Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 689. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's too early to say and their is not much evidence behind it nor enough research done on it on the impacts Global Warming will have on future hurricane seasons. Some of us have already distinguished that the melting sea ice in the Arctic is causing a blocking that has affected the path of Cape-Verde storms and even the storms that have developed in the Western Caribbean have gone on to hit the Yucatan or Central America or moved out of the Caribbean heading northeast avoiding the Gulf Coast states. That leaves a void of storms passing through the GOM and a lot more have been focused in the BOC and Tropical/Subtropical Atlantic. Now before you all try to beat me across the head, I understand we here in the States have dealt with Isaac, Ike, Irene, and Sandy, but before 2006 we had multiple 2+ storms coming from the Cape-Verdes and Caribbean. So perhaps it may still come across as speculation, like I said the research is still ongoing and there could still be other reasons than Global Warming as to why we are seeing this persistent pattern.


yep..you right..its speculating..anyone contributing or even "speculating" this ONE season to GW can only be given the side eye..

here is the reason behind lack of hurricanes..
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Quoting 688. VAbeachhurricanes:


The seasons are at different times :p


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/S olar-activity-drops-to-100-year-low-puzzling-scien tists/articleshow/22719807.cms

Link

?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3235
Quoting 696. wxchaser97:

Yes you are! :)


Zack, go freeze yourself or whatever you people do in Michigan for fun.

;-) ;-) ;-)

<3
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Quoting 695. MississippiWx:


Yes. I'm a huge smarta**, so I pick up sarcasm from others quite well. Lol.

Yes you are! :)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting 692. Tornado6042008X:
BTW you know I was just messing with you about the anniversary. You're of course correct that Isabel was the event that I was referring to.


Yes. I'm a huge smarta**, so I pick up sarcasm from others quite well. Lol.
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Ahh, good to use a PC... Well I will admit I was wrong on Ingrid's strength. Could have sworn I saw her strengthening when obs showed pressures rising and the storm weakening to TS strength.

As for 95L?
Probably one of those storms where it strengthens a bit in the BOC, then decouples as the mid level energy gets forced to the NE while the LLC stalls and dies in the BOC. Interesting year, but deff not boring. I found Ingrid a very fascinating storm being it was so close to Manuel.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting 569. opal92nwf:
Another nasty late Sept/Oct FL storm
This is one of our "Storms of Renown", along with 1926 [the July one, not the one that hit Miami] and 1928. If you ever heard that song "Run Come See Jerusalem", it was about this very 1929 storm pictured here. Written by a Bahamian guy named Blind Blake.

Quoting 577. hurricanehanna:


so, what you are saying is..everyone should panic ? ;)
We've been doing that all season.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22073
Quoting 685. MississippiWx:


The globe is going to explode soon from all the untapped energy. One day, we're going to be going about our daily routine of arguing with one another on here and just like that: poof! We all will vaporize into thin air.
BTW you know I was just messing with you about the anniversary. You're of course correct that Isabel was the event that I was referring to.
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting 690. TropicalAnalystwx13:

K Drew.


K.
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Quoting 685. MississippiWx:


The globe is going to explode soon from all the untapped energy. One day, we're going to be going about our daily routine of arguing with one another on here and just like that: poof! We all will vaporize into thin air.

K Drew.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31994
Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 85 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 105 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific typhoon has officially (JMA) failed to produce a typhoon stronger than 120 mph. Zero super typhoons.

I'm not sure what is going on with the tropics globally, but something is screwed up.
It's too early to say and their is not much evidence behind it nor enough research done on it on the impacts Global Warming will have on future hurricane seasons. Some of us have already distinguished that the melting sea ice in the Arctic is causing a blocking that has affected the path of Cape-Verde storms and even the storms that have developed in the Western Caribbean have gone on to hit the Yucatan or Central America or moved out of the Caribbean heading northeast avoiding the Gulf Coast states. That leaves a void of storms passing through the GOM and a lot more have been focused in the BOC and Tropical/Subtropical Atlantic. Now before you all try to beat me across the head, I understand we here in the States have dealt with Isaac, Ike, Irene, and Sandy, but before 2006 we had multiple 2+ storms coming from the Cape-Verdes and Caribbean. So perhaps it may still come across as speculation, like I said the research is still ongoing and there could still be other reasons than Global Warming as to why we are seeing this persistent pattern.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8192
Quoting 686. redwagon:


Globally late?


The seasons are at different times :p
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6482
Quoting 669. VR46L:




Bad memories..baaaad memories..
You know I seriously forgot it was hurricane season.Like I really did.I had to be reminded about hurricane season by my local mets.Then I had almost forgotten about this site.Since there is nothing gong on in the tropics I'm leaving.Go and proceed.
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Quoting 674. KoritheMan:


The fact that it's happening in all three basins suggests it's a global factor, not a regional one.


Globally late?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3235
Quoting 678. TropicalAnalystwx13:
For whoever cares, I have updated and double-checked all the values for both the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ACE calc and 2013 Pacific hurricane season ACE calc pages. Everything should be accurate.

Atlantic: 23.4425 units
East/Central Pacific: 47.265 units


The globe is going to explode soon from all the untapped energy. One day, we're going to be going about our daily routine of arguing with one another on here and just like that: poof! We all will vaporize into thin air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sup people who wants to come take my econometrics quiz?!
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6482
Quoting 681. MississippiWx:


Just one.

A few others were claiming hurricane of some sort.


If we didn't have that non-tropical low forming along the front in the next few days, I don't see too much that could create more strengthening than forecast.

A marginal Category 1 would be possible if it weren't for that low.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20547
682. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
It seem that the JMA strays from the 10 minute sustained wind average once the Dvorak is at 6.0

90-95 knots for 115 knots cyclone instead of 100 knots (10 min)

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
Quoting 679. KoritheMan:


LOL

Were people actually saying that?

Wow.


Just one.

A few others were claiming hurricane of some sort.
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Quoting 674. KoritheMan:


The fact that it's happening in all three basins suggests it's a global factor, not a regional one.


Kori,you think the 2013 Atlantic season will have a major cane sometime in October or November despite the unusual season so far?
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Quoting 648. MississippiWx:


Yes, they said Cat 2 or 3 into the Gulf Coast yesterday. You are not incorrect. Also, you are better off not even engaging in conversation with that blogger.


LOL

Were people actually saying that?

Wow.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20547
For whoever cares, I have updated and double-checked all the values for both the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ACE calc and 2013 Pacific hurricane season ACE calc pages. Everything should be accurate.

Atlantic: 23.4425 units
East/Central Pacific: 47.265 units
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31994
Quoting 671. HadesGodWyvern:


if you call it that.. (10 min average) =P
*Sustained. ;)
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Curious question - I've been trying to update the death tolls for Ingrid and Manuel but Google News has yet to find an article that separates the officially confirmed 57 into both storms? Last one I saw for Ingrid was 23 and 14 for Manuel, but can anyone help with links on this? Or maybe just edit the articles on the 2013 atlantic and pacific seasons, if there are more Wikipedians among us :) ?
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Quoting 670. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Duh, thanks for reminding me. JMA uses 10-minute sustained. Puts it at 140 mph 1-minute sustained.

Still, I modified my comment. The JMA doesn't officially use the super typhoon status so I guess it could be said that the Pacific typhoon season had 1 super typhoon even though technically it wouldn't be official.
Eh, they had Soulik in July with 145mph, and Utor with 150mph. Still way below average, but still supplying us with entertainment. Usagi is already up to 105mph.
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Quoting 673. redwagon:


I think it's just late.. we might have an extended season.


The fact that it's happening in all three basins suggests it's a global factor, not a regional one.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20547
Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 85 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 105 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific typhoon has officially (JMA) failed to produce a typhoon stronger than 120 mph. Zero super typhoons.

I'm not sure what is going on with the tropics globally, but something is screwed up.


I think it's just late.. we might have an extended season.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3235
Quoting 669. VR46L:




.
Hurricane Isabel!!!
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671. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 668. MiamiHurricanes09:
It was 150mph. The JMA uses a 10-minute average.


if you call it that.. (10 min average) =P
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
Quoting 666. bappit:

They use a different method of measuring wind speed don't they? Some agency uses average 10 minute wind speed. I think NHC goes with average 1 minute wind speed. There was a post where someone had tracked down the differences.

Duh, thanks for reminding me. JMA uses 10-minute sustained. Puts it at 140 mph 1-minute sustained.

Still, I modified my comment. The JMA doesn't officially use the super typhoon status so I guess it could be said that the Pacific typhoon season had 1 super typhoon even though technically it wouldn't be official.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31994
669. VR46L
Quoting 651. Tornado6042008X:
Can anyone guess what today is the 10 year anniversary of?...... probably. I just want to see how long it will take.




Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting 659. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I guess it could be considered a super typhoon, though it was only rated 120 mph by the JMA. Then again, the JMA doesn't use super typhoon status.
It was 150mph. The JMA uses a 10-minute average.
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667. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting 659. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I guess it could be considered a super typhoon, though it was only rated 120 mph by the JMA. Then again, the JMA doesn't use super typhoon status.


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TYPHOON UTOR (T1311)
21:00 PM JST August 11 2013
===================================

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Oh, that is qualified as a super typhoon even though the JMA used 105 knots instead of normal 115 knots (10 min avg a normal RSMC would use for 130 knots)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
Quoting 659. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Utor was only rated a super typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. They're not the official agency for the West Pacific...the Joint Meteorological Agency is. The JMA assigned Utor a 120 mph peak intensity.

They use a different method of measuring wind speed don't they? Some agency uses average 10 minute wind speed. I think NHC goes with average 1 minute wind speed. There was a post where someone had tracked down the differences.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6020
Quoting 648. MississippiWx:


Yes, they said Cat 2 or 3 into the Gulf Coast yesterday. You are not incorrect. Also, you are better off not even engaging in conversation with that blogger.


ty, I remember you back in da day. I also remember the post,my first thought was WTF?, scurrying to look at models, then wanted to ask why do ppl post crap like that? Not sure the phrase "the only thing that stays the same is change" applies here
Member Since: August 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
Quoting 651. Tornado6042008X:
Can anyone guess what today is the 10 year anniversary of?...... probably. I just want to see how long it will take.
Anniversary of my divorce from that guy
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Tne cloudiness and showers around 50W seem to be to be getting bit more concentrated. although it is surrounded by dry air, it is moving into an area of relatively warmer SST where it can be able to create a more moist environment in which to organize.

MIGHT JUST BE 96L WHO KNOWS.
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662. csmda
Feels like that movie "Groundhog Day". I know we have recently heard ALL of this, including possible tracks when it comes to this particular area.
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661. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TYPHOON ODETTE
5:00 AM PhST September 19 2013
=================================================

"ODETTE" has intensified further as it continuous to move closer towards northern Luzon

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Odette [USAGI] (972 hPa) located at 17.2N 128.5E or 630 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Apayao
3. Isabela
4. Cagayan
5. Calayan
6. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the typhoon.

"ODETTE" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over MIMAROPA, western Visayas, and over the provinces of Zambales and Bataan. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan and over the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45281
Took me awhile to pick the right pictures and type the out but... a blog post on my adventures the past few weekends around Western North Carolina with many great pictures of forest, waterfalls, and mountain views! Enjoy!

Bluestorm5's Blog on Adventure in Asheville Part Two
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Quoting 656. pie314271:


The Western Pacific gave 1 super typhoon(Utor), but that was a mimimal, so I agree. Also, Manuel is reaching secondary peak.

I guess an argument could be made that it was a super typhoon even though the JMA doesn't OFFICIALLY use that status. It did have 140 mph 1-minute sustained winds (corrected).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31994
Quoting 654. MississippiWx:


18th Sept. 2003 : Hurricane Isabel strikes North Carolina's Outer Banks with 105 mph winds and continued up the Eastern Seaboard to West Virginia. The storm claimed 40 lives and left six million people without power . The storm surge from Isabel washed out a portion of Hatteras Island to create what locals called "Isabel Inlet" .
Nope. I was taking about my best friend's 7th birthday. And the first time that l rode my bike without falling.But that works too.








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657. MahFL
Quoting 637. MississippiWx:


Most people across the US won't care or notice.


Many won't know where the Gulf of Mexico actually is.......
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Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 85 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 105 mph. Zero majors hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific typhoon has officially (JMA) failed to produce a typhoon stronger than 120 mph. Zero super typhoons.

I'm not sure what is going on with the tropics globally, but something is screwed up.


The Western Pacific gave 1 super typhoon(Utor), but that was a mimimal, so I agree. Also, Manuel is reaching secondary peak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 85 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 105 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific typhoon has officially (JMA) failed to produce more than 2 "super typhoons".

I'm not sure what is going on with the tropics globally, but something is screwed up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31994
Quoting 651. Tornado6042008X:
Can anyone guess what today is the 10 year anniversary of?...... probably. I just want to see how long it will take.


18th Sept. 2003 : Hurricane Isabel strikes North Carolina's Outer Banks with 105 mph winds and continued up the Eastern Seaboard to West Virginia. The storm claimed 40 lives and left six million people without power . The storm surge from Isabel washed out a portion of Hatteras Island to create what locals called "Isabel Inlet" .
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653. MahFL
95L has 25 kts of NW shear on it, so development will be slow, aided though by the shape of the bay.
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Quoting 627. HurriHistory:
Just so you know, the NHC is now and has been located on the South Campus of FIU in Kendal. No longer in Coral Gables.


Thanks, I should have updated my loving term for the guys at the NHC...
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Can anyone guess what today is the 10 year anniversary of?...... probably. I just want to see how long it will take.
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
NWS, Wilmington, NC 3pm Discussion

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY AS
WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEDGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
LIFTS OUT TO SEA. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWEST TO INCREASE AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER AND ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER RATHER
THAN RAINFALL CHANCES. FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME THERE ARE
STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS ON TAP FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
STRONG
TROUGHINESS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD WHILE ALLOWING GOMEX MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS TO SURGE NORTHWARD. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY IN JUST 24 HOURS IN THEIR DEPICTION OF AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE CONGEALING FROM ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER GOMEX...POSSIBLY
RIGHT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
CMC SEEMS ERRONEOUSLY FAST AND NOT
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS OTHER GUIDANCE. MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING LOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SPARE OUR REGION A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT ALSO PLACE US IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEAVY RAIN.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERS FOR MOST OF MONDAY AS MAY SOME VERY
LIGHT RAIN AS MID LEVEL SPOKES OF VORTICITY PINWHEEL THROUGH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY APPLY TO TUESDAY AS WELL ASSUMING THE
INCREASINGLY EVER PRESENT SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTIONS COME TO PASS.
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Quoting 624. EllasD:

correct me if I am wrong but didn't you (or someone w/ the same type of name) say yesterday Cat 2 for NOLA?
.....Stormcat at it again....LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.