Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 555. MississippiWx:


You could basically say this about any developing system. You don't sit back and not "make a forecast" just because the setup is complicated. The more complicated the pattern the more fun it is to forecast in my opinion.

And no, it's not foolishness.


And you just made my point...
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Quoting 590. opal92nwf:
Ok, I think I've overloaded enough on the blog for now.

I need a break. I just hope 95 at least becomes something more interesting than a weak, pathetic, dry air infested, wind sheared, weakling...

JUST AT LEAST SOMETHING DIFFERENT (:
Don't worry it will all balance itself out.
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Since we are talking about storm tracks, I'd like to present one that I've been quite interested in, 1837's Racer's Storm.

Racer's Storm's possible track
Directory of storm info from 1837. Racer's Storm is storm in that directory.
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Quoting 591. FOREX:


What entity will make it go more NW?


High pressure to its east
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Quoting 587. JrWeathermanFL:

Pfft. It peaked at 70mph.
A storm this year might have trouble gettin there :P

I was going so fast I didn't look at the intensity. Well at least it epitomized 2013 in the sense that it fizzled. :P
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Quoting 574. Ameister12:

Projected path has the center going right over Hong Kong as a category 2.




SWCARIB low gaining.. well, everything.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3305
Quoting 588. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Calling it now Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean in October.


Any model hinting about that?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15483
591. FOREX
Quoting 589. scottsvb:
95L is looking decent right now...beginning to get T-Storms as it meanders WNW.... so far today it's drifted .2W in the past 6-8hrs. Expect it to pick up more of a push NW tonight into Thurs. I expect this to be a TD or TS by 11am Thurs unless Dmax is unimpressive

60%chance


What entity will make it go more NW?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Ok, I think I've overloaded enough on the blog for now.

I need a break. I just hope 95 at least becomes something more interesting than a weak, pathetic, dry air infested, wind sheared, weakling...

JUST AT LEAST SOMETHING DIFFERENT (:
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95L is looking decent right now...beginning to get T-Storms as it meanders WNW.... so far today it's drifted .2W in the past 6-8hrs. Expect it to pick up more of a push NW tonight into Thurs. I expect this to be a TD or TS by 11am Thurs unless Dmax is unimpressive

60%chance
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Calling it now Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean in October.
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Quoting 571. opal92nwf:
lol. this is the type of storms you would expect to see in 2013

Pfft. It peaked at 70mph.
A storm this year might have trouble gettin there :P
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Quoting 581. FOREX:


The latest out of Tallahassee says they in accordance with the NHC from this afternoon do not expect 95L to be picked up. Guess it heads west into Mexico or dissipates.


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
323 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2013

Marin...
Based
on the wpc-NHC coordination from this afternoon, we are working
off of the Assumption that the main tropical entity, which is
likely to develop over the next few days in the southwest Gulf of
Mexico, will remain separate and south of the approaching cold
front this weekend.
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12z GFS



Navgem
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TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO...
MAINLY IN SKELETAL BANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER
VAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THIS MAY BE SLOWING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. RECENT OSCAT DATA
SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS ABOUT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS ARE 37 KT AND 32 KT RESPECTIVELY.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 35 KT.

HUMBERTO HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION NOW 355/5. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH A FRONTAL ZONE IN
36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WHETHER
HUMBERTO WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...OR WHETHER IT WILL
DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH AS ANOTHER LOW BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
CALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS. THAT
BEING SAID...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE 72 HOUR POINT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 31.8N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 33.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 34.9N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 37.4N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 41.6N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z 54.0N 23.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15483

Quoting 562. MiamiHurricanes09:
A lot more interesting than what's going on in the Atlantic.

A fart in the wind is more interesting than anything occurring in the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24867
People are hying up 95L and its hilarious. I thought it would become the storm of the year so far, but I GREATLY backed off now based off the things I saw today. IT will just hook up with a front and be non tropical. easy call
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581. FOREX
Quoting 573. opal92nwf:
Ah, finally found another one


The latest out of Tallahassee says they in accordance with the NHC from this afternoon do not expect 95L to be picked up. Guess it heads west into Mexico or dissipates.

Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting 575. CybrTeddy:

And the absolutely stellar hurricane season of 2013 continues.


I could be wrong though since I don't have a met degree or never took any met classes.

;-)
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579. SLU
I miss those days ...

Three major hurricanes: Igor, Julia and Karl.

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Quoting 562. MiamiHurricanes09:
A lot more interesting than what's going on in the Atlantic.


For the most part, I agree, although there are some interesting synoptic solutions possible with 95L. Still though, storms like that are what really solidified my love of meteorology.
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Quoting 522. RTSplayer:
95L:



We have the utmost confidence the precision and accuracy of these computer model forecasts. They should be taken seriously, as 95L is going everywhere.


so, what you are saying is..everyone should panic ? ;)
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576. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST September 19 2013
=====================================

Kamchatka Peninsula

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Man-yi (980 hPa) located at 59.0N 164.0E is reported as moving east northeast at 15 knots.

Overland Vietnam

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression "23" (998 hPa) located at 16.2N 107.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
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Quoting 529. MississippiWx:
More models seem to be trending with the idea I had yesterday of a system that gets strung out along the surface and upper level trough that will be sitting along the Northern Gulf. Again, this is not a favorable setup for tropical cyclone development. It is still totally possible that an area of low pressure gets left behind in the Western or Southwestern Gulf that is able to develop into something eventually. For the next week (at least), the Gulf is not going to be too hospitable for tropical development unless disturbances stay buried in the Southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche.

None of this takes away from the fact that the tropical moisture, in combination with the incoming trough, should produce an abundance of rainfall along the Gulf Coast.

And the absolutely stellar hurricane season of 2013 continues.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24867
Quoting 564. Envoirment:
New forecast for Usagi (click to enlarge):



Peaking with winds of 125kts. Perhaps this may become the first category 5 system this year.

Projected path has the center of Usagi going right over Hong Kong as a category 2.
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Ah, finally found another one
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lol. this is the type of storms you would expect to see in 2013
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Or this which brought the water and winds with it.

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Another nasty late Sept/Oct FL storm
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Quoting 558. opal92nwf:
What a beast
I might as well get in on the act. Since this has been an inactive year. It just goes to show you never let your guard down.



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AYE AYE AYE!!!
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Cool
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New forecast for Usagi (click to enlarge):



Peaking with winds of 125kts. Perhaps this may become the first category 5 system this year.
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Quoting 555. MississippiWx:


You could basically say this about any developing system. You don't sit back and not "make a forecast" just because the setup is complicated. The more complicated the pattern the more fun it is to forecast in my opinion.

And no, it's not foolishness.

This. It would be boring after a while if we had a set-in-stone pattern for every tropical cyclone with perfect agreement in all the models. The forecaster gets to test his/her abilities and learn from any mistakes in a complicated pattern.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
A lot more interesting than what's going on in the Atlantic.

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Quoting 557. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Eventually it will happen, it's not a matter of if, but when. It may not be this October, it may not be next year, but I think it is downright foolish to say we may never see a storm like some of the ones you are posting ever again.

It's just a matter of time..
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Quoting 518. VR46L:
Sigh ...



But I think the front will get him



It'll be interesting to see his fate. Yesterday, it looked like Iceland, then someone said Ireland/Britain, and at least in one post it looked like it was headed for the Faroe Islands :)
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Quoting 549. CaribBoy:


If computers did exist in 1898... I can guess some bloggers' comments when that storm was east of Barbados.

It will miss the trough!!
If it doesn't start the north turn soon it will be a caribbean cruiser
No way to thing will make such a hard turn
Look! it's going south of the next forecast point!
The NHC is way too aggressive with the right turn!
This thing is going straight to Jamaica
People in the NW Caribbean have to watch this extremely carefully!
Wow this will be a monster in the NW Caribbean


LOL

LOL!
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What a beast
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Quoting 543. opal92nwf:
Imagine what the blog would be like if we got a October storm like this:
Eventually it will happen, it's not a matter of if, but when. It may not be this October, it may not be next year, but I think it is downright foolish to say we may never see a storm like some of the ones you are posting ever again.
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Quoting 535. Times2:
Trying to predict anything about 95L is in my opinion just plain foolishness based on how this Tropical Season has gone. I would neither discount it nor overrate it. Definitly would not trust a single model (just laugh at that this year). Anyway no one really thinks that a Storm will majorly impact the US this year so emotions range from irrational exhuberant to misconception. JMO


You could basically say this about any developing system. You don't sit back and not "make a forecast" just because the setup is complicated. The more complicated the pattern the more fun it is to forecast in my opinion.

And no, it's not foolishness.
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Quoting 547. opal92nwf:
I think this might have been more what people were expecting for 2013


Wow look at the Lesser Antilles lol, I want the same XD
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553. VR46L
Quoting 524. AtHomeInTX:


Keep your eye on him. The last one snuck up on me. Lol. Although, this Humberto has been out there for a while. :)


I have been but I think he is doomed in the next 24-36 hrs
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7077
Quoting 544. Ameister12:

eye spy
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6178
Quoting 536. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2013 atlantic hurricane activity map



Not very pretty lol
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Ouch. Got to watch out for those late Sept. storms
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Quoting 532. opal92nwf:
This is for you CaribBoy


If computers did exist in 1898... I can guess some bloggers' comments when that storm was east of Barbados.

It will miss the trough!!
If it doesn't start the north turn soon it will be a caribbean cruiser
No way to thing will make such a hard turn
Look! it's going south of the next forecast point!
The NHC is way too aggressive with the right turn!
This thing is going straight to Jamaica
People in the NW Caribbean have to watch this extremely carefully!
Wow this will be a monster in the NW Caribbean


LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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