Boulder's 1-in-100 Year Flood Diminishing; Ingrid a Dangerous Flood Threat for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:43 PM GMT on September 13, 2013

Share this Blog
60
+

Colorado's epic deluge is finally winding down, as a trough of low pressure moves across the state and pushes out the moist, tropical airmass that has brought record-breaking rainfall amounts and flooding. Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least three people. The flood that swept down Boulder Creek into Boulder, Colorado was a 1-in-100 year event, said the U.S. Geological Survey. A flash flood watch continues through noon Friday in Boulder. According to the National Weather Service, Boulder's total 3-day rainfall as of Thursday night was 12.30". Based on data from the NWS Precipitation Frequency Data Server, this was a greater than 1-in-1000 year rainfall event. The city's previous record rainfall for any month, going back to 1897, was 9.59", set in May 1995. Some other rainfall totals through Thursday night include 14.60" at Eldorado Springs, 11.88" at Aurora, and 9.08" at Colorado Springs. These are the sort of rains one expects on the coast in a tropical storm, not in the interior of North America! The rains were due to a strong, slow-moving upper level low pressure system to the west of Colorado that got trapped to the south of an unusually strong ridge of high pressure over Western Canada. This is the same sort of odd atmospheric flow pattern that led to the most expensive flood disaster in Canadian history, the $5.3 billion Calgary flood of mid-June this summer. The upper-level low responsible for this week's Colorado flood drove a southeasterly flow of extremely moist tropical air from Mexico that pushed up against the mountains and was lifted over a stationary front draped over the mountains. As the air flowed uphill and over the front, it expanded and cooled, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver this morning continued to show levels of September moisture among the highest on record for the station, as measured by the total Precipitable Water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed. Four of the top eight all-time September highs for Precipitable Water since records began in 1948 have been recorded over the past two days:

1.33" 12Z September 12, 2013
1.31" 00Z September 12, 2013
1.24" 12Z September 13, 2013
1.23" 12Z September 10, 1980
1.22" 00Z September 2, 1997
1.21" 00Z September 7, 2002
1.20" 00Z September 13, 2013

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this year's flood compares to previous Colorado floods in his latest post.

A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. A torrent of water rushes alongside a swamped house following flash flooding near Left Hand Canyon, south of Lyons, Colo., Sept 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Brennan Linsley)



Figure 2. Observed rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 13 rain event. Rainfall amounts greater than 10" (pink colors) were indicated near Boulder. Image credit: NWS Denver.

Tropical Storm Ingrid a Dangerous Rainfall Threat for Mexico
Tropical Storm Ingrid, the ninth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, has formed in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Ingrid is the most dangerous Atlantic tropical cyclone of 2013 thus far, due to its rainfall potential. Ingrid is embedded in an exceptionally moist environment, and is already bringing heavy rains to the Mexican coast in Veracruz state, as seen on Mexican radar. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is not well-organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. However, the Friday morning hurricane hunter mission found 45 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade Ingrid. Moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is interfering with development, but ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F).


Figure 3. Percent chance of receiving more than 16" of rain during a five day period, from the Friday 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model for Tropical Storm Ingrid. More than 16" of rain are predicted for the Oaxaca and Tampico areas of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Forecast for Ingrid
The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and it won't take much additional rain to generate dangerous flash floods and mudslides. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If Ingrid intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. Ninety-E represents a threat to develop into a tropical depression in its own right; in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 70% for the disturbance, and predicted a north to northwest motion of the storm towards the coast. This morning's 2 am EDT run of the experimental GFDL ensemble model predicted that a some areas of Mexico are at high risk of 16+ inches of rain due to the combined effects of Ingrid and 90E. The greatest danger is on the Pacific side in Oaxaca state, where the combined effects of the circulations of Ingrid and 90E will pull a flow of very moist air upwards over the mountains, creating torrential rains. All of the models predict a west-northwest to northwest track for Ingrid into Mexico, but heavy rains of 2 - 4" may also affect extreme South Texas by early next week.

Today is the 25th anniversary of the intensification of Hurricane Gilbert into the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic (at the time.) I was on the hurricane hunter flight into Gilbert that day, and will be posted an account of the mission later today.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1238 - 1188

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Air Force gradually lowering altitude:
10:39:30Z 22.067N 92.650W 465.6 mb
(~ 13.75 inHg) 6,383 meters
(~ 20,942 feet)
10:49:00Z 21.533N 93.183W 691.6 mb
(~ 20.42 inHg) 3,203 meters
(~ 10,509 feet)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As of the last observation at 10:49:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SW (223)
Location: 208 miles (334 km) between the WNW and NW (304) from Campeche, Campeche, Mxico.

They're penetrating Ingrid right now.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting 1233. skycycle:
Looks like the first recon found some 60kt+ winds in Ingrid, and by the satellite images we've been getting it seems it will get upgraded to at least a 70mph storm in the next advisory, if not straight to a minimal hurricane... not a good situation for Veracruz state at all, and yet another reminder of the BOC's knack for spinning up storms in a jiffy

Well, they didn't find surface winds of 60 kt yet, just below 50 kt at best. Recon should find some higher winds soon, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Winds not mixing well down to the surface, larger than normal dropoff from ~950 mb to surface


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As of the last observation at 10:39:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: WSW (242°)
Location: 206 miles (332 km) to the NW (319°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Looks like the first recon found some 60kt+ winds in Ingrid, and by the satellite images we've been getting it seems it will get upgraded to at least a 70mph storm in the next advisory, if not straight to a minimal hurricane... not a good situation for Veracruz state at all, and yet another reminder of the BOC's knack for spinning up storms in a jiffy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 10:23:30Z
Coordinates: 19.7N 94.4W
Acft. Static Air Press: 698.0 mb (~ 20.61 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,076 meters (~ 10,092 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.8 mb (~ 29.44 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 238 at 61 knots (From the WSW at ~ 70.1 mph)
Air Temp: 9.9C* (~ 49.8F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1217. Bobbyweather:

I'm worried about Mexico... Two tropical storms from opposite coasts.
And two slow moving storms at that. Manuel is nearly stationary.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Quoting 1187. hurricanehanna:
Link

MIMIC showing a strengthening Ingrid
Ah, is that an eye wall I see forming?-I believe so! If so, I saw first. :)
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
If the EURO and GFS are hinting at more development in the BOC....thats probably another storm for MX and no rain for TX again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1217. Bobbyweather:

I'm worried about Mexico... Two tropical storms from opposite coasts.
Dont look like the Hurricane Center has much confidence in the models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Aha!
987.7 mb
(~ 29.17 inHg)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting interstatelover7165:
As of the last observation at 10:19:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SSW (205°)
Location: 398 miles (641 km) to the ESE (114°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.


As of the last observation at 10:23:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: NW (317°)
Location: 150 miles (242 km) to the NW (321°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW!!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's no way in hell Ingrid's winds are 35kt but its pressure 990 and its CI# 4.0, IMO.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
Previous Recon windfield



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Latest HDOB data:
46.3 knots (~ 53.2 mph)
Tropical Storm

997.0 mb
(~ 29.44 inHg)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As of the last observation at 10:19:00Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: SSW (205°)
Location: 398 miles (641 km) to the ESE (114°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 994
Quoting 1181. redwagon:


I came to realize the MJO was a bad thing, lifting up the troposhere with nothing but dry air. That model needs some tweaking, it's only apparently productive when ATL is moist.
Look up Hurricane Bret 1999 same location ,same possible track
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1218. centex:
990 and 34kt winds?

Well, the surface wind speeds could be estimated. The recon probably didn't measure the exact wind speed of Ingrid yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1218. centex
990 and 34kt winds?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

I'm worried about Mexico... Two tropical storms from opposite coasts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 10:11Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2013
Storm Name: Ingrid (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 9:32:44Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°01'N 94°43'W (20.0167N 94.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 183 miles (294 km) to the NW (320°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,012m (9,882ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the N (353°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 33kts (From the NE at ~ 38.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (305°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) which was observed 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the SW (217°) from the flight level center at 9:39:33Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BANDING SOUTH EAST NORTH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Did the first plane turn back?


Mission 6 is in Ingrid and mission 7 is on it's way.

Check #1208
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. centex
It does not seem right that the models are split and the GFS ensemble has no northern solutions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GN Civicane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see a 2nd plane halfway there again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Did the first plane turn back?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Will be interesting to see what recon finds.

Heading out for the night. Later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mission 6 NOAA42 (Kermit) WP-3D Orion is in Ingrid Now.

Mission 7 AF307 Air Force WC-130J is on it's way.



The next few hours we will know whats going on inside TS Ingrid
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1206. barbamz

Total precipital water: BOC now dark read with whirling moisture. Click to enlarge.


Same on the EPAC side. Click to enlarge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2013SEP14 091500 4.1 981.2 67.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -68.36 -68.21 UNIFRM N/A N/A 19.73 95.19 FCST GOES13 32.6
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1202. barbamz

Lyons, Colorado (more see gallery in link below)

Flood-weary Colorado awaits more rain; 172 people remain unaccounted for
By Ben Brumfield and George Howell, CNN
September 14, 2013 -- Updated 0912 GMT (1712 HKT)

Boulder, Colorado (CNN) -- As furious waters flow through flood-devastated northern Colorado, fears and tales of devastation grow.

At least four people have been killed and 172 are unaccounted for, officials say.

The nightmare is far from over as the state awaits more rainfall Saturday, threatening to send swollen rivers gushing through streets choked with debris. The rain is expected to come down heavy Sunday.

It will not be as much as the 15 inches dumped in some spots this week, but it could cause more flooding in areas where water has already receded, forecasters warned.

Residents got some relief Friday when rains subsided, giving a clear view of towns turned into abrupt lakes, homes and businesses inundated with muddy water and bridges devoured by raging creeks. Homes dangled off cliffs.

Rescuers have retrieved the bodies of the four who died in the waters. Many more people are cut off by devastated roadways, and authorities don't know how long it will take to reach them. ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1201. barbamz
Good morning from rainy Germany. Hate to read the below roundup from Reuters about Colorado flooding. It really resembles our "European flooding" earlier this year now.


Flood rescues continue as Colorado braces for more rain
By Keith Coffman, DENVER | Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:04am EDT
(Reuters) - More heavy rain is expected on Saturday in Colorado where rescue workers are battling to reach residents cut off by the worst floods in decades, which have killed at least four people and left 172 still unaccounted for ...
Read more with link above (including photo gallery)

Nevertheless, here's another sunny webcam from Barcelona harbour for you, soon to be Spain-traveller Gator-Josh :)



European satellite (saved image):
Strip of clear sky over northern Spain. Huge storm heading towards UK:

Source
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Impressed with Ingrid this morning. Like to see what recon finds.

I'll be back later. It's opening morning for bow season :)
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 2072
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WESTWARD FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...MANUEL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON ITS APPROACH TO MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1197. GatorWX


Looking alright. Back to bed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS
ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS
EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.

MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL
THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER
THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED
A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM
THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
TRANSIENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS
CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE
ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH
MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE
GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH
OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW
FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 22.2N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 22.4N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
72H 17/0600Z 22.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013

HUMBERTO IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN
SOON IT WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. EVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO LACKS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IT
CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND IT IS LIKELY STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT...ASSUMING A SPIN DOWN FROM THE
EARLIER ASCAT DATA.

STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING HUMBERTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THAT TIME. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE BY MONDAY...AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW
HUMBERTO GAINING STRENGTH IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SOME OF THE EXPECTED
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE TROUGH
INTERACTION.

THE STORM IS ON A WESTWARD PATH...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 275/8. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS
FORECAST WHEN THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE IN ABOUT 4
DAYS WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS
OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE RECURVATURE STAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST
AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THOSE MODELS AND LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 25.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.3N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 27.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 28.1N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 30.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 33.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 37.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 95.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning

area 10N 47W is an interesting AOI. there is all the ingredients except for vorticity. there is hint of a pre existing spin and this area should be watch for a surprise. BBL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1189. vis0

CREDIT:NOAA

Choose WV &/or DVN clickForVID if stuck click on playbar at vidmeup:

201309-13;2345_-14;0545
&/or 201309-13;2315_-14;0615
respectively.




Ingrid gets
Montezuma's revenge? Hey
at least i did not add any sound FX, being
that is my expertise,
S(o)UNDFX.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1158. GrandCaymanMed:
It appears that Ingrid has spit out a blob into the Western Caribbean in response to attempted Fujiwaring by TS Manuel in the Pacific. If the Caribbean blob persists, could there be a 3-way Fujiwara effect?


I was just looking at that unidentified blob myself and am wondering if it has any potential to develop?!
My mother recently came to live with us and her name is Jerry so I feel there is a better than good chance for that Jerry J storm to hit Jamrock this year but what do I know...LOL?!?!?!
I just tucked her in after a Rummy 500 marathon involving quite a bit of beer, wine, vodka and tequila so I am off to bed now myself but am still wondering about that mysterious blob that seems to be forming pretty close to where Sandy started last year...what do you all think?!
BTW My mom's given name truly is Jerry and her nickname is Jake: my grandfather was hoping for a boy after her 3 older sisters...LOL!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1238 - 1188

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
62 °F
Overcast