Tropical Storms Ingrid and Manuel Hit Mexico, Killing 21

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2013

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Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the Mexican coast about 200 miles south of the Texas border with top sustained winds of 65 mph at approximately 8 am EDT Monday morning. Ingrid weakened below hurricane strength just before landfall, and it appears that strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have been responsible for keeping Ingrid weaker than expected for the past 24 hours. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, but the storm is bringing torrential rains to portions of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border. Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast are already being blamed for the deaths of 21 people, according to AP. However, Ingrid is also bringing beneficial rains to areas of northern Mexico and South Texas that are in extreme drought.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Brownsville, Texas radar of Tropical Storm Ingrid at landfall, near 8 am EDT September 16, 2013.

Ingrid was the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and Ingrid's peak intensity of 85 mph on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28. Ingrid is the third named storm to hit Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast so far in 2013, which is a very high level of tropical activity for the region. Only 1933 (seven storms), 1936 (six storms), and 2005 (five storms) had more tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall on Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast. Two other years have also had three such landfalls, 1944 and 1931.




Figure 2. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013 (top) and 8 am EDT September 15, 2013 (bottom). Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico both days. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for Tropical Storm Ingrid from the 06Z (2 am EDT) September 16, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid brought a storm surge of one foot on Sunday afternoon and Monday morning to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning is in effect. Seas were eight feet high Tuesday morning at buoy 42020, located 58 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, and large waves are causing dangerous surf all along the South Texas coast. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas ay present, but 2 - 5" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3 - 4" of rain, and coastal and mountain areas of Mexico 100 - 200 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Humberto are regenerating back into a tropical storm, but newly re-formed Humberto will stay far out to sea and will not be a threat to any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean will move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by late this week. NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook. Moisture from the disturbance is likely to stream northeastwards across the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, and the Western Bahamas during the period 7 - 14 days from now, bringing heavy rainfall.

The tropical Atlantic will be dominated by dry air this week, and the models are not showing any development from new African tropical waves during the coming week. With the African monsoon now beginning to wane, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to be in a phase that will bring sinking air to the tropical Atlantic during the remainder of September, the Cape Verde hurricane season is likely over; I give only a 30% chance that we will see a tropical storm develop between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa during the remainder of hurricane season. However, we will likely get several more tropical storms forming in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or waters near the Bahamas during the remainder of the season.

Jeff Masters

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1087. scott39
Quoting 1051. Skyepony:
Not surprised to see 95L. Hate to say it but not as sure it will make it to TX/MX as I was a few days ago.. It might get shoved back out into the gulf & go north. It would be enhanced by the front in that case & stronger. ex98L is starting to put on a show in the Bahamas. Heads up Bermuda, this may come your way. Leaning toward CMC doom solution.. NE gulf coast & Bermuda in 5-6 days.. More confident about Bermuda than the NE gulf coast.

Is the 95L solution more complex? Is that why you are more confident about about Bermuda? TIA
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Quoting 1079. CaneHunter031472:


You go girl. You are AWESOME and it is rare to see a young lady taking on this GW crew instead of joining them. There's hope for this country for what I see. Kudos to you. By the way, Love your avatar picture.
GW is not conjecture it is fact. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Ignore at your own peril and prepare to gobble crow, because as time continues the facts will become clear even to the people who still think the earth is flat.
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Quoting 1083. 69Viking:


That's your opinion. Scientists are now debating the rate of warming over the past 15 years. Multiple news reports have stated the earth has not warmed nearly as much as the U.N.'s IPCC panel predited it would.


He's a denier.
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Quoting 1074. SouthernIllinois:

You see, anyone that contradicts a viewpoint of another is called a troll or denier. Do you see what is wrong with that. Right off the bat, it illustrates you already have your mind made up and are not open to hearing anything that you don't want to hear. It doesn't work that way.

1995 to 2013 sure doesn't equate with climate model projections of fewer storms.


Well considering you are misrepresenting the science, I only think it's fair. You don't like what the accepted science says, that's your right, but don't start putting words into scientists mouths and claiming it as accurate. Do you see the problem here?
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Quoting 1066. Neapolitan:
If it really "appears" that way to you, you might want to consider changing your news sources, for the ones you're probably using have terribly misled you.


That's your opinion. Scientists are now debating the rate of warming over the past 15 years. Multiple news reports have stated the earth has not warmed nearly as much as the U.N.'s IPCC panel predited it would.
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S.E. and especially Fl. look for lots of precipitation next week.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11210
Quoting 1078. SouthernIllinois:

Logging off now. Got a BUSY day today!! Just wanted to correct a couple incorrect statements made on here this morning. Of course I have the ability to do that without name calling. That's just the "nut" in me I guess. ;)


Don't leave us! we can't handle all the GW without youuuuu.... have a good one Natalie
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1080. ncstorm
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Quoting 1074. SouthernIllinois:

You see, anyone that contradicts a viewpoint of another is called a troll or denier. Do you see what is wrong with that. Right off the bat, it illustrates you already have your mind made up and are not open to hearing anything that you don't want to hear. It doesn't work that way.

1995 to 2013 sure doesn't equate with climate model projections of fewer storms.


You go girl. You are AWESOME and it is rare to see a young lady taking on this GW crew instead of joining them. There's hope for this country for what I see. Kudos to you. By the way, Love your avatar picture.
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I knew that can of worms would have a purpose! Have a nice day everyone! :)
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What's all these "nuts" er uh, peanuts doing this morning....
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Quoting 1062. JohnLonergan:


Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?


So let me see if I get you straight. First I only see you in this blog when the GW crew gets alerted that someone is trashing your religion. You come here and make the argument that anyone talking against GW is a troll and deserves a -10. Well sport, I think you and your crew deserves a -100 actually you deserve to be ignored. I'm sick of people like you really. Anyway, back to the weather, I will not bother with you.
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Quoting 1071. SouthernIllinois:

It has nothing to do with News sources. Instead, look back at the climatological hurricane archives to observe what I am referring to. You might want to start here. Link


What link are you claiming between climate and hurricanes? Considering the science is divided on the topic of climate change and hurricanes and there are two competing theories.
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Quoting 1062. JohnLonergan:


Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?
yeah, but don't put him down though...he's not really good at math.
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Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Rinse, repeat with 95L? Pattern doesn't look much different than it has. Low level steering is weak beneath the Tamaulipas area where Ingrid made landfall. A bit stronger steering north of that landfall currently. Depending on where 95L gets across the Yucatan lends notion to track: further south, likely south of Tampico; further north off the peninsula, possibly southeastern TX.



The ridge is still in place despite the upper level trough, and not likely to get much further north until that changes. Keep your fingers crossed, TX! ;)





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Quoting 1063. SouthernIllinois:

Going back almost 20 years to 1995, it sure doesn't appear these climate projections aren't that on par.


Evidence? Looks like the deniers are the ones on the wrong end of predictions.

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1068. centex
95L may actually steal the rain expected later this week in Central Texas, bummer.

From NWS Austin/San Antonio

THE NAM SOLUTIONS PRESENT A MINOR CONCERN IN DEVELOPING THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE INTO A CYCLONE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A REDUCED RAINFALL POTENTIAL DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD.
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Quoting 1063. SouthernIllinois:

Going back almost 20 years to 1995, it sure doesn't appear these climate projections aren't that on par.
If it really "appears" that way to you, you might want to consider changing your news sources, for the ones you're probably using have terribly misled you.
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Today's Discussion out of Melbourne, FL regarding the possible BOC low.

"Sat-tues...the 00z GFS has changed its tune dramatically in the
evolution of the broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
over the weekend into early next week. It now depicts a considerably
stronger upper level trough/low swinging through the Mississippi and
Tennessee valleys...along with strong baroclinic cyclogenesis along
the northern Gulf and East Coast. This swings through a decent cold
front through most of the state leaving behind a very unorganized
area of lower pressure along the front in the Bay of Campeche.

The 00z European model (ecmwf) remains close to the previous model solutions with a
weaker trough and broader double barreled (baroclinic north/tropical
south) area of low pressure over the Gulf on sun which then lifts
out in the general vicinity of Florida and the Bahamas into middle next
week.

Both scenarios look complex...and the uncertainties in intensity and
structure of any low that would potentially impact the area are
quite large. But regardless of how this feature develops...it
appears we are headed toward wetter period for at least the first
half of next week. "
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Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.





Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?
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1061. ncstorm
Good Morning Folks.

I see we still got agreement on the Gulf storm developing from the models..

also wanted to note that the Navgem has done a great job with seeing the potential of the gulf systems..its been running a cape verde system in its past runs so I wouldnt discount the cape verde system just yet..wouldnt that be something..just when most think the season is dead..

last frame 180 hours

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Time to bring something up from the Caribbean. Poor Mexico needs a break.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11210
1059. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
21:00 PM JST September 17 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.1N 110.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Good Morning. NHC has gone up to 50% in the longer term so prudent to keep an eye on the Yucatan low as we edge towards the weekend.

That big ULL cell near the Yucatan Channel is starting to dissipate/weaken (below) so things should be pretty clear in the Northern BOC when the low emerges into the Gulf.

Link

It will pretty much boil down to needing favorable sheer levels in that region over the weekend to help the system organize; after that, we need to keep an eye on dry air intrusion issues (if the Central Gulf remains clear and dry) which could keep a TD or storm in-check from significant intensification.

It would probably be a fast moving system once it gets going but I don't have a clue whether it would have time for a fully tropical system or hybrid while on the move; it could just end up being a short lived rain-wind event and hopefully nothing more than that.

It's a watch and wait.
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Wow, this is almost closed by the look of it on radar.



LINK

I'm guessing 18 degrees North and 87 degrees West? Or somewhere to the northeast of that point anyway.
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Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.



Since you are keeping my score, I got 3 more points! See 1038.
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1054. MahFL
Still intense convection near the center of Ingrid.

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Quoting 1051. Skyepony:
Not surprised to see 95L. Hate to say it but not as sure it will make it to TX as I was a few days ago.. It might get shoved back out into the gulf & go north. It would be enhanced by the front in that case & stronger. ex98L is starting to put on a show in the Bahamas. Heads up Bermuda, this may come your way. Leaning toward CMC doom solution.. NE gulf coast & Bermuda in 5-6 days.. More confident about Bermuda than the NE gulf coast.



I know Levi mentioned about how the central Atlantic is dead. Everywhere from Hispaniola east to the Cape Verdes, but it seems like when anything gets outside those areas they do not waste any time organizing.

This system as great upper level outflow, now anyone got anything showing what kind of circulation we got under there if any?

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1052. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM USAGI (T1319)
21:00 PM JST September 17 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Usagi (994 hPa) located at 17.5N 130.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.7N 128.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.0N 124.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.9N 121.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
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1051. Skyepony (Mod)
Not surprised to see 95L. Hate to say it but not as sure it will make it to TX/MX as I was a few days ago.. It might get shoved back out into the gulf & go north. It would be enhanced by the front in that case & stronger. ex98L is starting to put on a show in the Bahamas. Heads up Bermuda, this may come your way. Leaning toward CMC doom solution.. NE gulf coast & Bermuda in 5-6 days.. More confident about Bermuda than the NE gulf coast.

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
536 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-181000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
536 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...TROPICAL IMPACT...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA

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Quoting 1005. biff4ugo:
Someone brough Cafe Du Mond coffee today! Wish I had some low fat shrimp to go with it.

Nea, my 8 ball says to agree with you. It also said Humberto was headed to Spain.

Still hitting the 90's but it should cool down after tomorrow.
But we all know that's not right, because according to the all knowing, and judge Xyrus2000, climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world! How can it cool down after tomorrow!?
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WEATHER ALERT DAY for SE FL from Storm Team 5
Threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms through this evening

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Quoting 1043. FOREX:


So is current pressure estimated 1006 or 1008?
1006,environmental 1008.
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Quoting 1037. CaneHunter031472:
On a curious note this past September 8

An incredible image reveals a rare moment of calm on Earth with clear skies above three oceans.

The image, taken on September 8, shows no hurricanes, cyclones, or tropical storms in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Ocean basin.


A total of 14 polar satellite images, also known as swaths, were stitched together to create the stunning view.



Link
Cool. (no pun intended)
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1044. VR46L
RMTC - Sector 5 - Ch 4 - Thermal Infrared

Loop Embedded

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1043. FOREX
Quoting 1041. HurricaneAndre:

AL, 95, 2013091712, 01, CARQ, 0, 180N, 880W, 25, 1006, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 3, INVEST, M ,


So is current pressure estimated 1006 or 1008?
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Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.





I thought the argument was that GW would bring stronger hurricanes and more frequent. Sorry you cannot have it both ways decide wich one will it be. This is why ppl arguing GW has issues with credibility. As a matter of fact, Al Gore uses a hurricane in his inconveniece truth movie poster. IMO.
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AL, 95, 2013091712, 01, CARQ, 0, 180N, 880W, 25, 1006, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 3, INVEST, M ,
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* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952013 09/17/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 63 68 73 75 76 79
V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 37 45 52 58 40 31 28 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 26 35 43 54 66 45 32 28 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 7 9 4 6 3 9 4 11 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 339 10 12 351 20 170 360 84 30 352 353 357 17
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 150 152 152 151 149 147 146 147 149 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 138 139 141 141 139 136 132 129 130 132 133
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 8 12 9 13 10 13 9
700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 79 79 78 76 76 77 77 80 77 74
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 5
850 MB ENV VOR 75 83 86 84 73 80 74 75 60 55 72 54 51
200 MB DIV 39 28 29 30 32 33 41 33 35 45 46 24 26
700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -2 2 -1 4 -3 0 -1 -2 0
LAND (KM) 0 -52 -130 -74 -4 111 191 119 12 -65 -146 -241 -349
LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.7 89.4 90.1 90.8 92.4 94.0 95.7 97.2 98.4 99.2 100.1 101.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 33 68 0 27 34 15 13 29 18 0 0 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 38. 43. 48. 50. 51. 54.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/17/2013 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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1039. VR46L
Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.





I know a different handle marked a comment I made similarly over in Dr Rood's blog some months back...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7097
Quoting 1034. hurricanes2018:
I got up this morning its cold outside!! only 41 F at 7am this morning
So much for global warming! Some people are just "frozen" in their tracks right now.
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On a curious note this past September 8

An incredible image reveals a rare moment of calm on Earth with clear skies above three oceans.

The image, taken on September 8, shows no hurricanes, cyclones, or tropical storms in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Ocean basin.


A total of 14 polar satellite images, also known as swaths, were stitched together to create the stunning view.



Link
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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