independently wealthy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
disturbance east of the lesser Antilles looks interesting and suspicious
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 460. meteorite:
i will bet $1000 THAT CENTRAL FLORIDA GETS NOTHING FROM 95L


Will you give me 1000 bitcoins if Florida does get rain?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 378. ncstorm:
12z HWRF

The wishcasters are like

Quoting 388. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys new tropical low forms in the SW Caribbean not bad in terms of convection and could becomes a storms as well



So what ever happened with the MJO leaving and the second half of Sept being quiet?????? (:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I got the impression some patience with 95L is required ;) Have a good evening everyone!



Weather service analyzes photos of strange clouds over Ore. town
Published: Sep 17, 2013 at 12:34 PM MDT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 451. help4u:
Has the atlantic ever had a hurricane season without a major,unbelievable extreme event.Except on the quiet side.I think the season as far as hurricanes go is over.
1994 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 451. help4u:
Has the atlantic ever had a hurricane season without a major,unbelievable extreme event.Except on the quiet side.I think the season as far as hurricanes go is over.
nothing new under the sun everything is going to be fine don't worry about a thing move along nothing to see here


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i will bet $1000 THAT CENTRAL FLORIDA GETS NOTHING FROM 95L



would that be internet money..or the real thing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHAT? Huh?
Did you say "global warming"??
(NOoooooo!!!)



LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh...and for those that do come here to learn...may i suggest two sites that have benefited me...here you can learn to find maps, models and tyhe pages of other.....at these other two..you can learn to decipher the information....they are...noaa's "jetstream"course and many free courses found at "meted"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 439. ricderr:
He does have a point. The blog can be entertaining at times.

at times?...all the time...and even better when a few here start drinking


WHAT? Huh?
Did you say "global warming"??
(NOoooooo!!!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And today's needless, pointless, totally non-weather related distraction of the day.

The Good, The Bad and Some Ugly Crashes

copyright Jürgen Henn – 11foot8.com

Have a blast, I'll catch you later - perhaps to sit out my potential ban? :)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3732
Quoting 430. WalkingInTheSun:


Trajectory seems more on que to be a central GOM storm perhaps. Does it seem that way to anyone else?
It seems to be somehow more "spidey-sense tingling" than the 95L, for some reason.


Its rapid growth .. from just a little blob this AM - is why it has my attention.

To me it looks like the whole ATL is waking up from W to E... we could have a whole 'nuther season ahead of us.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3252
JMA





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
452. JLPR2
Even though earlier in the season I wrote 16-7-5.

Now I think a more plausible prediction would be: 15-4-1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has the atlantic ever had a hurricane season without a major,unbelievable extreme event.Except on the quiet side.I think the season as far as hurricanes go is over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
our weather people here in central florida just said no worries with 95l and that it shouldnt be even a tropical feature


i'm not going to disagree with them at this time...but i will mention..the local florida mets...said not to worry about wilma either
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This should clear everything up. :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013


LOW PRES ALONG A TROUGH HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST
W OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS
MAINLY OVER LAND AND IS POORLY ORGANIZED. REGARDLESS...FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE S CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING THE
APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A LATE
MORNING ALTIMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED 7-10 FT SEAS OVER THIS SAME
AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WNW DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREAFTER A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH THE LOW WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE LOW MAY
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THEN TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OR A
PORTION OF THE ENERGY MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WHILE A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF IT. FOR NOW THE
LATTER SCENARIO WAS FOLLOWED IN COORDINATION WITH THE HURRICANE
SPECIALIST UNIT AND WPC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN MAINLY THE W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 499 - 449

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
74 °F
Partly Cloudy