Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 786. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You already said that.

Apparently it bears repeating.
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Quoting 786. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You already said that Allan. :P
Sorry cods I am too busy with physics and economy I didn`t pay attention,So I thought I haven`t post,But thanks I will modify my post.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4311
Quoting 778. Civicane49:


Impressive system.


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Quoting 787. stormwatcherCI:
Stop being a brat.
LOL... hey, neighbour...

As for 95L, tonight's the night.... there's a Michael Jackson song out there for nights like this... [though I haven't a clue what it's called ... lol]

I'll check in later.
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Quoting 787. stormwatcherCI:
Stop being a brat.

Lol, what?
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794. beell
Misbehavin' Mannie
Today's 8AM (top) and 2PM PDT (bottom) 3-day forecast graphics.



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Quoting 775. KoritheMan:


Scott, I know you're still holding out for 95L, but just wait. Kvetching isn't going to bring him into either of our directions. :)
I hear ya, Lol!
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Quoting 777. Neapolitan:
Of course, by the same token, anyone stating with any certainty at all that there's absolutely no correlation whatsoever between this year's lack of tropical activity--and between this year's heat, and massive flood events, and massive droughts, and massive fires, and lack of tornadoes, and so on--and our rapidly-changing climate is certainly talking nonsense, as I'm sure you'll agree.
Someone told me the Earth is going to burst into flames. We will be begging for canes if this process occurs.
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Quoting 766. bappit:

They don't destroy energy. (Can't be done.) They occur so sporadically that it is meaningless to describe their purpose as being heat transfer. Other mechanisms transfer heat all the time and are the mainstay of the circulation. In fact, TC's can't form unless they have a moist environment to begin with which makes their activity just more of the same really. I think their real purpose is to amuse the gods.




They do more than that. The refill lakes that about to be declared DOA.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3237
Quoting 785. KoritheMan:


I wouldn't claim it with certainty, but I don't think the lack of tropical cyclone activity on Earth this year has anything to do with climate change. It's probably just a global circulation pattern. We've observed this in other years as well, like 1977.

If it happens more often than not, we might have an argument. But nobody knows how climate change affects the planet just yet, aside from the very bare basics.
Agreed. I'd certainly be studying this year closely in order to understand the underlying factors that resulted in the current outcome, but I don't think the season can be attributed to any particular pattern or change in pattern just yet.

We still have a lot of work to do.
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Quoting 779. KoritheMan:


I don't think so. Still appears WNW to me.

A little hard to tell with visible going down for the day, though.




I agree that it's going WNW, maybe the better phrase is that it will be south of model guidance. That convection on it's south side has the look like it's going to to continue to build and with no convection elsewhere in the system I could see that convection dragging it back a bit. Something to watch.
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Quoting 786. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You already said that.
Stop being a brat.
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Quoting 780. allancalderini:
SST may be favorable but if upper level winds and dry air is present it will not matter how hot they can be.

You already said that Allan. :P
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Quoting 777. Neapolitan:
Of course, by the same token, anyone stating with any certainty at all that there's absolutely no correlation whatsoever between this year's lack of tropical activity--and between this year's heat, and massive flood events, and massive droughts, and massive fires, and lack of tornadoes, and so on--and our rapidly-changing climate is certainly talking nonsense, as I'm sure you'll agree.


I wouldn't claim it with certainty, but I don't think the lack of tropical cyclone activity on Earth this year has anything to do with climate change. It's probably just a global circulation pattern. We've observed this in other years as well, like 1977.

If it happens more often than not, we might have an argument. But nobody knows how climate change affects the planet just yet, aside from the very bare basics.
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Honestly with the stream of tropical moisture for Florida and other ares of the Northern Gulf Coast, we would not really need an actually tropical system

you will get rain and wind and likely some squally weather anyway even without a low pressure
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Quoting 765. VR46L:


You may well be right but I doubt after this landfall he will be around much later on

IIRC, isn't it forecast to bounce off the mainland - again - and then hit the Baja before it finally goes away?
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Quoting 773. scott39:
Im hearing and reading that some Mets and Dr. Masters thinking, is that this trough is not going to be strong enough to "flush" out 95L from the BOC. Alot of models say different. Weather doesnt play buy our rules and is constantly changing.
I actually see the moisture stripping being described by several of these groups as a pretty logical interaction, especially given what we've seen this year. That would give impetus to the front as it moves eastward while leaving the tropical CoC behind. It would fit both model groups.
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Quoting 777. Neapolitan:
Of course, by the same token, anyone stating with any certainty at all that there's absolutely no correlation whatsoever between this year's lack of tropical activity--and between this year's heat, and massive flood events, and massive droughts, and massive fires, and lack of tornadoes, and so on--and our rapidly-changing climate is certainly talking nonsense, as I'm sure you'll agree.


You can not blame one anomalous year on GW.
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Sorry I confuse.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4311
Quoting 776. ILwthrfan:


Wondering if the llc is getting pulled a bit more south towards the Southern BOC?


I don't think so. Still appears WNW to me.

A little hard to tell with visible going down for the day, though.
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Sun rising over Usagi:

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Quoting 699. ncstorm:


yep..you right..its speculating..anyone contributing or even "speculating" this ONE season to GW can only be given the side eye..

here is the reason behind lack of hurricanes..
Of course, by the same token, anyone stating with any certainty at all that there's absolutely no correlation whatsoever between this year's lack of tropical activity--and between this year's heat, and massive flood events, and massive droughts, and massive fires, and lack of tornadoes, and so on--and our rapidly-changing climate is certainly talking nonsense, as I'm sure you'll agree.
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Quoting 769. KoritheMan:


It looks better than earlier, that's for sure.

Movement was never supposed to be NW. Steering favors slow WNW until the trough breaks down the ridge over the Gulf Coast.


Wondering if the llc is getting pulled a bit more south towards the Southern BOC?
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Quoting 773. scott39:
Im hearing and reading that some Mets and Dr. Masters thinking, is that this trough is not going to be strong enough to "flush" out 95L from the BOC. Alot of models say different. Weather doesnt play buy our rules and is constantly changing.


Scott, I know you're still holding out for 95L, but just wait. Kvetching isn't going to bring him into either of our directions. :)
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Quoting 765. VR46L:


You may well be right but I doubt after this landfall he will be around much later on



This could be the second strongest most north land-falling system on Mexico's West Coast. Very rare event.




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Im hearing and reading that some Mets and Dr. Masters thinking, is that this trough is not going to be strong enough to "flush" out 95L from the BOC. Alot of models say different. Weather doesnt play buy our rules and is constantly changing.
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Quoting 762. opal92nwf:
LOL

Andrea has been the biggest storm this year in terms of impact to the US


Biggest? You mean ONLY!
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Quoting 749. VR46L:


LMAO !!!

I thought It would get a laugh but I sense its not a laughing matter ...
LOL... Saying the season is a bust after 4 storms all before the end of July is a bit... premature.... lol ... In mid-September it feels more like a description... lol

The thing is, 2013 has been so weird, and like said before, has been a real zombie season, that I would not at all be surprised to see 6 hurricanes, including 4 majors, in OCT and NOV. Having said that, though, I have to admit I also wouldn't be surprised if we get to 16 named storms without a single major or even an additional hurricane.

This has been 1 freaky year.
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Quoting 768. FOREX:


It looks like 95L is looking a lot better the last few hours, your thoughts? Still looks more wnw than nw though.


It looks better than earlier, that's for sure.

Movement was never supposed to be NW. Steering favors slow WNW until the trough breaks down the ridge over the Gulf Coast.
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768. FOREX
Quoting 764. KoritheMan:


Louisiana's actually gotten more hurricanes than Florida since 2007.

I'm still hoping 95L pays me a visit as a tropical entity of some kind.


It looks like 95L is looking a lot better the last few hours, your thoughts? Still looks more wnw than nw though.
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Quoting 737. catastropheadjuster:


Am i like on everyones ignore, or can anyone see me?

sheri


I see you. Why would you be on any ones list?
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Quoting 750. CosmicEvents:
[...] Humberto in any case continues to be the gift that keeps giving, boosting the ACE. Just going about his business destroying and transfering heat to the northern fringe of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.


They don't destroy energy. (Can't be done.) They occur so sporadically that it is meaningless to describe their purpose as being heat transfer. Other mechanisms transfer heat all the time and are the mainstay of the circulation. In fact, TC's can't form unless they have a moist environment to begin with which makes their activity just more of the same really. I think their real purpose is to amuse the gods.
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765. VR46L
Quoting 758. ILwthrfan:
Manuel is certainly one impressive system relative to it's geography, man has it found a small little hot spot. Storm has to be a Hurricane.



LINK TO RADARS



You may well be right but I doubt after this landfall he will be around much later on

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Quoting 761. opal92nwf:
After witnessing derechos and severe thunderstorms during the 3 years I lived in Illinois and enjoying them immensely, I realized that I wanted to see the next step, a hurricane when I moved back to FL.

But of course the period of 2007-2013 has not been very good if you are one of the few who want to see a hurricane in FL.
"sigh"

Seven years of waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting is a long time, and 2013 is becoming the straw that broke the camel's back for me..


Louisiana's actually gotten more hurricanes than Florida since 2007.

I'm still hoping 95L pays me a visit as a tropical entity of some kind.
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Quoting 737. catastropheadjuster:


Am i like on everyones ignore, or can anyone see me?

sheri
Sorry I took so long to answer... went to eat dinner.
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LOL

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After witnessing derechos and severe thunderstorms during the 3 years I lived in Illinois and enjoying them immensely, I realized that I wanted to see the next step, a hurricane when I moved back to FL.

But of course the period of 2007-2013 has not been very good if you are one of the few who want to see a hurricane in FL.
"sigh"

Seven years of waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting is a long time, and 2013 is becoming the straw that broke the camel's back for me..
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Quoting 722. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Something will give eventually and it may not necessarily be a tropical system, it may be a winter time system. Like I said earlier nature finds away to balance itself out. The fact that globally tropical activity has been down can only mean that winter time will be the complete opposite.
Another possibility is a superactive Shemisphere season. I've been wondering if we'll see a lot more activity in the SIndian and the Aussie theatres than normal because we were so down in our half of the globe this year. You realize we barely had any disturbances in the BOB area this year?

It also seems this year we had a lot of non-TC heavy rainfall events around the N hemisphere during the season. Those massive AEWs that flooded parts of Africa, the weird Indian monsoon season, the upslope Rockies events - and I'm sure there others we could name - all seem to have focused precipitation energy away from the tropics in some mundane sort of way.
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Quoting 742. BahaHurican:
You need to look at exactly what is being forecast. The two - Phillips and the NHC - are not mutually exclusive in this forecast...

We live in hope. I hate to think the CV season is done with what amounts to a whimper [Humberto].

There's a table out there that shows basic conversions between 10-min, 3-min, and 1-min averages. Need to look it up again.

Yes, but what's CAUSING it to be so dry? The persistence of the dry air in what has been a neutral to coo-neutral ENSO is puzzling.


A lack of sunspots?
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Manuel is certainly one impressive system relative to it's geography, man has it found a small little hot spot. Storm has to be a Hurricane.



LINK TO RADARS

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Quoting 669. VR46L:





I totally forgot, this storm wrecked my house and got me deeply interested in weather
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Quoting 686. redwagon:


Globally late?


More like globally destitute. For the rest of the year, most likely.

1977 was also like this.
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Quoting 701. EllasD:


yes, it was said. Living in Biloxi, when you see cat "anything" for the GC, it catches your attention.

Funny thing is, it's quite clear the ppl who spew that crap have never been thru a hurricane and all the aftermath of a storm.


I don't think that has anything to do with it.

I think it's just ignorance. If they understood the meteorological parameters at all, they wouldn't be saying 95L will be a major hurricane. Nothing supports that.
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Quoting 721. Tornado6042008X:
I cannot think of a better looking hurricane than Isabel when it was in the Atlantic as a category 5 hurricane. Just a nearly perfect buzzsaw with a huge eye at the center.




That's one reason it's my avatar... lol Best annular, 3-time cat-5, scariest storm that never hit the Bahamas....
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Quoting 733. LAbonbon:


Did you happen to see Keeper's post showing the forecasted surface analysis (2 days out, I think)? It didn't show the 'Panama low' at all.


It just popped up at about 10am central. Went from a 100-mile across blob to a 700-mile across blob in 8 hours. Needless to say, moisture reservoir is unlimited.
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Quoting 737. catastropheadjuster:


Am i like on everyones ignore, or can anyone see me?

sheri


I can't see you at all.
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Quoting 720. catastropheadjuster:


Baha, hey how ya doing? This is one weird season. I really think it's just about over. there is something out there stopping anything from growing. Hey was wondering have ya talked to KMAN, haven't seen him around or Floodman and a few others, I know the season is very very slow but usually they pop there heads in. I really hope Ails ( I can't remember how to spell her name but every morning we all enjoyed our virtuel breakfast she put on here,son is doing good, last I heard she was taking him to Hoschners hospital in N.O. . Haven't seen Mikatnight either with his pics of his doggy. And of course GROTHAR.

I hope I don't get banned for this. So what does everyone think 95L is gonna do?

sheri
Hey, Sher... can't see banning just for trying to find out where fellow bloggers are at... I think I saw kman here very briefly on the weekend, but he usually only checks in when it looks like something may form. Maybe later this week. Flood I haven't seen in a while.... Aislinn was in this morning.... says her boy is bored... lol... not surprised at that... he came though the surgery well, and she seems okay. I've missed mik the last couple days, but then I haven't been keeping up with the wunderpics as usual, either.

How are you doing? I know I've seen several discussions and forecast maps here saying heavy rains for most of FL this weekend. [hopefully not like we saw last week in CO]
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Quoting 678. TropicalAnalystwx13:
For whoever cares, I have updated and double-checked all the values for both the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ACE calc and 2013 Pacific hurricane season ACE calc pages. Everything should be accurate.

Atlantic: 23.4425 units
East/Central Pacific: 47.265 units
I care. thanks
And I'd advise looking into wiki's basic definition of ACE. There's no mention of what it is, beyond that it's a "measure" of cyclone activity. Measure of what? Destructive potential I thought was part of it, as is energy/heat transfer, yet I don't see either of these mentioned in the official wiki definition of what ACE measures.
.
Humberto in any case continues to be the gift that keeps giving, boosting the ACE. Just going about his business destroying and transfering heat to the northern fringe of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

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749. VR46L
Quoting 744. BahaHurican:
People getting called trolled for it is sooo two months ago...


LMAO !!!

I thought It would get a laugh but I sense its not a laughing matter ...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.