Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 289. FunnelVortex:
Starting to feel like Fall here in good ol' Wausau, WI

that cold area move east over time

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Quoting 291. HurricaneCamille:
This place is horribly quiet. embarrassingly quiet really.


Ingrid just looks that bad. The storm is a bust.
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Quoting 281. Neapolitan:
I've been listening to the Boulder County sheriff/fire department radio feed. A couple of hours ago, first responders were called to a home where a person checking on a neighbor found the front door blocked by what appeared to be a body. When help arrived, they told dispatch it appeared at first glance that the person had been asphyxiated due to a gas leak.

Sad. And I imagine there'll be a number of similar incidents over the next few days...


Live TV Coverage
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Quoting 287. flsky:

Por lo tanto, el resultado de la casualidad?


Asi es, de donde eres por cierto?
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This place is horribly quiet. embarrassingly quiet really.
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Quoting 284. GeoffreyWPB:


Just got in from work but we are now dealing with two storms with Ingrid, correct? Is one going that way and the other the other way? Models still show a swan dive deep into MX.
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Starting to feel like Fall here in good ol' Wausau, WI

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Quoting 283. CybrTeddy:


Careless mistake. Vortex says 987mb, so we'll see.


The lowest pressure data says 984 mbs but the VDM has 987 mbs. Why the diference?

URNT15 KWBC 152109
NOAA3 1310A INGRID HDOB 15 20130915
210000 2245N 09538W 7597 02362 9961 +150 +128 175053 053 042 005 00
210030 2245N 09540W 7587 02363 9944 +154 +149 180057 058 048 004 00
210100 2245N 09542W 7574 02368 9931 +154 +148 174060 062 053 003 00
210130 2245N 09544W 7576 02357 9908 +167 +149 177054 059 055 003 00
210200 2244N 09546W 7593 02326 9887 +176 +151 179046 046 056 001 00
210230 2244N 09548W 7548 02363 9867 +183 +146 183043 046 049 002 00
210300 2244N 09551W 7535 02373 9850 +194 +135 191031 033 041 000 03
210330 2244N 09553W 7542 02356 9842 +197 +128 193018 022 031 001 00
210400 2245N 09555W 7526 02371 9841 +192 +129 187012 014 012 003 03
210430 2245N 09557W 7523 02375 9843 +188 +139 201007 009 012 001 03
210500 2245N 09559W 7523 02375 9840 +192 +139 281006 008 010 000 00
210530 2245N 09601W 7504 02400 9840 +193 +137 325011 013 007 000 00
210600 2245N 09604W 7520 02386 9846 +193 +132 344015 016 013 002 00
210630 2245N 09606W 7537 02372 9851 +194 +138 351022 025 028 001 00
210700 2245N 09608W 7534 02382 9869 +182 +139 354035 039 043 001 00
210730 2245N 09610W 7541 02385 9889 +171 +147 353043 048 051 001 00
210800 2245N 09612W 7530 02405 9903 +166 +149 355056 058 054 002 00
210830 2245N 09614W 7544 02400 9919 +163 +143 003058 058 053 005 00
210900 2245N 09616W 7563 02391 9946 +148 +146 008054 056 046 006 00
210930 2245N 09618W 7576 02386 9956 +152 +129 015051 052 042 001 00
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287. flsky
Quoting 253. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


la traduccion para act of God legalmente es caso fortuito.

Por lo tanto, el resultado de la casualidad?
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Co springs is getting hit too!

Cheyenne Mountain Air Force Station spent Saturday cleaning up what they're calling a catastrophic mudslide.

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Quoting 281. Neapolitan:
I've been listening to the Boulder County sheriff/fire department radio feed. A couple of hours ago, first responders were called to a home where a person checking on a neighbor found the front door blocked by what appeared to be a body. When help arrived, they told dispatch it appeared at first glance that the person had been asphyxiated due to a gas leak.

Sad. And I imagine there'll be a number of similar incidents over the next few days...
My God this is so sad... just stay safe everyone!
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Quoting 282. TheGreatHodag:


i presume you mean 6mb drop rather than 6mph drop? so pressure down to 984?


Careless mistake. Vortex says 987mb, so we'll see.
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Quoting 278. CybrTeddy:
6mph pressure drop per recon.


i presume you mean 6mb drop rather than 6mph drop? so pressure down to 984?
Member Since: January 13, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
Quoting 270. Luisport:
Carl Walker ‏@_ANEWS_ 1 min
#ANEWS 5 people confirmed dead in the Colorado floods, with 1,254 people still unaccounted for statewide


I've been listening to the Boulder County sheriff/fire department radio feed. A couple of hours ago, first responders were called to a home where a person checking on a neighbor found the front door blocked by what appeared to be a body. When help arrived, they told dispatch it appeared at first glance that the person had been asphyxiated due to a gas leak.

Sad. And I imagine there'll be a number of similar incidents over the next few days...
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000
URNT12 KWBC 152126
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013
A. 15/21:04:51Z
B. 22 deg 45 min N
095 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2993 m
D. 56 kt
E. 94 deg 11 nm
F. 174 deg 62 kt
G. 91 deg 15 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 15 C / 2362 m
J. 19 C / 2366 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 1310A INGRID OB 03
SONDE SPLASHED WITH 5 KTS WIND
SST 27.3C MIXED LAYER DEPTH 35 METERS
PARTIAL EYEWALL FRAGMENT N THRU E
MAX FL WIND 62 KT 91/15 21:01:06Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 97 / 5 NM FROM FL CNTR
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
Quoting 276. GeoffreyWPB:
From Key West NWS Disco...

BEGINNING
MONDAY...MODELS CONSISTENTLY STREAM LOW LEVEL VORITICTY BOUNDARIES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IN SUCCESSIVE FASHION. THESE
FEATURES...IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCAL ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT PERIOD. DID INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THAT PERIOD WITHIN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY TO 70 PERCENT SO THAT WE CONTINUE OUR TREND TOWARDS MODEL
CONSENSUS.
Both are emphasizing the non-tropical angle, but 'tis the season. I'm sure many will be looking for run-to-run consistency and upcoming model consensus in the coming days here.
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6mb* pressure drop per recon.
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I was typing fast and ment to but NHC in ().
I didn't mean to say the NHC was wrong..
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From Key West NWS Disco...

BEGINNING
MONDAY...MODELS CONSISTENTLY STREAM LOW LEVEL VORITICTY BOUNDARIES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IN SUCCESSIVE FASHION. THESE
FEATURES...IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCAL ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT PERIOD. DID INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES THIS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THAT PERIOD WITHIN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY TO 70 PERCENT SO THAT WE CONTINUE OUR TREND TOWARDS MODEL
CONSENSUS.
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Quoting 267. FunnelVortex:


Did you read their new advisory? They aknowlage (I don't know how to spell it) that fact.


They're still overrating it to a massive extent. It'll be light by tonight. Manuel is finished
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Quoting 256. GetReal:





Saints and Bucs have been in a lightening delay for 1 hour now.


look at that curl in the radar reflection, kinda see it out there in the gulf due west too on the water vapor
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Quoting 266. Tropicsweatherpr:
62kt Flight level, 56kt SFMR, 984mb pressure.

Storm has done some organizing since earlier.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32529
This far long-range model(s) perspective has lately been getting a good fighting push locally...

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
[...]

FRI-SUN (MODIFIED PREV)...
[...]
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL OF LOWERING SFC PRESSURES NEAR/EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE SAT NIGHT-SUN TIME FRAME...AND THEN LIFTING OUT A SURFACE LOW (BAROCLINICALLY ENHANCED?) TO THE NE TOWARDS CUBA/SOUTH FL/BAHAMAS BEYOND THE DAY 7 FCST PERIOD (DAYS 8-10/NEXT MON-WED).
[...]
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Marie Price ‏@ZoeyRose_nm 6 min
Colorado battles historic flooding-Expect Death Toll 2 rise-1rst NewMexico Fatality hr from my Hometown http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/09/14/b oulder-colorado-floods/2813225/ … via @USATODAY


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Carl Walker ‏@_ANEWS_ 1 min
#ANEWS 5 people confirmed dead in the Colorado floods, with 1,254 people still unaccounted for statewide


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Quoting 256. GetReal:





Saints and Bucs have been in a lightening delay for 1 hour now.


The Gods of Freeman have spoken. ; 0
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3785
Quoting 264. JrWeathermanFL:
Shear might still be moderate NHC, but it's evident that it's weakening.


It'll be low within a few hours. From now on Ingrid will be dealing with the best conditions she's had yet up until landfall.
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Quoting 264. JrWeathermanFL:
Shear might still be moderate NHC, but it's evident that it's weakening.


Did you read their new advisory? They aknowlage (I don't know how to spell it) that fact.
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62kt Flight level, 56kt SFMR, 984mb pressure.
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Quoting 219. sar2401:

Your link does not work. It's from a far left wing group that has been fighting to have Rocky Flats closed down for decades...
Coming from your far right wing perspective, that would make them centrists ...
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Shear might still be moderate NHC, but it's evident that it's weakening.
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262. beell
Quoting 258. shoreacres:


It has to be serious. Someone invoked STORMTOP in the last blog. ;)


I devoted the better part of my Saturday to Ingrid. Sunday has been dedicated to preparation (chores).
:)
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Quoting 256. GetReal:





Saints and Bucs have been in a lightening delay for 1 hour now.

So.far.not.much.rain.for.stadium.but.still.in.lig htning.zone
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Quoting 239. Pallis:
Reading the fine print on my flood insurance ... is a hurricane considered an act of God? Because they don't give money for that.


Sorry, but our insurance policy doesn't cover fire, theft, or acts of dog.
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Quoting 249. GeoffreyWPB:


Hi Keeps...What was that zipped through south Florida at day nine?
looks like a quick scud system have to see if it keeps showing up and moving up in time
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Quoting beell:


We're all preparing for doom. Making sure we have plenty of clean clothes for the evac, mowing the grass while we still have gasoline, stocking up on survival food, etc.

ADDED: And i forgot-washing the car so we'll be looking spiffy in contra-flow.


It has to be serious. Someone invoked STORMTOP in the last blog. ;)
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Quoting 245. GeoffreyWPB:
Just showers today in Lake Worth/West Palm Beach. But I see many areas of south Florida are receiving a lot of wet weather.



Feed coming from deep in the Caribbean. Sign of things to come.
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Quoting 245. GeoffreyWPB:
Just showers today in Lake Worth/West Palm Beach. But I see many areas of south Florida are receiving a lot of wet weather.






Saints and Bucs have been in a lightening delay for 1 hour now.
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The NHC is down casting Ingrid.

Link
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254. beell
Quoting 249. GeoffreyWPB:


Hi Keeps...What was that zipped through south Florida at day nine?


See 234. Maybe the same thing the NAVGEM is feeding on.
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Quoting 251. flsky:

En realidad, todo el tiempo es "un acto de Dios", aunque yo prefiero el término "acto de la naturaleza."


la traduccion para act of God legalmente es caso fortuito.
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Quoting 204. SLU:


I could imagine if Ingrid was 300 miles further north that I won't be able to keep up with the posts.
It has more to do with the storm been weak like they have all been this year.
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251. flsky
Quoting 239. Pallis:
Reading the fine print on my flood insurance ... is a hurricane considered an act of God? Because they don't give money for that.

In actuality, all weather is "an act of god" although I prefer the term "act of nature."
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18Z NAM at 84 hours
The story of the season. Low pressures lined up from the Southern Caribbean to the BOC. Time for some of them to start moving north.
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Quoting 243. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Hi Keeps...What was that zipped through south Florida at day nine?
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Manuels done for.

Shear is going to start decreasing at a massive rate very shortly.

Much sooner then the 12 hours the NHC seems to think
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Poor Mexico, I could not imagine a possible rainfall of 25 inches good God that flooding will be catastrophic for some of those areas.
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246. SLU
ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE PICTURES...
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Just showers today in Lake Worth/West Palm Beach. But I see many areas of south Florida are receiving a lot of wet weather.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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