Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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749. VR46L
Quoting 744. BahaHurican:
People getting called trolled for it is sooo two months ago...


LMAO !!!

I thought It would get a laugh but I sense its not a laughing matter ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Looks like some rain may be on tap for the southeast

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. JLPR2
Looking much better, 95L seems to be on its way to TD status.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 714. redwagon:


All the impatient people have declared the season over, when it's demonstrably waking up, 8 days past the season 'peak'. Maybe that graph needs to be updated.

Go look at the SWCARIB and see the 'DEAD' forming there.
Our problem this season has not been the dead so much as the undead...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting 730. hurricanehunter5753:
As a kid, Isabel was actually the hurricane that first got me interested in meteorology as it was very unusual to be affected by a tropical storm where I am ( Toronto).
Hey. That is also the exact reason that I got interested in tracking hurricanes too. It was my very first real tropical system that I experienced in person. (7 years old)
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting 708. VR46L:


I so want to say this but I believe people get called troll for it ...

Oh Darn It

THE SEASON IS A BUST !!!!!!!!!!!!
People getting called trolled for it is sooo two months ago...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting 731. IKE:
From Tallahassee,Fl...

LONG TERM [Saturday night through next Wednesday]
A deep layer trough will translate quickly eastward across our
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday, with ample Q-G forcing
and deep layer moisture ahead of it. The GFS solution is a bit
faster than the ECMWF, but they are reasonably close. Our main
concern with this system is the threat for flash flooding (see
"HYDROLOGY" discussion below), as the GFS forecast Precip Water
values are about 2 standard deviations above climo. The forecast
for the early portion of the work week is for improving weather.
MOS doesn`t really show it yet but this type of large scale
weather pattern is usually associated with our first real taste of
early autumn (at least by Gulf Coast standards), as prolonged
deep layer north winds advect progressively cooler, drier air into
our region. Our temperature forecast in this package is very close
to climatology, but don`t be surprised to see a gradual cooling
trend in subsequent forecasts...IF the large scale pattern remains
unchanged.


We will also be watching a tropical cyclone (currently the broad
low pressure system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico) meandering
in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, as we do not expect the trough
passing through our region this weekend to "pick up" this system.



Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3247
Quoting 641. EyEtoEyE:
. I wonder why , when Denis Phillips says this weekend is going to be very wet , I guess the NHC , and Tallahassee , are wrong , as usual , they are just guessing !
You need to look at exactly what is being forecast. The two - Phillips and the NHC - are not mutually exclusive in this forecast...

Quoting 663. stoormfury:
Tne cloudiness and showers around 50W seem to be to be getting bit more concentrated. although it is surrounded by dry air, it is moving into an area of relatively warmer SST where it can be able to create a more moist environment in which to organize.

MIGHT JUST BE 96L WHO KNOWS.
We live in hope. I hate to think the CV season is done with what amounts to a whimper [Humberto].

Quoting 666. bappit:

They use a different method of measuring wind speed don't they? Some agency uses average 10 minute wind speed. I think NHC goes with average 1 minute wind speed. There was a post where someone had tracked down the differences.
There's a table out there that shows basic conversions between 10-min, 3-min, and 1-min averages. Need to look it up again.

Quoting 699. ncstorm:


yep..you right..its speculating..anyone contributing or even "speculating" this ONE season to GW can only be given the side eye..

here is the reason behind lack of hurricanes..
Yes, but what's CAUSING it to be so dry? The persistence of the dry air in what has been a neutral to coo-neutral ENSO is puzzling.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting 736. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Remember though we only have reliable data back since the 1850 when records started to be kept. So let's just say for the sake of it that there was a period in time before 1850 where we saw a similar stretch of lack of activity in particular lack of a hurricane making landfall on FL. like we are seeing today. It's very much possible. Who really knows though? This pattern could last for 5 more years or could be broken in October.

Yeah, I meant that for since the records began.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 737. catastropheadjuster:


Am i like on everyones ignore, or can anyone see me?

sheri


I gotchu, Sheri
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
say no! channel 2 orlando has tvnc? model heading south of tampa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 720. catastropheadjuster:


Baha, hey how ya doing? This is one weird season. I really think it's just about over. there is something out there stopping anything from growing. Hey was wondering have ya talked to KMAN, haven't seen him around or Floodman and a few others, I know the season is very very slow but usually they pop there heads in. I really hope Ails ( I can't remember how to spell her name but every morning we all enjoyed our virtuel breakfast she put on here,son is doing good, last I heard she was taking him to Hoschners hospital in N.O. . Haven't seen Mikatnight either with his pics of his doggy. And of course GROTHAR.

I hope I don't get banned for this. So what does everyone think 95L is gonna do?

sheri


Am i like on everyones ignore, or can anyone see me?

sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 728. opal92nwf:

If we go through this year without a:

1. Florida hurricane hit
2. US Major strike

It will and already is ridiculous how long it's been for either of the two, and from my calculations, this has been the longest stretch FL has not been hit by a hurricane.
^
I would think that the last statement would have gotten a little more publicity since that is pretty incredible.
Remember though we only have reliable data back since the 1850 when records started to be kept. So let's just say for the sake of it that there was a period in time before 1850 where we saw a similar stretch of lack of activity in particular lack of a hurricane making landfall on FL. like we are seeing today. It's very much possible. Who really knows though? This pattern could last for 5 more years or could be broken in October.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
If this was going to split and elongate to the NE like some are saying, then I think we would see more convection strung out on the NE side of this thing already. So if it becomes a solid, well organized tropical system now before the trough picks it up, then it may be able to stay as one tropical entity in the GOMEX.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 732. GTstormChaserCaleb:
So Cody tell me what causes that type of a pattern?

Troughing over the East is the climatologically-favored pattern. Out to sea is the climatologically-favored track, at least for systems east of 60W. The past 3 years have been nothing new. We've just seen so many tropical cyclones...70 since the start of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season...that it appears as if things have changed. Less than ideal conditions close to home have prevented us from getting big hurricane strikes there.

Everybody was spoiled by the seasons of 2004 and 2005.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Quoting 714. redwagon:


All the impatient people have declared the season over, when it's demonstrably waking up, 8 days past the season 'peak'. Maybe that graph needs to be updated.

Go look at the SWCARIB and see the 'DEAD' forming there.


Did you happen to see Keeper's post showing the forecasted surface analysis (2 days out, I think)? It didn't show the 'Panama low' at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 725. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ridging West and Central, troughing East. Same pattern since 2010.

So Cody tell me what causes that type of a pattern?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
731. IKE
From Tallahassee,Fl...

LONG TERM [Saturday night through next Wednesday]
A deep layer trough will translate quickly eastward across our
forecast area Saturday night and Sunday, with ample Q-G forcing
and deep layer moisture ahead of it. The GFS solution is a bit
faster than the ECMWF, but they are reasonably close. Our main
concern with this system is the threat for flash flooding (see
"HYDROLOGY" discussion below), as the GFS forecast Precip Water
values are about 2 standard deviations above climo. The forecast
for the early portion of the work week is for improving weather.
MOS doesn`t really show it yet but this type of large scale
weather pattern is usually associated with our first real taste of
early autumn (at least by Gulf Coast standards), as prolonged
deep layer north winds advect progressively cooler, drier air into
our region. Our temperature forecast in this package is very close
to climatology, but don`t be surprised to see a gradual cooling
trend in subsequent forecasts...IF the large scale pattern remains
unchanged.


We will also be watching a tropical cyclone (currently the broad
low pressure system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico) meandering
in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, as we do not expect the trough
passing through our region this weekend to "pick up" this system.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 721. Tornado6042008X:
I cannot think of a better looking hurricane than Isabel when it was in the Atlantic as a category 5 hurricane. Just a nearly perfect buzzsaw with a huge eye at the center.




As a kid, Isabel was actually the hurricane that first got me interested in meteorology as it was very unusual to be affected by a tropical storm where I am ( Toronto).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 716. reedzone:


I personally believe that we will have a big storm in October. Something has got to give in those very high TCHP.
SST may be favorable but if upper level winds and dry air is present it will not matter how hot they can be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 718. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok well feel free to give your insights on why you think the lack of storms hitting the CONUS for the past 5 years? As is the case there is always a cause and effect to something when dealing with science.

If we go through this year without a:

1. Florida hurricane hit
2. US Major strike

It will and already is ridiculous how long it's been for either of the two, and from my calculations, this has been the longest stretch FL has not been hit by a hurricane.
^
I would think that the last statement would have gotten a little more publicity since that is pretty incredible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Manuel movin inland .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 718. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Ok well feel free to give your insights on why you think the lack of storms hitting the CONUS for the past 5 years? As is the case there is always a cause and effect to something when dealing with science.



Oh no I agree, it's caused by something. I just think the whole thing is too dynamic for us to understand yet. If supercomputers who can do millions of calculations a second are getting fooled, I doubt we can do much better as of now.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Ridging West and Central, troughing East. Same pattern since 2010.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32039
Quoting 722. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Something will give eventually and it may not necessarily be a tropical system, it may be a winter time system. Like I said earlier nature finds away to balance itself out. The fact that globally tropical activity has been down can only mean that winter time will be the complete opposite.



Tell that to the Sahara desert :p
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Quoting 679. KoritheMan:


LOL

Were people actually saying that?

Wow.

Well last I checked the Hwrf had a 90-something mph hurricane hitting the FL Panhandle, so at least there is some reason for those predictions.

Hey, what if this is the one time the HWRF is right! Wouldn't that be something.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 716. reedzone:


I personally believe that we will have a big storm in October. Something has got to give in those very high TCHP.
Something will give eventually and it may not necessarily be a tropical system, it may be a winter time system. Like I said earlier nature finds away to balance itself out. The fact that globally tropical activity has been down can only mean that winter time will be the complete opposite.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
Quoting 669. VR46L:




I cannot think of a better looking hurricane than Isabel when it was in the Atlantic as a category 5 hurricane. Just a nearly perfect buzzsaw with a huge eye at the center.




Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 320
Quoting 704. BahaHurican:
Thanks for reminding... I need 2 replace mine that got damaged in the last major hurricane [scare] we had last month....


Baha, hey how ya doing? This is one weird season. I really think it's just about over. there is something out there stopping anything from growing. Hey was wondering have ya talked to KMAN, haven't seen him around or Floodman and a few others, I know the season is very very slow but usually they pop there heads in. I really hope Ails ( I can't remember how to spell her name but every morning we all enjoyed our virtuel breakfast she put on here,son is doing good, last I heard she was taking him to Hoschners hospital in N.O. . Haven't seen Mikatnight either with his pics of his doggy. And of course GROTHAR.

I hope I don't get banned for this. So what does everyone think 95L is gonna do?

sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 716. reedzone:


I personally believe that we will have a big storm in October. Something has got to give in those very high TCHP.

Naw. The heat can dissipate into the atmosphere and through the world's oceans (through the Florida Current, Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Drift and whatever else) without an organized atmospheric circulation directly overhead stirring things up.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6025
Quoting 715. VAbeachhurricanes:



I don't think it is that simple
Ok well feel free to give your insights on why you think the lack of storms hitting the CONUS for the past 5 years? As is the case there is always a cause and effect to something when dealing with science.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 705. wxchaser97:



BTW, it's 73F outside, so no freezing myself yet. :D


Low of the 56 last night in OC California. Nice!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 700. GTstormChaserCaleb:
9/2/0 unless something amazing happens in October this season is going to bust numbers wise. At this point the notion of "it only takes one" would make this a memorable season, if that doesn't happen, we probably won't remember this season or care to remember it 20 years from now.


I personally believe that we will have a big storm in October. Something has got to give in those very high TCHP.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting 712. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Here's another thought the persistent drought in Texas causing Cape-Verde Hurricanes to recurve or lack of major hurricanes in the Gulf. Break that pattern, break the trends in sea ice melt, and right back to normal with long track Cape-Verde Hurricanes and Gulf Storms pre-2006 and post-1995.



I don't think it is that simple
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
Quoting 702. KoritheMan:


There have been a lot of similarly inactive seasons that exploded in the western Atlantic region during the latter half of the season. Any major hurricanes are going to come from the Caribbean region.


All the impatient people have declared the season over, when it's demonstrably waking up, 8 days past the season 'peak'. Maybe that graph needs to be updated.

Go look at the SWCARIB and see the 'DEAD' forming there.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3247
GFS continues to show the more right solution and it being NON TROPICAL, I am going with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's another thought the persistent drought in Texas causing Cape-Verde Hurricanes to recurve or lack of major hurricanes in the Gulf. Break that pattern, break the trends in sea ice melt, and right back to normal with long track Cape-Verde Hurricanes and Gulf Storms pre-2006 and post-1995.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
711. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
6:00 AM JST September 19 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (955 hPa) located at 17.0N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.9N 125.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.2N 123.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
69 HRS: 21.6N 119.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
POLL
Does anyone think we will see anything outta this storm?
A YES
B NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
709. VR46L
Quoting 703. txjac:


I like the orange one ...rides the Texas coast


Fingers and toes crossed TxJac :)
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
708. VR46L
Quoting 687. washingtonian115:
Bad memories..baaaad memories..
You know I seriously forgot it was hurricane season.Like I really did.I had to be reminded about hurricane season by my local mets.Then I had almost forgotten about this site.Since there is nothing gong on in the tropics I'm leaving.Go and proceed.


I so want to say this but I believe people get called troll for it ...

Oh Darn It

THE SEASON IS A BUST !!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting 699. ncstorm:


yep..you right..its speculating..anyone contributing or even "speculating" this ONE season to GW can only be given the side eye..

here is the reason behind lack of hurricanes..
From a steering stand point, what is contributing to that? I've heard things like +/-PDO and +/-NAO thrown around on here a lot. I really want to study this further. What's causing Cape-Verde hurricanes to recurve?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
That boulder picture reminds me of this video posted a couple weeks ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6eur_3nAic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 697. MississippiWx:


Zack, go freeze yourself or whatever you people do in Michigan for fun.



BTW, it's 73F outside, so no freezing myself yet. :D
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Quoting 626. HurriHistory:
I agree. Let's break out the storm shutters and start boarding up the windows. Might as well get a jump on things seeing how October is just around the corner. Darn!!! Now where did I put my sterno cooker.
Thanks for reminding... I need 2 replace mine that got damaged in the last major hurricane [scare] we had last month....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
703. txjac
Quoting 522. RTSplayer:
95L:



We have the utmost confidence the precision and accuracy of these computer model forecasts. They should be taken seriously, as 95L is going everywhere.


I like the orange one ...rides the Texas coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 680. Tropicsweatherpr:


Kori,you think the 2013 Atlantic season will have a major cane sometime in October or November despite the unusual season so far?


There have been a lot of similarly inactive seasons that exploded in the western Atlantic region during the latter half of the season. Any major hurricanes are going to come from the Caribbean region.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
701. EllasD
9:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2013
Quoting 679. KoritheMan:


LOL

Were people actually saying that?

Wow.


yes, it was said. Living in Biloxi, when you see cat "anything" for the GC, it catches your attention.

Funny thing is, it's quite clear the ppl who spew that crap have never been thru a hurricane and all the aftermath of a storm.
Member Since: August 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
700. GTstormChaserCaleb
9:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2013
Quoting 694. reedzone:
Ahh, good to use a PC... Well I will admit I was wrong on Ingrid's strength. Could have sworn I saw her strengthening when obs showed pressures rising and the storm weakening to TS strength.

As for 95L?
Probably one of those storms where it strengthens a bit in the BOC, then decouples as the mid level energy gets forced to the NE while the LLC stalls and dies in the BOC. Interesting year, but deff not boring. I found Ingrid a very fascinating storm being it was so close to Manuel.
9/2/0 unless something amazing happens in October this season is going to bust numbers wise. At this point the notion of "it only takes one" would make this a memorable season, if that doesn't happen, we probably won't remember this season or care to remember it 20 years from now.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8268
699. ncstorm
9:56 PM GMT on September 18, 2013
Quoting 689. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's too early to say and their is not much evidence behind it nor enough research done on it on the impacts Global Warming will have on future hurricane seasons. Some of us have already distinguished that the melting sea ice in the Arctic is causing a blocking that has affected the path of Cape-Verde storms and even the storms that have developed in the Western Caribbean have gone on to hit the Yucatan or Central America or moved out of the Caribbean heading northeast avoiding the Gulf Coast states. That leaves a void of storms passing through the GOM and a lot more have been focused in the BOC and Tropical/Subtropical Atlantic. Now before you all try to beat me across the head, I understand we here in the States have dealt with Isaac, Ike, Irene, and Sandy, but before 2006 we had multiple 2+ storms coming from the Cape-Verdes and Caribbean. So perhaps it may still come across as speculation, like I said the research is still ongoing and there could still be other reasons than Global Warming as to why we are seeing this persistent pattern.


yep..you right..its speculating..anyone contributing or even "speculating" this ONE season to GW can only be given the side eye..

here is the reason behind lack of hurricanes..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.