Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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795. VR46L
Quoting 766. meteorite:
looks like south mexico is gonna get hit again later in the week


Actually quite a possibility ... The Ghost of Manu and Ingrid will leave a low pressure trough behind and a poor TW only will need to come along and spark a storm IMO .
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Quoting 789. PensacolaDoug:


Looks to me as if the LLC de-coupled and is making landfall as we speak. The new blow-up is over top of the LLC.


Yea when a cane or storm is so disorganized, its sometimes hard to tell where the LLC actually is...

Ill be back later, maybe 11 ish.
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793. IKE
Not much on either latest GFS or ECMWF.

Day 108 of the season. 75 days to go.

Totals....

9-2-0. Plus a TD.
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From Miami NWS Disco


THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS INTERESTING ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPING. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS TOOK A LOW NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN SATES.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AMPLIFY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MUCH AND LEAVE LOW PRESSURE OR A BROAD
TROUGH HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. IT IS
WAY TOO SOON TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN ONE SCENARIO, BUT IT`S
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THIS PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OR WITHOUT ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
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791. VR46L
Quoting 788. Torito:
Humberto slowly gaining back convection.



Just needs to get his clothes on properly
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Its all your fault Manuel :P
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Quoting 783. VR46L:


Na the actual centre is still a while away from Landfall... but an interesting Blow up just south of the TX Border..



Looks to me as if the LLC de-coupled and is making landfall as we speak. The new blow-up is over top of the LLC.
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Humberto slowly gaining back convection.

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99W: The next storm in the west pacific?
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Everyone have a great Monday!
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
Ingrid isn't as organized as humberto was. :/

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783. VR46L
Quoting 775. redwagon:




Well, *something* has made landfall, but *something* has not yet.


Na the actual centre is still a while away from Landfall... but an interesting Blow up just south of the TX Border..

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Tampa AFD this morning about possible development.


HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND STALLS OUT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. OF NOTE...THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TO DIFFERING DEGREES ALL SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THESE TRENDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14568
the pipeline seems to have other areas of interest too first up the nw carib. gator should finally dry out
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Safe trip Gator!
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Quoting 777. interstatelover7165:
What does this represent?
The regions inside the closed contours are where the individual ensemble members are predicting below 1004 mb surface pressure (or as the chart says, above 1044 mb, which obviously is not the case here) at 180 hrs from when the model ran.
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Morning everyone!

On to the next...



Off to Spain!! I'll post pictures on my blog in a few days if anyone is interested. Keep it real, ; )

Forecast for Barcelona:

Mid 70's/mid 60's, other than Tues @ 40%, no chance of rain. Yeeeah! San Diego-ish. See ya!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3785
Quoting 765. guygee:
Getting some nibbles at 180 hrs from 0Z GEFS:
What does this represent?
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Quoting 762. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm up extra early, couldn't sleep. I really need to de-stress. It's 73 degrees, feels like 77 already, another hot day in the 90's with heat index around 100. No rain in sight, a tease of 20% later in the week, same as always.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, fluffy scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


All I'm having is an English Muffin, and two soft boiled eggs, wtih coffee!
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Quoting 771. beell:


Appreciate the positive thoughts for Texas, MLC. And the BAM's trajectory tracks are consistent with monsoonal moisture flowing north around an eastward retreat of the "much discussed/cussed" ridge. Some folks are probably not familiar with the "ring-of-fire" convection around a ridge of high pressure. Maybe not too fiery, but effective at moisture transport.

In addition, the remains of Ingrid and the monsoon circulation keeps Texas in a long-fetch easterly flow. All that points to better than average chances of rain towards mid-week and into the weekend.

As long as we're wishing, a west-coast trough and subsequent retreat of the ridge would also benefit Colorado. If it does not retreat as much as forecast, some of this moisture could be shunted farther west and north over Colorado.

(and for the record, my landfall prediction was biased to the north a bit as well. "a landfall closer to Brownsville than Tampico"-a fail).




Well, *something* has made landfall, but *something* has not yet.
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Quoting 643. flsky:

Boulder County has been declared a disaster area for infrastructure and individual assistance. I understand now, that 12 other counties are being considered. I might be spending Halloween in CO.


I pray FEMA will help with their threshold of damage!
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772. yoboi
Quoting 750. VR46L:
A dive South?




sure..
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771. beell
Quoting 667. moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Sar. The model explanation wasn't necessary. Fully aware of what CLIPS is. Been following this stuff a few years myself. Just trying to be positive for folks that need some rain.


Appreciate the positive thoughts for Texas, MLC. And the BAM's trajectory tracks are consistent with monsoonal moisture flowing north around an eastward retreat of the "much discussed/cussed" ridge. Some folks are probably not familiar with the "ring-of-fire" convection around a ridge of high pressure. Maybe not too fiery with this one, but effective at moisture transport.

In addition, the remains of Ingrid's moisture and the monsoon circulation keeps Texas in a long-fetch easterly flow. All that points to better than average chances of rain towards mid-week and into the weekend.

As long as we're wishing, a west-coast trough and subsequent retreat of the ridge would also benefit Colorado. If it does not retreat as much as forecast, some of this moisture could be shunted farther west and north over Colorado.

(and for the record, my landfall prediction was biased to the north a bit as well. "a landfall closer to Brownsville than Tampico"-a fail).
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
seems to have a landfaller i was hopefully she glided south back to the boc and spinned down
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up earlier but not much to add good morning
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Quoting 762. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm up extra early, couldn't sleep. I really need to de-stress. It's 73 degrees, feels like 77 already, another hot day in the 90's with heat index around 100. No rain in sight, a tease of 20% later in the week, same as always.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, fluffy scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!



One of everything please!
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Getting some nibbles at 180 hrs from 0Z GEFS:
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm up extra early, couldn't sleep. I really need to de-stress. It's 73 degrees, feels like 77 already, another hot day in the 90's with heat index around 100. No rain in sight, a tease of 20% later in the week, same as always.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, fluffy scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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New burst of convection over the low-level center.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Oh no...ANOTHER MX STORM FORMING IN THE CARIBBEAN?????? Come onnnnnnn! TX needs this! Im getting tired of this. As im sure you all are too.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE
HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
LGEM PREDICTION.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A
LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LATTER FEATURE
TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HWRF MODEL TRACK.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 23.4N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 23.3N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 22.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...CENTER OF INGRID APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 97.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS
AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.

EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

...MANUEL DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
753. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Man-yi is rapidly deteriorating as it passes over Honshu.



yup. not wasting time passing through either. Almost in the Pacific Ocean already.
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752. VR46L
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Man-yi is rapidly deteriorating as it passes over Honshu.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
750. VR46L
A dive South?

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749. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
16:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Iwate Prefecture

At 7:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 39.2N 141.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 38 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Next Hour: 39.7N 142.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Storm) Iwate Prefecture
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
747. VR46L
Looks like the Pocket of dry air coming down from the CONUS has sealed a Mexican Landfall . It was a Close thing . Hope the moisture makes it north to Texas and not Go and dive Back into the Gulf

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746. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 15.6N 113.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.5N 112.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.5N 132.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 130.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.