Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 889. Wunderwood:



Yeah I agree especially now since all the models develope atleast an area of weak low pressure in the Gulf. Also the models are indicating several lows forming in the Gulf & Caribbean and riding NE over FL and the NW Bahamas. Fact of the matter is a very active pattern is setting up for FL one which could create a very dangerous flood threat down the road.
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Quoting 872. luvtogolf:


Keep your sermons for Sunday morning mass please.
richard noggon...that was just rude.....
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What a mess!
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Quoting 886. pcola57:
Interesting Water Vapor across the Atlantic this am..

That wave east of the leseer antilles reminds me of Matthew of 2010.
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Quoting 888. hydrus:
Good morning Big Daddy Cool..


Top o' the morning to you hydrus, how are things in your neck of the woods?
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Quoting 885. redwagon:


A good Ascat sure would be helpful about now to help us figure out what we're looking at.....
Indeed. October will be interesting.
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Quoting 851. MississippiWx:


The Gulf/SW Atlantic will be far from being favorable for tropical development during that time period. An upper level trough should dominate the area during this time period, bringing very unfavorable upper level conditions.


MississippiWx, Euro does develop a TS east of the Bahamas by Saturday, takes it NE and toward eastern Newfoundland by next Tuesday as an extratropical storm. However, the Euro continues to indicate moisture and lower pressure in the Gulf and NW Caribbean in its wake. I'm not ready to take your bold statement as gospel.
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Quoting 880. daddyjames:
G'morning from Central OK,

Here its grey and rumbling outside, with a good chance of getting some wet stuff as the front pushes through. Gives us a temporary respite from the above average temps, as the heat returns a little later this week, then followed by another chance of rain towards the weekend.

Ingrid has wandered onshore at La Pesca, and is expected to dump more rain in the region. :(

Folks in Southern Texas got a little bit which is nice to see. Even nicer is seeing CO drying out after the deluge. :)

Manuel, at least what's left of him, is surfing the waves and promising to continue pumping moisture into NW Mexico for the rest of the week. Hopefully not too much for Mexico, and a bit more for Texas.

Estimated rainfall, last 24 hours from "los gemelos mal"


Good morning Big Daddy Cool..
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After only 1.5 inches of rain in the 16 months from the March 2012 hailstorm and August 1, 2013, the lower RGV of Texas has had (generally)4 or 5 inches since August 1st from these series of tropical rains.

We're forecast to get up to 2 more inches in the next 24 hours, with locally as much as 5 inches?

Very grateful for these rains. We needed the deep moisture. Unfortunately, we still need a lot of precip into our lakes upstream (Falcon and Amistad) and that has to fall into an area N and W of Del Rio to get into those reservoirs. Many, many farmers in South Texas have absolutely ZERO water allocated for 2013-14 crop production. I'm one of those.

The area of Tamualipas State that is getting pounded in Mexico produces a huge % of the hot peppers that are exported to the US from now until January/Feb. Then, up to a hundred loads/day of onions from mid-January to April. Those crops will be affected, obviously, but the lakes in those areas (roughly bounded by Tampico to Mante to Zaragoza) needed to be filled in a bad way. Long term, this big rain event will be very beneficial (on average) to that area's producers. Obviously there will be some unfortunate exceptions.
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Interesting Water Vapor across the Atlantic this am..

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Quoting 868. hydrus:
It looks like its on fire..:)

It really looks bad for the folks in Mexico..My prayers to them, as I know all to well what its like to be flooded out..


A good Ascat sure would be helpful about now to help us figure out what we're looking at.....
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Well, hopefully we can get "some" rain (albiet not 10+ inches like the GEM is indicating) over the next few weeks here in coastal Brevard County. I think some of us in Melbourne are roughly at 30% of their normal rainfall for the wet season thus far. Parts of south Florida have been, in general, pretty dry as well?
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Quoting 840. Neapolitan:
I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.



Very well said, Neo.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
Quoting 863. DDR:
Good morning
almost 4 inches here in Trinidad the past 24 hours,bringing my total rainfall to 11 inches for September so far with plenty more on the way.


Don't tell CaribBoy...it may break his heart
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
881. VR46L
Quoting 864. superpete:
T wave approaching 55 W with a decent amount of convection.Certainly a low-rider with a possibility to watch down the road.Conditions dont look that good for development, until it passes 70 west

CaribBoy - Should miss you by a good margin



Shhh .. If he thinks there is a possibility he is not so grumpy ... If no possibility He gets Very grumpy....

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G'morning from Central OK,

Here its grey and rumbling outside, with a good chance of getting some wet stuff as the front pushes through. Gives us a temporary respite from the above average temps, as the heat returns a little later this week, then followed by another chance of rain towards the weekend.

Ingrid has wandered onshore at La Pesca, and is expected to dump more rain in the region. :(

Folks in Southern Texas got a little bit which is nice to see. Even nicer is seeing CO drying out after the deluge. :)

Manuel, at least what's left of him, is surfing the waves and promising to continue pumping moisture into NW Mexico for the rest of the week. Hopefully not too much for Mexico, and a bit more for Texas.

Estimated rainfall, last 24 hours from "los gemelos mal"


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Quoting 874. ihave27windows:


Yes, messy!
But what will the blob moving away from the other blob do?


We need Grothar to answer that question... :/
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878. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODETTE
5:00 PM PhST September 16 2013
=================================================

The Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of Casiguran has developed into a tropical depression and was named "ODETTE"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Odette (1004 hPa) located at 17.2N 132.1E or 930 km east of Casiguran has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5- 0 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "ODETTE" will not yet affect any part of the country. However, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila, central Luzon, CALABARZON, and Occidental Mindoro.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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877. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Storm Warning
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC MAN-YI (T1318)
21:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

East of Hokkaido Prefecture

At 12:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Man-yi (980 hPa) located at 42.0N 145.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The low is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center in east quadrant
300 NM from the center in west quadrant

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
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876. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
21:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.2N 112.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.4N 112.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
21:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 131.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 130.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
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Quoting 868. hydrus:
It looks like its on fire..:)

It really looks bad for the folks in Mexico..My prayers to them, as I know all to well what its like to be flooded out..


I believe that TX will get some rain from the remnants of this system though, which is a good thing. And yes, I wish all of the people affected by this storm well.
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Quoting 871. VR46L:
What a messy Gal!!!



Yes, messy!
But what will the blob moving away from the other blob do?
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14893
Puerto vallarta now
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Quoting 840. Neapolitan:
I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.


Keep your sermons for Sunday morning mass please.
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871. VR46L
What a messy Gal!!!

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Quoting 857. bryanfromkyleTX:
Is that second piece of energy SE of Ingrid the entity models picked up on saying we need to look out for??


This is my question as well.....
Beell?
Beell?
Anyone?
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14893


Tampico, right now. webcam
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Quoting 788. Torito:
Humberto slowly gaining back convection.

It looks like its on fire..:)

It really looks bad for the folks in Mexico..My prayers to them, as I know all to well what its like to be flooded out..
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However, humberto still has this dry air to deal with.

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Quoting 856. Hhunter:
30-35 miles


Hope they get some free water
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
Humberto still gaining convection, even though it is doing so slowly.

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T wave approaching 55 W with a decent amount of convection.Certainly a low-rider with a possibility to watch down the road.Conditions dont look that good for development, until it passes 70 west

CaribBoy - Should miss you by a good margin

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863. DDR
Good morning
almost 4 inches here in Trinidad the past 24 hours,bringing my total rainfall to 11 inches for September so far with plenty more on the way.
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IMO, the LLC of ingrid is right between the original part and the new burst of convection to the north of it, so about 97,22.5....
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Good Morning All-
Seeing some comments pop up regarding some model support for possible activity in the Gulf in the next week or so that may impact FL - can anyone share? Are we talking West Coast (SWFL)?
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Quoting 848. JrWeathermanFL:
I'm actually thankful that neither storm made landfall as a hurricane (Ingrid and Manuel) for Mexico's sake.

If one of the two weren't there, Ingrid or Manuel would have been much stronger. For instance, if Manuel was never there, we might be looking at a major making landfall this morning.
I believe Manuel was a hurricane at landfall.
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STILL BORING.
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From this morning's Area Forecast Discussion, Miami NWS office. Something to watch...

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS INTERESTING ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPING. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS TOOK A LOW NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN SATES.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AMPLIFY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MUCH AND LEAVE LOW PRESSURE OR A BROAD
TROUGH HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK
. IT IS
WAY TOO SOON TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN ONE SCENARIO, BUT IT`S
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THIS PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OR WITHOUT ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.


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Is that second piece of energy SE of Ingrid the entity models picked up on saying we need to look out for??
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Quoting 849. HurricaneHunterJoe:


At least a little rain in S Texas! How inland is Harlingen TX? They grow a lot of fruit there.
30-35 miles
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Spawn of Ingrid heading southwest. Might this loop around and head back into gulf. There is modeling support for tropical troubles in both Florida and central to north central texas coast in the 6-10
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I'm anxious to see what's going to happen up here in Jacksonville, as I hear things might be coming in this general direction from the Gulf the next week or so.. Should be interesting to see what happens!!
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Quoting 839. StormTrackerScott:
In order for Fall to arrive in FL we have to release some of this Latent Heat across the Gulf & Caribbean which could take another 6 to 8 weeks to complete.

Or it will take one strong hurricane coming out of the Gulf. In 2005, fall started in Florida with the passage of Wilma. I remember it went from the 90s with high humidity to the mid 60s in a matter of hours as the hurricane drew in dry air from the continent.
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852. VR46L
Quoting 840. Neapolitan:
I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.


Who's Heart would not bleed with the images out of Mexico over the last 24 hrs .

But how many lives will Manuel/ ingrid save as long as some of their moisture gets North to Texas ... Afterall Drought is the bigger killer in the long term..
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Quoting 839. StormTrackerScott:
In order for Fall to arrive in FL we have to release some of this Latent Heat across the Gulf & Caribbean which could take another 6 to 8 weeks to complete.



The Gulf/SW Atlantic will be far from being favorable for tropical development during that time period. An upper level trough should dominate the area during this time period, bringing very unfavorable upper level conditions.





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SouthernIllinois, I just checked and sea surface temps in the Gulf and Caribbean are at 85 degrees and higher. No evidence of cooling at this time.
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Quoting 844. VR46L:


At least a little rain in S Texas! How inland is Harlingen TX? They grow a lot of fruit there.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570
I'm actually thankful that neither storm made landfall as a hurricane (Ingrid and Manuel) for Mexico's sake.

If one of the two weren't there, Ingrid or Manuel would have been much stronger. For instance, if Manuel was never there, we might be looking at a major making landfall this morning.
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 8 Comments: 1634
847. VR46L
Quoting 846. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like Levi nailed that landfall point if me memory serves me.


Levi is very Good !
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Quoting 844. VR46L:


Looks like Levi nailed that landfall point if me memory serves me.
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Quoting 836. StormTrackerScott:
By the way the GFS & Euro show the same set up for FL. Of course the downcasters are out today the fact of the matter is it is possible that we could see 2 to 3 system form in the Gulf & Caribbean and head NNE or NE toward FL.

NAVGEM


06Z


0Z


Is that gonna end up being one of them tropical gyre thingees?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4570

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.