Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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EP, 13, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 243N, 1080W, 65, 987, HU
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
There should be some huge changes to the best track for Hurricane Manuel in post-season analysis. This is a microwave pass from 2z September 18 (7pm PDT/10pm EDT last night). Nearly complete eyewall:



Satellite imagery at the time:



I dismissed it as a clear slot when in fact it was an eye.
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Quoting 886. AtHomeInTX:


Go back in time? lol. It's the only thing I can figure out to do.
If my synopsis is correct, we are all dumb in a potential good forecast for about 24-36 hours. I'm baffled...and REALLY want to take a vacation that would impact my life in FL panhandle if i did.
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Quoting 894. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
La Paz, Baja California now ..


Mexico sure has some nice coastal webcams
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Did everyone take a break tonight? The slow switch is flipped on...
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La Paz, Baja California now ..
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Quoting 886. AtHomeInTX:


Go back in time? lol. It's the only thing I can figure out to do.


OK! Allison time! lol

Bmm bmm bmm Bmm can't forecast this bm bmm bmm bmm it's Allison time!

/hammer
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Quoting 872. BahaHurican:
Probably "Off the Wall".... lol
You may have gotten me there with the Micheal Jackson thought, last name is Jackson!

No challenge, lurked for years, and just wanted to chat with some of you that hold more knowledge than my 35 years of working at a Government test site 200' from the beach. I see things, you guys explain why!
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Quoting 862. crankin:
Hi all. Longtime lurker here.

This mess down in the Yucatan seems to have a lot of energy, as there has been a persistent east wind flow in Tampa, and a squall very much like a tropical rainband just came through. No lightning, just heavy rain and winds.

In the past, when something has actually developed and affected my area, there has been a very broad, far reaching wind flow pattern with it. I think this one's going to pop IMHO.


yea, st. augustine lurker here, having conditions quite similar to when cyclones pass us by. actually thats the whole reason i came to the blog tonight :) (not that i would ever intentionally avoid you lovelies, but its been a little heated in here lately, the slow season has people testy it seems) anyhow, regardless of the cause, im fully enjoying my open windows tonight
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Quoting 886. AtHomeInTX:


Go back in time? lol. It's the only thing I can figure out to do.


Play off the wall a few times???

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Quoting 884. FWBRuss:
Maybe I am wrong, and a Texan can straighten me out, I belive Texans would love to see a Billion dollar loss due to flooding, so that the rest of the state could see 10 billion in profit. The state does need rain, and if 10% is too much for some, the others would gladly take it.

I say that, and I'm a dumb butt living 1/2 mile from GOM on a coastal community.


Yes, you are.

Wrn half of 95L won't even get to high TS before landfall.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Quoting 883. Hurricane614:


looking much better then earlier. Maybe TD by tomorrow.



No models are agreeing, at all....


Agreeing until about Friday. Then it will depend on the strength of the front and 95L's (maybe Jerry) location at that time. But what do I know? Not much... not much.
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Quoting 881. redwagon:


No, it's Off The Wall, and now it's stuck in my head for at least 24 hrs, thx :)

What does a girl have to do to get a cane into TX...
Oh... how did u get that before I did... lol ... I just realized that while I heard this song multiple times while it was popular, I never paid any attention to the words...

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Quoting 881. redwagon:


No, it's Off The Wall, and now it's stuck in my head for at least 24 hrs, thx :)

What does a girl have to do to get a cane into TX...


Go back in time? lol. It's the only thing I can figure out to do.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 245
Quoting 865. GetReal:
Good shot of 95L exiting Campeche.....now we wait for the steering currents, and SST's
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Quoting 859. WalkingInTheSun:
Hey, Manuel is sure kicking up a fuss that could really translate into RAIN for Texas peeps with that frontal boundary coming into the state -- along with the leftover moisture from Ingrid. Then, there's also 95L moving into the proximity. Will Texas be the next Colorado scenario, going from drought to floods?
Maybe I am wrong, and a Texan can straighten me out, I belive Texans would love to see a Billion dollar loss due to flooding, so that the rest of the state could see 10 billion in profit. The state does need rain, and if 10% is too much for some, the others would gladly take it.

I say that, and I'm a dumb butt living 1/2 mile from GOM on a coastal community.
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Quoting 853. NOLAGOLF:


looking much better then earlier. Maybe TD by tomorrow.



No models are agreeing, at all....
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Quoting 866. SLU:
Things are so bad this year, look at what passes for a tropical storm.


Jose? Is that you?

Don't think Humberto will be a tropical cyclone for much longer unless some organized convection gets going over the center soon.
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Quoting 872. BahaHurican:
Probably "Thriller".... lol


No, it's Off The Wall, and now it's stuck in my head for at least 24 hrs, thx :)

What does a girl have to do to get a cane into TX...
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Snow day in the great white north!

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/calgary/Snow+fa lls+Rockies+southern+Alberta/8929086/story.html

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Quoting 862. crankin:
Hi all. Longtime lurker here.

This mess down in the Yucatan seems to have a lot of energy, as there has been a persistent east wind flow in Tampa, and a squall very much like a tropical rainband just came through. No lightning, just heavy rain and winds.

In the past, when something has actually developed and affected my area, there has been a very broad, far reaching wind flow pattern with it. I think this one's going to pop IMHO.


I noticed the very same thing Crankin (minus any rain), when I left for work today around noon. There was a steady easterly breeze and the sky looked unsettled. It just felt like there is something brewing out there.
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I don't care if Humberto looked 10X worse than Jose..
as long as we got one out there :P
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Quoting 781. FunnelVortex:


You can not blame one anomalous year on GW.


He going to just as sure the season ends..why you think he keep posting that ACE chart pretending to be surprise at the low numbers..
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Quoting 851. yoboi:


Would you please explain how leaving an unattended fire resulting in a massive fire is caused by climate change????? is the increase with co2 causing people to be carless???

When Smokey the bear was saying "only you can prevent wildfires" I don't think he was talking about climate change.....FWIW I attached a link to Smokey the bear...if you complete Smokeys workshop they will send you a sticker....


Link


Isn't CO2 what is used in fire extinguishers to put out fires? If that's true we should have less fires then because CO2 levels are so high right?

Someone quick, put this fire out... FOR GOOD!!
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Quoting 857. beell:
Although this graph is woefully out of date, the 16 year plateau in global temperatures is no doubt due to a resurgence of Somali piracy.



Aaarh, me hearties, tomorrow is "Talk Like a Pirate Day"
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Meanwhile in favorable conditons...

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Quoting 847. FWBRuss:
MJ? Hua few bars, maybe we will get it, else back to millibars thinking...
Probably "Off the Wall".... lol
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18z NAM has 95l doing a North/South dance off the coast of MX and TX for a couple days. This is the tail end (84hrs)
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Quoting 855. Dakster:


Oy Vey! How true.


What? You really do get a sticker? :P
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Quoting 839. VR46L:

LMAO !!!

rock music ,oil and the CHART ....My Goodness!!!
Music and lubricants are good combos,know how to chart your course.

Sorry;:) had to! If those are not worked out, could be a RAINY relationship.
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Manuel has surprised me. He's the little hurricane that could...

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866. SLU
Things are so bad this year, look at what passes for a tropical storm.

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Quoting 815. guygee:
Supercharged SSTs in the Gulf of California could make for rapid intensification in a small system that can "thread the needle" ... the close proximity of high terrain is a limiting factor.


Is that a small region of 90+ degree F SST's near Manuel? No wonder he's doing so well.

I'm actually wondering now: if a storm was able to shoot NW, right up the middle of the Gulf of California, what would its maximum possible intensity be given those SST's? I would think that downsloping winds off the high terrain would prevent major hurricane intensity, but maybe it's more a function of storm size.

I'm very interested to see what this storm does now.
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Meantime in a galaxy far far away...

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Hi all. Longtime lurker here.

This mess down in the Yucatan seems to have a lot of energy, as there has been a persistent east wind flow in Tampa, and a squall very much like a tropical rainband just came through. No lightning, just heavy rain and winds.

In the past, when something has actually developed and affected my area, there has been a very broad, far reaching wind flow pattern with it. I think this one's going to pop IMHO.
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Quoting 848. moonlightcowboy:


That's why we go with reality instead of history and analogues first:



Real windfields are pointing more TX/MX than Tampico or Veracruz, and I am not wishcasting. I'm saving my wishcasting for the low down in the SWCARIB :)
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
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Hey, Manuel is sure kicking up a fuss that could really translate into RAIN for Texas peeps with that frontal boundary coming into the state -- along with the leftover moisture from Ingrid. Then, there's also 95L moving into the proximity. Will Texas be the next Colorado scenario, going from drought to floods?
Member Since: June 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280
The norm


2013


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857. beell
Although this graph is woefully out of date, the 16 year plateau in global temperatures is no doubt due to a resurgence of Somali piracy.

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.
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Quoting 851. yoboi:


Would you please explain how leaving an unattended fire resulting in a massive fire is caused by climate change????? is the increase with co2 causing people to be carless???

When Smokey the bear was saying "only you can prevent wildfires" I don't think he was talking about climate change.....FWIW I attached a link to Smokey the bear...if you complete Smokeys workshop they will send you a sticker....


Link


Oy Vey! How true.
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Quoting 843. wxchaser97:

Pepperidge Farms remembers.
LOL! The other bloggers don't remember quotes, so redress. LOL! This blog, except a few, doesn't remember what you said yesterday.....unless you contradicted someone currently online. Read the weather, sometimes make your personal call, save it.....Then say it "I Saw It First". If bold, call Blobcon on....a very deep concentrated research...that you see a potential storm. Been lurking since this blog was established, and would think many would agree.

I still say...the entire N GOM is in for some rain...and the wind will rise where the track will choose in about 3 days....wait watch. models rarely predicy correct beyond. Some?
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Water Vapor
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Starting to see some higher cloud tops on the SE side of 95l.
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Quoting 840. FWBRuss:
Truely Gulf Breeze, FL? Then Ike, Doug, you, and I know the power of BOC storms. If so, welcome neihbor, although reading through lurking, you have more road time than I.



Yes, Opal comes to mind when someone says "BOC Storm". For those in Pensacola it was the storm that never got here. Very little damage and only a few power outages. For those on the beach, it was the Storm Surge From Hell. Massive amounts of damage. She had built up a huge surge down in the Gulf and fell apart before hitting land. Once those swells are generated, only the land will stop them.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.