Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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744. TXCWC
Low level center just off shore Link


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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 741. AussieStorm:


But then again, Ingrid is the stronger system so you'd think her outflow would effect Manuel more than Manuel on Ingrid.


Manuel was always the larger of the two systems, since the bulk of the monsoonal gyre that comprised these cyclones was in the east Pacific. It would make sense, then, that Manuel was a negative deterrent even though Ingrid was stronger.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Part of it is, but since it's already inland and decaying, I really don't think all of it is.


But then again, Ingrid is the stronger system so you'd think her outflow would effect Manuel more than Manuel on Ingrid.
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Quoting 737. JLPR2:
Looks like Ingrid is leaving behind its convection, at least at the moment. LLC is easy to spot on the western edge of the convection.



From my blog just now:

An alternate scenario is that continued shear causes Ingrid to weaken to a tropical storm later today.

:D
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The center Is coming out a lil bit better on Brownsville long range radar.
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Quoting 735. HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Miyagi Prefecture

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 38.4N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 51.1N 154.8E - Extratropical Low In Sea of Okhotsk


Rather large diameter of gale force winds, I see. I don't think that's always quite so typical for a high-latitude cyclone making the transition to extratropical.
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737. JLPR2
Looks like Ingrid is leaving behind its convection, at least at the moment. LLC is easy to spot on the western edge of the convection.

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AL, 94, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 266N, 426W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
735. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Miyagi Prefecture

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 38.4N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 51.1N 154.8E - Extratropical Low In Sea of Okhotsk
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Already above tampicos latitude so it's more of la pesca hit imo
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Quoting 731. AussieStorm:


Would the source of the shear be from ex-Manuel?


Part of it is, but since it's already inland and decaying, I really don't think all of it is.
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Ingrid continues to battle with strong westerly shear, but the shear appears to gradually lessen. Slight strengthening is possible before making landfall near Tampico in the next several hours.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting KoritheMan:
I hate these late night blogs where no one's awake to read them.

Here.


Would the source of the shear be from ex-Manuel or just the collision of the 2 systems
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I hate these late night blogs where no one's awake to read them.

Here.
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Manuel is gone.

EP, 13, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1052W, 25, 1002, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 60, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MANUEL, M,
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728. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2013SEP16 054500 3.4 991.1 53.0 3.2 2.9 2.9

Dvorak from satellite service and division's Advance Dvorak website not support hurricane for INGRID
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Ingrid remains at 65 kts in the 06z update.

AL, 10, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 232N, 968W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, D,
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16/0545 UTC 23.2N 96.7W T3.5/3.5 INGRID -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
000
SXUS74 KMEG 160632
RERMKL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
0131 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT JACKSON...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47 DEGREES WAS SET AT JACKSON
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1961.

Link
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Quoting 722. weather12know:


One thing I've noticed is that whenever a system is close by the radar sites in Mexico, that particular site gest taken off line and this sign is seen. I have seen in it several years now.

Center is on the Brownsville radar though. Very visible.
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It's not at 22.6 it's at 23.1 still. Center clearly visible on radar.
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Quoting 672. GatorWX:
Still out, darn!



One thing I've noticed is that whenever a system is close by the radar sites in Mexico, that particular site gest taken off line and this sign is seen. I have seen in it several years now.
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16/0545 UTC 26.5N 42.5W TOO WEAK HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
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El Nino could be what my area needs. I just noticed that the years 1998, 2002 and 2007 which were major floods (1998/2002) and record rainfall year (2007) either had El Nino the same year or the end of the previous year. I know it means a wet and cool winter, but it shows no effect during the spring/summer. It's just something for me to look forward too though. :)
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I would agree mostly entirely except for the part in bold. The fact that Ingrid has managed to keep gaining latitude is indeed indicative of a weaker ridge to its north, and that is what I've maintained for some time now. The western nose of the southeastern conus high has been on the weaker side, only 1008 to about 1012/14mb at times. In addition there's been a front, another weakness stuck in between that and the high pressure further north centered over the Dakotas and extending southwards into Nebraska.




The steering layer clearly shows the front/weakness and the flow. If Ingrid continues to gain some strength, the natural poleward movement inclination should help it get caught up into that flow towards that weakness and landfalling in southeast TX.

Yup, I've been told that's a stretch, lol, but guess what? Ingrid is still over water, and still gaining latitude. ;)

Well, it's still not making it to Texas but, if Ingrid was a 978 hurricane instead of a 987 to 999 mb hurricane, it might have been able to take advantage of those weaknesses. A characteristic of stroms this year has been their relatively high pressures compated to their winds. When you have even a 1010 high, that's a significant barrier against a 999 hurricane. Same thing with the low. The hurricane has to be strong enough to break through the ridge to feel the weakness in the trough. Here we are up to the "I" storm, and the best we've been able to do is Humberto with a 980 mb pressure, which is only average for a cat 1.

Looking at the GOM AVN, it sure looks like Ingrid's time of gaining latitude is over. Looks like it's down from 23.1 to about 22.6.

EDIT: No, in reponse your edit, I don't think the ridge was firm at all. If it was, it would have prevented Ingrid from gaining as much latitude as it has.
What made the ridge look better was the relatively high pressure of Ingrid. If it could have even gotten down to 980, I think it would have had a much better chance to get north and east, into the shallower and warmer waters of the Gulf.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
this look like late October weather here for the USA
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716. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
14:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Fukushima Prefecture

At 5:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 37.4N 140.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Next Hour: 37.9N 141.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Storm) Miyagi Prefecture
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 19 47 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 15 49 38 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 48 69 29 15 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 52 15 2 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 12 2 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 3 2 X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 1 X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 45KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

LA PESCO MX 34 44 32(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
LA PESCO MX 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LA PESCO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

TAMPICO MX 34 10 37(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
TAMPICO MX 50 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
TAMPICO MX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

TUXPAN MX 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
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Quoting 702. sar2401:

Yep, should have made landfall yesterday, but her increase in structure and the shear and ridge to the north, combined to keep her offshore and moving about 100 miles further north than the point yesterday.



E D I T
I don't guess that's disagreeing, depending on whether your interpretation in fact supports the ridge allowing it to come more northwards. Most everyone seems to have maintained that it's been the "firm" ridge that will keep Ingrid from coming more northerly, and with which I have disagreed. We'll see what she does during the day. Anyways, I'm off to hit the hay. Enjoyed it.


I would agree mostly entirely except for the part in bold. The fact that Ingrid has managed to keep gaining latitude is indeed indicative of a weaker ridge to its north, and that is what I've maintained for some time now. The western nose of the southeastern conus high has been on the weaker side, only 1008 to about 1012/14mb at times. In addition there's been a front, another weakness stuck in between that and the high pressure further north centered over the Dakotas and extending southwards into Nebraska.




The steering layer clearly shows the front/weakness and the flow. If Ingrid continues to gain some strength, the natural poleward movement inclination should help it get caught up into that flow towards that weakness and landfalling in southeast TX.

Yup, I've been told that's a stretch, lol, but guess what? Ingrid is still over water, and still gaining latitude. ;)
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
14 years, wow. A homegrown BOC hurricane headed for the US is not at all a common outcome of these systems. I know Opal in 1995 was also one.

Although even Opal was a TD off Cozumel before it crossed the Yucatan and became a TS. Brett is one of the few powerful hurricanes that were born strictly in the BOC, and it went to Texas, which is typical of real BOC storms.
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707. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
13:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Tochigi Prefecture

At 4:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 36.6N 139.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Next Hour: 37.0N 140.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Storm) Fukushima Prefecture
11 HRS: 42.3N 145.7E - Extratropical Low East of Hokkaido
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS IT TURNS
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
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Idk, off to bed. See y'all manana.

Ingrid....my head hurts

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Despite their separation by land, Manuel and Ingrid appear to be one giant system, spinning in synchronicity.

Their dance is making my eyes dizzy ...

Where is all this moisture going? I hope not to Colorado.

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703. DDR
Good morning
we are really taking a beating from the itcz in Trinidad over the past 12 hours,it is currently raining with amounts nearing 3 inches for the said time period.
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Wasn't Ingrid already supposed to have made landfall according to NHC and modeling forecasts?

Yep, should have made landfall yesterday, but her increase in structure and the shear and ridge to the north, combined to keep her offshore and moving about 100 miles further north than the point yesterday. Ingrid was supposed to move slightly NW, then make a hard left yesterday, and make landfall as a TS. Instead, it moved almost north for a while, then NNW, and now appears to be moving west of north, and is still a hurricane, although barely. I suspect that it will be a tropical storm and be off about 125 miles from predicted landfall. I want to see what Skye's site shows as success for both direction and intensity for Ingrid. Since it will probably make landfall as a TS, the intensity models will claim victory, regardless of that little matter about it becoming a hurricane in between. The track models will find some way to show that the general track was correct, but the landfall was off by a hair. I believe both the track and intensity models were horrible for Ingrid, as they have been for almost every storm this season. This makes me really nervous about how wrong they might be when we finally do get a big storm.
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14 years, wow. A homegrown BOC hurricane headed for the US is not at all a common outcome of these systems. I know Opal in 1995 was also one.
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Quoting 686. Ameister12:
Weird... 00z GFS no longer shows Humberto becoming a hurricane again, which it has been for the last several runs. Heck, it doesn't even show it becoming a decent tropical storm anymore.


Well it tries to but it's likely extratropical by this point:


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Quoting 697. HurrMichaelOrl:


On a somewhat related note, when is the last time a system originating in the BOC developed into a hurricane and made a beeline for the US Gulf Coast(anywhere from Key West to Brownsville)?


Hurricane Brett 1999
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Quoting 696. swflurker:
Really? Another ULL in the gulf off SW FL. Can't catch a break on the heavy rain here in the Naples area. Not as bad as Colorado, but if we get any kind of tropical storm, we will be screwed!


What a difference a couple hundred miles makes. We have had below normal rainfall in Orlando lately.
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Quoting 695. sar2401:

Sorry, Gator, that last paragrapgh wasn't meant for you. It was for the folks who hear "storm" + "BOC" = "Giant Hurricane". There actually seemed to some people here that were miffed that, since Ingrid became a hurricane, it was supposed to rocket off into the Gulf and flatten Galveston. :-) Seemed like a good time to remind some newbies that the the BOC doesn't usually work like that.


On a somewhat related note, when is the last time a system originating in the BOC developed into a hurricane and made a beeline for the US Gulf Coast(anywhere from Key West to Brownsville)?
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Really? Another ULL in the gulf off SW FL. Can't catch a break on the heavy rain here in the Naples area. Not as bad as Colorado, but if we get any kind of tropical storm, we will be screwed!
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Quoting GatorWX:


I didn't imply the llc wasn't heading west.

Sorry, Gator, that last paragrapgh wasn't meant for you. It was for the folks who hear "storm" + "BOC" = "Giant Hurricane". There actually seemed to some people here that were miffed that, since Ingrid became a hurricane, it was supposed to rocket off into the Gulf and flatten Galveston. :-) Seemed like a good time to remind some newbies that the the BOC doesn't usually work like that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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