Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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I just got back from my adventure with my family I haven't seen in a month around Western NC. I'll have a blog up about rock climbing 2 weekend ago and this weekend's adventure to Dupont State Forest, Pisgah National Forest, and Blue Ridge Parkway! I'm on Ultimate Frisbee team here and we are playing App State at 4 pm so I should have my blog up about 9 or 10 pm.
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Quoting 82. moonlightcowboy:
Wherever there is injustice, you will find us.
Wherever there is suffering, we'll be there!
Wherever liberty is threatened, you will find...

CLICK ON THE PHOTO



Lol....All three of them were on the Sat Night Live re-run last night.................
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Clean

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Quoting 62. sar2401:

Yeah, lots of CAPE but almost instability and very little in the way of a forcing mechanism means we don't even rate a mention in the SPC this morning.


Lots of fuel in the area. Offshore warnings issued for waters S.W. Fl.
Could be very stormy off the S.W. coast today.
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Quoting 87. hurricanes2018:
maybe both hurricanes will come together

I hope not.

I shudder to think of how Ingrid and the rest of Mexico and Deep South Texas would look.
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Humberto could easily intensify into a major hurricane before an extratropical transition. It will be dwelling in the north Atlantic for another 5 days or so with environmental conditions becoming increasingly favorable.

12z GFS; 126 hours.

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All that energy in the E-Pac/BOC/Western Caribbean is in such close proximity, that I am thinking that we will have to wait to see what happens with Ingrid (when She gets out of the way) before seeing what happens with the energy in the Western Caribbean, if anything.

All Atlantic eyes on Ingrid at the moment and it will be interesting to see how She does between now and tomorrow.

Have a Great Day at See Yall in the AM tomorrow....WW.
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maybe both hurricanes will come together
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Quoting 62. sar2401:

Yeah, lots of CAPE but almost instability and very little in the way of a forcing mechanism means we don't even rate a mention in the SPC this morning.


What are types of forcing mechanism's are needed to take advantage of high CAPE levels?

EDITED
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5234
They've given EX-Humberto an Invest #--94L. I think that's dumb, should just refer to it as EX-Humberto and state it might re-develop.
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Quoting 79. sunlinepr:


Manuels not looking too hot herself
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Man-Yi 85mph gusts over Fukushima.... ugly... Hope it keeps as a storm...

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Wherever there is injustice, you will find us.
Wherever there is suffering, we'll be there!
Wherever liberty is threatened, you will find...

The Three Amigos?

CLICK ON THE PHOTO

Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 71. sar2401:

Yes, You've forgotten about Hummmmberto, who is supposed to spring forth from his watery grave and create untold havoc. If we can't create new ones, we'll just dig up the old ones and recycle them. :-)

You do mean "Ho-Hum-Berto," do you not?
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Normally when we see what's in the Caribbean rightn now, it eventually forms.
At least that's the way it's been this year..
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The 12z GFS takes Ingrid into the coastline much slower and as a stronger, much more organized system.
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"New ones" might not be too far off in the future.

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Quoting 69. wunderkidcayman:
If I'm not mistaken NOAA's GONZO Upper level recon mission



Yes, you are correct. More info for the models.

That is NOAA-9
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Quoting 69. wunderkidcayman:
If I'm not mistaken NOAA's GONZO Upper level recon mission



Yes sorry I got that wrong it is NOAA low level recon mission
And by the looks of it looks more like a TD
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Ingrid has been weakening this morning at noted by NHC in their am update:

THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


Per their discussion, the current issue is whether the system can recover from the sheer disruption and what will be left to reorganize between today and tomorrow if the current sheer continues to relax. Not looking too impressive at the moment from an overall organization standpoint but the heavy and persistent convection is certainly still present.
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Time to take part in the other summertime and fall Sunday activity. TV is being turned on.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
Link



After Ingrid it's back to the slow times again. Any of the models show future storms within the next week to 2 weeks?

Yes, You've forgotten about Hummmmberto, who is supposed to spring forth from his watery grave and create untold havoc. If we can't create new ones, we'll just dig up the old ones and recycle them. :-)
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LOL what a surprise, another storm die young...
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If I'm not mistaken NOAA's GONZO Upper level recon mission

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Quoting 63. moonlightcowboy:


Looking worse and worse.
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Quoting 66. JrWeathermanFL:
Die Manuel! :P

Ingrid'll likely be a TS at 2.


Poor Manuel doesn't have much time left...don't be so harsh.
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Die Manuel! :P

Ingrid'll likely be a TS at 2.
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65. SLU
If I didn't know better, I'd say this looks like a TD at best. Not a hurricane

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Quoting 60. FunnelVortex:


Then what is that coming from the north?


Nowhere near Ingrid LOL
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Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting Jedkins01:


Geeze Eastern Gulf, think your 6000 surface CAPE is high enough?

Yeah, lots of CAPE but almost instability and very little in the way of a forcing mechanism means we don't even rate a mention in the SPC this morning.
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Center of Ingrid just barely being picked up on Brownsville radar
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Quoting 55. HurricaneCamille:


dry air? lol are your eyes ok?


Then what is that coming from the north?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


==========================
Pottery... Are you being vigilant and cautious as you conduct your activities?

: )

Yeah. I take these things seriously.
Opened 2 in case one falls over in the Tempest......
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Quoting 49. Hurricane614:
Ingrid looks to be struggling this morning. Manuel dying might help to intensify before landfall. We'll see soon enough


Ingrid's top-forecasted windspeeds has been reduced to 85 MPH from 100 MPH.

Still carries a lot of moisture which could lead to flooding, nonetheless.
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Thanks Dr. and Good Afternoon.

Two interesting back-to-back seasons so far when you consider the lack of forecasted majors last year for the Atlantic, from the usual met prediction outlets, and the same issue again this season.

While the normal prediction outlets (NOAA-NHC-CSU-Tropical Storm Risk, etc.) are certainly not gospel as noted by SLU a few days ago, the relative lack of majors in spite of otherwise favorable conditions for two years in a row is a little perplexing. However, anytime the Caribbean/US/Mexico is spared a destructive major hurricane landfall, that is a good thing and also allows the insurance industry to recover as noted by another Blogger last week.

I would finally note, as related to Sandy last year and Ingrid at the moment, that a large tropical storm with storm surge and flooding issues can be as destructive, and life threatening, as a major hurricane if conditions and trajectory are right.

Just noting that all of the experts, including the amateurs on here, with all of our science, and analog comparisons, cannot fully predict what exactly will happen in any given season and the relative lack of major hurricanes for two years in a row has stumped everyone.

My mantra used to be one storm at a time; I am thinking of expanding that to one season at a time............... :)


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Link



After Ingrid it's back to the slow times again. Any of the models show future storms within the next week to 2 weeks?
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Quoting 50. FunnelVortex:


Shear and dry air... Some hurricane Ingrid is.


dry air? lol are your eyes ok?
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Quoting 32. 954FtLCane:

For Texas and Mexico's sake I hope you're right. I understand a nice soaker is needed for that area of TX and the opposite for the area of Mexico that Ingrid is scheduled to make landfall at.

One can hope. I'm a few hundred miles up river from Brownsville. A few days of rain would be most welcome here in the middle Rio Grande Valley.
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This may actually wind up working well for TX to get some rain, imo. Remnant low with precip.




Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 15. GatorWX:
Early rollers!



Strong to isolated severe storms and a busy afternoon is what the NWS out of Tampa Bay area said for today. The decaying frontal boundary along with the daytime heating and the sea breeze staying close to the coast it could get interesting here in Madeira Beach this afternoon.
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Thank you Dr. Masters... Glad to see a Sunday post.
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Quoting 44. GatorWX:


Shear and dry air... Some hurricane Ingrid is.
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Ingrid looks to be struggling this morning. Manuel dying might help to intensify before landfall. We'll see soon enough
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Quoting 40. MrMixon:
Quick update from Colorado. Steady rain has been falling for the past two hours. Parts of the Front Range and foothills could get 1-4" of additional rain today. That's on top of 7-14" of rain from earlier this week.



I don't think the additional rain is welcome...

Coal Creek Canyon


Poudre Canyon


Four Mile Canyon


Big Thompson Canyon


Gold Run Creek


Boulder Canyon


Boulder Canyon (again)


Funny now those places have "Canyon" in their names, because it seems after this is done, there will be nothing left BUT newly eroded canyons,
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47. IKE
The year of flooding....killing people....horrible way to die......

Meanwhile....watching the ATL.....



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Quoting 40. MrMixon:
Quick update from Colorado.


MrMixon, that is unreal! Thanks for the continued updates. And, apparently, the hurt continues with more rainfall.

What is being said about the 482 unaccounted people in Larimer County?
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting 40. MrMixon:
Quick update from Colorado. Steady rain has been falling for the past two hours. Parts of the Front Range and foothills could get 1-4" of additional rain today. That's on top of 7-14" of rain from earlier this week.



I don't think the additional rain is welcome...

Coal Creek Canyon


Poudre Canyon


Four Mile Canyon


Big Thompson Canyon


Gold Run Creek


Boulder Canyon


Boulder Canyon (again)


That is just horrifying, MrMixon! I realize that we dealt with 10+ inches last week here on the island but no such damage here. My heart goes out to all that have been affected.

Lindy
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.