Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GatorWX:


I didn't imply the llc wasn't heading west.

Sorry, Gator, that last paragrapgh wasn't meant for you. It was for the folks who hear "storm" + "BOC" = "Giant Hurricane". There actually seemed to some people here that were miffed that, since Ingrid became a hurricane, it was supposed to rocket off into the Gulf and flatten Galveston. :-) Seemed like a good time to remind some newbies that the the BOC doesn't usually work like that.
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Quoting reedzone:


After what this season has brung? I have no clue.. Typing from my phone here. I lurk here everyday and sad to see Grother leave. He has contributed alot to this blog over the past couple years. Hope everything is ok with him in the real world. Glad to see ur doing well Moonlight. :)

Hope Grother gets his butt back here...and hope he's doing well.
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CBC is saying there are 21 fatalities - mostly due to Manuel so far.
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Quoting 684. reedzone:
Ingrid is becoming more organized in structure.. even saw a ragged eye like feature appear on IR a few minutes ago. I deff can see her making cat 2 later today now that Manuel has weakened. Very interesting but also dangerous.

An eye?

The center is located on the western edge of the westernmost convective blob. Still very disorganized with little time to intensify before landfall. Recon showed a slowly rising pressure upon exit.
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Quoting 688. moonlightcowboy:



Where you been, Reed? Sure haven't seen you around much. Good to see you.

That's a mess down there, two systems embedded in a larger monsoonal moisture gyre. I've been optimistic about Ingrid, then I get let down. However, it's still out there, hanging on to cane strength albeit barely, and slowing getting a bit more latitude. What do you think it's ultimately going to do?


After what this season has brung? I have no clue.. Typing from my phone here. I lurk here everyday and sad to see Grother leave. He has contributed alot to this blog over the past couple years. Hope everything is ok with him in the real world. Glad to see ur doing well Moonlight. :)
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Sar. The model explanation wasn't necessary. Fully aware of what CLIPS is. Been following this stuff a few years myself. Just trying to be positive for folks that need some rain.

Yeah, I know. I wish I could be positive using the models, but the models make it look even worse. The only really chance it has is to get some monsoonal flow out of the Gulf of California and have it pick up some of the copious remnants of both storms and move it east. New Mexico actually looks like it has pretty good shot at this, so having the ridge drift a few hundred miles north might be all that's needed for at least south and central Texas.
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Quoting 684. reedzone:
Ingrid is becoming more organized in structure.. even saw a ragged eye like feature appear on IR a few minutes ago. I deff can see her making cat 2 later today now that Manuel has weakened. Very interesting but also dangerous.



Where you been, Reed? Sure haven't seen you around much. Good to see you.

That's a mess down there, two systems embedded in a larger monsoonal moisture gyre. I've been optimistic about Ingrid, then I get let down. However, it's still out there, hanging on to cane strength albeit barely, and slowing getting a bit more latitude. What do you think it's ultimately going to do?
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Quoting 683. sar2401:

Look at the AVN loop here and you can see, right at the very last frames, a definite turn to the west. You can also see that organization is decreasing and the blow-off to the north is shrinking. I think Ingrid has finally run out of energy to fight the shear and the ridge any longer, and the turn to the west will become very clear over the next several hours.

This is now the fifth system in the BOC that has been unable to break away from the shore. With Fernand, I kept hearing that it was "this" close to becoming a hurricane before it went ashore, as if that made some kind of difference. Now we have a cat 1 hurricane and, except for making it a little further north, the results will be exactly the same - keel over and head west. The BOC is not a magical place, and storms that form in it are both blessed and cursed. Weak systems, like those we've had this year, get trapped by the topography, deep, cold water, and the usual ridge that's in place to the north. If a storm enters the BOC as a deep, well organized system and can start moving north and then east very quickly, and intensify quickly, it can then get slingshoted out into the Gulf. These are the dangerous BOC storms. The vast majority are going to be like the ones we've already seen, who either arrive as infants, are born in the BOC, and then are doomed to die in the BOC. This is going to continue this year until we get a strong system in the NW Caribbean or the Texas Ridge breaks down.


I didn't imply the llc wasn't heading west.
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Weird... 00z GFS no longer shows Humberto becoming a hurricane again, which it has been for the last several runs. Heck, it doesn't even show it becoming a decent tropical storm anymore.
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Wasn't Ingrid already supposed to have made landfall according to NHC and modeling forecasts?
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Ingrid is becoming more organized in structure.. even saw a ragged eye like feature appear on IR a few minutes ago. I deff can see her making cat 2 later today now that Manuel has weakened. Very interesting but also dangerous.
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Quoting GatorWX:
idk either at this point. Need some more sat frames. Flash loop is one frame longer. Looked, on gif, like convection is/was wrapping further e. I'm not sure that's the case after looking at flash though.



Leaving ealry tomorrow, so trying to get my "fix", lol.

Look at the AVN loop here and you can see, right at the very last frames, a definite turn to the west. You can also see that organization is decreasing and the blow-off to the north is shrinking. I think Ingrid has finally run out of energy to fight the shear and the ridge any longer, and the turn to the west will become very clear over the next several hours.

This is now the fifth system in the BOC that has been unable to break away from the shore. With Fernand, I kept hearing that it was "this" close to becoming a hurricane before it went ashore, as if that made some kind of difference. Now we have a cat 1 hurricane and, except for making it a little further north, the results will be exactly the same - keel over and head west. The BOC is not a magical place, and storms that form in it are both blessed and cursed. Weak systems, like those we've had this year, get trapped by the topography, deep, cold water, and the usual ridge that's in place to the north. If a storm enters the BOC as a deep, well organized system and can start moving north and then east very quickly, and intensify quickly, it can then get slingshoted out into the Gulf. These are the dangerous BOC storms. The vast majority are going to be like the ones we've already seen, who either arrive as infants, are born in the BOC, and then are doomed to die in the BOC. This is going to continue this year until we get a strong system in the NW Caribbean or the Texas Ridge breaks down.
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Quoting 622. HurricaneHunterJoe:


IM starting a rain fund for CaribBoy....Cash,Checks excepted......we will bribe the rain gods!


LOL I want some rain more than ever!!
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681. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
have quite the possibilities of cyclones in the western Pacific..



Sea East Of The Philippines TD 22 (99W)



South China Sea 90W



East Of Marianas Island
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680. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
12:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.5N 132.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 131.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
And there is another Fernand, tropical depression, an Ingrid for old Good Mexico on the making for next week; we can remember this season as the Bay of Campeche Mexican's Storms and weak hurricanes,which unfortunately are causing lots of damages and lives...

Indeed, but certainly not as bad as it could have been. Most of the rain has been very beneficial to Mexico's tropical crops farmers. like mangoes and vanilla. It's the first good season they've had in years. The Mexican poor that live in the hills seem to always suffer even from a normal rainstorm, so at least the rain is also doing some good.
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idk either at this point. Need some more sat frames. Flash loop is one frame longer. Looked, on gif, like convection is/was wrapping further e. I'm not sure that's the case after looking at flash though.



Leaving ealry tomorrow, so trying to get my "fix", lol.
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Quoting 670. GatorWX:
Anyone else thinking.....? : /



center relocation?
Member Since: January 13, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
BRB...There's some convection out there for sure.



Last three hours


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Quoting 671. AussieStorm:


Manuel looks huge beside Ingrid


As beell stated, think of this all as one system, extending from Manuel up to ingrid and back e into the nwcarib. I'm pretty sure this is still essentially true.
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Quoting 670. GatorWX:
Anyone else thinking.....? : /



No, my brain stopped working at about five o'clock Friday and isn't scheduled to reboot until after a couple cups of coffee in the morning at about 8:00. ;)

What you seein'? I'll vote for it. ;)
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#659: BBC is saying:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-240 98184
19 fatalities in total but it reads like maybe 13 died in previous rain events.
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Still out, darn!

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Quoting GatorWX:
Manuel has been a big hindrance today regarding shear. It is however sending a good deal of moisture ne as well.



Manuel looks huge beside Ingrid
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Anyone else thinking.....? : /

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Manuel has been a big hindrance today regarding shear. It is however sending a good deal of moisture ne.

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That ULL wants to destroy Humberto

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Quoting 665. sar2401:

Well, CLIPS is just climatology, not a model. That BAMD does very well on deep and well organized tropical storms, which, unfortunately, Ingrid ain't. The LBAR is an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations and techniques (different from the BAM), including an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom, that predict the evolution of tropical storms. It's moderately useful for storms in the formative stages but not very good on storms that have already come ashore. There's a reason why those three are outliers. I wish I could be more optimistic for Texas, but whatever south Texas can pickup between now and tomorrow afternoon is likely to be it, :-(



Thanks, Sar. The model explanation wasn't necessary. Fully aware of what CLIPS is. Been following this stuff a few years myself. Just trying to be positive for folks that need some rain.
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666. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
12:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Saitama Prefecture

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 36.1N 139.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 49.3N 153.6E - Extratropical Low In Kurils Water
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
I know she's getting closer to the beach, but still edging ever so much closer to TX. LBAR and BAMD bringing what's left of it back over TX. Maybe off the right side, off this kind of loop, it'll generate some much needed precip for TX. We can hope for them. :)



Well, CLIPS is just climatology, not a model. That BAMD does very well on deep and well organized tropical storms, which, unfortunately, Ingrid ain't. The LBAR is an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations and techniques (different from the BAM), including an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom, that predict the evolution of tropical storms. It's moderately useful for storms in the formative stages but not very good on storms that have already come ashore. There's a reason why those three are outliers. I wish I could be more optimistic for Texas, but whatever south Texas can pickup between now and tomorrow afternoon is likely to be it, :-(
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Pretty lackluster radar presentation. Ingrid is a tricky little thing to watch!



and then there's the jsl and ir2...


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Quoting 659. AussieStorm:


News channels like to make disaster news seem worse by not telling the truth. I'm surprised the different news channels aren't giving different counts like they did after the Moore Tornado.
The Moore tornado was a bit different, I think, because there was actually some miscounting going on, as well as mis-reporting of numbers. Here the numbers are not really changing; the officials are being very clear about the meaning of "missing" as unaccounted for rather than as believed to be dead. The media [for some unknown reason] seems to think this situation needs to be hyped....

The Denver Post website has been pretty accurate so far.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Same thing happened to Gabrielle...
Yeap, Gabrielle was beat up by a tropical wave... that came from no where, to save Puerto Rico....
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Quoting 655. GatorWX:


It's gonna rain.

588?



Read it. Sounds good, Gator. Rain. Yup, that's what we want, not so much for MX, but for it to keep creeping northwards and dump some precip on TX. At this point, don't care much how they classify it, just that TX gets some rain (and there's no loss of life).
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Definitely Caleb. I think we will have no problem getting to 15 named storms. If Florida does get a hurricane this year, I have no doubt it will be from the NW Caribbean (FL Peninsula) and from the Caribbean or Southern Gulf if hitting the FL Panhandle.
Don't worry unfortunately for Mexico, all the storms are heading towards them. You could see how all those cold front are diving across Florida, which is telling you that fall hurricane season is blocked for Florida... of course, there is always the possibility of a hybrid system to appear in October and November....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So far in CO the same 6 people are being given as fatalities that were "identified" on Friday evening. I'm finding it interesting that CNN and others are talking about the count "increasing" when it hasn't changed for 48 hours.

I've not doubt there will be others, but so far it seems most people can hope their loved ones are just stranded somewhere out of reach.


News channels like to make disaster news seem worse by not telling the truth. I'm surprised the different news channels aren't giving different counts like they did after the Moore Tornado.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So far in CO the same 6 people are being given as fatalities that were "identified" on Friday evening. I'm finding it interesting that CNN and others are talking about the count "increasing" when it hasn't changed for 48 hours.

I've not doubt there will be others, but so far it seems most people can hope their loved ones are just stranded somewhere out of reach.

The media keep hammering away on the hundreds of "missing", when most of them are simply unaccounted for. These range from college students staring blankly at the "No Signal" message on their cell phone to real backwoods types, who have chosen to live off the beaten path. In the first case, someone will have to lead them to a Red Cross communications center, at which time they'll find out they don't know anyone's phone number without the contacts on their no longer functioning phone. They will then have to be taught how to use something called a "phone book". :-)

In the second case, those folks already live pretty much off the grid and prefer it that way. They are just fine, but parents and friends are worried, so the sheriff's search and rescue team will have to travel (sometimes over long distances and at great peril) to lay eyes on Grizzly Adams to check another name off the list.

Almost everyone else is just lost in the shuffle and will contact one another as communications are restored. We had over 500 reported "missing" after the Oakland Hills Firestorm and it finally turned out we found the remains of 20. Five had already been located before we stated our search, so the total direct death toll was 25. The area struck by the floods in Colorado is not as densely populated as the Oakland Hills, so I would expect the final death toll to be about 12-15.
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0z GFS @ 42 hours:

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Quoting 645. moonlightcowboy:
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

Y'all got this thing figured out yet?




It's gonna rain.

588?
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Also before I go to sleep the is a good amount of spin now visible on grand cayman Belize and canćun radars
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Same thing happened to Gabrielle...
And there is another Fernand, tropical depression, an Ingrid for old Good Mexico on the making for next week; we can remember this season as the Bay of Campeche Mexican's Storms and weak hurricanes,which unfortunately are causing lots of damages and lives...
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For viewing on Monday, the link below is for webcams viewing the salvage operation of the Costa Concordia. Although it is still dark now, they are beginning preparations to pull the ship upright.

http://costaconcordiawebcams.com/

(this will take many hours)
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Both systems in the same floater.


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I know she's getting closer to the beach, but still edging ever so much closer to TX. LBAR and BAMD bringing what's left of it back over TX. Maybe off the right side, off this kind of loop, it'll generate some much needed precip for TX. We can hope for them. :)


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649. flsky
NEARLY 19,000 HOMES DAMAGED, 11,700 PEOPLE EVACUATED

(Not my caps. The above from the online version of the Denver Post - at about 8:30p their time)
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Quoting 640. HurricaneCamille:
Ingrid is being beat up by a tropical depression.....this is absolutely hilarious.
Same thing happened to Gabrielle...
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Anyway guys I'm out see y'all tomorrow
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646. flsky

Gorgeous image.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2011
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

Y'all got this thing figured out yet?


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.