Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

Y'all got this thing figured out yet?


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So far in CO the same 6 people are being given as fatalities that were "identified" on Friday evening. I'm finding it interesting that CNN and others are talking about the count "increasing" when it hasn't changed for 48 hours.

I've not doubt there will be others, but so far it seems most people can hope their loved ones are just stranded somewhere out of reach.
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643. flsky
Quoting 632. BahaHurican:
Rain slows rescue efforts amid deadly Colorado floods

Link

Boulder County has been declared a disaster area for infrastructure and individual assistance. I understand now, that 12 other counties are being considered. I might be spending Halloween in CO.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2200
Ingrid looks like its trying to tighten up in the center.
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Gnite all... big day blogging here
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Ingrid is being beat up by a tropical depression.....this is absolutely hilarious.
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Quoting 628. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The wind shear has not abated at all like it was forecast to by the global models and National Hurricane Center. If anything, it appears to have increased just a little. With Ingrid speeding up now and turning west-northwestward, expect landfall in the morning as a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

Without Manuel, this would have likely been a powerful major hurricane.
Manuel really save Mexico,Manuel hurt her more than helping her.I believe Ingrid was small to hurt Manuel like he hurt her.
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Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I still think we can get up to 15 named storms, but I was going with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors, so I might bust in that department. Still I would keep eyes to the south of us, especially when we get into October. You know what would be ironic is if we broke the major hurricane drought on the US. with a storm hitting in the same spot as Wilma did or near to that spot.


Definitely Caleb. I think we will have no problem getting to 15 named storms. If Florida does get a hurricane this year, I have no doubt it will be from the NW Caribbean (FL Peninsula) and from the Caribbean or Southern Gulf if hitting the FL Panhandle.
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HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME.
AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987
MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989
MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850
MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT...
WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS.

AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.

A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE
SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL
TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME
OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 23.1N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Not sure how the NHC gets 989mb when the last 4 center fixes have been 990, 990, 991, 992...
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6
HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.
THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 104.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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Rain slows rescue efforts amid deadly Colorado floods

Link
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
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For those interested Im running a blog on Ingrid, trying to keep it updated with the latest information from NHC and CONAGUA

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Quoting 621. GatorWX:
GFS at 180 hrs.



That a heck of a low sw of AK. CMC, GFS and euro ensembles show this as well. The operational euro is weaker however and shows high pressure over the plains.


wow...look at those gradients!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
The wind shear has not abated at all like it was forecast to by the global models and National Hurricane Center. If anything, it appears to have increased just a little. With Ingrid speeding up now and turning west-northwestward, expect landfall in the morning as a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

Without Manuel, this would have likely been a powerful major hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34083
Manuel downgraded to a tropical depression. Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
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Quoting 618. RTLSNK:


Wow! Ingrid looks a lot closer to Texas than I realized!
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625. Relix
Seems CV season has officially shut down heh?
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624. beell
Quoting 623. Abacosurf:
Looks like landfall within 6 hours at this rate.


Maybe a little longer. Still about 100 miles off the beach. Rough approximation between the current and previous fix yields about 10 knots.

Seems to be a hurricane in the northern semicircle. But a very small radius of CAT1 winds.
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Quoting 620. beell:


Ingrid's recon center fix is located near the southern perimeter of the eye-like radar return on KBRO radar. At about the six five o'clock position.

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 1:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°02'N 96°21'W (23.0333N 96.35W)

Looks like landfall within 6 hours at this rate.
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Quoting 601. CaribBoy:


He is sheared, not sexy enough for the contest lol


IM starting a rain fund for CaribBoy....Cash,Checks excepted......we will bribe the rain gods!
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GFS at 180 hrs.



That a heck of a low sw of AK. CMC, GFS and euro ensembles show this as well. The operational euro is weaker however and shows high pressure over the plains.
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620. beell


Ingrid's recon center fix is located near the southern perimeter of the eye-like radar return on KBRO radar. At about the six five o'clock position.

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 1:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2302'N 9621'W (23.0333N 96.35W)

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Ingrid is done for.

NEXT
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Quoting 610. MiamiHurricanes09:
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.

Agree, even though I haven't lost power. This morning it was also very intense. They issued a severe thunderstorm warning and flood watch for northeastern Miami-Dade County earlier today.
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Quoting 606. yqt1001:


I believe he mean the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
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Quoting 610. MiamiHurricanes09:
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.


STRANGE! I see no deep convection over miami right now.
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Thousands of residents in Lake Worth have been without power for several hours on Sunday evening.
Utility crews are feverishly working to restore power, and 5,000 customers still remain without power in the south and central parts of the city, said Michael Bornstein, City Manager of Lake Worth.
The major power outage affected 16,000 customers and was caused by a lightning strike that hit a transformer, Bornstein said.
Power lines are expected to be restored by midnight on Sunday, said Bornstein.



Quoting 610. MiamiHurricanes09:
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.
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Quoting 465. Tazmanian:
Crownpoint dam expected to break


According to law enforcement, a dam in Crownpoint is expected to break sometime between 6:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. on Sunday evening.

When the dam fails a flash flood is expected to impact low laying areas of Crownpoint.

This area includes the Indian Health Service Hospital.

An evacuation is in progress and people in the area should seek higher ground immediately



Link



back too lurking


From KRQE

CROWNPOINT, N.M. (KRQE) - Navajo police have asked the National Weather Service to retract statements that the Crownpoint dam is expected to break.

On Sunday the NWS issued an alert citing law enforcement officials that the failure of the dam was “imminent” going on to say it would break between 6:30 and 8:30 p.m.

While Navajo police do say there are concerns about an earthen dam, crews have built a spillway to relieve pressure and have water pumps going.



Capt. Steven Nelson with Navajo Police goes on to say that the dam could fail if more storms come through. That dam is located about half a mile out of town.

The alert issued by the National Weather Service indicated that when the dam broke, a flash flood would impact the low laying areas of Crownpoint, including the Indian Health Service Hospital.

Nelson said employees who live north of the dam are being asked to seek higher ground – but not being evacuated.

In response to Navajo Police, Kerry Jones with the National Weather Service issued the following statement:

“It’s a fluid situation. The State EOC Director is checking with the State Engineer to gauge the amount of water that is potentially dammed.”
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Quoting 609. FunnelVortex:


I mean the 2013 Humberto...


That's Utor...
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Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.
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Quoting 606. yqt1001:




I mean the 2013 Humberto...
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
And the FIM 7 and FIM 8!
Quoting 600. GatorWX:
GFS - 204 hrs.



ECMWF 216 hrs.

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Quoting 599. CaribBoy:


Lol the way he is looking right now... well....................


He still has a pretty swirl, and he is looking a lot better now than he did earlier. Convection is going off over the center again.

I expect him to become something pretty again sometime soon.

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
Quoting 596. FunnelVortex:


The only contestant so far is Humberto.


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For the 1 000 000 000 000th time this year : BoOoOoORRRRRRIIIIIIIINNNNGGGG.

Lol.
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604. beell
Macho Grande
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Ingrid is weakening
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Quoting 580. Hurricanes101:
Now I know this blog has lost it when they start yelling at the storms

No, yelling at clouds is what all the normal people do....
XD
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Quoting 594. FunnelVortex:
Humberto looking good.



He is sheared, not sexy enough for the contest lol
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GFS - 204 hrs.



ECMWF 216 hrs.

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Quoting 596. FunnelVortex:


The only contestant so far is Humberto.


Lol the way he is looking right now... well....................
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The SSTs are extremely WARM.... and NOTHING IS EVEN ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC!!!!

WHAT A PITY!!
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Quoting 462. Badmonkey82009:


I'll never be over macho grande


Just saw this!
Bahahahahhaa!
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Quoting 593. CaribBoy:
I'm sorry INGRID, you're not selected for the 2013 SUPERMODEL CONTEST.


The only contestant so far is Humberto.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2905
Quoting 577. GatorWX:
Gosh, there's a lot going on!



Looks like that convective band from Manuel heading N towards Ingrid is gonna bump her a little N. We still have center reloc concerns with Ingrid at this point.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3383

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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