Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 836. StormTrackerScott:
By the way the GFS & Euro show the same set up for FL. Of course the downcasters are out today the fact of the matter is it is possible that we could see 2 to 3 system form in the Gulf & Caribbean and head NNE or NE toward FL.

NAVGEM


06Z


0Z


Is that gonna end up being one of them tropical gyre thingees?
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844. VR46L
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
Quoting 835. SouthernIllinois:

Morning Joe. :) Up early I see!


Good Morning Natalie! Yes Up way too early! Have to leave in a hour and a half to get to 3 medical appointments at the V.A. Medical Center in La Jolla,CA....82 miles from me home in the boonies.
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Cooler waters mean less latent heat storms can take advantage of. Weaker storms are better. Less destruction potential!
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Quoting 838. Wunderwood:



Please show some evidence of what you are stating. The Gulf and Caribbean waters still appear to be more than warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.

Oh they are still more than warm enough. I never said that they weren't. I just said that they are cooling off now. That makes me happy.
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I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.
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In order for Fall to arrive in FL we have to release some of this Latent Heat across the Gulf & Caribbean which could take another 6 to 8 weeks to complete.

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Quoting 827. SouthernIllinois:
Other than Ingrid, the tropics in the Atlantic Basin are VERY quiet. Love this. And the SST and TCHP are beginning to cool off now. They will continue to level off. This is great news!!



Please show some evidence of what you are stating. The Gulf and Caribbean waters still appear to be more than warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.
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test
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By the way the GFS & Euro show the same set up for FL. Of course the downcasters are out today the fact of the matter is it is possible that we could see 2 to 3 system form in the Gulf & Caribbean and head NNE or NE toward FL.

NAVGEM


06Z


0Z
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Quoting 833. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning Class!

Morning Joe. :) Up early I see!
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Quoting 831. StormTrackerScott:
Some models are showing 20 plus inches of rain across FL. Something to watch as the are the NHC is watching in the NW Caribbean is forecast to move into the SW Gulf then ride NE very slowly toward FL.

GGEM


I'm very jealous Scott!!!
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Good Morning Class!
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SUPER HAPPY this morning. Some showers are migrating into the region here. Yes, they are light, but it is something! :)

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Some models are showing 20 plus inches of rain across FL. Something to watch as the are the NHC is watching in the NW Caribbean is forecast to move into the SW Gulf then ride NE very slowly toward FL.

GGEM

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830. IKE

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
1994 had no Majors in the Atl.
Strongest was Florence 110mph.
We went 7/3/0 that year.
Thanks.
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829. IKE

Quoting beell:


Thought last night's 10PM CDT discussion was a little jacked up regarding landfall.

HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

lol.....oops!
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1994 had no Majors in the Atl.
Strongest was Florence 110mph.
We went 7/3/0 that year.
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Other than Ingrid, the tropics in the Atlantic Basin are VERY quiet. Love this. And the SST and TCHP are beginning to cool off now. They will continue to level off. This is great news!!
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Quoting 824. JrWeathermanFL:
Ingrid won't do this, I was just thinking...
Has there ever been a storm to make landfall and turn ang go back out to sea?


yes
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825. beell
Quoting 820. IKE:
I didn't know they had downgraded it...oh my......season is a busters will be out in full force today...so much for Bastardi's thoughts of it being a cat 2 or 3. Think he said at landfall too.

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...


7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 16

Location: 23.8N 97.8W

Moving: WNW at 10 mph

Min pressure: 991 mb

Max sustained: 65 mph



Thought last night's 10PM CDT discussion was a little jacked up regarding landfall.

HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16862
Ingrid won't do this, I was just thinking...
Has there ever been a storm to make landfall and turn ang go back out to sea?
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Thanks for the link to the storm hitting Japan.

P.S. how do you make boston cream pie pancakes?
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822. IKE

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I consider a 13/6/2 year to be normal. That's just my opinion. Only 4/4/2 left :P
I wonder when the last season was without a major hurricane in the ATL? I think it will happen though.
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I consider a 13/6/2 year to be normal. That's just my opinion. Only 4/4/2 left :P
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820. IKE
I didn't know they had downgraded it...oh my......season is a busters will be out in full force today...so much for Bastardi's thoughts of it being a cat 2 or 3. Think he said at landfall too.

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...


7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 16

Location: 23.8°N 97.8°W

Moving: WNW at 10 mph

Min pressure: 991 mb

Max sustained: 65 mph

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818. IKE
"It made landfall? As it TS???????"


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Good Morning/Evening.

Halfway through the season, halfway through my TS prediction number.

Ha ha funnel!
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Quoting 813. PensacolaDoug:



Ya mean Ingrid. But yeah.


OMG... I must have traveled in time lol... Please bear with me It's Monday morning :(
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What a bust of a storm...

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Quoting 811. CaneHunter031472:


I guess this will be ground for debate in the comming days. One thing is for sure. Irene took a serious beating from Manuel. I think an investigation preceded by a restraining order is appropiate here.



Ya mean Ingrid. But yeah.
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Quoting 810. PensacolaDoug:

I wonder what's next??




Tune in,next week...Same Bat time, Same Bat channel!


Same lame hurricane bat season... zzzzzz .....
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Quoting 805. JrWeathermanFL:
So was she technically a hurricane or TS at landfall?


I guess this will be ground for debate in the comming days. One thing is for sure. Ingrid took a serious beating from Manuel. I think an investigation preceded by a restraining order is appropiate here.
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I wonder what's next??






Tune in next week...Same Bat time, Same Bat channel!
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Quoting 807. GatorWX:
One last thing before I head out, weird! Has that two systems look like yesterday.

I wonder what's next??



Happy Blogging!


Oh com'on man. Take your smartphone with you like I do lol. You can't be away a single second on this historic season. You might miss the next big thing. Anyway be safe and have a great day Gator...
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ir shows extremely heavy rainfall ass/ with the coc
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4864
One last thing before I head out, weird! Has that two systems look like yesterday.

I wonder what's next??



Happy Blogging!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 805. JrWeathermanFL:
So was she technically a hurricane or TS at landfall?


I'm thinking TS. I've been wrong before however.
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So was she technically a hurricane or TS at landfall?
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99W in the WPAC has the aid of an upper anti-cyclone



JMA already have it as a TD and it is expected to strengthen quite quickly via the models. So will definitely be the next storm of interest once Ingrid has made landfall/dissipated.

Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 973
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Good morning. I guess Ingrid is making landfall as we speak. Seems to have been struggling with shear as well. The good news is that on radar it appear that Ingridis bringing a few rains to Texas where rain is really needed.
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801. IKE
I would say it's made landfall....


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Quoting 796. VR46L:


Really ?

Shrug ..I guess she will be on land by time VIS or RGB are available
Can be seen on Brownsville radar.
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Ingrid's coming ashore
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8121
798. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT..
.OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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I hope MX isnt hit again...once again...TX needs the rain. A stray afternoon scattered shower isnt gonna cut it.
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796. VR46L
Quoting 789. PensacolaDoug:


Looks to me as if the LLC de-coupled and is making landfall as we speak. The new blow-up is over top of the LLC.


Really ?

Shrug ..I guess she will be on land by time VIS or RGB are available
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6950
795. VR46L
Quoting 766. meteorite:
looks like south mexico is gonna get hit again later in the week


Actually quite a possibility ... The Ghost of Manu and Ingrid will leave a low pressure trough behind and a poor TW only will need to come along and spark a storm IMO .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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