Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 340. FunnelVortex:


Because they only have this sorry storm as a hurricane because it is an immediate threat for land.

Perhaps today, but it was a solid hurricane yesterday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
344. flsky
Storm coming from SE into Ponce Inlet today. Looked promising, but didn't get a single drop. :(

Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1956
Quoting 341. opal92nwf:
76

76 days until this wretched hurricane season ends

I think what has been more stormy this season is the blog, not the Atlantic....


Ugh. There is not even a blob worthy of a blob alert.

Come on winter, come early and send us some big blizzards and end this boredom of Hurricane Season.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 322. wunderkidcayman:
There seem to be an elongated weak and broad LLC on 18.1°N 80.0°W-88.°W associated with a broad area of low pressure


In that shot I see a congress of Manuel, his companion SE low, and Ingrid to one area which might suggest a consolidation of all the players. Each bring with them enough moisture train to enable a mega-merge over MX.

If these lows spin around each other until one storm is born, that'd be historic and catastrophic.
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76

76 days until this wretched hurricane season ends

I think what has been more stormy this season is the blog, not the Atlantic....
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Quoting 333. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not betting because that's not happening. Why would it be downgraded?


Because they only have this sorry storm as a hurricane because it is an immediate threat for land.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 337. GeoffreyWPB:
Keeper's post 243...Something coming out of the NW Caribbean at about day 8.


Yep keep an eye on it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
NOAA RECON flying N

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Keeper's post 243...Something coming out of the NW Caribbean at about day 8.

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Quoting 333. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not betting because that's not happening. Why would it be downgraded?

Exactly thank you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Quoting 329. stormpetrol:
Time: 22:08:00Z
Coordinates: 22.75N 96.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.8 mb (~ 22.23 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,384 meters (~ 7,822 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 984.0 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 321 at 10 knots (From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.9C (~ 69.6F)
Dew Pt: 13.0C (~ 55.4F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think this is latest center fix.


A 60 mph sustained was measured east of the center at 21:01 or 6:01 PM... , they turned SWwards after flying over the center I see.

edit.. 71 mph at flight level... sorry
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting 319. redwagon:


What, are you seeing an Ingrid split?
No, I thought Ingrid may scoot up to Texas/La with a weakness in the ridge. I was joking off my bad guess to Geoffrey. I have heard in the last couple of days about a piece of energy being thrown off by Ingrid an developing in the GOM. But I havent seen any model support.
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Quoting 306. FunnelVortex:
How much do you bet Ingrid will be downgraded to a TS post-season?

Not betting because that's not happening. Why would it be downgraded?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting 327. VR46L:


Its very broad trough .... there is No Low marked on the surface Maps


It a broad low or trof of low pressure there isn't any marking on the sfc map as of yet but there should be very soon there is one due to surface obs showing a weak broad and elongated LLC and pressures are lowering in the area so there is one however it ain't makes yet on the map
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
331. SLU
Quoting 328. UKHWatcher:


lol.....
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Well this is the first time I ever use Levi's model graphics...
cybrTeddy gave me his link, I gotta figure how this works

A 1002mb low (Ingrid)... in the 18z run surface pressure


soon to make another HH fix
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Time: 22:08:00Z
Coordinates: 22.75N 96.0333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 752.8 mb (~ 22.23 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,384 meters (~ 7,822 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 984.0 mb (~ 29.06 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 321° at 10 knots (From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Dew Pt: 13.0°C (~ 55.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

I think this is latest center fix.
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Quoting 308. SLU:
Could Humberto become the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic north of 50N?



I sincerely hope not!
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327. VR46L
Quoting 322. wunderkidcayman:
There seem to be an elongated weak and broad LLC on 18.1°N 80.0°W-88.°W associated with a broad area of low pressure


Its very broad trough .... there is No Low marked on the surface Maps

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Vort at all levels are stacked with higher vort being located on the W side near 18.0°N 88.0°W this is vort at 925mb 850mb 700mb and 500mb upper shear is expected to drop out in the NW Caribbean within the next 24-48hrs range so need to keep an eye on
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Looks like Humberto has had some nice convection on it's north side for the past few hours and some new convection is starting to form on its east side.

Now it just needs to move towards the center, persist, and it will be a storm again.

You can do it, Humberto, I belive in you!

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 281. Neapolitan:
I've been listening to the Boulder County sheriff/fire department radio feed. A couple of hours ago, first responders were called to a home where a person checking on a neighbor found the front door blocked by what appeared to be a body. When help arrived, they told dispatch it appeared at first glance that the person had been asphyxiated due to a gas leak.

Sad. And I imagine there'll be a number of similar incidents over the next few days...
Its almost hard to comprehend how fast it happened. Hopefully there will be more good endings than tragic ones.
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323. VR46L
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There seem to be an elongated weak and broad LLC on 18.1°N 80.0°W-88.°W associated with a broad area of low pressure
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
... A significant weather advisory is in effect for eastern Palm Beach
County... for frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds of 45 to
55 mph...

* until 645 PM EDT

* at 607 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm near Port of Palm Beach... and moving west at 20
mph.

* The storm will affect...
Mangonia Park...
Haverhill...
Golden Lakes...
Royal Palm Beach...
the acreage...
and surrounding communities.

The primary impacts will be frequent to excessive lightning and gusty
winds of 45 to 55 mph. Lightning is the number one weather related
killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no protection. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

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Quoting 316. scott39:
Are models seeing it?


Not that scenario.
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Quoting 310. scott39:
I meant the piece of energy was going to Texas/La border......Yea right Lol


What, are you seeing an Ingrid split?
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Quoting 317. HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
6:00 AM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Near Shizuoka Prefecture

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (965 hPa) located at 33.9N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 22 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 45.5N 150.1E - Extratropical Low In Kurils Water


So it's almost a typhoon.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
317. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
6:00 AM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Near Shizuoka Prefecture

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (965 hPa) located at 33.9N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 22 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 45.5N 150.1E - Extratropical Low In Kurils Water
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Quoting 297. GeoffreyWPB:


Just one storm. It has been posted a few times on here that Ingrid may leave a piece of energy behind that may form into its own entity. Not seeing that at this time.
Are models seeing it?
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Quoting 297. GeoffreyWPB:


Just one storm. It has been posted a few times on here that Ingrid may leave a piece of energy behind that may form into its own entity. Not seeing that at this time.


I'm guessing no good recent Ascats, either. I have yet to see what's been going on under all that convection.

I can report that she's been covering the Srn half of TX in clouds for two days now, that burst at around 9/10pm.
If nothing else, she'll retard our evaporation rate until some unknown feature manifests that Austin forecasts have been declaring for about a week now.

What's the word on the disturbance in the GOH?
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Quoting 308. SLU:
Could Humberto become the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic north of 50N?






Maybe but I'm kinda doubting it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Quoting 306. FunnelVortex:
How much do you bet Ingrid will be downgraded to a TS post-season?

Lol how about £5.9 mil via PayPal then you can go bank and change that to UD$
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
312. SLU
Quoting 298. CybrTeddy:


Check out Hurricane Nate in 2011. Exposed CoC, still a hurricane.


Nate was still more classical in nature. Ingrid is very blobbish. Can't remember seeing a hurricane with that type of could pattern in the past ...
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Quoting 309. meteorite:
been a pretty active season so far with 9 storms already and more to come


Active? HAHAHAHAHAHA
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 297. GeoffreyWPB:


Just one storm. It has been posted a few times on here that Ingrid may leave a piece of energy behind that may form into its own entity. Not seeing that at this time.
I meant the piece of energy was going to Texas/La border......Yea right Lol
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308. SLU
Could Humberto become the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic north of 40N?





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Anyway so far (ACE) index for the season as of 2100 UTC September 15 is 21.01 units.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
How much do you bet Ingrid will be downgraded to a TS post-season?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Ex-Humberto
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Spoke to soon...Thunderstorms moving into Lake Worth/West Palm area...

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AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1 min
TS Man-yi makes landfall near Toyota, Japan. Shionomisaki received over 10 in of rain in 36 hrs.

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Quoting 296. SLU:
Only in 2013 could this pass for a hurricane.

My gut feeling is that the NHC kept designating this system as "hurricane" Ingrid throughout the day so as to not cause people to let their guard down since it could easily explode just before landfall.


Yeah I think your gut is telling you to go and get dinner no Ingrid is still a hurricane and it should not be put down to TS till after landfall
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Quoting 298. CybrTeddy:


Check out Hurricane Nate in 2011. Exposed CoC, still a hurricane.


Wasn't it you who said it gets to a point where you have to use your eyes?
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Quoting 294. FunnelVortex:


Ingrid just looks that bad. The storm is a bust.

Tell that to the people in Mexico who have already lost their lives due to this "bust"

Sorry it's disappointing to you.
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1 min
Spotter reports golf-ball-sized hail 6 miles SE of Hutchinson, Kan.


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Quoting 296. SLU:
Only in 2013 could this pass for a hurricane.

My gut feeling is that the NHC kept designating this system as "hurricane" Ingrid throughout the day so as to not cause people to let their guard down since it could easily explode just before landfall.



Check out Hurricane Nate in 2011. Exposed CoC, still a hurricane.
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Quoting 290. redwagon:


Just got in from work but we are now dealing with two storms with Ingrid, correct? Is one going that way and the other the other way? Models still show a swan dive deep into MX.


Just one storm. It has been posted a few times on here that Ingrid may leave a piece of energy behind that may form into its own entity. Not seeing that at this time.
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296. SLU
Only in 2013 could this pass for a hurricane.

My gut feeling is that the NHC kept designating this system as "hurricane" Ingrid throughout the day so as to not cause people to let their guard down since it could easily explode just before landfall.

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Quoting 289. FunnelVortex:
Starting to feel like Fall here in good ol' Wausau, WI

that cold area move east over time

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.