Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

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Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 939. BahaHurican:
Todally.... I commented about it earlier when u were talking about the anniversary.
Oh...true:)
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Good evening

I just posted a blog on the Hurricane Chart and Hurricane Manuel... take a look at your numbers, see where you stand to the current activity.

Im not making changes btw...

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947. vis0

CREDIT:NASA water Vapor
(used my x3WV filter, not a NASA product.)

SUBJECT:INVEST95L (Yucatan Peninsula) + Manuel (Baja,CaMex?)
201309-18;0817_;2345UTC 

Click for VID, Click play bar at vidmeup if stuck.



http://www.vidmeup.com/

Yellow NASA LOGO indicates missing/bad frames i removed (more than one
frame, a yellow number pops up next to NAVY LOGO-URL), take into
account not a natural progression jump. Sepia overlay means a previous
frame used to fill in the present frames missing data, its easier on
the eyes as this series had too many (7) blacked out areas.


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Quoting 923. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
Ok, the page to see timelapses is the following one: Below you can do the timelapse that you want of the installed chambers. I recommend you On September 18, 2013 in Mazatlan. and On September 15 in Acapulco.


Link


Thank you. I got the Mazatlan timelapse video to work - pretty cool video. No luck yet with Acapulco; I tried different dates as well. I will try again later. It just doesn't seem to want to cooperate...
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Quoting 934. YUCATANCHICXULUB:



yes, check September 14, 2013 Acapulco


Excelente, muchas gracias
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 939. BahaHurican:
Todally.... I commented about it earlier when u were talking about the anniversary.


I remember you and me used to have the same avatar XD
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And the world would live as one..... Link
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I think this 95L is going to be the most interesting BoC bahia de campeche storm so far.
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Quoting 934. YUCATANCHICXULUB:



sí, marque 14 de septiembre 2013 Acapulco


Check Acapulco September 13, all day.. Can you see as fall the pressure?

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Quoting 935. Tornado6042008X:
I know that you have had this avatar for a long time but, is that a picture of Hurricane Isabel from 2003 in your avatar?
Todally.... I commented about it earlier when u were talking about the anniversary.
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937. IKE
That's pretty much all I need to look at to follow 95L....Sorry for Mexico's flooding.....





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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY...
AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS LOW TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&
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Quoting 921. BahaHurican:
Today's timelapse from Mazatlan is also interesting...

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcamtimelapse.ph p?a=f&c=36
I know that you have had this avatar for a long time but, is that a picture of Hurricane Isabel from 2003 in your avatar?
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Quoting 921. BahaHurican:
Today's timelapse from Mazatlan is also interesting...

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcamtimelapse.ph p?a=f&c=36



yes, check September 14, 2013 Acapulco
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Quoting 927. CybrTeddy:


10 years ago, I was also underneath the same mass of clouds, enduring the same storm. I lived in a forest full of large trees with very weak roots, not a very good situation to be in. We just had no idea that a Category 2 hurricane would be that bad, a mistake millions of Americans have made and will sadly more than likely continue to make. Here's my pictures of the event.




Yeah she was a really bad one. I think it was in Annapolis she had the biggest surge of any past hurricane
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Quoting 926. LAbonbon:


It goes slow (like dial up used to), then locks up...I'll try again a little later. I'm imagining a bunch of WU bloggers bogging down the site...
It takes quite a while to load....
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Can we get a normal season??

2009-El Nino
2010-Pretty good
2011-8 straight TS
2012-Nothing stronger than 115mph Cat. 3
2013-Do I even have to explain :P
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Ups!! the timelapse September 14, on Acapulco is great.!!!

Manuel over Acapulco.


Link
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Quoting 927. CybrTeddy:


10 years ago, I was also underneath the same mass of clouds, enduring the same storm. I lived in a forest full of large oak trees with very weak roots, not a very good situation to be in. We just had no idea that a Category 2 hurricane would be that bad, a mistake millions of Americans have made and will sadly more than likely continue to make.


I severely underestimated Gustav, which was a high end Category 1/low end Category 2 even as far inland as where I am. Wasn't expecting they could be that bad.

I'd definitely do it again, but it did give me some respect for nature's fury.

The "it's only a Category 2" argument doesn't really held up so well for me anymore.
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Quoting 905. Doppler22:
10 Years ago today, my life changed. The monster in the picture below awed me and started my passion for weather. Even though I am sad that she took lives away, she sent mine on a journey.



10 years ago, I was also underneath the same mass of clouds, enduring the same storm. I lived in a forest full of large trees with very weak roots, not a very good situation to be in. We just had no idea that a Category 2 hurricane would be that bad, a mistake millions of Americans have made and will sadly more than likely continue to make. Here's my pictures of the event.


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Quoting 921. BahaHurican:
Today's timelapse from Mazatlan is also interesting...

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcamtimelapse.ph p?a=f&c=36


It goes slow (like dial up used to), then locks up...I'll try again a little later. I'm imagining a bunch of WU bloggers bogging down the site...
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Link
Quoting 918. LAbonbon:


Sorry, but I only get error message with the link :/
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924. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
9:00 AM JST September 19 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (955 hPa) located at 16.9N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 125.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.5N 122.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.7N 119.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44864
Ok, the page to see timelapses is the following one: Below you can do the timelapse that you want of the installed chambers. I recommend you On September 18, 2013 in Mazatlan. and On September 15 in Acapulco.


Link
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Quoting Stoopid1:
Coming together;



Come together
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Quoting 913. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
a timelapse from Acapulco Mexico September 15, 2013


Today's timelapse from Mazatlan is also interesting...

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcamtimelapse.ph p?a=f&c=36
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Quoting 878. HurrMichaelOrl:


I noticed the very same thing Crankin (minus any rain), when I left for work today around noon. There was a steady easterly breeze and the sky looked unsettled. It just felt like there is something brewing out there.
Same thing rolling in on the Panhandle....damn I missed my motorcyle ride with new battery this morning....oops back to thought. light rain gone at 0700, SE winds did not pick up until about 4 pm at 20-35 SE. Damn, I hate when you wind patterns get close to us at 375 miles away....it means keep an eye to the southwest. Yacht raced for years, and that was the ole salt advice.
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This is from mazatlan today morning.
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Quoting 915. YUCATANCHICXULUB:
Link


ok a timelapse link Acapulco September 15, 2013


Sorry, but I only get error message with the link :/
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Quoting 905. Doppler22:
10 Years ago today, my life changed. The monster in the picture below awed me and started my passion for weather. Even though I am sad that she took lives away, she sent mine on a journey.

I see this the exact same way you do bro.

Isabel was one dynamite gal.
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Quoting 858. CaneHunter031472:
The norm


2013




Can the scientifist explain us WHY????
This season is boring !
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Link


ok a timelapse link Acapulco September 15, 2013
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Quoting 903. FWBRuss:
Thanks Redwagon, but this dum butt currently has 5 boats. A near approach says I cancel VAC and secure property....even with a gale. Ok, before some one gets the wrong idea...4 boats are worth under $1000. But the other could be my home, if home is denied from a storm.


Make no mistake, we *are* worried about your boats. Who heartless people wouldn't be?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3187
a timelapse from Acapulco Mexico September 15, 2013


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I expected Manuel to come back, but I certainly didn't expect it to become a Hurricane! Since it is nearly stalled, there seems to be no end in sight. Thoughts and Prayers are with all affected.
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Quoting 901. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


sure, check this.

Link
I must say I am proud of you and DaddyJames for you translations to the Yucatan! I pick up half, but don't know all. But my hat is off to the two of you for working with this country in need of information more than us less drowned worried rats to the north!

I have watched, trying to get 29%. Thanks guys/gals!
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Quoting 909. LAbonbon:


Thank you very much. I like them all, in particular the timelapse videos (el día en un minuto).


me too. the timelaps are wonderful.
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Quoting 901. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


sure, check this.

Link


Thank you very much. I like them all, in particular the timelapse videos (el día en un minuto).
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Quoting 897. FWBRuss:
If my synopsis is correct, we are all dumb in a potential good forecast for about 24-36 hours. I'm baffled...and REALLY want to take a vacation that would impact my life in FL panhandle if i did.




Well, here is the current sit...

Manuel is spitting moisture to TX in an escalated manner, and the Wrn half of 95L is taking a (YUK-induced) break since the de-coupling of that nagging Ern half.

Things will look different in the AM.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3187
Quoting 892. FWBRuss:
You may have gotten me there with the Micheal Jackson thought, last name is Jackson!

No challenge, lurked for years, and just wanted to chat with some of you that hold more knowledge than my 35 years of working at a Government test site 200' from the beach. I see things, you guys explain why!
But I didn't know that when I thought of the song... lol... just thought this has been such a whack season the song fit...

Glad to see u posting more... we can always use a new voice in here adding to the mix.
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Coming together;

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10 Years ago today, my life changed. The monster in the picture below awed me and started my passion for weather. Even though I am sad that she took lives away, she sent mine on a journey.

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AL, 09, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 321N, 435W, 35, 1007, TS
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 889. redwagon:


Yes, you are.

Wrn half of 95L won't even get to high TS before landfall.
Thanks Redwagon, but this dum butt currently has 5 boats. A near approach says I cancel VAC and secure property....even with a gale. Ok, before some one gets the wrong idea...4 boats are worth under $1000. But the other could be my home, if home is denied from a storm.
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Quoting 901. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


sure, check this.

Link


Guaymas Sonora Mexico now

before Manuel hit them.
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Quoting 896. LAbonbon:


México seguro tiene algunas webcams costeras agradables


sure, check this.

Link
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Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2376
EP, 13, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 243N, 1080W, 65, 987, HU
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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