Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 840. FWBRuss:
Truely Gulf Breeze, FL? Then Ike, Doug, you, and I know the power of BOC storms. If so, welcome neihbor, although reading through lurking, you have more road time than I.



Yes, Opal comes to mind when someone says "BOC Storm". For those in Pensacola it was the storm that never got here. Very little damage and only a few power outages. For those on the beach, it was the Storm Surge From Hell. Massive amounts of damage. She had built up a huge surge down in the Gulf and fell apart before hitting land. Once those swells are generated, only the land will stop them.
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Quoting 796. BahaHurican:
LOL... hey, neighbour...

As for 95L, tonight's the night.... there's a Michael Jackson song out there for nights like this... [though I haven't a clue what it's called ... lol]

I'll check in later.
MJ? Hua few bars, maybe we will get it, else back to millibars thinking...
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Manuel is alive!!!!
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY...
AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS LOW TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14548
Quoting 829. Thing342:
Local mets (Hampton Roads, VA) think 95L will become Jerry and bring moisture up the coast. What do you guys think?

The moisture is there whether Jerry forms or not. The Houston-Galveston NWS office yesterday was talking about total precipitable water in the area that was two standard deviations above the mean. The trough will bring a front that will concentrate moisture from the GOM and transport it north on a long journey to the UK or thereabouts with a brief stop in VA.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090
Quoting 826. TropicalAnalystwx13:

As I said, bad at detecting. You scared me, I thought I had done something wrong lol.


Remember when we were guessing HOW MANY major hurricanes were going to get in October, not IF we were going to get one in October? Yeah, I don't either.

Pepperidge Farms remembers.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7958
Manuel is a hurricane. 'Nuff said.
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Quoting 839. VR46L:

LMAO !!!

rock music ,oil and the CHART ....My Goodness!!!


I thought that looked familiar =D
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Quoting 830. GulfBreezer:
Hmmmm, Very interesting....



Truely Gulf Breeze, FL? Then Ike, Doug, you, and I know the power of BOC storms. If so, welcome neihbor, although reading through lurking, you have more road time than I.
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839. VR46L
Quoting 830. GulfBreezer:
Hmmmm, Very interesting....




LMAO !!!

rock music ,oil and the CHART ....My Goodness!!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
Quoting 828. FOREX:


With it being so far south is there anything that would stop it from making a mexico landfall?


It could, but look at the most NW of the OSCAT windfield... it's at the border. I hope MX doesn't take any more destruction...bring IT! to TX.
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it's raining on Leon Guanajuato Mexico
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Quoting 829. Thing342:
Local mets (Hampton Roads, VA) think 95L will become Jerry and bring moisture up the coast. What do you guys think?


something may spin off from 95L and bring moisture north but it wont be the actual 95L is my thinking
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...MANUEL BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL ALREADY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
5:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18
Location: 24.3°N 108.0°W
Moving: N at 5 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24458
Quoting 830. GulfBreezer:
Hmmmm, Very interesting....





...what?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24458
Good evening, morning, night to all!

Just pulled up thr local Noaa forecast for Northwest FL panhandle.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH TAPS INTO DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES LOOKS
LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 TO 5 INCHES. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE A WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ALONG AREA BEACHES...AND
POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.


Hoping this means rains in Texas, Brazil, or Ecaudor, but not likely. :(
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Quoting 830. GulfBreezer:
Hmmmm, Very interesting....





There's also a very strong correlation between IQ and shoe size. :)
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Quoting 815. guygee:
Supercharged SSTs in the Gulf of California could make for rapid intensification in a small system that can "thread the needle" ... the close proximity of high terrain is a limiting factor.


At 2AM this morning Manuel had a pressure of 1002 MB, 12 hours later @ 2PM today its pressure is now at 988 MB. 14 MB in 12 hours. Not bad in a half days work.

2AM advisory

2PM Advisory

It would not surprise me if this somewhere at 982 MB right now maybe even 980 MB.

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Hmmmm, Very interesting....



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Local mets (Hampton Roads, VA) think 95L will become Jerry and bring moisture up the coast. What do you guys think?
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828. FOREX
Quoting 825. redwagon:




It is now not unreasonable to call for the Wrn storm of '95L' to landfall TX/MX, and the Ern half Miami.


With it being so far south is there anything that would stop it from making a mexico landfall?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Quoting 816. CybrTeddy:


2012 might as well not have had any major hurricanes for how quick they were. Sandy and Michael were major hurricanes for only a few hours.
Still they were,I believe if it wasn`t for Sandy 2012 will not be that remember.
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Quoting 819. stormwatcherCI:
Yes, it was a joke.

As I said, bad at detecting. You scared me, I thought I had done something wrong lol.

Quoting 820. CybrTeddy:
IMO, decent chance 2013 will become the first hurricane season since 1994 to feature no major hurricanes. Could get one in October or November in the western Caribbean, so I'm not ruling it out based off the ECMWF precip forecast for the Caribbean.

Remember when we were guessing HOW MANY major hurricanes were going to get in October, not IF we were going to get one in October? Yeah, I don't either.
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Quoting 812. redwagon:




Just in case anybody missed it.




It is now not unreasonable to call for the Wrn storm of '95L' to landfall TX/MX, and the Ern half Miami.
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Quoting 803. acl8610:

With eight years since the last hurricane and nearly seven since the last significant wintertime tornado outbreak, Floridians, especially newcomers, are forgetting just how dangerous meteorologically this place is...


Amen
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Quoting 809. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a little confused how telling my friend he already posted a comment a few minutes prior qualifies me as being a brat (unless it was a joke, and I'm not good at detecting those online.)

I thought it was worth repeating. I was just mulling over posting something like that. For instance, if tropical cyclones are so crucial in the global circulation then why do so many things have to come together just right? My answer: it has little to do with the global circulation. Tropical cyclones are here just to amuse the gods.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090
Quoting 818. CybrTeddy:


Still a major hurricane, Andrew was only a Category 5 hurricane for a brief period of time as well.
Most Cat 5 hurricanes do not maintain that strength for any lengthy period but fluctuate up and down from Cat 4-Cat 5.
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48 frame Loop
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IMO, decent chance 2013 will become the first hurricane season since 1994 to feature no major hurricanes. Could get one in October or November in the western Caribbean, so I'm not ruling it out based off the ECMWF precip forecast for the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24458
Quoting 809. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a little confused how telling my friend he already posted a comment a few minutes prior qualifies me as being a brat (unless it was a joke, and I'm not good at detecting those online.)
Yes, it was a joke.
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Quoting 817. bappit:

It's fantasy meteorology. A major for one advisory? Score the point!


Still a major hurricane, Andrew was only a Category 5 hurricane for a brief period of time as well.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24458
Quoting 816. CybrTeddy:


2012 might as well not have had any major hurricanes for how quick they were. Sandy and Michael were major hurricanes for only a few hours.

It's fantasy meteorology. A major for one advisory? Score the point!
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090
Quoting 810. allancalderini:
Gosh if 2013 for some reason ends without a major and 2014 becomes an El Niño the blog will go crazy.I am not sure why it has been so hard to get majors in the Atlantic this past 2 years.2012 only end with two.


2012 might as well not have had any major hurricanes for how quick they were. Sandy and Michael were major hurricanes for only a few hours.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24458
Quoting 774. ILwthrfan:


This could be the second strongest most north land-falling system on Mexico's West Coast. Very rare event.




Supercharged SSTs in the Gulf of California could make for rapid intensification in a small system that can "thread the needle" ... the close proximity of high terrain is a limiting factor.
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Link

Before-and-after photos of the 2013 Colorado floods

I'm really gone now... lol
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Quoting 809. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a little confused how telling my friend he already posted a comment qualifies me as being a brat.
Thanks.:D.I fix it.If you ever take economics or physics be sure to be good at math though,and you are not a brat.
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Quoting 789. stormpetrol:




Just in case anybody missed it.
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Quoting 800. CybrTeddy:


No focus of heat in any basins as the water near the poles are already quite warm. Hurricanes act as A/C units, disbursing heat to the poles. Major tropical cyclone development is becoming less and less necessary as the years go by. 2014 needs to be a El Nino for any sort of rebound year in terms of ACE in the Pacific.
Gosh if 2013 for some reason ends without a major and 2014 becomes an El Niño the blog will go crazy.I am not sure why it has been so hard to get majors in the Atlantic this past 2 years.2012 only end with two.
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Quoting 799. bappit:

Apparently it bears repeating.

No, just a little confused how telling my friend he already posted a comment a few minutes prior qualifies me as being a brat (unless it was a joke, and I'm not good at detecting those online.)
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Quoting 802. stormwatcherCI:
Hi. I know some people(Kori and Cody) are missing the MH this year but I for one am thankful.
Agreed. I just which the "waiting for the other shoe to drop" feeling would go away...
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YOu guys want to find out why weather is like it is just go back and look at history,you will find ayear just like this one.weather goes in patterns,nothing new under the sun.Pretty simple way to find out a little work and study and you will find the answer.
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806. FOREX
Quoting 793. scott39:
I hear ya, Lol!


Besides the impending trough this weekend, is there anything else keeping 95L from going straight into Mexico?
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
Good Evening... 95L doing well after reaching BOC waters. Should be able to do well enough to be classified a TD later tonight or tomorrow as long as it stays below 23N while the ULAC over Manuel starts to impart some of it influence over 95L as time progresses.
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Quoting 789. stormpetrol:


Well, there you go. TWO systems. Thanks. Now maybe the 95L argument can advance, with knowledge aforehand.
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Quoting 736. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Remember though we only have reliable data back since the 1850 when records started to be kept. So let's just say for the sake of it that there was a period in time before 1850 where we saw a similar stretch of lack of activity in particular lack of a hurricane making landfall on FL. like we are seeing today. It's very much possible. Who really knows though? This pattern could last for 5 more years or could be broken in October.

With eight years since the last hurricane and nearly seven since the last significant wintertime tornado outbreak, Floridians, especially newcomers, are forgetting just how dangerous meteorologically this place is...
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Quoting 796. BahaHurican:
LOL... hey, neighbour...

As for 95L, tonight's the night.... there's a Michael Jackson song out there for nights like this... [though I haven't a clue what it's called ... lol]

I'll check in later.
Hi. I know some people(Kori and Cody) are missing the MH this year but I for one am thankful.
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Quoting 787. stormwatcherCI:
Stop being a brat.



LOL
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Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 85 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific hurricane season has failed to produce a hurricane stronger than 105 mph. Zero major hurricanes.

The 2013 Pacific typhoon has officially (JMA) failed to produce more than 2 "super typhoons".

I'm not sure what is going on with the tropics globally, but something is screwed up.


No focus of heat in any basins as the water near the poles are already quite warm. Hurricanes act as A/C units, disbursing heat to the poles. Major tropical cyclone development is becoming less and less necessary as the years go by. 2014 needs to be a El Nino for any sort of rebound year in terms of ACE in the Pacific.
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Quoting 786. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You already said that.

Apparently it bears repeating.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6090

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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