Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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945. HuracanTaino
3:44 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 7544:


agree now till oct ends look to the caribiean any thing could pop up at any time imo and dont forget we still did not have one major yet and oct is coming soon and it it just might happen down there .
I'm looking forward for a Lenny in late October and NOvember,,who knows? Is that kind of a weird year....
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
944. HuracanTaino
3:42 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting CaribBoy:
Where are my PR mates?
I'm here..
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1017
943. Brillig
2:56 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 865. Torito:
Humberto still gaining convection, even though it is doing so slowly.



Looks like a strong outflow boundary line is squelching further convection and even the circulation.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 408
942. 7544
2:35 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 934. CaribBoy:


It's OVER.



agree now till oct ends look to the caribiean any thing could pop up at any time imo and dont forget we still did not have one major yet and oct is coming soon and it it just might happen down there .
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
941. CaribBoy
2:35 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Where are my PR mates?
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
940. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
939. CaribBoy
2:33 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 821. JrWeathermanFL:
I consider a 13/6/2 year to be normal. That's just my opinion. Only 4/4/2 left :P


Lol we won't get 2 majors.. but maybe 4 ugly 75MPH canes like INGRID
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
938. Torito
2:33 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 6 Comments: 4467
937. CaribBoy
2:31 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 882. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Don't tell CaribBoy...it may break his heart


1 inch so far this september. Bored to death lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
936. redwagon
2:30 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 932. redwagon:




Lotsa stuff to track now that we finally got that MJO out of our hair. All it did was raise dry air even higher so it could be even further dried out.


BTW that little blob down by Panama is where Carla formed 50 or so years ago.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383
935. hydrus
2:29 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 912. StormTrackerScott:
The pattern we are entering here in FL is worrisome as the train of storms crossing the state is about to occur and I am willing to bet our days of a major NOT hitting the US are about to come to an end of the next several weeks.
Would you please explain when you post something like this. I read your posts, but you dont always provide any info on why you think an event will occur.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24570
934. CaribBoy
2:29 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 910. VR46L:
Africa looks on shut down... The only cloud I could find



It's OVER.

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
933. daddyjames
2:28 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 922. redwagon:


You mean a Wilma-type. CARIB water is the hottest around, wouldn't take much of a wave to spin up, what with all the instability Ingrid has left in her wake.


LOL - took me a moment to realize that you were referencing what I said in #915.

Looks as if the moisture flow that will be established from "los gemelos mal" brings much needed rain into the high plains, but not until the second front arrives, as most of this accumulates in the last 48 hours.

Unfortunately, if this pans out - Mexico still has a lot more rain in its forecast. This is additional to what has already fallen.



Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3735
932. redwagon
2:28 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 925. 7544:
morning all getting a little blobish from the antilies going west keeps one eye out there and close to home stay tuned




Lotsa stuff to track now that we finally got that MJO out of our hair. All it did was raise dry air even higher so it could be even further dried out.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383
930. CaribBoy
2:27 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 923. StormTrackerScott:
Getting warmer and warmer each passing day. Makes one wonder if El-Nino is finally coming.



Anyway IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING IN THE MDR. AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
929. wunderkidcayman
2:25 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Oh yeah Humberto is back alive advisories should start within 30-45mins
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13577
928. pcola57
2:25 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 924. Neapolitan:
It's alive:

AL, 09, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 426W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 140, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,


Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6927
927. CaribBoy
2:25 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 881. VR46L:


Shhh .. If he thinks there is a possibility he is not so grumpy ... If no possibility He gets Very grumpy....



No possibility with this one. Trinidad and Tobago will get rain again... but that's a normal situation being in september. Ours, though, IS NOT NORMAL! THAT DROUGHT IS NOT NORMAL AT ALL!!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
926. wunderkidcayman
2:24 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Morning guys looks like it just about right that its the Caribbean and BOC and GOM time to shine during the second half of season as I said I think see 1-2 more storms for the month the when Oct ome I'm expecting to see most of the storm development to occur in the Caribbean and mostly W of 70°W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 13577
925. 7544
2:22 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
morning all getting a little blobish from the antilies going west keeps one eye out there and close to home stay tuned
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
924. Neapolitan
2:21 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
It's alive:

AL, 09, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 426W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 140, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 14375
922. redwagon
2:19 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 913. daddyjames:




You mean a Wilma-type. CARIB water is the hottest around, wouldn't take much of a wave to spin up, what with all the instability Ingrid has left in her wake.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383
921. CaribBoy
2:18 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 864. superpete:
T wave approaching 55 W with a decent amount of convection.Certainly a low-rider with a possibility to watch down the road.Conditions dont look that good for development, until it passes 70 west

CaribBoy - Should miss you by a good margin



As usual.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6614
920. pcola57
2:17 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Morning VR,27windows,hydrus,scott,allan,GT,yoboi and everyone lurking.. :)
I am waiting for a new post from Dr. Masters..
Should be very interesting as poor Mexico has taken it on the chin..
And,in my eyes, several areas of interest lurking..
I expect the five day forecasts from the NHC to start to become more forthcoming..
Also, I am very interested in Dr. Masters mention of his posting on his experience in Gilbert as he stated a couple of posts ago..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6927
919. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:16 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 910. VR46L:
Africa looks on shut down... The only cloud I could find

I was always skeptical about an active Cape-Verde season, I said that this year look closer to home for development. I mean the activity in that region from the last 3 years has been somewhat hyperactive, so that is energy well spent and burnt out. Now that energy is focused elsewhere.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9187
917. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:14 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 912. StormTrackerScott:
The pattern we are entering here in FL is worrisome as the train of storms crossing the state is about to occur and I am willing to bet our days of a major NOT hitting the US are about to come to an end of the next several weeks.
I'll believe it when I see it. Last major to cross the state was Wilma which was 8 years ago. I suppose we will see one make landfall again I just don't know when.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9187
916. redwagon
2:14 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 911. StormTrackerScott:


We are going to see multiple lows form. Look at the Euro here at day 10. It shows one low over FL and another in the BOC.



Well, our 10-day in Austin is 20,20,20,50,70,40,0,50,40,40% so *something* must be coming.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383
915. daddyjames
2:14 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 911. StormTrackerScott:


We are going to see multiple lows form. Look at the Euro here at day 10. It shows one low over FL and another in the BOC.



Yeah, the last thing you want to see - going into October - is the BOC/GOM being the center of activity for the hurricane season . . .
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3735
913. daddyjames
2:11 PM GMT on September 16, 2013


Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3735
910. VR46L
2:08 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Africa looks on shut down... The only cloud I could find

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7094
908. VR46L
2:07 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 903. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...





Should see some of those drough areas colours change on the next two maps .
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7094
907. redwagon
2:06 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 895. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah I agree especially now since all the models develope atleast an area of weak low pressure in the Gulf. Also the models are indicating several lows forming in the Gulf & Caribbean and riding NE over FL and the NW Bahamas. Fact of the matter is a very active pattern is setting up for FL one which could create a very dangerous flood threat down the road.




Models unsure where in the GOM to send the CARIB feature.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383
906. daddyjames
2:05 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 901. hydrus:
52 degrees with low humidity. Getting a bit behind in the rainfall department. Checking the long range to see if we will have a stormy fall and winter. I am hanging in there but swamped with work.


whoo - a bit brisk outside this morning! Better swamped with work than rain, although you don't necessarily want to fall behind in either. :)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3735
905. VR46L
2:05 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 898. StormTrackerScott:


Just because your location is dry doesn't mean the rest of are. Infact the only dry county in FL is Brevard County all other areas are well above average for rainfall really since April 1st.


But Alot of Floridians seem to want the wet season to not stop ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7094
904. daddyjames
2:03 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 898. StormTrackerScott:


Just because your location is dry doesn't mean the rest of are. Infact the only dry county in FL is Brevard County all other areas are well above average for rainfall really since April 1st.


Remember, all weather, like politics, is local.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3735
903. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:03 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Good morning everyone...



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 9187
902. pcola57
2:01 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 896. hydrus:
Notice the Western Caribbean Sea.



Morning hydrus..
I don't have access to the pressure readings that stormpetrol posted last night..
But noticed several areas of lower pressures in that area..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6927
901. hydrus
2:01 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 891. daddyjames:


Top o' the morning to you hydrus, how are things in your neck of the woods?
52 degrees with low humidity. Getting a bit behind in the rainfall department. Checking the long range to see if we will have a stormy fall and winter. I am hanging in there but swamped with work.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24570
900. MiamiNative
2:01 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Key West to West Palm Beach and beyond is about to get (or already getting) some nasty weather again today.

Member Since: July 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
899. Tropicsweatherpr
2:00 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
We have once again Humberto.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942013_al092013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309161329
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15608
897. pcola57
1:59 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 892. allancalderini:
That wave east of the leseer antilles reminds me of Matthew of 2010.


Been keeping an eye on that allan..
It does seem a bit sneeky and entering a prime area..
Anything is possible this season..
The un-predictable..
By the way Ingrid looks like she just might make a rain disaster for folks in Mexico.. :(
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6927
896. hydrus
1:59 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Notice the Western Caribbean Sea.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 24570

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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