Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Quoting 1540. IKE:

2m
Does this look like it should have been downgraded? Seriously, center under monster blowup. I wouldnt have
Yes, Joey, it looks like it should have been downgraded. Seriously. As the NHC noted, that "monster blowup" exhibits no telltale banding, and ASCAT found no winds above about 30 knots. IOW, it was downgraded from a tropical storm because it no longer is a tropical storm, not because the NHC isn't aware of things that Bastardi believes himself to know.

As has been said before, JB should leave the heavy duty meteorological analyses to the educated and experienced grownups, and stick to forecasting daytime highs in State College...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13508
1548. beell
Well after TD 10 moves ashore, the moisture should continue to wrap around the western periphery of the steering ridge.


09/13 06Z GFS Accumulated Precipitation @ 120 hrs.
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1547. SLU
My early-April ACE forecast for 2013 of 130 - 190 units is going to BUST.

ACE to date (2013): 16.785

ACE to date (1981-2010 Climatology): 56

September 28th.

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Quoting 1543. GatorWX:


Denver is also backed up against a mountain range, orographic lift.



And 5000 feet higher than Florida.
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1545. GatorWX
Gabs,

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1543. GatorWX
Quoting 1538. Jedkins01:
It's interesting how atmospheric moisture is very relative to location just like instability.

Dr. Masters mention the PW was at a record 1.33 when the previous was 1.23. This is funny, because 1.33 while relatively moist for the Denver area, is actually a pretty dry air mass around here. In fact, the PW was around 1.4 lately and the NWS has been mentioning that its drier than usual, and it IS, it has felt nice lately, and very little cloud growth.


In fact, that same level of moisture there in September would struggle to produce scattered clouds here in September in Florida, much less rainfall. Mountains, relatively higher terrain as a whole, and colder air aloft make all the difference.

I think the record PW here is greater than 2.75 :)


Denver is also backed up against a mountain range, orographic lift.

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1542. VR46L
Quoting 1541. IKE:

I get you....just speaking the truth though.




It sure is the truth though that you both are speaking ....

Ya can dress up the 8 storms as much as you like but for a season that was supposed to be one of the worst predicted its a damp Squib ...
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1541. IKE

Quoting washingtonian115:
Shh.If your not hyping then your not adding constructive criticism to the blog!.Didn't you get the memo?.lol.
I get you....just speaking the truth though.


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1540. IKE

2m
Does this look like it should have been downgraded? Seriously, center under monster blowup. I wouldnt have
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Quoting 1522. IKE:
Looks like after Ingrid/TD 10.....things slow down in the ATL.
Shh.If your not hyping then your not adding constructive criticism to the blog!.Didn't you get the memo?.lol.
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It's interesting how atmospheric moisture is very relative to location just like instability.

Dr. Masters mention the PW was at a record 1.33 when the previous was 1.23. This is funny, because 1.33 while relatively moist for the Denver area, is actually a pretty dry air mass around here. In fact, the PW was around 1.4 lately and the NWS has been mentioning that its drier than usual, and it IS, it has felt nice lately, and very little cloud growth.


In fact, that same level of moisture there in September would struggle to produce scattered clouds here in September in Florida, much less rainfall. Mountains, relatively higher terrain as a whole, and colder air aloft make all the difference.

I think the record PW here is greater than 2.75 :)
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1537. GatorWX
Gabs on the other hand...



Still fighting!
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1536. Torito
TD 10 struggling to strengthen.

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Quoting 1525. Abacosurf:
Incredible water displacement storm.


One of the few times, aside from Hurricane Rita and the like, we caught red fish well inland on a local tributary.
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1534. GatorWX
...and good morning to everyone.

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1533. Torito
in the meantime, man-yi is looking better and better every hour.

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1532. GatorWX
10 is still 10 I see.



^Don't look great at the moment.



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1531. Torito
Ehh humberto looks like crap now. xD


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1530. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

Water Vapour LSU

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What's with the recon this morning.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2712
Quote from local forecast I thought was kinda funny. The high pressure or "dew point 10", is alive or something.

With dew point 10 forecasted to move northwest and
intensify...appears that tropical moisture will be on the increase.
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So Friggatriskaidekaphobia or Paraskevidekatriaphobia?
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TD 10
y u no ingrid?

It'll get there...hopefully
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Quoting 1521. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

Today marks the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Ike's landfall in Texas. It was the 3rd costliest hurricane in the U.S.
Ike was the only storm I have ever seen pass to our S and give us storm surge on the SW gulf coast of Fl. Usually when a storm passes to our south we actually have a lessening of water. Not the case with Ike. Even with stiff offshore winds the tide was 4 feet above mean tide with water filling the entire Naples Bay. The water then came out of the storm gutters and into the streets.
Incredible water displacement storm.
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God bless all of those involved in the floods of Colorado.

I'm going to post again what my old TV weatherman Bob McClain stated, mother nature has a way of evening things out.
Lake Mead and Lake Powell are way below normal water heights, unfortunately those water levels will rise, due to the current floods
Hate to see it happen this way.
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1523. bappit
Quoting 1521. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!

Today marks the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike's landfall in Texas. It was the 3rd costliest tropical cyclone in U.S history.

Nice picture of Ike turning north and sparing Galveston and Houston from much worse damage.
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1522. IKE
Looks like after Ingrid/TD 10.....things slow down in the ATL.
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Good morning everybody!

Today marks the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike's landfall in Texas. It caused $37.5 billion in damage, making it the 3rd costliest tropical cyclone in U.S. history.
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1520. beell
September 13, 2008
Ike was not a fish storm.

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Quoting 1517. stoormfury:
morning

a large area of cyclonic turning is evident a few hundred miles south of Hispanoila. This area is associated with an ULL, but there is also a strong mid level circulation. The area is located in an abundance of moisture and is moving WNW. Is this the area that the GFS ensembles are hinting of cyclogenesis the next 7 days.?

If it is...this may be a US gulf coast threat this time.
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1518. IKE
Friday the 13th.

Day 105 of the ATL season. 78 days to go.

Totals 8-1-0...plus another TD.
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morning

a large area of cyclonic turning is evident a few hundred miles south of Hispanoila. This area is associated with an ULL, but there is also a strong mid level circulation. The area is located in an abundance of moisture and is moving WNW. Is this the area that the GFS ensembles are hinting of cyclogenesis the next 7 days.?
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Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2712
Nothing like a dull, boring, blog to end my short episode of insomnia!. Now maybe I can finish out my sleep.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
30 KT FROM SAB. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED
ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS
PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS
SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...
WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE
TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. NONE
OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.6N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 23.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
GABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN
ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30
KT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN
INTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS
ONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA.
GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 36.5N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 40.5N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...GABRIELLE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

HUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO
HURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND
MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD
PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN
AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3
TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS.
THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 24.4N 30.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.2N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.1N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO LOSING STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 30.2W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING WESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1247. scott39:
TD 10 is less organized than it was earlier today due to 20nts of wind shear. Shear should become more favorable over the next 48 hours. An anticyclone should be in place also. Look for the ridge to weaken on about day 4. This should allow TD 10 to track farther N. I wouldnt be suprised to see a TX/LA landfall.

Id be VERY surprised if that did happen.
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Quoting 1505. sar2401:

Let me rephrase that. People who are listening here are not typical of the general listeners. They usually are reporting things that have been confirmed by the local EMA or USGS. The issue is when a unit gets a report that "A seven feet wall of water is coming down "X" canyon". This is just an ordinary citizen, reporting it to an ordinary first responder. As I said, it gets passed on to the command center until there's confirmation and a plan about how to deal with it. The people who were the 25 year ago the over the back fence gossips are the ones reporting "Seven foot wall of water coming down "X" canyon, confirmed by sheriff's radio!!!!". They post it on Facebook and Twitter, the media picks it up, and pretty soon 911 dispatch lights up wanting to know if their house is about to be washed away by that seven foot wall of water, which actually turns out to be about a food of debris flow. Nevertheless, it's now national news about that seven foot wall of water. That's what I meant by those outrageous rumors. If you were with us last year for Sandy, there were literally thousands of fake stories and hundreds of fake photos of Sandy and the aftermath, all of which takes up a lot of scarce time from the Public information section of the command staff to try to beat the rumors and fakes back down. I can certainly understand why you, as a hydrologist, would be interested in what you're hearing. If you're ever involved in an emergency situation as a team hydrologist, you'll really understand what I'm talking about when you hear the first news report of something attributed to you and you'll say "Hey, I never said that!. :-)

This is the kind of thing that makes agencies realize they can't take Twitter and Facebook out of the equation, but they can take away the ability of people to listen to radio transmissions and stream them on the internet. leading those gossips to report things they heard (or thought they heard) on social media. which is now an extension of mainstream media. It's just a matter fo time before no ordinary citizen will be listen to any emergency service radio, and we'll all be the poorer for it.


Thanks for the clarification-that makes quite a bit of sense. I guess I got a little touchy, sorry about that!

Following along both the feed, a local broadcast, and the NWS has been interesting hydrologically, but it's also been quite the geography lesson. The flooding is spread over quite a large area, much more than reporting on just the Boulder area would indicate.
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1506. vis0
CREDIT: NOAA (custom filtered, not a NOAA product)
SUBJECT: 93L 201309-13;0015_201309-13;0545Z
Click=VID UNOFFICIAL GUESS lower left quad of yellow circle
Was to leave WxU's comment area by choice.
To me WxU is very addictive, i'm gonna see if i can leave little by little,
Was only to fill in my last blog till it can't hold anymore on just 1 blog.
But i see areas i like to help in like filtering SAT LOOPS so here. The lower left quad of the yellow circle is my edumacated guezz.
WxU CLEANSING for me:
Step 1 of 3 just post SAT LOOP none of my science theory comments. Step in 2 weeks.
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1505. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Well, I'm not sure what 'outrageous rumors' you are referring to. Pretty much all items reported by bloggers here have been confirmed; if unconfirmed, the bloggers (myself included) have been good about acknowledging that. Everyone's done an excellent job of reporting and confirming factual information.

I don't do FB or Twitter, so I'm not sure how listening to emergency dispatch interact with emergency responders correlates to social media, as I really don't pay much attention to either.

I do take a bit of exception to "Everyone else is listening because it's exciting or it's media, freelancers, and storm chasers getting information to advance their business interests or their hobby." Personally, I am listening out of sheer interest. As a hydrologist, news regarding flooding events, of any kind, anywhere, interests me. This is all the more interesting as it is an event that is unfolding and on-going. Very similar to wunderbloggers gathering tropical weather information and reporting them on this blog.


Let me rephrase that. People who are listening here are not typical of the general listeners. They usually are reporting things that have been confirmed by the local EMA or USGS. The issue is when a unit gets a report that "A seven feet wall of water is coming down "X" canyon". This is just an ordinary citizen, reporting it to an ordinary first responder. As I said, it gets passed on to the command center until there's confirmation and a plan about how to deal with it. The people who were the 25 year ago the over the back fence gossips are the ones reporting "Seven foot wall of water coming down "X" canyon, confirmed by sheriff's radio!!!!". They post it on Facebook and Twitter, the media picks it up, and pretty soon 911 dispatch lights up wanting to know if their house is about to be washed away by that seven foot wall of water, which actually turns out to be about a food of debris flow. Nevertheless, it's now national news about that seven foot wall of water. That's what I meant by those outrageous rumors. If you were with us last year for Sandy, there were literally thousands of fake stories and hundreds of fake photos of Sandy and the aftermath, all of which takes up a lot of scarce time from the Public information section of the command staff to try to beat the rumors and fakes back down. I can certainly understand why you, as a hydrologist, would be interested in what you're hearing. If you're ever involved in an emergency situation as a team hydrologist, you'll really understand what I'm talking about when you hear the first news report of something attributed to you and you'll say "Hey, I never said that!. :-)

This is the kind of thing that makes agencies realize they can't take Twitter and Facebook out of the equation, but they can take away the ability of people to listen to radio transmissions and stream them on the internet. leading those gossips to report things they heard (or thought they heard) on social media. which is now an extension of mainstream media. It's just a matter fo time before no ordinary citizen will be listen to any emergency service radio, and we'll all be the poorer for it.
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1504. Walshy
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Down to 65 kts.

AL, 09, 2013091306, , BEST, 0, 241N, 298W, 65, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1011, 350, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1493. sar2401:

Listening to scanner is like a radio version of Twitter. A lot of information is passed along to emergency services by citizens, which has no way to confirm the traffic, so it gets posted in the command center and generally isn't acted upon until it's confirmed by a trained person with eyes on the situation or some official source, like a stream gauge or the USGS. Unfortunately, I was just looking at the scanner stream and there are almost 2,000 people listening, and a significant percentage are re-posting these unconfirmed reports to FB and Twitter. The media picks all this up and pretty soon, even the most outrageous rumors become true.

I wish these feeds didn't exist, because it's what's making many departments move to scrambling or unmonitorable radio systems. Boulder City and County have radio systems that any citizen in the local area can hear on $75 scanner. They are the ones that may be able use those scanner transmissions to help save their lives. Everyone else is listening because it's exciting or it's media, freelancers, and storm chasers getting information to advance their business interests or their hobby. Unfortunately, by the next time a disaster rolls around in Boulder, they may have a radio system no one can listen to, so we all lose, but especially the people who's lives and property is at risk.


Well, I'm not sure what 'outrageous rumors' you are referring to. Pretty much all items reported by bloggers here have been confirmed; if unconfirmed, the bloggers (myself included) have been good about acknowledging that. Everyone's done an excellent job of reporting and confirming factual information.

I don't do FB or Twitter, so I'm not sure how listening to emergency dispatch interact with emergency responders correlates to social media, as I really don't pay much attention to either.

I do take a bit of exception to "Everyone else is listening because it's exciting or it's media, freelancers, and storm chasers getting information to advance their business interests or their hobby." Personally, I am listening out of sheer interest. As a hydrologist, news regarding flooding events, of any kind, anywhere, interests me. This is all the more interesting as it is an event that is unfolding and on-going. Very similar to wunderbloggers gathering tropical weather information and reporting them on this blog.

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I don't feel too compelled to post this in light of the Colorado flood situation, as I feel it will understandably be overshadowed by the more imminent threat, but if anyone cares, here's a blog I made on the tropics just now.

Godspeed to Colorado.
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1500. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Sar, on the sheriff/fire feed they just talked about some guys headed to high water w/ a 'green flotation device'...this is where the saying 'he ain't got the sense God gave a mule' can definitely apply.

Let's hope they can use the "green flotation device" to help identify their remains when the water level goes down. You have to understand that the population of Boulder is about half college students, and they love to do things like kayak down rain swollen streams, climb the Flatirons with no training or preparation, or take off for some cross county skiing because the weather "look nice" when a three day blizzard is about to hit them.

I had the pleasure of training with the Boulder County Emergency Service Department, which includes their search and rescue teams, and they were some of the best I've worked with. The people of Boulder Country are lucky to have this group of unpaid professionals on duty, since I'm sure the death toll would have been much higher without them.
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EP, 90, 2013091306, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1010W, 30, 999, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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