Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Ingrid, after more than likely weakening to a tropical storm today, has begun to intensify again as Manuel weakens as expected. 80-85mph at landfall is my guess, perhaps higher if it decides to pull together at the coast and slows down like some models are hinting.
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Quoting 185. SLU:
One landfalling hurricane and another one about to come back from the dead and the blog is moving at less than 50 comments/hr.

Sums up 2013.





Mamy gave up after the 31rst of August as they saw things were not progressing in the models nor on what was going on with the mid level dry air suppressing the MDR.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
BOCO Western Front update:
Currently the rains are subsiding up here. Nothing new coming out of the Northern affected areas, but Rollinsville (central Gilpin CO) got HEAVY rains this a.m. and there are concerns of watersheds that MAY begin to fail today. Currently there are local "crews" of citizens doing what they can to mitigate, but this is the top of Coal Creek Canyon, which has already sustained MAJOR damage. Hoping and praying 119 between Rollinsville and Central city stays open as this is currently our only way out of the hills...
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Center of Man-yi is just offshore of Japan. Should make landfall in the next several hours.

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Quoting 188. GatorWX:


It seems correct today, but I know what you're saying.


Well its not always the case, but it often is anyway.
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Quoting Luisport:
Mac Kobza ‏@kobzarm

9-15-2013 1:15pm An evacuation has been issued for the Lake Macintosh area in the City of Longmont. Flooding is imminent


This is the latest:
9-15-2013 1:30pm Update to Longmont Evacuation Update from the City of Longmont, they have been able to fix the issue with the ditch and are now recommending people shelter in place

There was never an issue with Lake McIntosh (note correct spelling) and this was never an official announcement. There was a problem with the drainage ditch that carries spillway water from Lake McInstosh that would have affected a small number of people, but the problem has been fixed.

Please, please, don't post any more twitter or Facebook information unless it comes from the Boulder OEM emergency status page. Boulder County has both official twitter and Facebook pages with official information about the flooding and evacuations. Boulder County has been inundated with false twitter and Facebook messages. Unless something come from an official source, please don't compound the problem.
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189. beell
Quoting 158. moonlightcowboy:
Firm upper ridge?



Firm mid-level ridge.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16478
Quoting 186. Jedkins01:


Doppler estimates are typically about 50% of actual totals or sometimes even less with these deep tropical thunderstorms. The only way to get more accurate radar estimates in this case would be dual pole, which that isn't. Often times a half inch is more like 1 to 1.5 inches, 2 inches is often 3 to 4 with normal radar precip estimates during the rainy season.


It seems correct today, but I know what you're saying.
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Quoting 183. hydrus:








^For the time being.

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Quoting 175. GatorWX:


Picked up over a half inch according to doppler in less than 30 mins.



Doppler estimates are typically about 50% of actual totals or sometimes even less with these deep tropical thunderstorms. The only way to get more accurate radar estimates in this case would be dual pole, which that isn't. Often times a half inch is more like 1 to 1.5 inches, 2 inches is often 3 to 4 with normal radar precip estimates during the rainy season.
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185. SLU
One landfalling hurricane and another one about to come back from the dead and the blog is moving at less than 50 comments/hr.

Sums up 2013.



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30 state highway bridges destroyed, 20 more damaged! WOW
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If you are looking for someone who is "missing" in the Colorado floods, the TV station just said to check this red cross page


Link
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Quoting 165. allancalderini:
Both with I believe the Euro also were forecasting the disturbance that became Man-yi to reach cat 4 intensity before making a landfall in Japan something that it never happen.Man-yi only peak as a severe tropical storm.


The CMC had it as a cat 1 (it peaked with 70mph winds, so was close). The GFS also had Man-Yi as a different track with earlier runs and went as high as a cat 3 hitting Tawain. But some of those earlier runs were looking at 5 days out. Once the storm formed, they generally nailed it.

The runs on the current models are predicting the development in 3-4 days. The 850mb vorticy is already quite intense:



It's also moving into a lower upper level shear environment:



Water is very warm as per usual in the WPAC. The only issue it might have is dry air:



Although it could moisten the environment up itself as it intensifies. Will be interesting to watch!
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Quoting 175. GatorWX:


Picked up over a half inch according to doppler in less than 30 mins.



I wish that our local weather office would reset our precipitation totals more often. I have mentioned it to them but to no avail. Seriously... August 31st!?!?!

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Quoting 176. txjac:


My shower gave me .02" ...
Can we trade?


After this summer, so far... I'd be delighted!
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...meanwhile....we have voluntary water rationing in our neighborhood....
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Not a whole lotta movement.

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176. txjac
Quoting 175. GatorWX:


Picked up over a half inch according to doppler in less than 30 mins.



My shower gave me .02" ...
Can we trade?
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Quoting 172. ChillinInTheKeys:


Power flashing here as usual. Cable ok so far... Fingers crossed.


Picked up over a half inch according to doppler in less than 30 mins.

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Quoting 168. GatorWX:
It is looking considerably better than this morning Andre, I'd certainly say that.



It'll be interesting if the se blob continues to fade or fires new convection. I agree there were/are two spins down there. I assume the secondary blob was a mid level spin and not at the surface.



It seems the two masses switched position regarding intensity of convection. I couldn't see both lasting long together, side by side. Ingrid should win especially as shear has relaxed some. ; )
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Mac Kobza ‏@kobzarm

9-15-2013 1:15pm An evacuation has been issued for the Lake Macintosh area in the City of Longmont. Flooding is imminent
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Quoting 171. GatorWX:


My satellite has been out for about 10 mins now :(

Internet went down only briefly and haven't lost power. My storms are winding down, but still a good amount of lightning.


Power flashing here as usual. Cable ok so far... Fingers crossed.
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Quoting 167. ChillinInTheKeys:


Lots of rain and wind with some lightning here this afternoon. Good day to kick back and watch some football... If the power and/or cable stays on. A big if!!!


My satellite has been out for about 10 mins now :(

Internet went down only briefly and haven't lost power. My storms are winding down, but still a good amount of lightning.
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AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 4 min
2 in of rain in 45 mins, 5 miles NNW of Peterson AFB., Colorado Springs, CO, trained spotter reports.


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So I see its raining in Colorado again :/. Those people and the Mexicans need a break
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It is looking considerably better than this morning Andre, I'd certainly say that.

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Lots of rain and wind with some lightning here this afternoon. Good day to kick back and watch some football... If the power and/or cable stays on... A big if!!!
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Again, that wasn't my point per se. I was trying to iterate that shear is not going to disappear. It's likely that it was in the 20-30 kt range last night into this morning. I doubt it'll get to that intensity again as Manuel is also distancing a bit. It likely will sttay in the 15-20 kt range. Manuel should keep firing new convection, especially close to the coast. Obviously it's going to weaken as it moves ashore, however it is forecast to ride the coast, giving it a much greater chance to do so.

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Quoting 157. Envoirment:
Looks like the next Typhoon in the WPAC will be here soon.

GFS




CMC



Both tend to be conservative in relation to the WPAC, so we could be looking at another very powerful system. It forms from 99W in the WPAC I believe:

Both with I believe the Euro also were forecasting the disturbance that became Man-yi to reach cat 4 intensity before making a landfall in Japan something that it never happen.Man-yi only peak as a severe tropical storm.
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Good afternoon everyone..what a beautiful sunday it is here in eastern NC..

12z Euro




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Quoting 153. GatorWX:
What up with the vis sat?



Shear is quite obviously starting to relax some as Ingrid starts to wrap convection around from the west.
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Quoting 140. JRRP:


:)
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Firm upper ridge?

LOOP
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Looks like the next Typhoon in the WPAC will be here soon.

GFS




CMC



Both tend to be conservative in relation to the WPAC, so we could be looking at another very powerful system. It forms from 99W in the WPAC I believe:

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Quoting 151. GatorWX:
Healthy storms blowing in. Guessing 20 kts or so right now.






I can't remember the last time I saw a surface CAPE like this of 7000...
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Quoting 153. GatorWX:
What up with the vis sat?


Looks fine to me.
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Quoting 149. beell:


Upper ridge trying to build back in over the top of Ingrid. Upper shortwave over the eastern Gulf in the southern branch interfering with that process to a certain extent. But maybe some improvement over Ingrid.

Dropsondes from Gonzo along the northern edge of their recon indicates the mid-level ridge is there and holding firm. Morning soundings along the gulf coast seemed to confirm. West.


I think people are being confused by the upper clouds near the periphery. It looks like it's progressing west to me, slowly at least.
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What up with the vis sat?

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Link Looks like Aldama, just N of Tampico. Mostly cattle ranches, not a ton of people.

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Healthy storms blowing in. Guessing 20 kts or so right now.

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ESTES PARK, Colo. - Rocky Mountain National Park is closed to all recreational use.

The National Park Service said the closure includes the backcountry, all trails, secondary roads, picnic areas, and park campgrounds. Campers have relocated outside the park.

The east side of Rocky Mountain National park is under an emergency disaster declaration. The park will be closed until further notice. It is too soon to determine when sections of the park may reopen or when we will have the capacity to manage recreational use.

Trail Ridge Road, which is U.S. Highway 34 through Rocky Mountain National Park, is open for essential travel only.

Source: TheDenverChannel.com


This is U.S. Highway 36 -- one of the main access roads to Estes Park -- north of Lyons. The highway is closed between Lyons and Estes Park.
(Photo courtesy: CDOT)
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149. beell


Upper ridge trying to build back in over the top of Ingrid. Upper shortwave over the eastern Gulf in the southern branch interfering with that process to a certain extent. But maybe some improvement over Ingrid.

Dropsondes from Gonzo along the northern edge of their recon indicates the mid-level ridge is there and holding firm. Morning soundings along the gulf coast seemed to confirm. West.
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This is way worse than anyone knows. Who remembers Rocky Flats? There are massive amounts of Plutonium still on the site.


Catastrophic flood : Meteorologist Biggs wonders if at some unforeseen time there might be a flood like the one that long ago deposited the alluvium that became the area known as Rocky Flats. He imagines a torrent rushing down Coal Creek Canyon and washing before it the whole of the gravelly Rocky Flats formation, carrying the contaminants left there to unknown destinations with unimaginable health and environmental effects. His observation is not far-fetched. Climate warming increases the likelihood that mountain pine forests killed by pine beetles will be ignited by lightning into catastrophic fires that denude mountainsides and prepare the way for massive flash floods in the wake of extreme weather. Those who designed the Rocky Flats cleanup made no effort to protect against this sort of interconnected environmental devastation.


Link
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Quoting 128. VR46L:




Always cautious. Got 8 inches of flooding in the house from Debby's remains last year. It had been raining for 2 months pretty solid before that though!
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Quoting 144. RyanSperrey:
Seriously though, It really looks like Ingrid has two TS force centers...interesting.

Exactly what I'm thinking.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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