Tropical Storms Ingrid and Manuel Hit Mexico, Killing 21

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2013

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Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the Mexican coast about 200 miles south of the Texas border with top sustained winds of 65 mph at approximately 8 am EDT Monday morning. Ingrid weakened below hurricane strength just before landfall, and it appears that strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have been responsible for keeping Ingrid weaker than expected for the past 24 hours. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, but the storm is bringing torrential rains to portions of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border. Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast are already being blamed for the deaths of 21 people, according to AP. However, Ingrid is also bringing beneficial rains to areas of northern Mexico and South Texas that are in extreme drought.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Brownsville, Texas radar of Tropical Storm Ingrid at landfall, near 8 am EDT September 16, 2013.

Ingrid was the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and Ingrid's peak intensity of 85 mph on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28. Ingrid is the third named storm to hit Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast so far in 2013, which is a very high level of tropical activity for the region. Only 1933 (seven storms), 1936 (six storms), and 2005 (five storms) had more tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall on Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast. Two other years have also had three such landfalls, 1944 and 1931.




Figure 2. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013 (top) and 8 am EDT September 15, 2013 (bottom). Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico both days. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for Tropical Storm Ingrid from the 06Z (2 am EDT) September 16, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid brought a storm surge of one foot on Sunday afternoon and Monday morning to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning is in effect. Seas were eight feet high Tuesday morning at buoy 42020, located 58 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, and large waves are causing dangerous surf all along the South Texas coast. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas ay present, but 2 - 5" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3 - 4" of rain, and coastal and mountain areas of Mexico 100 - 200 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Humberto are regenerating back into a tropical storm, but newly re-formed Humberto will stay far out to sea and will not be a threat to any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean will move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by late this week. NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook. Moisture from the disturbance is likely to stream northeastwards across the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, and the Western Bahamas during the period 7 - 14 days from now, bringing heavy rainfall.

The tropical Atlantic will be dominated by dry air this week, and the models are not showing any development from new African tropical waves during the coming week. With the African monsoon now beginning to wane, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to be in a phase that will bring sinking air to the tropical Atlantic during the remainder of September, the Cape Verde hurricane season is likely over; I give only a 30% chance that we will see a tropical storm develop between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa during the remainder of hurricane season. However, we will likely get several more tropical storms forming in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or waters near the Bahamas during the remainder of the season.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


BAMS and BAMD shoved Ingrid into Mexico within 24-36 hours of formation.

Indeed, their timing, like the timing of all the models for Ingrid, was off. My point was they never deviated from a Mexico landfall, and they've done the same for the preceding storms as well. They work well for early track direction, but I don't depend on them once a storm gets wound up.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
Quoting CaribBoy:


24hrs rainfall (millimeters)

Hey, ya big whiner, my total rainfall for the past 5 days is 0.00 (inches or millimeters). :-) I'm trying to keep my banana trees alive bit it's taking about 15 gallons a day each with these highs like the 102 we had today. I have to go take the dog for a walk and it's still 80. So far, September is making up for the rain we got in August and the normal temperatures. I'm hoping just one more month....
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
Quoting 610. sar2401:

The BAMS and BAMD have both done well with BOC storms this year, taking every single one of them into Mexico while other models were taking them all over the place. I wouldn't discount either model yet.


BAMS and BAMD shoved Ingrid into Mexico within 24-36 hours of formation.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24682
Quoting 630. KoritheMan:


Yeah, but there is nothing going toward the Gulf Coast except later in the run, which still appears to be associated with a secondary vortmax forecast to move northward and amplify the preexisting cyclonic flow in the area.


Makes sense, I do think that is what ends up happening

the energy splits, I think in the end the stronger system is the one that heads northward, but we will see
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting 619. sar2401:

First, it's an invest, so I don't buy any model at this point. As I wrote, if it gets into the BOC still being an invest, it might get to be a hurricane, but it's not getting out of the BOC. I have no clue what happens if the models are right except that, if it gets stuck in the BOC as a weak system, it's not going to leave the BOC. If the last five storms were not enough to convince you the, we'll see what happens once 95L does develop, assuming that occurs.


Death Ridge, Dry air and shear to overcome...not what I'd call favorable conditions, but it is a yellow circle and it is the time once again to watch this area for development, so I will ....
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1086
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952013 09/17/13 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 44 51 58 62 67 71 74 76
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 30 35 42 49 54 40 31 28 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 34 40 50 62 47 33 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 12 8 12 1 5 3 4 1 5 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 318 324 344 5 5 8 333 15 148 32 298 359 323
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 150 152 152 151 149 147 147 148 149 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 135 137 139 140 138 137 134 132 130 131 130
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 11 7 13 9 13 9 13
700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 78 78 77 77 77 80 82 82 83 77
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 70 76 76 80 84 83 95 88 81 73 72 76 64
200 MB DIV 32 41 17 26 18 30 30 53 56 60 54 49 37
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 2 -2 3 -3 3 -2 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) -30 -90 -130 -63 2 111 178 147 31 -60 -161 -238 -331
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.2 22.1
LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.0 89.5 90.1 90.7 92.1 93.6 95.2 96.8 98.2 99.4 100.2 101.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 4
HEAT CONTENT 67 0 19 26 29 18 14 26 27 56 0 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 26. 33. 37. 42. 46. 49. 51.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/17/2013 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
I mentioned in my blog yesterday that I didn't think 95L would go west. At the time, I didn't see much evidence of that in the models.

But at this point, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see yet another Mexico strike. The Texas ridge seems too strong to allow anything below 25N to make it to the US from this area.

Still a host of possibilities with this one, and the northern track is still viable, but... who knows. I'm eyeing Mexico more than I was.

I'm also impressed with the dry, stable air currently invading the Gulf. It appears that most of this dry air will make it to the BOC and Cuba. At least Ingrid had some moist, unstable air going for it, which why it made it to hurricane status. No matter which direction 95L goes, it's going to have a tough row to hoe.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
Quoting 629. Hurricanes101:


well I did say not much lol



Yeah, but there is nothing going toward the Gulf Coast except later in the run, which still appears to be associated with a secondary vortmax forecast to move northward and amplify the preexisting cyclonic flow in the area.

I'm not saying nothing will go toward the US Gulf Coast, but 95L may not be the one. It still could be, but it's originating awfully far south in latitude. A direct northern shot into the northern to central Gulf Coast would be more likely if it was hanging around the northern tip of the Yucatan. But it's not.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21680
Quoting 627. KoritheMan:


18z GFS, 96 hours:



well I did say not much lol

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874


24hrs rainfall (millimeters)
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Quoting 625. Hurricanes101:


so far the models do not show much going into Mexico, but several show a low forming and heading towards the Gulf Coast


18z GFS, 96 hours:



I spy with my little eye, an elongated low-level vortex approaching Tampico.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21680
Quoting 624. IKE:




IKE doing teh internet memes now?

:D
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21680
Quoting 623. KoritheMan:


I actually agree with that assessment. The split vorticity I mentioned seems to be verifying.


so far the models do not show much going into Mexico, but several show a low forming and heading towards the Gulf Coast
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
624. IKE

Quoting CaribBoy:


Please, no. Not again. What a year!

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Quoting 621. GrandCaymanMed:
95L should take an Ingrid track, but the much more intense area of storms over the SW Caribbean should linger as the models show for a week, develop into something and head to FL following a typical late season track. This is the time of year the big blockbuster storms develop in the Caribbean so I will be watching the Nicaragua Honduras area very closely. I think it will bring heavy rains to the NW Caribbean including the Cayman Islands.


I actually agree with that assessment. The split vorticity I mentioned seems to be verifying.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21680
Quoting 598. RGVtropicalWx13:
First model runs on 95L..


Please, no. Not again. What a year!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L should take an Ingrid track, but the much more intense area of storms over the SW Caribbean should linger as the models show for a week, develop into something and head to FL following a typical late season track. This is the time of year the big blockbuster storms develop in the Caribbean so I will be watching the Nicaragua Honduras area very closely. I think it will bring heavy rains to the NW Caribbean including the Cayman Islands.

In other words, the area southwest of 95L is something people in FL and Cuba should watch very closely.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I mentioned in my blog yesterday that I didn't think 95L would go west. At the time, I didn't see much evidence of that in the models.

But at this point, it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see yet another Mexico strike. The Texas ridge seems too strong to allow anything below 25N to make it to the US from this area.

Still a host of possibilities with this one, and the northern track is still viable, but... who knows. I'm eyeing Mexico more than I was.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21680
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not sure I agree with this one

several of the models develop the low in the western half of the Gulf, but bring it NE towards the Eastern Gulf

I think the pattern will be quite different than the ones that brought the other systems into Mexico

Several models also have shown that the system splits and part of it does go into Mexico, but a low forms from energy still left in the Gulf

First, it's an invest, so I don't buy any model at this point. As I wrote, if it gets into the BOC still being an invest, it might get to be a hurricane, but it's not getting out of the BOC. I have no clue what happens if the models are right except that, if it gets stuck in the BOC as a weak system, it's not going to leave the BOC. If the last five storms were not enough to convince you the, we'll see what happens once 95L does develop, assuming that occurs.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
SHIP has almost no shear over 95L after 48 hours but the same was for Ingrid and we know what occurred.

SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 12 8 12 1 5 3 4 1 5 4
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15291
617. IKE

Quoting SLU:


No. It's 2013 .. remember?
lol
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Quoting 555. SLU:


No. It's 2013 .. remember?


Lol of course
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615. IKE

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here we go with 95L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309170105
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013091700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 177N, 852W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 179N, 860W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 181N, 868W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091618, , BEST, 0, 183N, 876W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091700, , BEST, 0, 185N, 884W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
And there it goes into Mexico....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
What?! A dust devil that strong in my home state? Where in Virginia was it?

Says Henry, VA on the printout.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
A few showers... after 7-10 days without a single drop.

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Quoting 586. SLU:
Suicide watch now in effect for any one won't be able to handle this:


Well
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Quoting 608. sar2401:

Unless 95L can get into the BOC as something more than an invest, it's going to be Fernand V...or how ever many invests, TD's, TS's and hurricanes we've had in the BOC this year. If it's not intensifying and moving NE before it gets to 22.5n, it's going to keel over and take a left into Mexico. I hate to be a downcaster on these BOC storms but, OTOH, I've also been right, so, at some point, this gets to be a trend.


not sure I agree with this one

several of the models develop the low in the western half of the Gulf, but bring it NE towards the Eastern Gulf

I think the pattern will be quite different than the ones that brought the other systems into Mexico

Several models also have shown that the system splits and part of it does go into Mexico, but a low forms from energy still left in the Gulf
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They are, they tried to do the same thing to Ingrid.

The BAMS and BAMD have both done well with BOC storms this year, taking every single one of them into Mexico while other models were taking them all over the place. I wouldn't discount either model yet.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
Quoting 601. sar2401:

Never knew they had dust devils in Virginia, let alone ones that could pick up a large tent and throw it down with enough force to injure six people
What?! A dust devil that strong in my home state? Where in Virginia was it?
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 562
Quoting WxLogic:
We'll soon enough see if 95L would amount to anything in a few days.

The ULL over the GOM is expected to pull away and/or diminish in 48 to 72 hours.

Unless 95L can get into the BOC as something more than an invest, it's going to be Fernand V...or how ever many invests, TD's, TS's and hurricanes we've had in the BOC this year. If it's not intensifying and moving NE before it gets to 22.5n, it's going to keel over and take a left into Mexico. I hate to be a downcaster on these BOC storms but, OTOH, I've also been right, so, at some point, this gets to be a trend.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
Quoting 605. Hurricanes101:
Bam Models are way off I think


They are, they tried to do the same thing to Ingrid.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24682
606. MahFL
Quoting 604. whitewabit:


would imagine the attached poles hurt the people .. a tent could be picked up quite easily if wind got under it ..


Also it was multiple tents not just one.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3988
Bam Models are way off I think
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
604. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 601. sar2401:

Never knew they had dust devils in Virginia, let alone ones that could pick up a large tent and throw it down with enough force to injure six people


would imagine the attached poles hurt the people .. a tent could be picked up quite easily if wind got under it ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 33352
603. MahFL
Quoting 601. sar2401:

Never knew they had dust devils in Virginia, let alone ones that could pick up a large tent and throw it down with enough force to injure six people


The downward part is due to something called gravity......:P.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3988
Quoting 598. RGVtropicalWx13:
First model runs on 95L..
The thought of the system moving N/E is because of a trough digging in from the n/w into the gulf.However if it is not as strong as it suppose to be then the system may go into Mexico/Texas.95l ck out 500mb theta e.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
601. sar2401
1:38 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting Bluestorm5:
6 injuries from... dust devil?


Never knew they had dust devils in Virginia, let alone ones that could pick up a large tent and throw it down with enough force to injure six people
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
600. WxLogic
1:38 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
We'll soon enough see if 95L would amount to anything in a few days.

The ULL over the GOM is expected to pull away and/or diminish in 48 to 72 hours.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5047
599. interstatelover7166
1:37 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting 576. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
He's trying. At least he's trying.
Member Since: October 15, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
598. RGVtropicalWx13
1:36 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
First model runs on 95L..
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 567
597. sar2401
1:33 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
First time ever to be honest.Is like when I found that Andrea can be also a male name.A prince I believe of Monaco is name Andrea casiragi or something like that.

Yep, it's Andrea Albert Pierre Casiraghi, second in line for the throne of Monaco. He's one of the real royal heartthrobs today, but he's had a difficult life for a guy so young, so being part of royalty doesn't guarantee happiness. :-(
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 19037
596. Funication
1:32 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
HA...watch Humberto
Member Since: July 7, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 116
595. WxLogic
1:32 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Good Evening... before I go to bed LOL.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5047
594. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:26 AM GMT on September 17, 2013

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
9:00 AM JST September 17 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.4N 111.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM USAGI (T1319)
9:00 AM JST September 17 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Usagi (1000 hPa) located at 17.8N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 128.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.3N 125.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.4N 121.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 54 Comments: 48484
593. SLU
1:25 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting 588. wxgeek723:


Dat nor'easter o_0


I was mostly referring to the comatose Atlantic. :)
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5374
592. ncstorm
1:24 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16287
591. Charmeck
1:20 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting 587. canehater1:


Actually I said Cat Stevens which , technically , is incorrect.


Yusuf Islam IS Cat Stevens!!!
Member Since: August 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 144
590. Tropicsweatherpr
1:18 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Here we go with 95L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309170105
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013091700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 177N, 852W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 179N, 860W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 181N, 868W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091618, , BEST, 0, 183N, 876W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2013091700, , BEST, 0, 185N, 884W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15291
589. Bluestorm5
1:12 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
6 injuries from... dust devil?

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8096
588. wxgeek723
1:12 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting 586. SLU:
Suicide watch now in effect for any one won't be able to handle this:



Dat nor'easter o_0
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3858
587. canehater1
1:10 AM GMT on September 17, 2013
Quoting 585. srqthymesage:
Yeah, that's what canehater1 said, too.


Actually I said Cat Stevens which , technically , is incorrect.
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1086

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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