Sunshine Aids Colorado Evacuations; 38 Dead in Mexico From Manuel and Ingrid

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2013

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After nine consecutive days with rain, skies have finally cleared over flood-ravaged Boulder, Colorado. Flooding from the past week's rains have killed at least seven, destroyed over 1,500 homes, damaged 18,000 homes, and caused close to $1 billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Over 70 bridges have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of roads damaged, including major sections of U.S. Highways 34, 36 and 72. Clear skies are forecast for the remainder of the week, which will allow rescue helicopters to safely operate to evacuate the hundreds of people still trapped in mountain towns cut off by the rockslides, collapsed bridges, and destroyed roads. The rains that fell early Monday morning in Boulder officially put the city over its all-time annual precipitation record with three and a half months left in the year. Boulder has been deluged with 30.13" so far this year; the previous record was 29.93", set in 1995.


Figure 1. A raging waterfall destroys a bridge along Highway 34 east of Estes Park, Colorado, on September 15, 2013. (AP Photo/Colorado Heli-Ops, Dennis Pierce)


Figure 2. Damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.


Figure 3. A field of parked cars and trucks sits partially submerged near Greeley, Colorado, Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013, as debris-filled rivers flooded into towns and farms miles from the Rockies (AP Photo/John Wark).

A 1-in-1,000 year flood and rainfall event
The Colorado Emergency Management Agency reported that “Some areas in Larimer County experienced a 100-year flood and other areas experienced a 1,000-year flood. It all depends on where the heaviest rain fell. Areas with more extensive damage experienced the 1,000 year flooding.” The U.S. Geological Survey office in Colorado called the flood of Boulder Creek in the city of Boulder as at least a 1-in-100-year event. In the towns of Lyons and Estes Park, officials separately described the current event in each area as a 1-in-500-year flood. According to Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, 17.16" of rain fell in the past week in Boulder. Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur. For Boulder, a 5.87" rain event in one week has an average recurrence interval of once every 1,000 years. The city received almost triple that amount of rain over the past week--a truly extreme and rare weather event.

As extreme as the 2013 Colorado flood was, there are two flood events in Colorado history that compare. One was the June 1965 flood that hit the Colorado Front Range, causing $4 billion in damage (adjusted for inflation.) Colorado's deadliest flood on record was the Big Thompson Flood of 1976, which killed 145 people between Estes Park and Loveland. More than 12" of rain fell in just three hours, causing a flood rated at between a 500-year and 1,000-year event.


Figure 4. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 12 pm MDT September 13, 2013 over regions near Boulder, Colorado were the type of rains with a 0.2% chance of falling in a particular year, or once every 500 years (purple colors), according to MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Colorado's rains set to cause record flooding in Nebraska
Much of the water from the past week's record rains in Colorado have funneled into the South Platte River, which flows eastwards in Nebraska. A 10 - 11' high flood crest is headed downriver, and is setting all-time flood height records as it heads east. By Wednesday night, the crest will reach western Nebraska at Roscoe, where the flood waters may cover Interstate 80, unless sandbagging efforts to protect the highway are done. Interstate 80 is one of the two most heavily traveled transcontinental highways in the United States.


Figure 5. Observed and predicted flood heights on the South Platte River in Western Nebraska, where an all-time record flood is expected on Wednesday. Records at this gauge go back 30 years. Image credit: NOAA/

Links
Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder summarizes the great flood.

Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a home in Boulder, and discusses his take on the flood.

Colorado’s ‘Biblical’ Flood in Line with Climate Trends by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this year's flood compares to previous Colorado floods in his latest post.

A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Video 1. A slow-motion mudslide pours into Boulder Creek, Colorado on September 14, 2013.

Ingrid and Manuel kill 38 in Mexico; Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on the Pacific coast is being blamed for the deaths of at least 38 people in Mexico, according to AP. The two storms hit Mexico nearly simultaneously on Monday, packing sustained winds of 65 - 70 mph and torrential rains. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is closed, many roads flooded and blocked, and much of the city without water or power.

The waterlogged Gulf Coast of Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is low and is expected to stay low over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30% and 5-day odds of 50% in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is likely to stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche and take a slow west-northwest path towards the same region of coast affected by Hurricane Ingrid. On Saturday, a cold front is expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico, and moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. A non-tropical low pressure system could form along this front and move northeastwards into the Florida Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Lefthand Creek Flood (TigerKOD)
Aftermath
Lefthand Creek Flood
Day 4 (Railheel)
Clear Creek is normally a small clear creek that runs from Golden to Denver. Floods have changed it's look.
Day 4
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath (TigerKOD)
Wash out
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath

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Quoting 340. redwagon:


What if the 95L moving W collides with the remnants of Ingrid? Instant RI as 95L wraps her in?


Maybe Ingrid's the secret ingredient that bumps 95L NE-wards; this IS the season of regenerating tropical cyclones so who the heck knows at this point.
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Quoting 330. MississippiWx:


I didn't say that...the NHC did.


We need some good vort maps. The ones I have are kinda primitive.
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Quoting 334. palmbeachinlet:
The GFS has not been a reliable model this year...You are assuming that the trough will be in this position and strength 5 days from now...enjoy everyone's opinion and quit bickering....



Really? considering it never really developed 92L, caught onto Gabrielle and Humberto, was the only model to see Dorian develop near the Cape-Verde Islands which it did and also saw Dorian degenerating into an open wave near the Lesser Antilles. Our 2 best models are the GFS has a great track record and the Euro does really well on intensity and quite frankly this season has been a dud which is why the Euro hasn't been as bullish as some of the other models in predicting any major developments.
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Quoting 325. louisianaboy444:


I am honestly starting to think this is two different entities. 95L will have favorable conditions as it moves into Mexico. I believe a totally different low, most likely, forms along the front and moves northeastward. You must admit the vorticity being strung out on the GFS does not even look close to a tropical cyclone.


What if the 95L moving W collides with the remnants of Ingrid? Instant RI as 95L wraps her in?
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Quoting 337. Drakoen:
NHC believes conditions are favorable for development over the next 5 days...as it moves... So let's see what happens.


The whole argument has been about once it moves into the Central and Eastern Gulf. The NHC keeps it in the Southern Gulf for now, where models DO show favorable conditions for a while. This is a very important key that cannot be left out of this statement.
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Lets not give StormTrackerScott a hard time. He had a good guess on Andrea and has been wrong many times but everyone has opinions.
My best guess (not a forecast) is that this system goes into the BOC becomes a TS then stays weak and drifts back ENE towards the Yucitan in 7 days via the GFS.... but also I think a low will develop south of LA and move NE towards the west coast of Florida...how much it develops and if it's fully tropical is another question. There could be 2 tropical storms in the GOM over the next 2-7 days... just saying...
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NHC believes conditions are favorable for development over the next 5 days...as it moves... So let's see what happens.
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Quoting 334. palmbeachinlet:
The GFS has not been a reliable model this year...You are assuming that the trough will be in this position and strength 5 days from now...enjoy everyone's opinion and quit bickering....





Yes Sir LOL. Didn't know talking about weather was bickering
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Quoting 310. StormWx:


Just because you found a website that posts models doesnt make you an expert! Copying and pasting into a blog is easy :o) But we certainly appreciate your FL doom posts :o)

Any rain today?
Please be kind with TrollTrackerScott.
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The GFS has not been a reliable model this year...You are assuming that the trough will be in this position and strength 5 days from now...enjoy everyone's opinion and quit bickering....



Quoting 311. louisianaboy444:


If it helps I am a degreed Meteorologist and the GFS image you posted obviously shows an elongated area of low pressure oriented SW to NE which tells me it is frontal. The trough would have to be way further back to the west to be a ventilating pattern.
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More than 500 rescued or found safe in wake of deadly Colorado floods
1 hour ago, By Alexander Smith, NBC News contributor

Death toll now is 8 though. Sorry to read all this.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5932
Quoting 321. scottsvb:
StormTracker Scott is a Met? or just took classes?
He's looking for a job at NHC as Director.
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Quoting scottsvb:
StormTracker Scott is a Met? or just took classes?


I believe he said he learned everything from The Weather Channel.
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Quoting 328. Drakoen:


So you think 5 days from now it will still be in the Southern Gulf of Mexico? ;-)


I didn't say that...the NHC did.
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Quoting 321. scottsvb:
StormTracker Scott is a Met? or just took classes?


Never finished couldn't take all the math. Finance degree instead.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
Quoting 322. MississippiWx:


As the disturbance moves "across the Southern Gulf". We can all pick and choose info that helps our arguments. ;-)


So you think 5 days from now it will still be in the Southern Gulf of Mexico? ;-)
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When entering the blog, please check coats and egos at the door, thanks and enjoy blogging.
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Quoting 311. louisianaboy444:


If it helps I am a degreed Meteorologist and the GFS image you posted obviously shows an elongated area of low pressure oriented SW to NE which tells me it is frontal. The trough would have to be way further back to the west to be a ventilating pattern.


...Thank you.
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Quoting 315. Drakoen:
Take it from the horse's mouth...


200 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
LOW IN THIS AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS LOW HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.


I am honestly starting to think this is two different entities. 95L will have favorable conditions as it moves into Mexico. I believe a totally different low, most likely, forms along the front and moves northeastward. You must admit the vorticity being strung out on the GFS does not even look close to a tropical cyclone.
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Quoting 316. centex:
GFS and Euro out to lunch on BOC storm again.. NHC upping chances just like it did for Ingrid and ignoring those models for genesis.
GFS and ECMWF were both calling for the possibility that Ingrid would make a shot at hurricane status days before genesis. CMC actually kept it weaker than those two models. They did the best with track and intensity.
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Its gettin saucy up in here :o)

95L, the mystery of where it will go continues.
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Quoting 315. Drakoen:
Take it from the horse's mouth...


200 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
LOW IN THIS AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS LOW HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.


As the disturbance moves "across the Southern Gulf". We can all pick and choose info that helps our arguments. ;-)
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StormTracker Scott is a Met? or just took classes?
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Seeing as we're uncertain about 95L, here's what I can tell.

  • The assertion that shear will be unfavorable is incorrect. Shear will be favorable in front of the trough as the GFS is showing a favorable upper-level environment with a hint of an anti-cyclonic circulation aloft taking place in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • 95L, or whatever comes out of 95L that's shot NE, will have a front to deal with. We saw with this seasons earlier 92L that when these fronts come down they can string out the energy even if the upper level environment is generally favorable. This causes a system to be unable to generate its own convergence and divergence and causes it to be unable to close off its LLC. 

Good chance that 95L will become 11L, below average confidence in intensity and track.
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Hey..get off this guy's back! You guys sound so ridicuous...His thoughts on less shear in this particular case are correct...



Quoting 302. CybrTeddy:


Really? A rather tactless comment don't you think? I don't rub salt into your wounds when you mess up on a forecast, I don't do it to anyone actually. I could honestly count off to you the amount of times I've been drastically wrong with a forecast and I'm totally fine with admitting it. If there ever is a time when I'm not at least a little wrong please alert it to my attention so I can print it out and hang it up on my refrigerator.
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Quoting 303. StormTrackerScott:


You, Teddy, and many others on this blog. The comparison is that shear in the Gulf was much greater when Andrea formed than what will be the case when 95L gets in the Gulf.


I can't speak for the rest, but again, you are wrong. I never said it wouldn't become a TS.
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Quoting 307. MississippiWx:


Scott, where is the center of that low on the map you just posted? Directly in the middle of 40kts+ of shear. What do met classes have to do with reading models? You sound like someone else. If you have taken met classes, you certainly didn't get your money's worth as you have been wrong way more times than you've been right this year. Please, don't try to insult my intelligence by flaunting around met degrees when you yourself have been wrong many times and are wrong currently.


Sorry. Geesh I need a Fresca it appears Pat.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
GFS and Euro out to lunch on BOC storm again.. NHC upping chances just like it did for Ingrid and ignoring those models for genesis.
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Take it from the horse's mouth...


200 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
LOW IN THIS AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS LOW HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Scott, where is the center of that low on the map you just posted? Directly in the middle of 40kts+ of shear. What do met classes have to do with reading models? You sound like someone else. If you have taken met classes, you certainly didn't get your money's worth as you have been wrong way more times than you've been right this year. Please, don't try to insult my intelligence by flaunting around met degrees when you yourself have been wrong many times and are wrong currently.


Lets not forget, Scott is an elementary school Met teacher :o) I appreciate your forecasts. Anyone can copy a model and post it here, then think they are an expert ya know.
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml#contents

60 %... Far north.
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Quoting 308. CybrTeddy:


No offense taken, but you really shouldn't go out of your way to single me out, or ANYONE out about their forecasts.


Sorry man. I am wrong all the time as keeper said weather merely a good guess.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
Quoting 298. StormTrackerScott:


Since when has 0 shear turned into 25knts? Funny how you pick the area with higher shear when you obivously see on that map that right where the low in in the BOC and extending into the Central Gulf an area of no shear under an anticyclone. Complex pattern here that could one for ventilating a system. Have you taken any met classes or even went to met school. Just asking.





If it helps I am a degreed Meteorologist and the GFS image you posted obviously shows an elongated area of low pressure oriented SW to NE which tells me it is frontal. The trough would have to be way further back to the west to be a ventilating pattern.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Since when has 0 shear turned into 25knts? Funny how you pick the area with higher shear when you obivously see on that map that right where the low in in the BOC and extending into the Central Gulf an area of no shear under an anticyclone. Complex pattern here that could one for ventilating a system. Have you taken any met classes or even went to met school. Just asking.





Just because you found a website that posts models doesnt make you an expert! Copying and pasting into a blog is easy :o) But we certainly appreciate your FL doom posts :o)

Any rain today?
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Quoting 302. CybrTeddy:


Really? A rather tactless comment don't you think? I don't rub salt into your wounds when you mess up on a forecast, I don't do it to anyone actually. I could honestly count off to you the amount of times I've been drastically wrong with a forecast and I'm totally fine with admitting it. If there ever is a time when I'm not at least a little wrong please alert it to my attention so I can print it out and hang it up on my refrigerator.


All I am doing is trying to make a comparison on how Andrea and 95L will have different enviromental conditions.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
Quoting 305. StormTrackerScott:


Hey I am wrong a lot as well. So don't take offense.


No offense taken, but you really shouldn't go out of your way to single me out, or ANYONE out about their forecasts.
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Quoting 298. StormTrackerScott:


Since when has 0 shear turned into 25knts? Funny how you pick the area with higher shear when you obivously see on that map that right where the low in in the BOC and extending into the Central Gulf an area of no shear under an anticyclone. Complex pattern here that could one for ventilating a system. Have you taken any met classes or even went to met school. Just asking.





Scott, where is the center of that low on the map you just posted? Directly in the middle of 40kts+ of shear. What do met classes have to do with reading models? You sound like someone else. If you have taken met classes, you certainly didn't get your money's worth as you have been wrong way more times than you've been right this year. Please, don't try to insult my intelligence by flaunting around met degrees when you yourself have been wrong many times and are wrong currently.
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Quoting 252. StormTrackerScott:

to Atlantic Graphical TWO

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
LOW IN THIS AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS LOW HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY
IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.
Bla,bla,bla
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Quoting 302. CybrTeddy:


Really? A rather tactless comment don't you think? I don't rub salt into your wounds when you mess up on a forecast, I don't do it to anyone actually. I could honestly count off to you the amount of times I've been drastically wrong with a forecast and I'm totally fine with admitting it. If there ever is a time when I'm not at least a little wrong please alert it to my attention so I can print it out and hang it up on my refrigerator.


Hey I am wrong a lot as well. So don't take offense.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
Couple quick statements to make here on 95L

1. This is to early to say what will happen due to many factors. Don't go by what a model shows after 3 days on this system until or if this develops.

2. If this system does develop in the next 2-3 days and moves slower WNW than what the models are showing, it will then move ENE or NE towards the EGOM and could be a strong TS or even Hurricane. The shear will be greater along the N GOM north of 29N..also will be moving in tandom with the mid-upper level flow thus reducing any shear factor. Warm ssts and plenty of moisture will favor a NavGem solution.

3. If this system doesn't develop as much and most of the energy gets caught up with the front coming down (via GFS) then this will be more of a rain event and possibly a weak TS. Still though the shear factor will be limited unless it develops near the panhandle instead of around 27-28N.

4. This could just go straight into MX 200 miles south of TX ..... don't forget that.

As of now, it's a wait and see system over the next 2 days. Keep track of the GFS and Euro mostly on development within 3-5days of position compromise and evolution.
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Quoting 295. MississippiWx:


Lol. Looks like at least 25kts of shear on that map. You are totally discounting how troughs like these completely string out tropical systems in the Gulf. That is what the GFS is showing. The NAVGEM is showing a more concentrated storm because it keeps the upper level trough relatively weak. Taking the NAVGEM's word over the GFS when it comes to mid to upper level patterns is plain wishful thinking.

And what does Andrea have to do with this storm? Who said Andrea wouldn't become a TS? I was calling for Andrea in late May. Check out my blog.


You, Teddy, and many others on this blog. The comparison is that shear in the Gulf was much greater when Andrea formed than what will be the case when 95L gets in the Gulf.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
Quoting 250. StormTrackerScott:


Yup, just as you said with Andrea and Andrea nearly pulled hurricane strength about 75 miles off Tampa.


Really? A rather tactless comment don't you think? I don't rub salt into your wounds when you mess up on a forecast, I don't do it to anyone actually. I could honestly count off to you the amount of times I've been drastically wrong with a forecast and I'm totally fine with admitting it. If there ever is a time when I'm not at least a little wrong please alert it to my attention so I can print it out and hang it up on my refrigerator.
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Very bad news from Mexico, and probably there are more to come, unfortunately.

Chaos as floods submerge Mexico's Acapulco, death toll rises
By Luis Enrique Martinez and Alberto Fajardo
ACAPULCO, Mexico | Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:21pm EDT

(Reuters) - Stranded tourists salvaged belongings from submerged cars in the Mexican beach resort of Acapulco which had become a floodplain on Tuesday after some of the worst storm damage in decades killed more than 50 people across the country.

Television footage showed Acapulco's international airport terminal waist deep in water and workers wading out to escape floods which have prevented some 40,000 visitors leaving and blocked one of the main access routes to the city with mud.

A three day downpour cut off several roads in Acapulco, wrecking cars and restricting the delivery of supplies to the Pacific port city of 750,000 people where the tourist trade has suffered in recent years from a surge in drug gang violence.

"They've started to ration food here," said Pedro de la Torre, a 53-year-old graphic designer from Mexico City stranded in a large international hotel in Acapulco. "People are starting to get annoyed. I lost two cars, total write-offs," he added.

Outside the hotel, guests waded to their waterlogged vehicles in the hope of recovering whatever they could.

Since the weekend, the rains have killed more than 50 people in the states of Veracruz, Guerrero, Puebla, Hidalgo, Michoacan and Oaxaca, according to regional emergency services.

Guerrero has been the hardest hit, with some streets in the state capital Chilpancingo becoming rivers of mud and the local mayor Mario Moreno saying the city had "collapsed".

President Enrique Pena Nieto said via Twitter he had ordered a "house by house" census in Guerrero and told the federal transport ministry to establish an air bridge to Mexico City. ...


Whole article see link above.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5932
Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:


Just like Andrea wouldn't make it to a TS. Shear was much greater then as well. 95L will have much lower shear once in the Central Gulf. Notice the Central Gulf void of shear.



Since Warm Air Advection builds the upper-level ridge and cold air advection deepens the upper-level trough, the surface cold front is usually located right along the inflection point of the trough/ridge configuration. With that being said, a cold front will be draped from the big bend of Florida into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Any low that forms there would most likely not be fully tropical and more frontal in nature.
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Quoting 276. Relix:
So, Cape Verde is closed for the rest of the season heh?


not closed but close to being that way



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Quoting 295. MississippiWx:


Lol. Looks like at least 25kts of shear on that map. You are totally discounting how troughs like these completely string out tropical system in the Gulf. That is what the GFS is showing. The NAVGEM is showing a more concentrated storm because it keeps the upper level trough relatively weak. Taking the NAVGEM's word over the GFS when it comes to mid to upper level patterns is plain wishful thinking.


Since when has 0 shear turned into 25knts? Funny how you pick the area with higher shear when you obivously see on that map that right where the low in in the BOC and extending into the Central Gulf an area of no shear under an anticyclone. Complex pattern here that could one for ventilating a system. Have you taken any met classes or even went to met school. Just asking.



Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 2937
297. VR46L
95L


RMTC - Sector 5 - Ch 4 - Thermal Infrared

Loop Embedded

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
296. VR46L
.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:


Just like Andrea wouldn't make it to a TS. Shear was much greater then as well. 95L will have much lower shear once in the Central Gulf. Notice the Central Gulf void of shear.



Lol. Looks like at least 25kts of shear on that map. You are totally discounting how troughs like these completely string out tropical systems in the Gulf. That is what the GFS is showing. The NAVGEM is showing a more concentrated storm because it keeps the upper level trough relatively weak. Taking the NAVGEM's word over the GFS when it comes to mid to upper level patterns is plain wishful thinking.

And what does Andrea have to do with this storm? Who said Andrea wouldn't become a TS? I was calling for Andrea in late May. Check out my blog.
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293. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


MDR activity but is the GEM/CMC. I would like to see GFS and Euro do the same.

yeah
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.