Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 431. GeoffreyWPB:


Could you throw a Bloody Mary in there?



picky, picky...
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Down to 35 kts.

EP, 13, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1047W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 90, 40, 0, 1004, 140, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MANUEL, M,
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Quoting 435. wunderkidcayman:
Hey stormpetrol yeah up to this day I still remember Hurricane Ivan like it was yesterday

On other note NW Carib AOI very interesting


Over Macho Grande?
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00z Best Track for Ingrid stays at 65kts.

AL, 10, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 229N, 961W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, D
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Quoting 440. stormpetrol:


Very interesting, but I'm thinking this AOI might move ENE

Think so too but hmm you never know for sure
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
Quoting 435. wunderkidcayman:
Hey stormpetrol yeah up to this day I still remember Hurricane Ivan like it was yesterday

On other note NW Carib AOI very interesting


Very interesting, but I'm thinking this AOI might move ENE
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WOW! Manuel with the surprise of the day, by moving substantially more inland than forecasted, and I mean seriously more inland, look at the picture I attached below. This will have a big effect on Ingrid's future track. If you go on the latest satellite imagery, you can see Manuel's shear size pushing Ingrid's convective field to the eastward slightly. Over the last three hours, Ingrid has moved away from her forecast point in a more NE direction. As you can also see below, the green dot is her current center and below that is her forecast point for this same time period(NHC). I wouldn't call this a wobble either, because it is due to Manuel's westward movement. If he continues inland, you could see Ingrid get pushed more northward. Mexico still seems to be her target, but she is getting closer to Texas than originally projected. Interesting.





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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 23:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2013
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 23:34:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°54'N 96°05'W (22.9N 96.0833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 122 miles (197 km) to the ENE (68°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,345m (4,413ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 73kts (From the ESE at ~ 84.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,512m (4,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 23:30:30Z
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Quoting 436. GeoffreyWPB:
Ingrid seems to be coming together to me...


Agreed and USAF RECON show the same
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
Ingrid seems to be coming together to me...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
Hey stormpetrol yeah up to this day I still remember Hurricane Ivan like it was yesterday

On other note NW Carib AOI very interesting
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
Thanks Washi
Quoting 430. washingtonian115:
I just thought everyone take one of these before I officially leave for the night..

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433. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


landfall near Toyohashi Aichi Prefecture
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45283
Quoting 424. pcola57:




Doug and stormpetrol,I'll never forget Ivan..




Hurricaine Ivan was a True Cape Verde storm born September 2, 2004 at 9.7 Lat. and 27.6 Long...
The storm lasted from Sept. 2, 2004 to September 24..
It set many records still standing to this day..
It was the most southerly storm in history to reach both Cat.3 and 4 at 10.3 Lat and 48.6 Long..
Then a day later Ivan became the first ever Cat. 5 at that 10.5 Lat. and 51 Longitude..
It spent 12 of it's 22 days of life as a Cat.4/ 5..


I will never forget Ivan either, still haunts me to this day, hung over Grand Cayman for about 36 hours with winds gusting to over 200mph, it is the only Hurricane to regain Cat 5 status 3 times other the Hurricane Allan 1980, I think that's the correct year if remember correctly.
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Quoting 430. washingtonian115:
I just thought everyone take one of these before I officially leave for the night..


Could you throw a Bloody Mary in there?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
I just thought everyone take one of these before I officially leave for the night..
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428. VR46L
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Quoting 413. stormpetrol:
Time: 23:30:30Z
Coordinates: 23.1N 95.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.8 mb (~ 24.92 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,451 meters (~ 4,760 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 124° at 69 knots (From the ESE/SE at ~ 79.3 mph)
Air Temp: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Dew Pt: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 knots (~ 83.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 28 mm/hr (~ 1.10 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


While Ingrid ponders landfall way West, she is about 150 miles from the TX/MX border. Avila said she was supposed to fall at 23oN.
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Eye feature coming into view now from Brownsville radar:

Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 438
Quoting 412. PensacolaDoug:


9 years ago at this moment the wind was really starting to crank here next to Pensacola NAS as IVAN was approaching.

That was definitely P'cola's "Big One." Although a lot of people remember Ivan for the storm surge, the winds were very bad in the city as well.

Me and my family had moved away from our house in the Ft. Walton Beach area just a few months earlier. It was that dreading feel when Ivan entered the Gulf as a Cat. 5 and hour by hour as it got closer and closer. Our renters, who were from up north, were nervous about the storm hitting, although the damage wasn't as bad farther to the East than Pensacola.

Not something I would quite expect to see the rest of this year..
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Quoting 412. PensacolaDoug:


9 years ago at this moment the wind was really starting to crank here next to Pensacola NAS as IVAN was approaching.


Quoting 419. stormpetrol:


Sept 11-12 was the 9 year anniversary for us Ivan was a very powerful underestimated hurricane in my opinion, very destructive.


Doug and stormpetrol,I'll never forget Ivan..




Hurricaine Ivan was a True Cape Verde storm born September 2, 2004 at 9.7 Lat. and 27.6 Long...
The storm lasted from Sept. 2, 2004 to September 24..
It set many records still standing to this day..
It was the most southerly storm in history to reach both Cat.3 and 4 at 10.3 Lat and 48.6 Long..
Then a day later Ivan became the first ever Cat. 5 at that 10.5 Lat. and 51 Longitude..
It spent 12 of it's 22 days of life as a Cat.4/ 5..
According to the Grenadian Parliament 85% of the island nation was devastated..
Ivan broke several hydrological records; it is credited with possibly causing the largest ocean wave ever recorded, a 91 foot (27 meter) wave that may have been as high as 131 ft (40 m), and the fastest seafloor current, at 2.25 m/s (5 mph)

32 deaths in the US..Making a storm total of 121..

Ivan produced a record 119 tornados during landfall..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6819


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Well everyone, have fun with Ingrid. There was a car accident that hit a pole on the side of the road that caused a gas leak, plus my cable and internet are connected to the same line so I don't have cable or internet. Right now I am using my phone's personal hotspot to be on here but I need to charge my phone :p Night everybody
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420. vis0

CREDIT:NASA water Vapor (used my x3WV
filter, not a NASA product.)

SUBJECT:Ingrid
& Manuel 201309-15;0645_;2145 Click for VID.
ALT.
Title (Ingrid & Manuel no-Si-No-si-CallMeMaybe) for Natures' Entertainment only, FLOODING is a serious matter,
causing through drowning the most weather related deaths in the world.
click on play bar at vidmeup if VID is stuck.

Yellow NASA LOGO
indicates missing/bad frames i excluded, take into account not a
natural progression jump.




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Quoting 412. PensacolaDoug:


9 years ago at this moment the wind was really starting to crank here next to Pensacola NAS as IVAN was approaching.


Sept 11-12 was the 9 year anniversary for us Ivan was a very powerful underestimated hurricane in my opinion, very destructive.
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Looks like Manuel and Ingrid are going to continue to feed the moisture plume over the southwest bring more flooding to New Mexico and Colorado.
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417. VR46L
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416. beell
Quoting 411. TylerStanfield:
Recon Data and Center fixes still suggest that Ingrid has resumed a more Northwest movement, instead of Westward. Will be interesting to see how long she continues this Northwesterly movement before turning do West in the face of the ridge.


This is where the turn was supposed to occur. Along 23N.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16591
Quoting 403. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've heard that before but it doesn't make any sense to me. If we threw out all the data with a rain rate over 1", we wouldn't have anything for the eyewalls of major hurricanes. I think the data is fine as long as flight-level winds are greater than those at the surface.


Yeah I just made a comment about the same thing, and you're right, it doesn't make sense. Rain contaminated in reality simply refers to flying through a region that has an enhanced spike in winds due to convective enhancement. However, its typically in a certain localized portion of a convective band/cell, not the entire complex. Thus, its not that heavy rainfall always leads to "contaminated reports" or otherwise it would be almost impossible to accurately attain measurements in organized hurricanes and tropical storms.

Instead certain regions within convection can lead to enhancement due simply from convection not directly related to additional deepening of the low pressure center itself.


This is a pretty simple concept, after all, whether its a squall line in a cold front, a squall line in a hurricane, or an afternoon sea breeze thunderstorm, certain localized regions of such convection will have enhanced areas of stronger winds. Obviously this is in the downdraft region which of course is associated with precip loading and microburst, which is why the relation between suspect data and heavy rainfall.
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Quoting 405. hurricanes2018:
big news in Miami,fl
Tannehill outduels Luck in Dolphins win
Andrew Luck might be the No. 1 pick of last season's draft class, but Ryan Tannehill got the better of him on Sunday as the Dolphins beat the Colts.

the Dolphins are 2 and 0 something funny happern in Miami,fl its look like the tropical storm and the hurricane coming together on land..


GO FISH!
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Time: 23:30:30Z
Coordinates: 23.1N 95.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.8 mb (~ 24.92 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,451 meters (~ 4,760 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 124° at 69 knots (From the ESE/SE at ~ 79.3 mph)
Air Temp: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Dew Pt: 18.2°C (~ 64.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 73 knots (~ 83.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 28 mm/hr (~ 1.10 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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9 years ago at this moment the wind was really starting to crank here next to Pensacola NAS as IVAN was approaching.
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Recon Data and Center fixes still suggest that Ingrid has resumed a more Northwest movement, instead of Westward. Will be interesting to see how long she continues this Northwesterly movement before turning due West in the face of the ridge.
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A NOAA dropsonde brough back 77mph winds so that means Ingrid is a hurricane now.

Edit- And it looks like that 78mph reading from the AF plane was good as it is in the vortex message.

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)
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Quoting 401. MAweatherboy1:

The rain rate was over 1" per hour on that reading, doesn't that make it invalid?


Not necessarily, it depends on context. Rainfall wind reports from hurricane hunter aircraft that are considered contaminated are simply if they are believed to be convective enhanced. However It doesn't mean that a report in rainfall is always contaminated. I mean, the more organized a system is, that harder it will be to avoid deep convection. Flying in a strong hurricane is almost always going to require flying in a region of torrential rain while in the core.
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More BOC trash coming!.Where is the excitement/originality and suspense this season?.I just haven't been feeling this season at all.It feels redundant.Well I'm off to go do more exciting things than watch the weather in the tropics literally be stuck on replay.
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Quoting 404. TylerStanfield:

Pressure is about 989MB, and recon did bust through a small pocket in Ingrid's Northeast quadrant that contained winds of 75-80 Mph. Quite possibly a Hurricane once again, but I did however doubt she was one early today.


Agreed. I think she was a 60-65 MPH TS earlier this morning.

She's just getting her act together over the past couple hours to intensify back into a hurricane.
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
406. SLU
7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 15
Location: 22.9°N 96.1°W
Moving: NW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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big news in Miami,fl
Tannehill outduels Luck in Dolphins win
Andrew Luck might be the No. 1 pick of last season's draft class, but Ryan Tannehill got the better of him on Sunday as the Dolphins beat the Colts.

the Dolphins are 2 and 0 something funny happern in Miami,fl its look like the tropical storm and the hurricane coming together on land..
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Quoting 395. MAweatherboy1:
The Air Force recon plane just made its first pass through Ingrid's center, pressure was about 989-990mb, winds looked to be about 65mph, though there were higher readings that had high rain rates. I doubt Ingrid has been a hurricane for most of today.

Pressure is about 989MB, and recon did bust through a small pocket in Ingrid's Northeast quadrant that contained winds of 75-80 Mph. Quite possibly a Hurricane once again, but I did however doubt she was one early today.
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Quoting 401. MAweatherboy1:

The rain rate was over 1" per hour on that reading, doesn't that make it invalid?

I've heard that before but it doesn't make any sense to me. If we threw out all the data with a rain rate over 1", we wouldn't have anything for the eyewalls of major hurricanes. I think the data is fine as long as flight-level winds are greater than those at the surface.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001



Quiet severe weather day overall across the U.S. except a few severe cells in FL and 1 in KS.


Honestly, I think the SPC should include flooding reports as a severe report into the mix. I mean, its not like reports necessarily define severe weather. I've experienced severe weather events with no official reports either because the severe weather didn't do damage or just because there are no official report.
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Quoting 398. TropicalAnalystwx13:
989 mb pressure, 73kt flight-level winds with 68kt surface winds from AF303. Ingrid is a hurricane again after probably losing the status this morning.

The rain rate was over 1" per hour on that reading, doesn't that make it invalid?
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 104.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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989 mb pressure, 73kt flight-level winds with 68kt surface winds from AF303. Ingrid is a hurricane again after probably losing the status this morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
As of present time, and in pathetic recollection, the 2013 Hurricane Season has the Second Least Accumulated Cyclone Energy recorded in the Atlantic Basin on record, only 1983 had a lower ACE of 17.


9 Named Storms (Slightly Above Average)
2 Hurricanes (Below Average)
0 Major Hurricanes (Below Average)
21.01 ACE (Well Below Average)

So yes, as of September 15, the 2013 Hurricane Season is considered a below average season.

Going to be an agonizing rest of the Hurricane Season as we see the likelihood of a Major Hurricane begin to decrease.
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396. SLU
2013 - the year of the BOC cyclone.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
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The Air Force recon plane just made its first pass through Ingrid's center, pressure was about 989-990mb, winds looked to be about 65mph, though there were higher readings that had high rain rates. I doubt Ingrid has been a hurricane for most of today.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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