Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 624. EllasD:

correct me if I am wrong but didn't you (or someone w/ the same type of name) say yesterday Cat 2 for NOLA?
.....Stormcat at it again....LOL
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Quoting 643. EllasD:


ahhh now I see why I was banned 4 yrs ago...sorry to get you mixed up w/ another. I came back this yr hoping all the childish copy-cat names had stopped. My bad, glad to see the weekly pi**ing matches still happen,


Yes, they said Cat 2 or 3 into the Gulf Coast yesterday. You are not incorrect. Also, you are better off not even engaging in conversation with that blogger.
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More uncertainty

MODELS HAVE ALSO STARTING HINTING AT SOME FORM OF CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT REACHES THE COAST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
LATEST RUNS INDICATE A BAROCLINIC SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS THE FRONT EXISTS THE
REGION. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THATS MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN WOULD JUST SIT AND MEANDER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IF THIS SOLUTION OR SOME FROM OF IT WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW JUST
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS CURRENTLY STILL CLOSE TO THE PEAK OF
HURRICANE SEASON.

(Excerpt from latest NWS New Orleans Discussion)
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646. FOREX
Quoting 641. EyEtoEyE:
. I wonder why , when Denis Phillips says this weekend is going to be very wet , I guess the NHC , and Tallahassee , are wrong , as usual , they are just guessing !


First 95L has to develop, which is not happening, then be far enough north to be picked up which right now looks unlikely. jmo
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What a great looking system 95L is right now

ENTER SARCASM
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Fresh off the presses..

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Quoting 630. SuperStorm093:
Are you literally that delusional my friend? Look at the comment you quoted and you should get your answer lmao, some people cant read the fine print.


ahhh now I see why I was banned 4 yrs ago...sorry to get you mixed up w/ another. I came back this yr hoping all the childish copy-cat names had stopped. My bad, glad to see the weekly pi**ing matches still happen,
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95L looks like it's separating into 2 pieces..probably not though..

Still looks fair on vis.
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Quoting 581. FOREX:


The latest out of Tallahassee says they in accordance with the NHC from this afternoon do not expect 95L to be picked up. Guess it heads west into Mexico or dissipates.

. I wonder why , when Denis Phillips says this weekend is going to be very wet , I guess the NHC , and Tallahassee , are wrong , as usual , they are just guessing !
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Quoting 564. Envoirment:
New forecast for Usagi (click to enlarge):



Peaking with winds of 125kts. Perhaps this may become the first category 5 system this year.
Oh wow. If I decided to stay another month in Hong Kong I would be in trouble.
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Quoting 635. JrWeathermanFL:
Yeah, if we end this season with an 85mph hurricane being the strongest of the season...

I dont wanna talk about it :P

Bud sales would go up across the nation


Most people across the US won't care or notice.
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Quoting 622. Naga5000:


The wording from the Melbourne NWS suggests that a baroclinic surface low develops along the front and moves NE, and as the front lifts out, 95L is left behind in the SW gulf.

Although the setup looks to be much more complex than that, it seems like it is the most realistic solution.


They are in agreement with me then. Lol.
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Yeah, if we end this season with an 85mph hurricane being the strongest of the season...

I dont wanna talk about it :P

Bud sales would go up across the nation
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Quoting 629. EllasD:


lets see Georges, Lilly, and what was the name of the Nov storm in 2009?
Ida
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Quoting 599. Times2:


And you just made my point...


...Not at all, but whatever floats your boat.
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Quoting 607. hurricanehanna:


looks like it will run right into 95L


I think it can make it to the BOC by Oct.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3222
Quoting 624. EllasD:

correct me if I am wrong but didn't you (or someone w/ the same type of name) say yesterday Cat 2 for NOLA?
Are you literally that delusional my friend? Look at the comment you quoted and you should get your answer lmao, some people cant read the fine print.
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Quoting 626. HurriHistory:
I agree. Let's break out the storm shutters and start boarding up the windows. Might as well get a jump on things seeing how October is just around the corner. Darn!!! Now where did I put my sterno cooker.


lets see Georges, Lilly, and what was the name of the Nov storm in 2009?
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Manuel tcr should show that he peak as a cat 1 before landfall in Guerrero or the state which it first make landfall.He looks awesome in Satelites image,if it wasn`t for Mexico he would have probably reach cat 3 or more.For some reason I knew Humberto wouldn`t strength as a cat 2 or 3 as the models where showing.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
Quoting 619. canehater1:
While it is fun to forecast for us bloggers, I imagine the boys in Coral Gables are busy trying to
ascertain just how long 95-L will wander in the BOC
and not sure of anything yet if you read their discussions.....
Just so you know, the NHC is now and has been located on the South Campus of FIU in Kendal. No longer in Coral Gables.
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Quoting 618. MiamiHurricanes09:
The season isn't going to go without a major hurricane.

The most likely location for such a feature to develop would be the western Caribbean. It isn't necessarily a gut feeling or a completely random guess, it's something that's bound to occur.

I'm still patiently awaiting the knock out major hurricane of the 2013 season, and at this point, the western Caribbean is the most likely location.
I agree. Let's break out the storm shutters and start boarding up the windows. Might as well get a jump on things seeing how October is just around the corner. Darn!!! Now where did I put my sterno cooker.
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Quoting 617. SuperStorm093:
1. Wasn't talking about you just in general. 2. I already said in my earlier comment that I no longer see this as a hurricane, let alone all tropical.



How has the NHC done so far this year with the storms? Also member when they had 92L at the same percentage and it never formed, oh yeah guess you don't/

correct me if I am wrong but didn't you (or someone w/ the same type of name) say yesterday Cat 2 for NOLA?
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623. FOREX
Quoting 612. 69Viking:


If it develops as quickly as Manuel re-development then it might be picked up. I think the stronger it gets the better chance it has to be picked up so we'll see. It's over the water now, what happens overnight might be telling.


yup, it's a wait and see. Seems like it is moving due West right now. Your thoughts on that?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1838
Quoting 555. MississippiWx:


You could basically say this about any developing system. You don't sit back and not "make a forecast" just because the setup is complicated. The more complicated the pattern the more fun it is to forecast in my opinion.

And no, it's not foolishness.


The wording from the Melbourne NWS suggests that a baroclinic surface low develops along the front and moves NE, and as the front lifts out, 95L is left behind in the SW gulf.

Although the setup looks to be much more complex than that, it seems like it is the most realistic solution.
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Quoting 619. canehater1:
While it is fun to forecast for us bloggers, I imagine the boys in Coral Gables are busy trying to
ascertain just how long 95-L will wander in the BOC
and not sure of anything yet if you read their discussions.....
Finally a logical post
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Quoting 614. clwstmchasr:


Scott,
Is it possible that the outflow from Manuel hurts 95L just like it's predecessor?


doubtful cause of the distance apart from each other. Only thing I see that will hamper development in the near term is the marginal ssts due to the past system going through and some dry air around but it's not much. If convection does increase this evening and tonight then this has a good chance of becoming a TS by late morning...but if it doesn't then they will wait till HH fly out there. They should be a go tomorrow.
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While it is fun to forecast for us bloggers, I imagine the boys in Coral Gables are busy trying to
ascertain just how long 95-L will wander in the BOC
and not sure of anything yet if you read their discussions.....
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Quoting 610. Tygor:


*Calling it now: MAJOR CATEGORY 8 HURRICANE GOING TO TAMPA IN DECEMBER.

Makes as much sense as a random response a month away so you can simply go back and say "i told you so" when it's a 100% guess or gut feeling.

*There are no models forecasting a category 8 hurricane going to Tampa.
The season isn't going to go without a major hurricane.

The most likely location for such a feature to develop would be the western Caribbean. It isn't necessarily a gut feeling or a completely random guess, it's something that's bound to occur.

I'm still patiently awaiting the knock out major hurricane of the 2013 season, and at this point, the western Caribbean is the most likely location.
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Quoting 603. scottsvb:


When did I ever say this was going to be a TD this morning? You didn't mention my name but I don't see anyone else posting this for tomorrow, except you yesterday saying this was going to be a strong hurricane
1. Wasn't talking about you just in general. 2. I already said in my earlier comment that I no longer see this as a hurricane, let alone all tropical.

Quoting 604. clwstmchasr:


Did you forget that the NHC has it at a high chance 70/80% of developing.


How has the NHC done so far this year with the storms? Also member when they had 92L at the same percentage and it never formed, oh yeah guess you don't/
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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. A
RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE
PICTURES. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...
MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SINCE THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER
TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS
WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE
COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OFFSHORE. MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER
EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY.

BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COAST. RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Warning issued as Manuel will peak at 75kts.



BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL QUICKLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 108.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO
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Of course you all know that today is the 87-year anniversary of The Great Miami Hurricane of September 18, 1926. On that terrible day in the wee hours of the morning of the 18th, that storm blew in with a fury that would make a strong man weep for his mama! The wind meter measured a sustained wind of 132-MPH atop Allison Hospital on 63rd street on Miami Beach before the instrument blew away. Gusts were estimated as high as 150-MPH. At one point, all of Miami Beach was under several feet of water. More then 300-people were killed during the storm, however some estimates put the number closer to 800. The pressure at the NWS office in downtown Miami fell to 27.61 inches according to Richard W.Gray who was the forcast officer in charge. Many of deaths occurred during the passage of the eye around sunrise as most Miami residents did not know that the second part of the storm was still to come. Contrast that horrible day 87 years ago to what is going on in the tropics today. Nothing!!!!! Let's all take a moment of silence to remember the several hundred men, women and children who were killed in that Hurricane.
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Quoting 581. FOREX:


The latest out of Tallahassee says they in accordance with the NHC from this afternoon do not expect 95L to be picked up. Guess it heads west into Mexico or dissipates.



If it develops as quickly as Manuel re-development then it might be picked up. I think the stronger it gets the better chance it has to be picked up so we'll see. It's over the water now, what happens overnight might be telling.
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Quoting 588. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Calling it now Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean in October.
Completely agree.
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610. Tygor
Quoting 588. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Calling it now Major Hurricane in the Western Caribbean in October.


*Calling it now: MAJOR CATEGORY 8 HURRICANE GOING TO TAMPA IN DECEMBER.

Makes as much sense as a random response a month away so you can simply go back and say "i told you so" when it's a 100% guess or gut feeling.

*There are no models forecasting a category 8 hurricane going to Tampa.
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Station 42055
NDBC
Location: 22.203N 94W
Date: Wed, 18 Sep 2013 19:50:00 UTC

Winds: NE (50°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (69°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.77 in and fallingAir Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.5

Bay of Campeche Buoy 214nm E of Veracruz

Courtesy NDBC
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Manuel is looking much better today with an inner core established and an eye appearing on visible satellite images. Should reach hurricane status soon as it is in a favorable environment for further intensification. The category 1 hurricane filled EPAC hurricanes season rolls on.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Quoting 593. redwagon:




SWCARIB low gaining.. well, everything.


looks like it will run right into 95L
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606. yoboi
Quoting 492. Neapolitan:
That's absolutely neither a scud cloud nor a funnel cloud; it's clearly nothing more than a high-altitude aircraft's condensation trail ("contrail") seen head-on from below.

If, as claimed, some meteorologist said it ight be in order... ;-)




From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search "Vapor Trail" redirects here. For other uses, see Vapor Trail (disambiguation).
For other uses, see Contrail (disambiguation).
Aviaticus cloud


Engine exhaust contrails
Genus Cirrus (curl of hair), cirrocumulus, or cirrostratus
Altitude Usually above 5,000 m
(Usually above 16,500 ft)
Classification Family A (High-level)
Appearance long bands
Precipitation cloud? No


Contrails (/ˈkɒntreɪlz/; short for "condensation trails") or vapor trails are long thin artificial (man-made) clouds that sometimes form behind aircraft. Their formation is most often triggered by the water vapor in the exhaust of aircraft engines, but can also be triggered by the changes in air pressure in wingtip vortices or in the air over the entire wing surface.[1] Like all clouds, contrails are made of water, in the form of a suspension of billions of liquid droplets or ice crystals


Link
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any models pick up the wave around 50w? there is some spin headed to the leewards.
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Quoting 600. SuperStorm093:
And now the people who said definitely a TD by this morning are now resorting to tomorrow morning lol. keep it coming folks


When did I ever say this was going to be a TD this morning? You didn't mention my name but I don't see anyone else posting this for tomorrow, except you yesterday saying this was going to be a strong hurricane
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Quite an array of forecasts for 95. I have no idea , so I will be quiet... (for now)
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And now the people who said definitely a TD by this morning are now resorting to tomorrow morning lol. keep it coming folks
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Quoting 555. MississippiWx:


You could basically say this about any developing system. You don't sit back and not "make a forecast" just because the setup is complicated. The more complicated the pattern the more fun it is to forecast in my opinion.

And no, it's not foolishness.


And you just made my point...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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