Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 144. RyanSperrey:
Seriously though, It really looks like Ingrid has two TS force centers...interesting.

Exactly what I'm thinking.
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Seriously though, It really looks like Ingrid has two TS force centers...interesting.
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Models have trended a bit slower today. It doesn't appear Ingrid will make landfall until tomorrow afternoon. The 12z ECMWF takes it in around 18z (1pm CDT tomorrow) while the 12z GFS takes it in around 03z Tuesday (10pm CDT tomorrow night). Both intensify it starting tonight.
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Quoting 140. JRRP:

I think I see TWO centers!
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Always cautious. Got 8 inches of flooding in the house from Debby's remains last year. It had been raining for 2 months pretty solid before that though!
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140. JRRP
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Quoting 84. HurricaneCamille:


Manuels not looking too hot herself
You mean himself right?
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I just love living in Western NC...



(picture is edited slightly with warmth color and I took this from Blue Ridge Parkway)
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The distrubance in the western caribbean gets brought into the gulf and developed a little bit by the CMC:



Don't believe any of the other models are on board yet, although most are showing some sort of developments in the gulf in the next few days or so.
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Quoting 123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its a little wet


Hey keep! You changed your profile pic!!!!!
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Quoting 128. VR46L:


You and Me both .... Getting hammered today Ireland 50+ kts .
And the Atlantic is going to continue to send nasty stuff all week ..



Humberto could scim the UK/Ireland too as he travels further north.

Had 15-20mph winds (gusts 30mph+) for many hours now in London and lots of rain too. Although nothing as bad as what others are seeing, which is normally the case being in the south east.
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 561
... A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WESTERN ARAPAHOE... WELD... NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON... NORTHERN SEDGWICK... JEFFERSON... EASTERN LARIMER... EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CLEAR CREEK... BROOMFIELD... NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS... ADAMS... EASTERN GILPIN... DENVER... LOGAN... BOULDER AND MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 1210 PM MDT... DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED TWO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN THE LAST 1.5 HOURS IN BROOMFIELD COUNTY. BETWEEN LOVELAND AND TIMNATH IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LARIMER COUNTY RADAR INDICATES 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 1.5 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOW IN EXTREME WESTERN ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES WITH 0.43 INCH REPORTED NEAR HENDERSON.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 1 TO 4 INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... DENVER... FORT COLLINS... GREELEY... STERLING... FORT MORGAN... JULESBURG... AURORA... LAKEWOOD... THORNTON... ARVADA... WESTMINSTER... CENTENNIAL... BOULDER... LONGMONT... LOVELAND... BROOMFIELD... HIGHLANDS RANCH... COMMERCE CITY... NORTHWESTERN PARKER... LITTLETON... NORTHGLENN... BRIGHTON... ENGLEWOOD... WHEAT RIDGE... LAFAYETTE... GOLDEN... WINDSOR... EVANS... LOUISVILLE AND ERIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE... TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS... HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES IN URBAN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY... COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS... STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

&&
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Apparently Humberto's remnant low is capable of time travel.
Check the date stamp on the current satellite image of 94L on WU's tropical page. Sorry can't seem to post a link.
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18z Best Track mantains Ingrid as a Hurricane at 65kts.

AL, 10, 2013091518, , BEST, 0, 226N, 961W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, M
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Quoting 130. meteorite:
We've had like 60 tropical storms this summer here in florida, in the form of afternoon thunderstorms alot of them had 40 to 60 mph winds each day
Big difference from 12 hours of constant TS force winds and flooding rains, and 10 minutes of TS winds and heavy rains ;)
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Bleh
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128. VR46L
Quoting 126. UKHWatcher:


You and Me both .... Getting hammered today Ireland 50+ kts .
And the Atlantic is going to continue to send nasty stuff all week ..

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Quoting 123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its a little wet



That's a cool radar. I'd hate to be in a small boat off shore the S.W. Gulf Coast today.
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Quoting 122. txjac:
Wow, today is the first day that I havent been checking the radar, willing each little rain storm to come my way

And lo and behold, I'm getting a bit of rain.
I love to hear the rain


Congrats. Maybe there will be more on the way. I'm thinking there's a good chance still that either Ingrid, or some remnant, with precip will follow the weakness flow into southeastern TX.

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Quoting 121. GatorWX:



its a little wet

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122. txjac
Wow, today is the first day that I havent been checking the radar, willing each little rain storm to come my way

And lo and behold, I'm getting a bit of rain.
I love to hear the rain
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Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755


Inflows more symmetrical
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Interesting photo, sflcat5... Like the look of the beams overhead, even if the storm itself is not as visible as a result...
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Quoting 117. Sfloridacat5:
Gust front just blasted through my location in S. Ft Myers.


A significant weather advisory is scrolling at the bottom of my screen for intense lightning and wind.
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Gust front just blasted through my location in S. Ft Myers.

tried to take a pic of the approaching storm, but didn't have the best view

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Quoting 106. barbamz:

First autumnal storm entering UK. More see BBC weather video.


Important effort tomorrow in Italy:

Costa Concordia salvage to go ahead
15 September 2013 Last updated at 13:48 GMT
A daring attempt to pull the shipwrecked Costa Concordia upright will go ahead on Monday, Italian officials have confirmed.
The Civil Protection agency said the sea and weather conditions were right for the salvage attempt.
Engineers have never tried to move such a huge ship so close to land.
Thirty-two people died when the cruise ship hit rocks off the Tuscan island of Giglio in January 2012. It has been lying on its side ever since.
Five people have already been convicted of manslaughter over the disaster, and the ship's captain, Francesco Schettino, is currently on trial accused of manslaughter and abandoning ship. ...

More see link above.

-------------------

I'm sorry to hear about the losses which were already caused by Ingrid and company in Mexico. And still rain in Colorado *sigh*.

Nevertheless have a good rest of the Sunday and a nice start into the week, folks. Gator-Josh:
A good travel for you towards Europe!
As I don't have much time at present to stay on the blog, bye for now with this melancholic frog in my sister's autumnal garden:








well define
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Quoting 112. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Manuel has moved ashore and its associated convection is already starting to weaken. We should see a sharp decrease in shear over Ingrid later.



Just as it looked like an eye was appearing.

likely made landfall as a hurricane imo.
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xx/xx/xx
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL NEAR THE COAST CLOSE TO MANZANILLO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 104.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ZIHUANTANEJO EASTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHANTANEJO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST SOON AND
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
COMPLETELY ONSHORE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.



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Manuel has moved ashore and its associated convection is already starting to weaken. We should see a sharp decrease in shear over Ingrid later.

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Quoting 106. barbamz:

First autumnal storm entering UK. More see BBC weather video.


Important effort tomorrow in Italy:

Costa Concordia salvage to go ahead
15 September 2013 Last updated at 13:48 GMT
A daring attempt to pull the shipwrecked Costa Concordia upright will go ahead on Monday, Italian officials have confirmed.
The Civil Protection agency said the sea and weather conditions were right for the salvage attempt.
Engineers have never tried to move such a huge ship so close to land.
Thirty-two people died when the cruise ship hit rocks off the Tuscan island of Giglio in January 2012. It has been lying on its side ever since.
Five people have already been convicted of manslaughter over the disaster, and the ship's captain, Francesco Schettino, is currently on trial accused of manslaughter and abandoning ship. ...

More see link above.

-------------------

I'm sorry to hear about the losses which were already caused by Ingrid and company in Mexico. And still rain in Colorado *sigh*.

Nevertheless have a good rest of the Sunday and a nice start into the week, folks. Gator-Josh:
A good travel for you towards Europe!
As I don't have much time at present to stay on the blog, bye for now with this melancholic frog in my sister's autumnal garden:









Thanks again Barb. Will update progress on my blog.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2755
110. SLU
Quoting 107. Tropicsweatherpr:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES



NHC is in the generous mood today for them to keep Ingrid at 65kts.
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Quoting 40. MrMixon:
Quick update from Colorado. Steady rain has been falling for the past two hours. Parts of the Front Range and foothills could get 1-4" of additional rain today. That's on top of 7-14" of rain from earlier this week.



I don't think the additional rain is welcome...

Coal Creek Canyon


Poudre Canyon


Four Mile Canyon


Big Thompson Canyon


Gold Run Creek


Boulder Canyon


Boulder Canyon (again)



That's absolutely insane. Those rainfall amounts are anywhere from close to half to near 100 of normal yearly rainfall given Denver's average of about 14 to 18 inches in a year.

In relative terms, given a yearly rainfall range of 50 to 60 inches here on average, that's equivalent to us receiving anywhere from 40 to 50 inches of rainfall in one week.

Throw a significant mountain range into the mix and I'm not surprised to see pictures and here stories of death and destruction and water rescues...


Nobody would have ever thought this was coming a few weeks ago, enjoy peace and tranquility while it lasts, because you never know when nature might turn ugly and turn beauty into ruins.



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108. VR46L
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 96.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

First autumnal storm entering UK. More see BBC weather video.


Important effort tomorrow in Italy:

Costa Concordia salvage to go ahead
15 September 2013 Last updated at 13:48 GMT
A daring attempt to pull the shipwrecked Costa Concordia upright will go ahead on Monday, Italian officials have confirmed.
The Civil Protection agency said the sea and weather conditions were right for the salvage attempt.
Engineers have never tried to move such a huge ship so close to land.
Thirty-two people died when the cruise ship hit rocks off the Tuscan island of Giglio in January 2012. It has been lying on its side ever since.
Five people have already been convicted of manslaughter over the disaster, and the ship's captain, Francesco Schettino, is currently on trial accused of manslaughter and abandoning ship. ...

More see link above.

-------------------

I'm sorry to hear about the losses which were already caused by Ingrid and company in Mexico. And still rain in Colorado *sigh*.

Nevertheless have a good rest of the Sunday and a nice start into the week, folks. Gator-Josh:
A good travel for you towards Europe!
As I don't have much time at present to stay on the blog, bye for now with this melancholic frog in my sister's autumnal garden:







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heavy rain and wind here in e cen flor. it would stink to be in the river with alittle boat.
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103. VR46L
Visual of 2 storms at one time ... From Dundee so no hotlinking ..

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Quoting 46. moonlightcowboy:


MrMixon, that is unreal! Thanks for the continued updates. And, apparently, the hurt continues with more rainfall.

What is being said about the 482 unaccounted people in Larimer County?


This is what I've found so far.

"There are now have 482 unaccounted people in Larimer County.

There are now six people presumed killed by the historic floods that hit Colorado late Wednesday. Three people were killed in Boulder County. One person was killed in Colorado Springs. A 60-year-old woman in Larimer County was presumed killed, sheriff's officials said Saturday.

The [Larimer County] sheriff's office said it does anticipate additional fatalities, but not a huge number.

"I don’t expect huge number of fatalities. I expect a lot more stories of families reuniting," Sheriff Justin Smith said during a Sunday morning press conference."


Source: TheDenverChannel.com

------------------------------------------------- ----

As for Boulder County:

"officials as of 9 p.m. said 234 people remain unaccounted for -- meaning their family or friends have not been able to make contact with them -- and three people in the county have been killed.

Officials cautioned that those 234 are not all missing, and that the number is speculative, since some people have been counted twice while entire families have only been tallied as one person.

But while Pelle said he expects that number to drop as people are able to get back in touch with loved ones and more information starts coming in from evacuation centers, officials are expecting the current death toll of three in the county may rise. Pelle said crews have not yet been able to search collapsed buildings or mudslides, places where they would expect to find bodies.

"I don't want to be pessimistic, but I want to be realistic," Pelle said."


Source: DailyCamera.com

------------------------------------------------- ----

A lot of "unaccounted for" people are probably safe at home with no power or way to call out. If I didn't have power and a functioning cell phone I'd be listed among the "unaccounted for" in Boulder County. But we're fine. Getting low on a few niceties, but have plenty of the necessities. And we still have a few routes we could use to get to "civilization" if we needed to.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
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Quoting 91. Sfloridacat5:


Lots of fuel in the area. Offshore warnings issued for waters S.W. Fl.
Could be very stormy off the S.W. coast today.


It soytainly looks like it.

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Quoting 97. ihave27windows:
Are my eyes deceiving me, or is Ingrid stationary?

Weird. I was just thinking the same thing!
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Are my eyes deceiving me, or is Ingrid stationary?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.