Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

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Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

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495. Pipejazz
1:07 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
test
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 160
494. GeoffreyWPB
1:07 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 488. victoria780:
whats your reasoning chicklit or just post another picture


Nothing is going to take Ingrid north. Sometimes it is what it is.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
493. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:06 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
The 12z ECMWF had a digging negatively-tilted trough over the Great Lakes with a blocking high over the Maritimes and a hybrid cyclone a bit offshore the coast of North Carolina.

Wonder when the last time we've seen that was...

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
492. SFLWeatherLady
1:06 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.

Glad your son is doing well and that he didn't have to do open heart surgery! :-)
Member Since: June 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
491. VAbeachhurricanes
1:05 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
AL, 94, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 270N, 416W, 35, 1008, LO
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5695
490. wunderkidcayman
1:04 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 483. stormpetrol:


These aircrafts tend to measure millibars and knots within 1-3 mbs or knts of each other, the 990 mb compared to 987mb measured by the other aircraft is of little or no significance , also of note this aircraft is finding higher winds despite the rise in mbs.

Yep I think Ingrid may RI until landfall and I think landfall will be further N as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
489. CaneHunter031472
1:03 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
488. victoria780
1:03 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 484. Chicklit:

we are wishcasting this is the case
whats your reasoning chicklit or just post another picture
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
487. GetReal
1:03 AM GMT on September 16, 2013



Getting closer to you Texas... I hope that this is not a tease!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
486. wunderkidcayman
1:02 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 479. sar2401:

What NW Caribbean AOI are you talking about? I don't see on on the Navy site.

Our AOI it's not labeled as INVEST yet on ATCF or NAVY and another thing I don't trust navy too much anyway Boo NAVY yay MARINES lol

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
485. GetReal
1:01 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
484. Chicklit
1:01 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 482. victoria780:
Maybe another trough digging in from the north is weakening the ridge to allow Ingrid to move more north then anticipated?

we are wishcasting this is the case
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
483. stormpetrol
1:00 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 472. HurricaneCamille:
Pressure up to 990? Doesn't appear to be taking advantage of the fact that shear has dropped significantly.


These aircrafts tend to measure millibars and knots within 1-3 mbs or knts of each other, the 990 mb compared to 987mb measured by the other aircraft is of little or no significance , also of note this aircraft is finding higher winds despite the rise in mbs.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
482. victoria780
12:59 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 476. StormMan:


If you pull up the WV loop you can see Manuel racing practically due north and the very visible consequential impact on Ingrid, making Ingrid look like it hit a wall on its left flank and is now growing northward. And, watching the wunderground "40 frame" loop of the 248nm radar you can see the eyewall feature pausing and then moving also practically due north, very important development.

Could you image both cyclones invading Texas and the resulting bountiful precipitation harvest? To dream!

And as both continue to progress across the CONUS what impacts, early cold? Deeper south frontal passages?

Time will tell, but, most excellent observation theyoungmet
Maybe another trough digging in from the north is weakening the ridge to allow Ingrid to move more north then anticipated?
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 326
481. wunderkidcayman
12:59 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 478. GeoffreyWPB:


Another piece of the puzzle! :)

Lol NO not so
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
480. CaneHunter031472
12:58 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


He's in our prayers.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 163
479. sar2401
12:58 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey stormpetrol yeah up to this day I still remember Hurricane Ivan like it was yesterday

On other note NW Carib AOI very interesting

What NW Caribbean AOI are you talking about? I don't see on on the Navy site.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 9787
478. GeoffreyWPB
12:56 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 477. wunderkidcayman:

Please don't tell me to take a coors light I had too much of that this morning


Another piece of the puzzle! :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
477. wunderkidcayman
12:55 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 466. GeoffreyWPB:


Would that move it closer to "you"? A Coors Light clink! :)

Please don't tell me to take a coors light I had too much of that this morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
476. StormMan
12:55 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 439. theyoungmet:
WOW! Manuel with the surprise of the day, by moving substantially more inland than forecasted, and I mean seriously more inland, look at the picture I attached below. This will have a big effect on Ingrid's future track. If you go on the latest satellite imagery, you can see Manuel's shear size pushing Ingrid's convective field to the eastward slightly. Over the last three hours, Ingrid has moved away from her forecast point in a more NE direction. As you can also see below, the green dot is her current center and below that is her forecast point for this same time period(NHC). I wouldn't call this a wobble either, because it is due to Manuel's westward movement. If he continues inland, you could see Ingrid get pushed more northward. Mexico still seems to be her target, but she is getting closer to Texas than originally projected. Interesting.



If you pull up the WV loop you can see Manuel racing practically due north and the very visible consequential impact on Ingrid, making Ingrid look like it hit a wall on its left flank and is now growing northward. And, watching the wunderground "40 frame" loop of the 248nm radar you can see the eyewall feature pausing and then moving also practically due north, very important development.

Could you image both cyclones invading Texas and the resulting bountiful precipitation harvest? To dream!

And as both continue to progress across the CONUS what impacts, early cold? Deeper south frontal passages?

Time will tell, but, most excellent observation theyoungmet



Member Since: August 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
475. YUCATANCHICXULUB
12:55 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 459. GetReal:

Looks like a slow NNW movement.



look like is going to the frontier
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
474. Chicklit
12:54 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
While Texans pray for rain more bad news from Colorado...Some 1,500 homes have been destroyed and about 17,500 have been damaged, according to an initial estimate released by the Colorado Office of Emergency Management.

Some people just don't know what's come of their relatives. A Dallas man saw a photo of his mother's Big Thompson Canyon home in ruins on a Denver TV website. "I don't know that she's even OK," Rob Clements told The Coloradoan about his mother, Libby Orr, 73, with whom he last spoke on Thursday. "I presume she is. But her house, if not completely gone, fell into the river and is most of the way gone."


Link USA Today Minutes Ago
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
473. mitthbevnuruodo
12:54 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


All my heart aislinn..nothing worse than dealing with pain with our children <3
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 828
472. HurricaneCamille
12:54 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Pressure up to 990? Doesn't appear to be taking advantage of the fact that shear has dropped significantly.
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 299
471. redwagon
12:53 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 457. GetReal:


Stalled???


She just executed the loop all the models called for. It was a tiny loop, maybe 1 degree a 360, but after a loop a storm stalls until it gets its tractional bearings back into gear.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2798
470. wunderkidcayman
12:53 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 457. GetReal:


Stalled???

Yeah stalled MIMIC image

In RECON news
NASA Global Hawk has just finished its mission
NOAA P-3D is flying back in for another pass
USAF WC-130J has passed through the LLCOC and is finding a lot of stronger winds on NW quad

Quoting 458. luvtogolf:


ENE? Please post the steering currents that would move it in that direction. NHC says West over the Yucatan and into the BOC.

For now but if it remain weak and stalled then it may change
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
469. miguel617
12:53 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
NW at 3MPH.
Member Since: January 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
468. YUCATANCHICXULUB
12:53 AM GMT on September 16, 2013



is going to north?
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 130
467. fireflymom
12:52 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Alinis-so happy to hear the surgery went well and was less physically damaging than the old open heart methods. Yay for it being past history and hoping for rapid healing for him and I bet going back to teaching will seem a little easier than awaiting surgical out comes. Missed you fancy breakfasts too.
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 573
466. GeoffreyWPB
12:51 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 440. stormpetrol:


Very interesting, but I'm thinking this AOI might move ENE


Would that move it closer to "you"? A Coors Light clink! :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10578
465. Tazmanian
12:51 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Crownpoint dam expected to break


According to law enforcement, a dam in Crownpoint is expected to break sometime between 6:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. on Sunday evening.

When the dam fails a flash flood is expected to impact low laying areas of Crownpoint.

This area includes the Indian Health Service Hospital.

An evacuation is in progress and people in the area should seek higher ground immediately



Link



back too lurking
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114051
464. Skyepony (Mod)
12:50 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Nearly 500 unaccounted for in the CO floods.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36075
463. Tropicsweatherpr
12:49 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13290
462. Badmonkey82009
12:49 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 443. ihave27windows:


Over Macho Grande?


I'll never be over macho grande
Member Since: June 26, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
461. dis1322
12:48 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
BrownsvilleISD just cancel school for tomorrow due to Ingrid
Member Since: May 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
460. Skyepony (Mod)
12:47 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36075
459. GetReal
12:46 AM GMT on September 16, 2013

Looks like a slow NNW movement.

Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
458. luvtogolf
12:45 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 440. stormpetrol:


Very interesting, but I'm thinking this AOI might move ENE


ENE? Please post the steering currents that would move it in that direction. NHC says West over the Yucatan and into the BOC.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 886
457. GetReal
12:42 AM GMT on September 16, 2013


Stalled???
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
456. redwagon
12:42 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 448. theyoungmet:

To those in texas that need it, those inches mean everything.


They mean the world. Literally, our world.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2798
455. BahaHurican
12:41 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 311. FunnelVortex:


Active? HAHAHAHAHAHA
Numberwise the season could end up anywhere from average to above average.

Quoting 349. wxgeek723:


Quality over quantity my friend.
Not according to the forecast groups. # of NS is the first game out there.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20695
454. theyoungmet
12:38 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.

Good luck to him, and I am glad he is doing better!
Member Since: July 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
453. islander44
12:38 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


Best of luck with your son's health issues, Aislinnpaps. Our thoughts are with you...even if you didn't regale us with magnificent menus.
Member Since: June 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
452. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:37 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
WHO DAT!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
451. pcola57
12:37 AM GMT on September 16, 2013
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


Your a trooper aisln..
Gods speed Zander..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6641
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


Glad to hear he is doing well. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 447. redwagon:

She surely is inching closer to TX despite her forecasted tracks and discussions.

To those in texas that need it, those inches mean everything.
Member Since: July 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
Quoting 439. theyoungmet:
WOW! Manuel with the surprise of the day, by moving substantially more inland than foretasted, and I mean seriously more inland, look at the picture I attached below. This will have a big effect on Ingrid's future track. If you go on the latest satellite imagery, you can see Manuel's shear size pushing Ingrid's convective field to the eastward slightly. Over the last three hours, Ingrid has moved away from her forecast point in a more NE direction. As you can also see below, the green dot is her current center and below that is her forecast point for this same time period(NHC). I wouldn't call this a wobble either, because it is due to Manuel's westward movement. If he continues inland, you could see Ingrid get pushed more northward. Mexico still seems to be her target, but she is getting closer to Texas than originally projected. Interesting.






She surely is inching closer to TX despite her forecasted tracks and discussions.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2798
Quoting 443. ihave27windows:


Over Macho Grande?

???
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9557
Quoting 431. GeoffreyWPB:


Could you throw a Bloody Mary in there?



picky, picky...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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