Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Quoting 1645. muddertracker:


Can't water ski on lake Travis right now...lol... 90 feet below level. Might hit bottom! Sounds fun! Jelly.

Haha. Got a chuckle of how you worded that but then read again and realized that it's more SAD than anything with Lake Travis. :(
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1648. GatorWX
... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until noon MDT today...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of central Colorado... north central Colorado and
northeast Colorado... including the following counties... western
Weld... Broomfield... western Adams... western Arapahoe...
Denver... Douglas... western Elbert... and portions of
Larimer... Boulder... Jefferson... Clear Creek... Gilpin and park
counties below 9000 feet.

* Until noon MDT today

* moderate to heavy rainfall is still possible this morning.
Additional heavy rain will result in quick rises and new
flooding on small streams.

* Rainfall is expected to become more showery and less widespread
this afternoon... though there may still be some threat of
localized heavy rainfall.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding and serious debris flows. Flash flooding is a
very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.



Gimmestad
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Quoting 1639. muddertracker:


Yeah...that was my husband and daughter in OKC for softball...totally sucked.

I'd still like to chase with Reed, tho. He keeps his paying customers safe, right? lol



Oh, I remember. Contact tonadodude, he actually works for a Tornado tour company founded by Reed, if interested.

Or, heck, just come back for the softball tournament next year - you never know. ;)
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This was posted a while ago, but thought it worth showing again. It's the hydrograph of the North Fork of the Big Thompson River at Drake. The previous record high flood stage of 9.3' occurred during the 1976 Big Thompson Canyon floo that killed 144 people. The river crested at 10.55' a few hours ago, and will slowly drop during the day as the hills feeding the watershed continue to drain down:

bt

The bulk of the rainfall has thankfully shifted off to the east. However, there's still ample monsoonal moisture flowing north, so the Boulder area could be in for at least another few hours of light to moderate rainfall before the worst of it moves off.
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Quoting 1640. SouthernIllinois:

Haha! Knitting Convection!! Well close....my friends come over after shopping and we all compare clothes and shoes we just bought. haha. But ENORMOUS party tonight at the cove and going water-skiing tomorrow. Haven't been in AGES and might just live a lil dangerously and try to go slalom style!!! :) Sunday morning plan to see my niece and go for a long bike ride down the trail. She got a new shiny pink bike with training wheels and CANNOT wait to go!! SO EXCITED!!!


Can't water ski on lake Travis right now...lol... 90 feet below level. Might hit bottom! Sounds fun! Jelly.
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But looking at the broader bigger picture, and the other basins around the globe, ACE has been suppressed big time. The systems that did manage to form struggled and didn't quite take advantage of conditions to reach their full potential. I am very curious as to what has caused this on a larger global scale and if anyone has an idea or even another analog year in the past that remotely resembles this, I am all ears :)
Quoting 1625. clwstmchasr:


We're about to it the "I" storm today which makes makes 9 so far this year and it is only Sept 13. We're on pace to have 13-15 storms which is an above average season. The TPC predicted 13-19 storms. Not sure what you mean by "exact opposite".
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Quoting 1637. GatorWX:


He's an alarmist, I'll say that. He does have a tendency to make things they aren't. It may be in his mind, or he may be trying to assume ratings. It doesn't matter to me. I take everything with a grain of salt until something happens and in the meantime, I listen to those I feel are most qualified.

I have no problem with him, although I doubt we see eye to eye on everything. Some on this site are so keen on bashing everyone that doesn't see their point of view. It certainly doesn't help their credibility rating with those who oppose, but that's their issue. Some will never get it.

True. Doc Masters is an alarmist. But that doesn't give me a reason or even desire to mock him or degrade his credentials. I guess that's just the Nat in me...I see the good out of everyone.
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1641. GatorWX
Quoting 1628. EricSpittle:
Nevermind, can't get the picture to post

Boulder Creek Camera

Significantly higher than it was yesterday.


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Quoting 1629. muddertracker:


Tease....what's going on? Concert? Football? Knitting convention? You sound so excited. Details!!!

(Oh, it's still hot in Central Texas)

Haha! Knitting Convection!! Well close....my friends come over after shopping and we all compare clothes and shoes we just bought. haha. But ENORMOUS party tonight at the cove and going water-skiing tomorrow. Haven't been in AGES and might just live a lil dangerously and try to go slalom style!!! :) Sunday morning after church plan to see my niece and go for a long bike ride down the trail. She got a new shiny pink bike with training wheels and CANNOT wait to go!! SO EXCITED!!!
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Quoting 1633. daddyjames:

Hey, I thought you had your fill when last here in OK!

Shh, we are still hoping for a quiet 2nd half.


Yeah...that was my husband and daughter in OKC for softball...totally sucked.

I'd still like to chase with Reed, tho. He keeps his paying customers safe, right? lol

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1638. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like that tunnel is next to bridge pictured in the entry..

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1637. GatorWX
Quoting 1617. SouthernIllinois:

I understand. But as opposed to whom? Who are we comparing him too. Everyone has a unique delivery. Look at Dr. Master's and his efforts...


He's an alarmist, I'll say that. He does have a tendency to make things they aren't. It may be in his mind, or he may be trying to assume ratings. It doesn't matter to me. I take everything with a grain of salt until something happens and in the meantime, I listen to those I feel are most qualified.

I have no problem with him, although I doubt we see eye to eye on everything. Some on this site are so keen on bashing everyone that doesn't see their point of view. It certainly doesn't help their credibility rating with those who oppose, but that's their issue. Some will never get it.
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1636. DDR
Quoting pottery:


Yeah, same areas as last time apparently.
The Minister of the Environment is saying that un-authorised development is a big part of the problem.

DUH !!/???

Not only that,poor/outdated drainage networks also the clearing of the forests,what a shame.
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Quoting 1630. daddyjames:


I don't begrudge disagreeing necessarily with forecasts - we all do it here - but I already described how and why, IMO, JB draws scorn from others.

And good morning. How are things in your neck of the woods? (literally)

Oh just peachy. Trees and forest and crickets and wildlife VERY happy! Birds are singing, squirrels collecting their nuts, and bucks coming snooping around playing with the brush and rustling in the leaves. A picture perfect morning in the deciduous forests of the Heartland!
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1634. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 1620. muddertracker:
zzzzzzzzzzz

When is tornado season?

Hey, I thought you had your fill when your fam was last here in OK!

Shh, we are still hoping for a quiet 2nd half.
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1632. Skyepony (Mod)
People in Boulder are crazy in this flood..

Warning, minor foul language..
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Quoting 1619. cctxshirl:
I see that a lot of people are disappointed because it's been an uneventful hurricane season but it ain't over til the fat lady sings and I, for one, am glad it's been uneventful. Although we can use the rain in South TX, we don't want our homes destroyed. So I am glad it's been a boring season and hope it continues til the end of 2013. I see what all those people have been through with the major floods and wildfires and I thank the Lord I am safe. I know that may sound dull and boring but it's nice not being in the news.


Amen!
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Quoting 1617. SouthernIllinois:

I understand. But as opposed to whom? Who are we comparing him too. Everyone has a unique delivery. Look at Dr. Master's and his efforts...


I don't begrudge disagreeing necessarily with forecasts - we all do it here - but I already described how and why, IMO, JB draws scorn from others.

And good morning. How are things in your neck of the woods? (literally)
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Quoting 1627. SouthernIllinois:

I know right? I'm with Rita on this one. Time to hit the hay for a long cat nap. Gotta HUGE plans tonight and all day tomorrow. CANNOT wait!!!


Tease....what's going on? Concert? Football? Knitting convention? You sound so excited. Details!!!

(Oh, it's still hot in Central Texas)
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Nevermind, can't get the picture to post

Boulder Creek Camera

Significantly higher than it was yesterday.
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Quoting 1620. muddertracker:
zzzzzzzzzzz

When is tornado season?

I know right? I'm with Rita on this one. Time to hit the hay for a long cat nap. Got HUGE plans tonight and all day tomorrow. CANNOT wait!!!
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Down to 1000MB

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 13:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Tropical Depression: Number 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 12:40:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 1915'N 9510'W (19.25N 95.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 171 miles (275 km) to the WNW (301) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mxico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the SE (128) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195 at 35kts (From the SSW at ~ 40.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21C (70F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23C (73F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23C (73F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (129) from the flight level center at 12:18:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23C (73F) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the SE (127) from the flight level center

Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4898
Quoting 1587. SouthernIllinois:

Joe B, the excellent forecaster as he is, does not fully endorse GW with an agenda. Others on here do.

Do the math: The envy and disdain runs rampant. It's quite simple.

Dats all I gotta say bout dat. :)
Please--pretty please with sugar on top--provide some proof of his forecasting "excellency", would you? I've searched, but I've not found any aside from that which he or his ideological sycophants spout. I've been watching JB for years--I like to study abnormal psychology--and for every good forecast he makes, he makes a dozen bad ones. Really, really bad ones. And even those good ones are usually drenched in unstable, sometimes hysterical, jealousy-filled rants directed at real scientists such as Dr. Masters, Michael Mann, James Hansen, Kevin Trenberth, and so on.

I'm not denying JB has his share of followers and apologists; anyone who's hung out in this forum knows that. But there's a reason Fox "Deny Science At All Costs" News regularly features him, while no credible news organizations will.

Anyway, I look forward to your evidence. Thanks in advance...
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1623. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Morning pottery
Did Diego Martin flood last night?
I had 4.3 inches here Wednesday,1/2 inch last night.


Yeah, same areas as last time apparently.
The Minister of the Environment is saying that un-authorised development is a big part of the problem.

DUH !!/???
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1622. pottery
Quoting stoormfury:
what a year. who would have thought that the 2013 hurricane season, would be so undramatic. With most of the predictors in place for an active season, It turns out at this stage to be the exact opposite. It goes t show the difficulty in tropical meteorology, and forecasting cyclogenesis in this region. no one ever gave consideration to the drought over Brazil and the effect of the dry air which ilfiltrated the MDR would have on hurricane genesis. we have still a lot more to know.

Good post.

Going to be important over the next couple years for the models to adapt their 'thinking' to take into account current and projected Climatic Conditions.

Basically, all ''Historical'' and ''Climo.'' inputs need to be downgraded and new ''real-time'' influences given more importance.

The word that comes to mind is Rethink......
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Quoting 1603. RitaEvac:


I'm impressed you remember that Natalie. Gonna give you a gold sticker :)

*Glows* I will happily accept and wear with pride. :)
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zzzzzzzzzzz

When is tornado season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see that a lot of people are disappointed because it's been an uneventful hurricane season but it ain't over til the fat lady sings and I, for one, am glad it's been uneventful. Although we can use the rain in South TX, we don't want our homes destroyed. So I am glad it's been a boring season and hope it continues til the end of 2013. I see what all those people have been through with the major floods and wildfires and I thank the Lord I am safe. I know that may sound dull and boring but it's nice not being in the news.
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Quoting 1588. sebastianflorida:
Just a quick post on thoughts I've had over the last couple of days: Regardless of some attitudes on the blog (the minority) everyone has an absolute right to view and posts weather related comments or graphics on the blog unless banned by those in charge; Most are not on this sight as a way to make friends or enemies; most do not come on the sight to hear the minorities drama; like when you go to work, "leave the Drama at the Front Door" No one person or select few bloggers make this site worth coming to; the people that disagree with the popular posts regarding storms, tracks, or development are not usually trolls, they are just fellow bloggers with their own ideas even if their thoughts are somewhat ridiculous at times, after all sharing ideas regarding weather is what the sight is all about and we all have a right to do that here. The only people credible and educated enough to discredit a fellow blogger harshly is someone with a weather/science related PHD. These are just my thoughts, whoever doesn't like them has that right, but the sun is coming up tomorrow for us all and we all still have our personal lives to live regardless of this blogs few who act superior and criticize others without warrant. Poof away, but doing so will have you only reading posts from a narrow point of view, and you might miss something important or that could make you laugh. At the end of the day this is just weather, weather has always been around and always will, before and after you; doesn't matter what you want it to do, or how many agree with you, for the weather is going to be ultimately controlled by forces that we are all somewhat ignorant on. Back to the tropics now.


Well Said My friend :o)


Taco :o)
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Quoting 1612. daddyjames:


No one questions his forecasting ability, just how he chooses to communicate it.

I understand. But as opposed to whom? Who are we comparing him too. Everyone has a unique delivery. Look at Dr. Master's and his efforts...
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1616. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1615. HCW


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Quoting 1609. pottery:
Good Morning.
Some heavy stuff just to the North of me brought flooding to areas of the NW peninsula last night.
Sky this morning was heavy with dark cloud and plenty thunder overnight..

Looks to be moving on, but expecting showers.

Happy Friday 13th, all.


A double 13 9/13/13 - although a lot of bad luck seemed to have occurred yesterday for some.

good morning, pottery.
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1613. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Some heavy stuff just to the North of me brought flooding to areas of the NW peninsula last night.
Sky this morning was heavy with dark cloud and plenty thunder overnight..

Looks to be moving on, but expecting showers.

Happy Friday 13th, all.

Morning pottery
Did Diego Martin flood last night?
I had 4.3 inches here Wednesday,1/2 inch last night.
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Quoting 1587. SouthernIllinois:

Joe B, the excellent forecaster as he is, . . .


No one questions his forecasting ability, just how he chooses to communicate it.
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garbage systems in the tropics worldwide and we should be at the peak of the season. Even the EPac and WPac don't have a nice formidable hurricane/typhoon to track and keep an eye on. This lack of cyclonic energy in the N. Hemisphere has to be a world record or something. Not sure what is causing this but never have i seen all the basins struggle. Only one hurricane in the Atlantic and even the EPac has had hard times getting the few hurricanes that it did, let alone a major.
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1610. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WOCN31 CWHX 131145
Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 8:48 AM ADT Friday
13 September 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Newfoundland
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island.

For tropical depression Gabrielle.

The next statement will be issued by 3:00 PM ADT.

Gabrielle beginning to accelerate northeastward - currently
Merging with frontal system - heavy rain already affecting nova
Scotia.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 AM ADT.

Location: near 37.9 north 66.8 west, or about 800 kilometres
south-southwest of Halifax.

Maximum sustained winds: 56 km/h.

Present movement: north-northeast at 28 km/h.

Minimum central pressure: 1004 MB.

2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gabrielle is currently located south of the Maritimes and is moving
north-northeastward. It will continue to accelerate today as it
merges with a cold front approaching from the west. As Gabrielle
moves northward, its moisture will be drawn into the front.
Heavy rainfall from this merging frontal feature is already affecting
Nova Scotia this morning and will spread across the province and into
PEI today.

While Gabrielle is again a tropical depression, this slight change in
intensity will have negligible change on its effects on Atlantic
Canada. The storm centre itself is also not likely to have much of a
direct impact on the region since most of its energy will transfer to
the cold front. What is left of Gabrielle's wind will likely clip
Eastern Nova Scotia tonight. The original storm centre will likely
be completely merged with the front by the time it reaches Western
Newfoundland by early Saturday.

A. Wind.

An area of gusty winds associated with the remnants of Gabrielle will
affect Eastern Mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton tonight, with
wind gusts up to 70 km/h expected. Les Suetes winds up to 90 km/h
are forecast in the Lee of the Cape Breton Highlands tonight.
These gustier winds will also move into Newfoundland by Saturday
morning.

B. Rainfall.

Rain (heavy at times) as already developed over Nova Scotia this
morning and spread to the remainder of the province, Prince Edward
Island, and Îles-de-la-Madeleine during the day. Computer models are
indicating that the heaviest rainfall related to Gabrielle's remnant
low will fall along a swath just west of and roughly parallel to its
track across Eastern Nova Scotia. Rainfall warnings are in effect
for parts of Central and Northeastern Nova Scotia, as well as Queens
and Kings County PEI and Îles-de-la-Madeleine. Local rainfall
amounts of up to 70 millimetres are possible in these areas.
There is a slight risk of 100 millimetres within the swath which
could give localized flooding. Note that a change in track or timing
of the interaction of the forementioned front with Gabrielle could
shift these maximum rainfall areas to other regions.

The west coast of Newfoundland and Labrador will receive heavy rain
from the approaching front today. Rain related to the remnants of
Gabrielle will begin to affect southern parts of Newfoundland tonight
and amounts could exceed 30-40 millimetres through Saturday.

C. Surge/waves.

Moderate wave/surf conditions are likely along the Atlantic coast of
Guysborough County, Cape Breton, and Southern Newfoundland associated
with the remnants of Gabrielle.

3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.

Gale warnings are in effect for maritime waters near and east of
Gabrielle's track. Gale force winds will likely develop ahead of
Gabrielle over southern maritime waters this morning, then spread
northward during the day. The strongest winds will likely occur just
east of the remaining circulation when it crosses Maritimes and
Newfoundland waters.

Wave models show the potential for wave heights of 4 to 6 metres as
the leftovers of Gabrielle move through.

Visit weatheroffice.Gc.Ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the
latest:

- forecast position, central pressure table.

- strength and predicted wind radii table.

- hurricane track information map.

- technical discussion.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings
issued by Environment Canada for your area.

END/HARTT/COUTURIER/BORGEL
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1609. pottery
Good Morning.
Some heavy stuff just to the North of me brought flooding to areas of the NW peninsula last night.
Sky this morning was heavy with dark cloud and plenty thunder overnight..

Looks to be moving on, but expecting showers.

Happy Friday 13th, all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what a year. who would have thought that the 2013 hurricane season, would be so undramatic. With most of the predictors in place for an active season, It turns out at this stage to be the exact opposite. It goes t show the difficulty in tropical meteorology, and forecasting cyclogenesis in this region. no one ever gave consideration to the drought over Brazil and the effect of the dry air which ilfiltrated the MDR would have on hurricane genesis. we have still a lot more to know.
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Good morning...

19.750N 95.750W 958.9 mb
(~ 28.32 inHg) 395 meters
(~ 1,296 feet) 1003.3 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 38° at 33 knots
(From the NE at ~ 37.9 mph) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 21.2°C
(~ 70.2°F) 35 knots
(~ 40.2 mph)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
1606. Patrap
Good things do come from this blog and wunderground.

It was this day 5 years ago that spurred the Portlight Relief for those impacted by Hurricane Ike.

WUBA Ike relief, morphed into the Portlight.org featured wunderblog here.




After only 5 years we have delivered over 2 million Dollars of relief from Texas, to Haiti,to Sandy relief.

People helping people..is a Good thing.

Portlight Disaster Relief

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089


Morning everyone :)

I enjoy that the blog becomes more active as work becomes slower as we approach fall, helps my weather edumacation :)
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Quoting 1599. CaribBoy:


This year, well... I have so many bad thoughts about it. And ex98L won't do anything to improve the picture...

B-U-S-T NEUTRAL YEAR
2014 : B-U-S-T ELNINO YEAR

The future is not pretty lol


There still is hope for you CB


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Quoting 1597. SouthernIllinois:

You oughta all people should be the yipper chipper-est of us all. You getting off work at 11:30 AM. Lucky duck!! :)


I'm impressed you remember that Natalie. Gonna give you a gold sticker :)
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BLOG is dead... mood is low....
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6415
Quoting 1585. FL1980:


Why do people on this blog continue to mock Joe Bastardi? Is it because you disagree with his views? For people who don't like Joe Bastardi you certainly follow what he says a lot. He has his views and you have yours.


His tweets - such as stating that 10L could be a cat 2-3 before landfall, and that Gabby should not be downgraded to a TD are proffered without analysis, or any reasoning to back it up.

They, directly and indirectly, demonstrate contempt of those at the NHC.

JB brings it on himself. His statements are designed to draw attention, and to drum up business. But they are extremely unprofessional criticisms of his colleagues, and cause the public to question the statements of the NHC serving no one but himself.
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Quoting 1594. RitaEvac:
Lets go back to sleep.


Maybe the track will continue this northward trend during our sleep. Everyone in TX should go back to sleep right now lol
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Quoting 1547. SLU:
My early-April ACE forecast for 2013 of 130 - 190 units is going to BUST.

ACE to date (2013): 16.785

ACE to date (1981-2010 Climatology): 56

September 28th.



This year, well... I have so many bad thoughts about it. And ex98L won't do anything to improve the picture...

B-U-S-T NEUTRAL YEAR
2014 : B-U-S-T ELNINO YEAR

The future is not pretty lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6415

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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