Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 532. opal92nwf:
This is for you CaribBoy


If computers did exist in 1898... I can guess some bloggers' comments when that storm was east of Barbados.

It will miss the trough!!
If it doesn't start the north turn soon it will be a caribbean cruiser
No way to thing will make such a hard turn
Look! it's going south of the next forecast point!
The NHC is way too aggressive with the right turn!
This thing is going straight to Jamaica
People in the NW Caribbean have to watch this extremely carefully!
Wow this will be a monster in the NW Caribbean


LOL
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Very low surface pressure showing up on the HWRF. We could be looking at a stronger than usual hybrid low pressure area as opposed to a truly tropical system with this one.

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I think this might have been more what people were expecting for 2013
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 2898
Quoting 543. opal92nwf:
Imagine what the blog would be like if we got a October storm like this:


Another IF lol sums up the season and btw looking at the models you can tell its not tropical but just a front.
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Quoting 522. RTSplayer:
95L:



We have the utmost confidence the precision and accuracy of these computer model forecasts. They should be taken seriously, as 95L is going everywhere.


Well, to be fair, in the last TWO the forecasters threw up their hands at it, too. But that may have been the MD office, and the Miami guys will probably have the same WTH discussion.
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Manuel's eye is clearing out nicely.
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Imagine what the blog would be like if we got a October storm like this:
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 2898
Strange liquid fell from sky this a.m. in S C IL, first semi substantial rain since mid July, .7". Don't think it went for enough N to help ILwthrfan unfortunately.

Sun came out this p.m., 84 w/ 70 dew pt (88HX), pressure dropping from 30 this morn to 29.91" currently. 4-16 S winds. Chance of pop ups this p.m., so maybe can get some to those areas NE that need it. If not, believe Fri to bring more widespread chance.

Sat highs have been dropped quite a bit from early week forecast, mid 70s vs low/mid 80s. Front may be stronger, effect on 95L?
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21:00 UTC JTWC warning peaks at 125kts and now tracks towards Hong Kong.

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.7N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.7N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.0N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.3N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.5N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 128.2E.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Yikes
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 2898
Anybody tell me what the CAPE is going to be like in 5 days is there an increase chance of severe weather?

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2013 atlantic hurricane activity map

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Trying to predict anything about 95L is in my opinion just plain foolishness based on how this Tropical Season has gone. I would neither discount it nor overrate it. Definitly would not trust a single model (just laugh at that this year). Anyway no one really thinks that a Storm will majorly impact the US this year so emotions range from irrational exhuberant to misconception. JMO
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Quoting 525. opal92nwf:


Fascinating path. Like a 40,000 foot high wall was placed along the coast from S. Texas to the NE USA
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Ouch:
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This is for you CaribBoy
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Disturbance E of the Lesser Antilles... is dry like the previous ones.

It doesn't look menacing... but I'd love to be wrong.
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More models seem to be trending with the idea I had yesterday of a system that gets strung out along the surface and upper level trough that will be sitting along the Northern Gulf. Again, this is not a favorable setup for tropical cyclone development. It is still totally possible that an area of low pressure gets left behind in the Western or Southwestern Gulf that is able to develop into something eventually. For the next week (at least), the Gulf is not going to be too hospitable for tropical development unless disturbances stay buried in the Southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche.

None of this takes away from the fact that the tropical moisture, in combination with the incoming trough, should produce an abundance of rainfall along the Gulf Coast.

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Fun stuff...
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 2898
Quoting 514. opal92nwf:

Actually considering the circumstances, 95L is doing pretty well. Unlike Gabrielle, it has a well defined LLC.

You can't trust that plot of surface winds that MoonLCboy posted a little while ago. It is generated by a computer program that assumes a well-defined LLC exists. Follow the link back on that image and there is info on how the plot is generated.
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Circulation is exposed.

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Quoting 518. VR46L:
Sigh ...



But I think the front will get him



Keep your eye on him. The last one snuck up on me. Lol. Although, this Humberto has been out there for a while. :)
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Quoting 509. opal92nwf:



Lol that's what I'm calling RAIN!!!!
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95L:



We have the utmost confidence the precision and accuracy of these computer model forecasts. They should be taken seriously, as 95L is going everywhere.
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Another one
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518. VR46L
Sigh ...



But I think the front will get him

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Finally found it
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Quoting 510. redwagon:


The ITCZ may have a tricksy hobbitses or two, also, waiting to detach.


Did you say "tricksey hobbitses"?
It twas them hobbitses that stole the "precious"!
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515. FOREX
Quoting 514. opal92nwf:

Actually considering the circumstances, 95L is doing pretty well. Unlike Gabrielle, it has a well defined LLC.


Are you referring to the spin that popped out this morning or a llc is still under the Yucatan convection?
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Quoting 508. FOREX:


95L is so disorganized right now I am only trusting the BAMM.

Actually considering the circumstances, 95L is doing pretty well. Unlike Gabrielle, it has a well defined LLC.
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Quoting 484. SubtropicalHi:


I don't post much either, but 5 years ago, I didn't need this blog for craziness. A storm called Rita pretty much had the ENTIRE state of Texas shut down!!! All extra-curricular school activities as far away as San Antonio were canceled. No Friday night football was allowed within 200 miles of Rita. Rita was going to be Gilbert and Katrina on steroids!! It created the worst evacuation in human history and didn't create a drop of rain or gust of wind anywhere near central TX.

This chaos was created via traditional "educational" routes such as TV and the state of Texas.


On the flipside of that, I recall a tropical storm heading due North towards Freeport, TX (south of Houston) some years back. The "pros" were SO sure it was going to suddenly turn West that there was no evacuation mentioned for the Galveston-Freeport area, if I remember correctly. It would have been costly to do so.

So,....as I heard the NOAA weathercasts staying the same for an entire day while it was closing in, I suspected something -- like the storm was not doing as they'd predicted, but too worried about the costs of evacuation on a possible "dud". Yup,...checked it out to find the TS was STILL heading north & might strengthen into a hurricane...with about 24 hours before landfall. They were determined to not risk the cost of evacuation but ready to gamble that it would not quickly intensify, stay headed north, & maybe catch lots of people "flat-footed" & having to shelter in place.

It finally turned West, but took a long time to do so. I dislike it when the "pros" GAMBLE with other peoples' lives.
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Quoting 484. SubtropicalHi:


I don't post much either, but 5 years ago, I didn't need this blog for craziness. A storm called Rita pretty much had the ENTIRE state of Texas shut down!!! All extra-curricular school activities as far away as San Antonio were canceled. No Friday night football was allowed within 200 miles of Rita. Rita was going to be Gilbert and Katrina on steroids!! It created the worst evacuation in human history and didn't create a drop of rain or gust of wind anywhere near central TX.

This chaos was created via traditional "educational" routes such as TV and the state of Texas.

People panicked. Travel out of Houston was near impossible at 5 AM the Thursday before Rita made landfall. A hurricane warning was not issued until about 10 AM that day.
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its not hard to look at the current satellite of 95L and realize how wrong the HWRF is going to be. People only are posting it because its a doom run that wont happen. It has literally made the same looking system and intensity since TD 1 until now. And it has been wrong EVERY time.
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Quoting 471. stoormfury:
disturbance east of the lesser Antilles looks interesting and suspicious


The ITCZ may have a tricksy hobbitses or two, also, waiting to detach.
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Quoting 501. CaribBoy:
I still think october and november may bring all the rain we deserve XD

Maybe another Jose and another Lenny.....

We got nearly 1000 mm / 40 inches for the months of october and november 1999.

I want to see that again (though with less winds than what Lenny brought :s :s lol)

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508. FOREX
Quoting 504. opal92nwf:

Your profile picture scares me every time I look at it.

I'm being extra wary, especially with that HWRF model (:


95L is so disorganized right now I am only trusting the BAMM.
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The legend that is tropical storm Humberto, terror of the high seas.
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506. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013SEP18 190100 5.8 934.8 +2.2 109.8 5.5 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF -33.84 -71.03 EYE 8 IR 39.1 17.15 -128.43

---
From Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique.

Dvorak 5.5 (at least)
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Quoting 492. Neapolitan:
That's absolutely neither a scud cloud nor a funnel cloud; it's clearly nothing more than a high-altitude aircraft's condensation trail ("contrail") seen head-on from below.

If, as claimed, some meteorologist said it ight be in order... ;-)


Lol! So these other NWS-news will match, *cough* ;)

NWS to lead storm spotter class
Published 10:56pm Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Area residents wanting to help keep there [sic] community safe by knowing how to read the storm clouds overhead, can learn how to do just that in mid-October. ...

More good news: Anyone in this blog should be allowed to take part:

... Anyone ages 12 and older, and interested in learning about severe weather, can attend the free program. ...

I'm gone ... Stay safe and bright :)
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Quoting 489. Chucktown:
Here's the hand drawn showing the baroclinic low and then what's left of 95L next week.

Link

Your profile picture scares me.

I'm being extra wary, especially with that HWRF model (:
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 2898
Quoting 492. Neapolitan:
That's absolutely neither a scud cloud nor a funnel cloud; it's clearly nothing more than a high-altitude aircraft's condensation trail ("contrail") seen head-on from below.

If, as claimed, some meteorologist said it ight be in order... ;-)


Looks like it is simply an aircraft trail to me as well.
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502. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON ODETTE
11:00 PM PhST September 18 2013
=================================================

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Isabela
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Island
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I still think october and november may bring all the rain we deserve XD

Maybe another Jose and another Lenny.....

We got nearly 1000 mm / 40 inches for the months of october and november 1999.

I want to see that again (though with less winds than what Lenny brought :s :s lol)
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Quoting 491. StormWx:
Looks like 95L will stay in the BOC and not affect FL in the next 5 days. Here's a vizzy loop for my peeps.

95L visible loop


Looks like movement West, which could duck under the front heading in up north.
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Quoting 478. ncstorm:


So this is where the term "Spaghetti Tracks" comes from... :)
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