Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

Share this Blog
55
+

Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 395 - 345

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

The Air Force recon plane just made its first pass through Ingrid's center, pressure was about 989-990mb, winds looked to be about 65mph, though there were higher readings that had high rain rates. I doubt Ingrid has been a hurricane for most of today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 379. FunnelVortex:


Not by much



The beautiful thing is, while the loop consensus vs. the Manuel input/congregation thing, she's drifting closer and closer to TX. I saw (and have) a loop where she actually DID loop, to satisfy the models and forecasters.

Now the models can shake that loop out of their heads.



Look closely to see the tiny loop she did.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
GFS...18Z...180 hours...



Link
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11537
Quoting 375. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye is trying to redevelop.

I believe she is at 60knots right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 380. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Tropical Storm Barry, Tropical Storm Fernand, Tropical Depression Eight, and Hurricane Ingrid. Part II. Mexico just can't get a break. These storms are really beginning to take a toll. All it would take is for a Late season Major Hurricane to plow into mainland Mexico, and millions upon billions of dollars in damages and many fatalities would occur.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
390. VR46L
Quoting 385. Pallis:
Exactly what I was hoping for from the beginning. Any rain however fast moving is a blessing in Texas.http://beforeitsnews.com/r2/?url=http://weat her.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv= 0&t=l12®ion=we



Looking at the water vapour Map ... Texas has to benefit from the horror Mexico is facing...

The vapour of both storms seems to be heading North




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 384. stormpetrol:
380. TropicalAnalystwx13

I guess this may go down as the BOC Season.

Yeah, serious. Barry, Fernand, Eight, Ingrid, and potentially this. Thankfully for Mexico, they've all been weak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 377. redwagon:


In other words, a Wilma analogue.


REALLY??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 379. FunnelVortex:


Not by much



Actually it has improved it's structure quite a bit as you can probably tell by the image above it's trying to develop an eyewall.
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
Quoting 371. VR46L:
Exactly what I was hoping for from the beginning. Any rain however fast moving is a blessing in Texas./r2/?url=http://weat her.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv= 0&t=l12ion=we
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
380. TropicalAnalystwx13

I guess this may go down as the BOC Season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
382. Skyepony (Mod)
Three river Gauges in the Boulder area gaveway due to flooding & are no longer reporting..

North Fork Big Thompson River at Drake just back below the record..


South Platte River Near Kernsey still a few feet above record.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Manuel has gone much further inland than expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 378. stormpetrol:


Ingrid much more organized than earlier today.


Not by much

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting 375. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eye is trying to redevelop.



Ingrid much more organized than earlier today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 355. GrandCaymanMed:
I am also seeing a low pressure area forming near 18 N and 84 W or somewhere around there in the NW Caribbean. Shear is expected to drop and several models show a tropical cyclone forming from this area in a week. That means that this area will remain in the Caribbean for a week, giving it plenty of time to wait for shear to fall and subsequently take advantage of some outrageously high oceanic heat content. Needless to say, I am watching the NW Caribbean very closely, and so should people in Cuba and South Florida.


In other words, a Wilma analogue.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280


"Miss Piggy" doing a loop a doop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eye is trying to redevelop.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 365. CybrTeddy:


When it comes to the models, yes.


Oh right of course, so only use your eyes when the models keep a storm weak when it is obviously strengthening on satellite. Should've known.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since its so slow here

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Good evening all... it is raining again here, as it has been off and on all afternoon. I am sharing the concerns of Floridians who like us have been rained on somewhat more than usual this season. What happens if we get a large slow-moving storm through this area??? Everything is saturated.



I've been reading some of the information about the current wx disaster in Colorado, and I'm reminded yet again of the power of water. My hearts go out to those people who live in such a beautiful yet vulnerable area.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
371. VR46L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 367. FunnelVortex:


I have no idea what that is.


University of Wisconsin lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
369. SLU
Quoting 363. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hey,what is that in MDR? I know is fantasyland but seeing something in that area is interesting being 2013.


Of note is that the EURO and GFS forecast the ridge to be anchored near 20 - 25 north from about day 8 onwards. If this happens, then the waves may get suppressed further south and over warmer waters....

If something happens, it will likely stay well south as indicated by the 18Z GFS with a westward moving low at 9N 42W in 16 days (fantasy land).

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Matthew DesOrmeaux ‏@cynicusprime 2 min
Wow... MT @MarcKMGH:
CO Office of Emergency Management estimates 17,494 homes damaged & 1,502 destroyed in floods http://ch7ne.ws/15vVCg2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 358. wxgeek723:


You're a Wisconsinite Funnel? Didn't know that. Actually going through the messy Udub application process as we speak.


I have no idea what that is.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
366. SLU
Quoting 363. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hey,what is that in MDR? I know is fantasyland but seeing something is interesting being 2013.


Just some late season entertainment from the GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 301. wxgeek723:


Wasn't it you who said it gets to a point where you have to use your eyes?


When it comes to the models, yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 347. Hhunter:


Dont worry winter will be big time. I have been reviewing some Bastardi videos today and some of the analog years are 77 & 78


what was his logic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 360. SLU:


Hey,what is that in MDR? I know is fantasyland but seeing something in that area is interesting being 2013.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 356. meteorite:
what do you concider quality, a cat 5 hitting the conus?


Lol. No I consider quality to be more than a handful of weak tropical storms that cannot even produce an ACE more than 8 when combined.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
360. SLU
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 348. stormpetrol:


18N/85W appears some kinda spin there.


All I need is a 750 vort map, if anybody can be quicker than me.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting 289. FunnelVortex:
Starting to feel like Fall here in good ol' Wausau, WI



You're a Wisconsinite Funnel? Didn't know that. Actually going through the messy Udub application process as we speak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there is a meteorological purgatory, 2013 Hurricane Season is it.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
I am also seeing a low pressure area forming near 18 N and 84 W or somewhere around there in the NW Caribbean. Shear is expected to drop and several models show a tropical cyclone forming from this area in a week. That means that this area will remain in the Caribbean for a week, giving it plenty of time to wait for shear to fall and subsequently take advantage of some outrageously high oceanic heat content. Needless to say, I am watching the NW Caribbean very closely, and so should people in Cuba and South Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 307. wunderkidcayman:
Anyway so far (ACE) index for the season as of 2100 UTC September 15 is 21.01 units.


Worst than ridiculous.... IMO
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Another Recon on way "Miss Piggy" must be headed home, still sufficient data I think to keep Ingrid a minimal 75mph hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18Z GFS ---->> BORING ENDLESS BORING
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
WARNING - THIS JUST IN: According to the National Weather Service, a flash flood warning is in effect for Boulder until Monday at noon. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
350. flsky
Quoting 292. YUCATANCHICXULUB:


Asi es, de donde eres por cierto?

Estoy en el este de la Florida Central - pueblo llamado Ponce Inlet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 309. meteorite:
been a pretty active season so far with 9 storms already and more to come


Quality over quantity my friend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 346. redwagon:




I can tell you with recent 2013 experience that this CARIB mess is about to coalesce into one center. I can find a mid-level low that will be focus, gonna go look.


18N/85W appears some kinda spin there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 343. FunnelVortex:


Ugh. There is not even a blob worthy of a blob alert.

Come on winter, come early and send us some big blizzards and end this boredom of Hurricane Season.


Dont worry winter will be big time. I have been reviewing some Bastardi videos today and some of the analog years are 77 & 78
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 322. wunderkidcayman:
There seem to be an elongated weak and broad LLC on 18.1°N 80.0°W-88.°W associated with a broad area of low pressure




I can tell you with recent 2013 experience that this CARIB mess is about to coalesce into one center. I can find a mid-level low that will be focus, gonna go look.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting 340. FunnelVortex:


Because they only have this sorry storm as a hurricane because it is an immediate threat for land.

Perhaps today, but it was a solid hurricane yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 395 - 345

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron