Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 577. GatorWX:
Gosh, there's a lot going on!



Looks like that convective band from Manuel heading N towards Ingrid is gonna bump her a little N. We still have center reloc concerns with Ingrid at this point.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3236
Humberto looking good.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
I'm sorry INGRID, you're not selected for the 2013 SUPERMODEL CONTEST.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168


Bret was forecast to go into Mexico south of Brownsville and models shifted at last minute and he went in almost 100 miles north of Brownsville.
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Good Evening Class!
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Quoting 578. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would be beneficial to them if they get the rains over a span of time, as opposed to all at once.


If I had the choice between the two with this scenario...I would take all at once.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
Quoting 581. sar2401:

Remember "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre", with Humphrey Bogart? "Badges....I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges"? Those were the Sierra Madres that the movie was actually filmed in.
I knew that!
I also know it's probably best to keep an open mind on the possibilities with these cyclones. Never good to get too emotional. Here, with Ingrid, the NHC said in it's last discussion there was little chance for much intensification within the following 12 hours....and at the same time they forecast a move north to an eventual landfall at 23N. It's just 5 hours later and the cyclone is north of 23N already. They might be wrong about the intensity as well. Might. It's not an exact science.
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Looks to me like Ingrid is still completely embedded in the monsoon trough, which now extends east of the Yucatan. At the same time, an ull is moving west in the ne gom. Shear looks 20-25 kts from the west. The combination of the stretched mid-upper level vorticity and wind shear is keeping it very unbalanced and I first noticed last night what looked like a mid level spin break off towards the se. Since then the monsoon trough has repositioned itself and built eastward into the wcarib. I remember reading from the Melbourne NWS discussion, a tropical or perhaps baroclinic low could form in the wcarib as evidenced by the euro and gfs. I haven't looked at models yet, but I think I remember seeing the gfs throwing a large system ne into the atl earlier today in the long range.

IMO
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No Spoilers. I wouldn't do that.
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586. beell
Quoting 581. sar2401:

Remember "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre", with Humphrey Bogart? "Badges....I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges"? Those were the Sierra Madres that the movie was actually filmed in.


Which Sierra Madre?
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Quoting 580. Hurricanes101:
Now I know this blog has lost it when they start yelling at the storms


The 2013 hurricane season will do that to you
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
The main convection sure made a good jog to the north. The further north the better for Texas. The COC might just be where the NHC has placed it though. Will be interesting to see the next update.
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Quoting 578. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would be beneficial to them if they get the rains over a span of time, as opposed to all at once.


Actually, that seems true, and it is in case of severe flooding rains...however, that is precisely what central Texas needs, you see, there have been several cases of localized 3-6" rain falls in the LCRA buckets (lining the tributaries that feed the watershed), but, the ground is so empty, instead of running off it just disappears.

We truly do need flooding rains (with fast rainfall rates) to make enough surface drainage to feed the watershed...

And that is how Texas droughts are usually busted...
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582. beell
Quoting 568. bappit:
LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.
.


A good caution from your previous post. Beam height to the circular radar returns from KBRO ought to be at least 25-30,000'.
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Quoting bappit:
LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.
"the Sierra Madre del Sur, runs from Michoacán to Oaxaca" (wikipedia) has probably decapitated Manuel what with the upper winds streaming in from the Pacific. This season I've seen the NHC track both the low level and mid level circulations of storms after they decouple.

Remember "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre", with Humphrey Bogart? "Badges....I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges"? Those were the Sierra Madres that the movie was actually filmed in.
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Now I know this blog has lost it when they start yelling at the storms
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Quoting 568. bappit:

LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.


You mean based on the radar? If so, did you notice that you are also seeing it more in the north too?

Could it be the "westward jump" is simply the storms rotating around the core becoming more visible to the radar as the entire system moves north?

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Quoting 570. GeoffreyWPB:


Hope you get the rain you need.
It would be beneficial to them if they get the rains over a span of time, as opposed to all at once.
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Gosh, there's a lot going on!

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100 MPH? It should probably start to do something other than look like a complete train wreck if it wants to become anything more than an ugly, rainmaking minimum cat 1.
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
No spoilers. Putting you on ignore just in case.
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What the hell is wrong with Ingrid? it looks absolutely pathetic!
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Quoting 570. GeoffreyWPB:


Hope you get the rain you need. You don't need a direct hit to achieve that.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
Quoting 553. sar2401:

Why would Ingrid be a candidate for RI? It's not over an area of deep warm water. In its present location, the water is over 2000 feet deep and there has to be some cold water upwelling taking place. Wind shear is and has been a problem since it became a storm. There are no anticyclones formed or forming in the vicinity of the storm. The pressure would have to drop to 945 mb in 24 hours. Ingrid has been hanging around out there for over 24 hours as a hurricane and has never had significantly low pressure, let alone a significant pressure drop. I see Ingrid as possibly a 90 mph hurricane if things go just right and it gets in some shallow, warm water before landfall. I see absolutely no chance for RI.

From 75mph to 90mph between now and landfall can also be considered as RI but yeah I'm expecting Ingrid could make it to a 90-95mph hurricane just maybe it could push it to 100mph just before or as it make landfall just maybe
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Levi's forcast from 3-4 days ago is coming to life.
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Quoting 562. redwagon:


Am I in the TX camp? I have a lake 60ft low that needs 40" just to put it back to *normal*. Our *normal* annual rainfall is ~30".



Inching closer.



Hope you get the rain you need.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You could have stated your opinion without telling him he's wrong. That's little rude, you think?

Blue, it wasn't my opinion, it was the NHC's opinion. It was his opinion that the NHC was wrong about both the location and direction of movement for Miguel. He's wrong. It's not my job to make him feel better about being wrong. If I had said something like "you're an absolute moron...and you're wrong", that would have been rude. He, of course, has every right and opportunity to show us how he's correct.
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LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.
Quoting 548. beell:


I, for one was surprised to hear there were a lot of 10-15,000' mountains between Ingrid and Manuel.
:)

"the Sierra Madre del Sur, runs from Michoacn to Oaxaca" (wikipedia) has probably decapitated Manuel what with the upper winds streaming in from the Pacific. This season I've seen the NHC track both the low level and mid level circulations of storms after they decouple. [They seem to pick one or the other.]
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Quoting 553. sar2401:

Why would Ingrid be a candidate for RI? It's not over an area of deep warm water. In its present location, the water is over 2000 feet deep and there has to be some cold water upwelling taking place. Wind shear is and has been a problem since it became a storm. There are no anticyclones formed or forming in the vicinity of the storm. The pressure would have to drop to 945 mb in 24 hours. Ingrid has been hanging around out there for over 24 hours as a hurricane and has never had significantly low pressure, let alone a significant pressure drop. I see Ingrid as possibly a 90 mph hurricane if things go just right and it gets in some shallow, warm water before landfall. I see absolutely no chance for RI.
Thanks to Manuel, Ingrid wasn't given that full opportunity to take advantage of its surrounding environment, the atmospheric conditions, the upper level outflow from Manuel and caught in the monsoon envelope kept her in check. It also prevent Manuel from becoming terribly strong as well, that and if you factor in proximity to land, and perhaps the mountains over Mexico driving down some dry air into the circulation of Ingrid.
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Anyone here watching "Breaking Bad"?

Holy Moly!

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Quoting 474. Chicklit:
While Texans pray for rain more bad news from Colorado...Some 1,500 homes have been destroyed and about 17,500 have been damaged, according to an initial estimate released by the Colorado Office of Emergency Management.

Some people just don't know what's come of their relatives. A Dallas man saw a photo of his mother's Big Thompson Canyon home in ruins on a Denver TV website. "I don't know that she's even OK," Rob Clements told The Coloradoan about his mother, Libby Orr, 73, with whom he last spoke on Thursday. "I presume she is. But her house, if not completely gone, fell into the river and is most of the way gone."


Link USA Today Minutes Ago
There have been two different reports of elderly ladies observed to have been in houses which were washed away by flood waters. They are missing and presumed to be dead, but so far not actually added to any death toll. Authorities are being very circumspect about declaring any deaths without bodies.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22081

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Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I still think we can get up to 15 named storms, but I was going with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors, so I might bust in that department. Still I would keep eyes to the south of us, especially when we get into October. You know what would be ironic is if we broke the major hurricane drought on the US. with a storm hitting in the same spot as Wilma did or near to that spot.
Yea...we don't really need that. But it seems like some of the ingredients may be in place for something like that...
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Quoting 542. GeoffreyWPB:


So Ingrid will not make landfall tomorrow? Or are you in the Texas camp?


Am I in the TX camp? I have a lake 60ft low that needs 40" just to put it back to *normal*. Our *normal* annual rainfall is ~30".



Inching closer.

Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3236
I got the internet back and was not evacuated so i'm back on :p It looks like Ingrid is affecting something in the US at least

In addition to the Brownsville lSD, the following school are also closing due to bad weather tomorrow:

St Joseph Academy
Brownsville

IDEA and IDEA Frontier
Brownsville

Incarnate Word Academy
Brownsville

Trinity Lutheran Christian Childcare
Brownsville

Harmony Science Academy
Brownsville.

Livingway Leadership Academy and Jubilee Leadership Academy
Brownsville

(Source: KRGV.com)
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Quoting 552. StormMan:


Agreed, definitely not even showing the eyewall or what's left of it on radar yet, just storms circulating around it and they are becoming better visible on the 248nm....

so if the storm tops are moving closer I am thinking the rest of the storm is too because I do not believe it is becoming that sheared, at least with apparently storms that are staying intact and are moving in the direction of storm circulation...

will be watching since the radar is better than any satellite we have at the moment to showing what is happening under the canopy in practically realtime

:)
Sure a lot further north then predicted,yesterday the highest latitude it was suppose to be was 22.5 before inland/
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Quoting 550. GatorWX:
Sloppy looking little storm, again.



Agree Gator..
Looks to be getting sheared now in the north quad..



Good little rain maker though..
Maybe Texas relief..??
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Quoting 550. GatorWX:
Sloppy looking little storm, again.



Slow-moving sloppy storms can be the worse as far as rainfall.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
Quoting 550. GatorWX:
Sloppy looking little storm, again.



That's perfectly fine, we just need the rain :)
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hmmmm, now that's interesting..





I think that, combined with wind shear, would explain much of the strung out orientation.
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Quoting 522. HurrMichaelOrl:


I completely agree. Ingrid has never looked quite like a hurricane to me and just looks kinda sloppy and unimpressive. Nothing this season has impressed me much so far. Humberto was somewhat impressive for a time but ended up being a very ordinary category 1 hurricane.
I still think we can get up to 15 named storms, but I was going with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors, so I might bust in that department. Still I would keep eyes to the south of us, especially when we get into October. You know what would be ironic is if we broke the major hurricane drought on the US. with a storm hitting in the same spot as Wilma did or near to that spot.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yep I think Ingrid may RI until landfall and I think landfall will be further N as well

Why would Ingrid be a candidate for RI? It's not over an area of deep warm water. In its present location, the water is over 2000 feet deep and there has to be some cold water upwelling taking place. Wind shear is and has been a problem since it became a storm. There are no anticyclones formed or forming in the vicinity of the storm. The pressure would have to drop to 945 mb in 24 hours. Ingrid has been hanging around out there for over 24 hours as a hurricane and has never had significantly low pressure, let alone a significant pressure drop. I see Ingrid as possibly a 90 mph hurricane if things go just right and it gets in some shallow, warm water before landfall. I see absolutely no chance for RI.
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Quoting 541. bappit:

Actually, it could just be some shear from the south at the mid-levels pushing the midlevel circulation north a bit. Just mentioning the possibility. I did see some clouds approaching Ingrid from the south south west on the floater loop. The high clouds seem to be blowing straight through Ingrid from due west.

It is no sure bet to determine motion of a weak system from the radar, particularly at long range where the radar is sampling the upper part of the storm, not the low level circulation.


Agreed, definitely not even showing the eyewall or what's left of it on radar yet, just storms circulating around it and they are becoming better visible on the 248nm....

so if the storm tops are moving closer I am thinking the rest of the storm is too because I do not believe it is becoming that sheared, at least with apparently storms that are staying intact and are moving in the direction of storm circulation...

will be watching since the radar is better than any satellite we have at the moment to showing what is happening under the canopy in practically realtime

:)
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Quoting 542. GeoffreyWPB:


So Ingrid will not make landfall tomorrow? Or are you in the Texas camp?


It'll make landfall probably tomorrow evening.
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Sloppy looking little storm, again.

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Quoting 526. gulfshoresAL:
You should think about joining. You could learn a thing or two. Don't put down our military....BOY!

And I'm not a boy
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548. beell
Quoting 531. Bluestorm5:
You could have stated your opinion without telling him he's wrong. That's little rude, you think?


I, for one was surprised to hear there were a lot of 10-15,000' mountains between Ingrid and Manuel.
:)
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Quoting 526. gulfshoresAL:
You should think about joining. You could learn a thing or two. Don't put down our military....BOY!

Lol
I'm a Marine if ya didn't know

Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:
18z HWRF simulated GOES infrared satellite for hour 120:


Link please

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Quoting 408. washingtonian115:
More BOC trash coming!.Where is the excitement/originality and suspense this season?.I just haven't been feeling this season at all.It feels redundant.Well I'm off to go do more exciting things than watch the weather in the tropics literally be stuck on replay.
I know what you mean, the weather has been tranquil here along the northeast coast of FL. at around 11am the temperature on our soccer field was 88 degrees with a heat index of 96. I literally got 3 shades darker and have tan lines. It was really miserable out there and I really felt for the players on the field. I'd rather take a thunderstorm any day as opposed to hot sunny weather that if you are not careful could cause a heat stroke. It was that bad everyone was crowding the concession stands just to keep hydrated.
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Quoting 464. Skyepony:
Nearly 500 unaccounted for in the CO floods.
I've seen totals today as high as near 1000, taking into account all the counties involved. Unfortunately the rain seems set to continue until tomorrow, at least, making it difficult to account for quite a number of people isolated by washed out roads and streams that have jumped their banks.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22081

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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