Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 464. Skyepony:
Nearly 500 unaccounted for in the CO floods.
I've seen totals today as high as near 1000, taking into account all the counties involved. Unfortunately the rain seems set to continue until tomorrow, at least, making it difficult to account for quite a number of people isolated by washed out roads and streams that have jumped their banks.
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Mexico's radar - sigh ...
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543. xcool
Professional-Met ozonepete Clearly blocked to the west and so climbing north very slowly


storm2k.com
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Quoting 505. redwagon:


Ingrid was post-INLAND at 23oN according to Avila, tomorrow. It's not anywhere near landfall, and still moving NW.


So Ingrid will not make landfall tomorrow? Or are you in the Texas camp?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
Quoting 528. StormMan:
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar.


Actually, it could just be some shear from the south at the mid-levels pushing the midlevel circulation north a bit. Just mentioning the possibility. I did see some clouds approaching Ingrid from the south south west on the floater loop. The high clouds seem to be blowing straight through Ingrid from due west.

It is no sure bet to determine motion of a weak system from the radar, particularly at long range where the radar is sampling the upper part of the storm, not the low level circulation.
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Quoting 520. Chicklit:
amazing how these CV waves dissipate right after reaching the Atlantic.
Link


Hey Chicklit..
Looks like a vacuum cleaner sucked 'em up..
Lots of stable stabling I guess?? :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Quoting 535. whipster:
Moving due W now...like it hit a wall.


Yes, I saw that too. Ingrid must be crashing right now...
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Quoting 528. StormMan:
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar:



Ingrid will have to do a swan off a 200-mile platform into MX in order to keep up with the NHC cone, at this rate.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Quoting 445. PensacolaDoug:



picky, picky...
Agreed... I'm entirely willing to settle for just the pineapple and orange slices... lol...

Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.
Glad you all got through it OK. There should be some provision for paid leave in special cases like this, but I guess that's not likely in the modern economic climate... :o/... Get some rest, but keep us posted later on...
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Moving due W now...like it hit a wall.
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
Quoting 499. SLU:
SAB continues to believe that Ingrid is not entirely a hurricane

15/2345 UTC 23.0N 96.1W T3.5/4.0 INGRID -- Atlantic


Satellite presentation is really POOR for a hurricane... another bad performance of 2013... BRAVO (irony) 2013!
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Quoting 452. CaicosRetiredSailor:
WHO DAT!!!!!!!!!
WHO DAT bailed out by the 1-sided officiating. Every time the Bucs player hit the receivers for the Saints it was flagged for a personal foul. The fact is the NFL is watered down nowadays it's getting closer to the point that we will be watching 2-hand touch football, unless they revert back to the way things were. This whole thing about player safety is too safe, now they delay games for rain, something they would not have done like 5 years ago. Anyone old enough to remember the 1967 Ice Bowl played between the Packers and Cowboys, extremely harsh conditions, frigid cold temperatures, and a malfunctioning heating system led to a thin layer of ice covering the field. The game was still played.
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532. txjac
Quoting 528. StormMan:
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar:



I wish that there was some way to make it magically appear on Houston/Galveston radar ...wishful thinking
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Quoting 510. sar2401:

How did you come up with that location for Manuel? The NHC has it at 19.5N 104.5W. Your location is at least 100 miles further north and east. It's also moving NW, not NE. Are you basing it on the cloud appearance? if so you're wrong, the center is exactly where the NHC put it, not that swirl of clouds inland. Manuel is over 400 miles from Ingrid, and there a lot of 10,000 to 15,000 mountain peaks between the two of them. Ingrid is continuing to slowly push slowly NW to landfall in Mexico, while Manuel continues on his way NW toward Puerto Vallarta. Neither storm is going to have a substantial influence on the other at this point.
You could have stated your opinion without telling him he's wrong. That's little rude, you think?
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Quoting 523. StormMan:

From the NHC discussion on Manuel earlier this afternoon:

MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL DISSIPATES.

Seems the NHC is all over this model glitch.
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18z HWRF simulated GOES infrared satellite for hour 120:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar.

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Quoting 511. Skyepony:
Title: Damaged Fukushima plant on typhoon alert
Source: NHK
Date: Sept. 15, 2013

Workers [...] are increasing patrols to make sure contaminated water does not overflow in the heavy rain.

[...] By Sunday afternoon, it has already brought heavy rain fall of 41.5 millimeters per hour in a town near the crippled power plant.

The operators are strengthening patrols to prevent rain from entering and overflowing the basement of turbine buildings and the underground tunnel where highly contaminated water has accumulated.

They found water overflowing from a fence around storage tanks near the Number 4 reactor on Sunday afternoon. TEPCO officials are inspecting the leaked water to determine if its contaminated. [...]


That ain't good.. :(
Getting kinda windy too..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6840
Quoting 451. pcola57:


Your a trooper aisln..
Gods speed Zander..
Quoting 486. wunderkidcayman:

Our AOI it's not labeled as INVEST yet on ATCF or NAVY and another thing I don't trust navy too much anyway Boo NAVY yay MARINES lol

You should think about joining. You could learn a thing or two. Don't put down our military....BOY!
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Quoting 510. sar2401:

How did you come up with that location for Manuel? The NHC has it at 19.5N 104.5W. Your location is at least 100 miles further north and east. It's also moving NW, not NE. Are you basing it on the cloud appearance? if so you're wrong, the center is exactly where the NHC put it, not that swirl of clouds inland. Manuel is over 400 miles from Ingrid, and there a lot of 10,000 to 15,000 mountain peaks between the two of them. Ingrid is continuing to slowly push slowly NW to landfall in Mexico, while Manuel continues on his way NW toward Puerto Vallarta. Neither storm is going to have a substantial influence on the other at this point.


Ok, I can understand the "low level" center becoming separated, but, watch the satellite loops, how do you then explain the apparent cause of Ingrid's sudden change of direction that happens to apparently correlate with that of the "swirl of clouds" that was created by Manuel?
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Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Humberto is firing convection very near its center in the face of 50 knots of wind shear.

Let's go Humberto! Let's go Humberto! Let's go Humberto! C'mon, you can do it! He'll be back-like the Terminator told ya!
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Quoting 482. victoria780:
Maybe another trough digging in from the north is weakening the ridge to allow Ingrid to move more north then anticipated?


I don't know, it appears Manuel is operating beyond the comprehension of the models (at the moment). Yes, there is a trough over the western CONUS, but is it the one pulling Manuel north? Seems there is a ridge in the way, but, the models (I just checked several) do not locate Manuel's rotational vortex as it appears on the satellite, so, who knows!

this is where science is yet to catch up with nature...I'm sure if this works out different than forecast there will be a lot of intensive studying on how this happened...

:)

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Quoting 408. washingtonian115:
More BOC trash coming!.Where is the excitement/originality and suspense this season?.I just haven't been feeling this season at all.It feels redundant.Well I'm off to go do more exciting things than watch the weather in the tropics literally be stuck on replay.


I completely agree. Ingrid has never looked quite like a hurricane to me and just looks kinda sloppy and unimpressive. Nothing this season has impressed me much so far. Humberto was somewhat impressive for a time but ended up being a very ordinary category 1 hurricane.
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Quoting 516. txjac:


This mess right here should be looked in to by the UN. Global consequences ...


I agree - and it shouldn't be the USA's sole problem either. I am getting tired of us being the worlds Mr. Fixit. We have our own problems to solve at the moment too. I don't mind us HELPING.
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amazing how these CV waves dissipate right after reaching the Atlantic.
Link
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Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


I've had my pulmonary valve replaced several years the old fashioned way, so I know what your son is going through. I thrilled that he is doing well and so pleased he didnt have to deal with the full blown open heart and was able to do the cath lab. Good luck to him and your family during this difficult time, but Im sure he'll be fine.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

It just looks interesting atm, and the NHC has mentioned it. It's not a designated invest yet, just an area of interest.

Oh, I get it now - a Blog AOI. :-) There are a few bloggers who always see an AOI in the NW Caribbean. The NHC should give them a permanent invest number.
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I'll go with the Brownsville radar presentation, and above satellite images and place the center of Ingrid at 23.5N & 96.0W; moving NNW.
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516. txjac
Quoting 515. Dakster:
Skyepony that is not good news.

I hope that TEPCO gets its act together and soon. SO far they are still dropping the ball.


This mess right here should be looked in to by the UN. Global consequences ...
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Skyepony that is not good news.

I hope that TEPCO gets its act together and soon. SO far they are still dropping the ball.
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Is that mission 13 still in the storm?? Seems like they have been there a while.
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Humberto is firing convection very near its center in the face of 50 knots of wind shear.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
"The Marine Corps is a component of the United States Department of the Navy." wikipedia, I checked just to be sure. The Marines don't have their own academy. Go Navy, beat Army!
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511. Skyepony (Mod)
Title: Damaged Fukushima plant on typhoon alert
Source: NHK
Date: Sept. 15, 2013

Workers [...] are increasing patrols to make sure contaminated water does not overflow in the heavy rain.

[...] By Sunday afternoon, it has already brought heavy rain fall of 41.5 millimeters per hour in a town near the crippled power plant.

The operators are strengthening patrols to prevent rain from entering and overflowing the basement of turbine buildings and the underground tunnel where highly contaminated water has accumulated.

They found water overflowing from a fence around storage tanks near the Number 4 reactor on Sunday afternoon. TEPCO officials are inspecting the leaked water to determine if it%u2019s contaminated. [...]
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Quoting theyoungmet:
WOW! Manuel with the surprise of the day, by moving substantially more inland than forecasted, and I mean seriously more inland, look at the picture I attached below. This will have a big effect on Ingrid's future track. If you go on the latest satellite imagery, you can see Manuel's shear size pushing Ingrid's convective field to the eastward slightly. Over the last three hours, Ingrid has moved away from her forecast point in a more NE direction. As you can also see below, the green dot is her current center and below that is her forecast point for this same time period(NHC). I wouldn't call this a wobble either, because it is due to Manuel's westward movement. If he continues inland, you could see Ingrid get pushed more northward. Mexico still seems to be her target, but she is getting closer to Texas than originally projected. Interesting.






How did you come up with that location for Manuel? The NHC has it at 19.5N 104.5W. Your location is at least 100 miles further north and east. It's also moving NW, not NE. Are you basing it on the cloud appearance? if so you're wrong, the center is exactly where the NHC put it, not that swirl of clouds inland. Manuel is over 400 miles from Ingrid, and there a lot of 10,000 to 15,000 mountain peaks between the two of them. Ingrid is continuing to slowly push slowly NW to landfall in Mexico, while Manuel continues on his way NW toward Puerto Vallarta. Neither storm is going to have a substantial influence on the other at this point.
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Whatever happened to Largo? I was in Clearwater Beach this weekend and was thinking of my fellow Tampa area bloggers. BTW, what an awesome weekend it was on the beach. A little hot and we got a little sunburned - But what great weather overall.
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508. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
9:00 AM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Nagano Prefecture

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (975 hPa) located at 35.3N 137.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 24 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 47.6N 151.8E - Extratropical Low In Kurils Water
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45581
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Quoting 479. sar2401:

What NW Caribbean AOI are you talking about? I don't see on on the Navy site.

It just looks interesting atm, and the NHC has mentioned it. It's not a designated invest yet, just an area of interest.
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Quoting 494. GeoffreyWPB:


Nothing is going to take Ingrid north. Sometimes it is what it is.


Ingrid was post-INLAND at 23oN according to Avila, tomorrow. It's not anywhere near landfall, and still moving NW.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Aislinpapps - I wish your son a speedy recovery. Been through some tough time with mine when they were infants and my son last year with a sports injury. NOTHING like what you are going through. Godspeed to you and Zander.

--

And here's to no storms for you to deal with. You don't need that headache!
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Quoting 488. victoria780:
whats your reasoning chicklit or just post another picture

NHC has Ingrid taking a hard left.

Cowboy was posting earlier today that he thought the ridge would not build and Ingrid would go north.

Everyone is hoping that is the case, but the models are sticking to westward movement.
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Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.
They say almost nothing is as hard as open-heart surgery. Luckily, in this case, it didn't have to be.
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501. Skyepony (Mod)
Live feed overlooking the disabled nuclear power plant at Fukushima. The clouds & rain are from Cyclone Man-Yi. By the floater & models a ~60kt cyclone should pass near directly over Fukushima in about 5 hrs.

16W MAN-YI

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Hey stormpetrol how is the current wx in the Caymans???
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499. SLU
SAB continues to believe that Ingrid is not entirely a hurricane

15/2345 UTC 23.0N 96.1W T3.5/4.0 INGRID -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5253
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


My thoughts and prayers go out.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265
And Humberto has regaling convection and now spreading over the LLC I think may get reactivated as TS Humberto later tonight or sometime in the morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
test
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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