Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Just showers today in Lake Worth/West Palm Beach. But I see many areas of south Florida are receiving a lot of wet weather.

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Quoting 239. Pallis:
Leyendo la letra pequeña de mi seguro contra inundaciones ... es un huracán considerado como un acto de Dios? Debido a que no dan dinero para eso.


Hello, I am from Mexico, here the insurances against flood it refers to the overflow of rivers and lakes, as for a tropical storm, is another coverage called risk by cyclone. and exist other by rains.

I am an adjustor of insurances
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I just love living in Western NC...



(picture is edited slightly with warmth color and I took this from Blue Ridge Parkway)


It's gotten really boring here weather wise though. Over the years I have noticed opposite correlations with Colorado. We had the wettest summer on record while they were dry. Past month we went very dry and they went to flooding.
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240. beell
Quoting 239. Pallis:
Reading the fine print on my flood insurance ... is a hurricane considered an act of God? Because they don't give money for that.


Not sure. Certainly does not appear to be an act of Blog.
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Quoting 205. beell:


We're all preparing for doom. Making sure we have plenty of clean clothes for the evac, mowing the grass while we still have gasoline, stocking up on survival food, etc.

ADDED: And i forgot-washing the car so we'll be looking spiffy in contra-flow.
Reading the fine print on my flood insurance ... is a hurricane considered an act of God? Because they don't give money for that.
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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS
ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE
STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME
MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS
SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL
DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 233. Doppler22:

Where is Kori at??


IDK, He could be lurking.

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Quoting beell:


We're all preparing for doom. Making sure we have plenty of clean clothes for the evac, mowing the grass while we still have gasoline, stocking up on survival food, etc.

ADDED: And i forgot-washing the car so we'll be looking spiffy in contra-flow.

LOL. Hopefully you'll siphon the last of the gas from the mower into your vehicle before all the gas stations close down too. :-)
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16138
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 104.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
234. beell
Western Caribbean remains unsettled this week. The monsoon is still with us. Not quite as strong as the circulation that spawned the twins but still over the area.

Long, narrow W to E upper ridge just south of the zonal, southern branch jet may be a plus for development/blob-o-genesis. Although the eastern gulf and eastern Caribbean may have some issues with northerly shear around the eastern periphery of the ULAC.


09/15 12Z GFS 700 mb @ 96 hrs.
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Quoting 228. CaneHunter031472:

Where is Kori at??
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Quoting 219. sar2401:

Your link does not work. It's from a far left wing group that has been fighting to have Rocky Flats closed down for decades, and now wants to be declared the "guardians of Rocky Flat", since the plant is closed. Contrary to "Meteorologist Biggs" assertion, the last contaminated building was removed and the last weapons-grade plutonium was shipped out in 2003, ending the cleanup based on a modified cleanup agreement. The cleanup was completed in 2007 and most of the area is now a wildlife refuge. The people in Colorado have enough to worry about without claptrap like this.
It's not my intention! Sorry
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Tropical Atlantic info
Ingrid's movement

6 Hour Average Movement ( About ):
Toward the WNW or 293°
At 5.0 knots (5.8 mph | 9.3 km/h)

12 Hour Average Movement (About):
Toward the WNW or 296°
At 4.6 knots (5.3 mph | 8.6 km/h)
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Quoting flsky:

Perhaps folks are out enjoying their weekend. Kind of nice to step away from the computer once-in-a-while. On another note, they STILL have the 1969 map up for 94L on the WU tropical weather page....

I noticed this also, along with non-existent storms in the Pacific. I don't know what has gone wrong with whomever is in charge of the Tropical Weather pages, but it has degenerated to point of being almost useless. WU Tropical Weather pages used to be where I went to first. Now, I rarely waste my time.
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Dolphins win again!!!! GO FINS!!!
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Quoting 211. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I dont see why the such 70% high chance for you Humberto...

This storm looks as how it became post tropical...


nhc being generous today? o_O

NHC isn't being generous at all. It would only take a persistent burst of convection over the center to get Humberto reclassified as a tropical cyclone. Conditions should gradually become more favorable for that to happen during the next day or two.
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HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV
MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
PICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE
FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH
MISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND
SIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
BETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO.

INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THERE
IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...
AND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS
CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 22.7N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 22.6N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM INGRID NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 96.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 218. trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Interesting...

can you help me and provide some links about that since I lost many of my weather links?

Link
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Quoting 185. SLU:
One landfalling hurricane and another one about to come back from the dead and the blog is moving at less than 50 comments/hr.

Sums up 2013.





Maybe, just maybe, it is a Sunday and that means NFL football is occupying a good number of the bloggers. I'm checking in due to the lightening delay in Tampa.
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You can definitely tell shear is decreasing over Ingrid as the CDO reforms.
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Quoting 183. hydrus:



little behind time stamp next image will be around 6 or just after this one was as of 3

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Quoting Luisport:
This is way worse than anyone knows. Who remembers Rocky Flats? There are massive amounts of Plutonium still on the site.


Catastrophic flood : Meteorologist Biggs wonders if at some unforeseen time there might be a flood like the one that long ago deposited the alluvium that became the area known as Rocky Flats. He imagines a torrent rushing down Coal Creek Canyon and washing before it the whole of the gravelly Rocky Flats formation, carrying the contaminants left there to unknown destinations with unimaginable health and environmental effects. His observation is not far-fetched. Climate warming increases the likelihood that mountain pine forests killed by pine beetles will be ignited by lightning into catastrophic fires that denude mountainsides and prepare the way for massive flash floods in the wake of extreme weather. Those who designed the Rocky Flats cleanup made no effort to protect against this sort of interconnected environmental devastation.


Link

Your link does not work. It's from a far left wing group that has been fighting to have Rocky Flats closed down for decades, and now wants to be declared the "guardians of Rocky Flat", since the plant is closed. Contrary to "Meteorologist Biggs" assertion, the last contaminated building was removed and the last weapons-grade plutonium was shipped out in 2003, ending the cleanup based on a modified cleanup agreement. The cleanup was completed in 2007 and most of the area is now a wildlife refuge. The people in Colorado have enough to worry about without claptrap like this.
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Quoting 216. CybrTeddy:
12z GFS is showing a 11mb pressure drop between now and 24 hours from now for Ingrid.

Interesting...

can you help me and provide some links about that since I lost many of my weather links?
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Quoting 213. CybrTeddy:


Very, very high model support for regeneration.
yes, but at this time this 94L does not really deserve the 70% chance even if its going to be a TC later

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12z GFS is showing a 11mb pressure drop between now and 24 hours from now for Ingrid.
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Quoting 211. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I dont see why the such 70% high chance for you Humberto...

This storm looks as how it became post tropical...


nhc being generous today? o_O

Well conditions are expected to become Much more favorable so it is likely that he will come back from the dead
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Storms picking on Mexico this year

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Quoting 211. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I dont see why the such 70% high chance for you Humberto...

This storm looks as how it became post tropical...


nhc being generous today? o_O


Very, very high model support for regeneration.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I dont see why the such 70% high chance for you Humberto...

This storm looks as how it became post tropical...


nhc being generous today? o_O
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12z Navgem 180 hours
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209. flsky
Quoting 185. SLU:
One landfalling hurricane and another one about to come back from the dead and the blog is moving at less than 50 comments/hr.

Sums up 2013.




Perhaps folks are out enjoying their weekend. Kind of nice to step away from the computer once-in-a-while. On another note, they STILL have the 1969 map up for 94L on the WU tropical weather page....
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Quoting 204. SLU:


I could imagine if Ingrid was 300 miles further north that I won't be able to keep up with the posts.

Or if Ingrid was another Irene.
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16W/TS/M/C1


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Ingrid and Manuel are heading for the same weakness . I think Ingrid might give us a surprize
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205. beell
Quoting 185. SLU:
One landfalling hurricane and another one about to come back from the dead and the blog is moving at less than 50 comments/hr.

Sums up 2013.





We're all preparing for doom. Making sure we have plenty of clean clothes for the evac, mowing the grass while we still have gasoline, stocking up on survival food, etc.

ADDED: And i forgot-washing the car so we'll be looking spiffy in contra-flow.
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204. SLU
Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:


Sums up the blog attitude towards storms that don't hit the US I'd say.


I could imagine if Ingrid was 300 miles further north that I won't be able to keep up with the posts.
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203. VR46L
At least some of the Rain is getting where its needed...



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The amorphous blob that obscures Ingrid's low-level center has become a bit better defined over the coming hours, a sign that shear is gradually lessening.
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Good afternoon all
Manuel is making Ingrid struggle but not for long

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200. SLU
Quoting 194. Tropicsweatherpr:


Mamy gave up after the 31rst of August as they saw things were not progressing in the models nor on what was going on with the mid level dry air suppressing the MDR.


Not a season for the faint of heart. 2014 might not be much better.

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Quoting 197. CybrTeddy:


Sums up the blog attitude towards storms that don't hit the US I'd say.
I may be right now but I would probably not be at night as I am going to celebrate the 192 year of independence of my country and its neighbors,So that is my excuse :D
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10L/TS/I/CX
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Quoting 185. SLU:
One landfalling hurricane and another one about to come back from the dead and the blog is moving at less than 50 comments/hr.

Sums up 2013.





Sums up the blog attitude towards storms that don't hit the US I'd say.
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xx/xx/xx
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Ingrid, after more than likely weakening to a tropical storm today, has begun to intensify again as Manuel weakens as expected. 80-85mph at landfall is my guess, perhaps higher if it decides to pull together at the coast and slows down like some models are hinting.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.