Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Quoting 197. HurricaneAndre:
--TEAL 70--


That's the call sign :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting 91. SouthernIllinois:

Interesting. That's usually our threshold here in the Heartland....2.0 or higher of PWS. Yeah, the windward mountain effect in full swing out there! Up in the higher terrain regions will have the opportunity more to wring the moisture out of systems but will spare the lower regions closer to the coast.

Really cool....almost like micro-climates within a larger regional climate. Must really give forecasters a headache when they get one of those systems in there!!! haha


For sure Natalie........Not too much exciting weather here in Soo Cal.......usually sunny and warm covers it 80% of the time........ throw in a el nino year for excitement once in a while
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Quoting 194. hurricanehanna:
Pat - which aircraft was it that was scheduled to fly ?
--TEAL 70--
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Awhhhhhhhhhh humbertos eye is getting messed up now. Good things don't last forever, I guess.

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Quoting 161. MississippiWx:
GFS keeps 93L fairly broad and thus doesn't develop it much. If this occurs, it's totally possible for it to move a lot slower across the Bay of Campeche, opening up the possibility for a more northward movement. This would obviously mean a longer time over water and eventually a stronger system (possibly). The GFS is being very inconsistent with its solution of 93L, so I wouldn't trust it too much yet.


The answer lies on the other side of the Pacific if you want your answer for the GFS's inconsistency, you'll note the strength of the low to the south in the GoH was stronger than it was on the 06z, causing it to compete for energy and dragging it southwards.

Still though, the 00z showed almost no development, the 06z showed a hurricane, the 12z showed a moderate tropical storm, it's quite clear the GFS isn't sure what to do with 93L. It's obvious though the intensity will be determined of track.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Pat - which aircraft was it that was scheduled to fly ?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Look at the ominous 97W strengthening in its natural habitat.

(should really make a nature documentary or something... LOL.)

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192. flsky
Man rescued from flooded card in CO.

Link
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191. Skyepony (Mod)
Multi-blobbed 97W looking large in the middle of the West Pacific.

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Quoting 167. 69Viking:


Just report him like I did.


10 flags on any post apparently removes the post without anyone having to manually do so.
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189. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 173. will40:


yes i saw that they got to 50ft then descended

Usually they turn those on then take off. It looked like it was reading 52' when they turned it on. I took it as a bad reading, along with a few others, like the jump back to 33'. The coordinates changed & then went back too.
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187. B183
What will it take to get 93L to slide on a more northerly track towards the Texas coast or Mexico border? I think we will gladly eat a strong, slow moving tropical storm or Cat 1 just to get water back in our lakes. We're down to 30% capacity in Corpus Christi.
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Quoting 176. Tazmanian:


if you don't like it you can Ignore me that or whats get back too the weather



wish sould it be


Taz you never talk about weather. All you do is run around pretending you're a mod which you're not. We have several systems worth watching out in the Tropical Atlantic so why don't you get on topic for once and police yourself.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279

448
WGUS55 KPUB 121618
FFWPUB
COC041-121900-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FF.W.0041.130912T1618Z-130912T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1018 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 100 PM MDT

* AT 1013 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FORT CARSON. THIS RAIN IS
MOVING NORTH AND WILL AFFECT THE WEST SIDE OF COLORADO SPRINGS AND
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO SPRINGS LAST NIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL QUICKLY
RUN OFF. IN ADDITION...THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR IS COMPLETELY
SATURATED AND ANY NEW RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND
THE BURN SCAR REGION.

* THIS IS VERY DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. RUNOFF FROM THIS
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...COLORADO
SPRINGS...CASCADE...CHIPITA PARK...MANITOU SPRINGS AND SECURITY.

JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ON A BURN SCAR CAN LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. WATER THAT IS NORMALLY ABSORBED BY THE SOILS AND
VEGETATION...RUNS OFF ALMOST INSTANTLY. THIS CAUSES CREEKS AND
DRAINAGE AREAS TO FLOOD AT A MUCH FASTER RATE THAN NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THE SOILS IN A BURN SCAR BECOME UNSTABLE WHEN IT RAINS...
SOMETIMES RESULTING IN DEBRIS AND FALLING ROCK. ROADS CAN BE WASHED
OUT BY THE FORCE OF THE RUSHING WATER AND DEBRIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.



LAT...LON 3895 10476 3875 10472 3870 10494 3879 10494
3880 10497 3899 10502
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 171. Skyepony:

The first bit out the Aircraft Geopotential Height jumped around randomly enough I wondered if they would be taking off any time soon.

yeah...they appear to be parked on the runway....hopefully will get things straightened out soon
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Prayers going out to those in Colorado-first the fires and now the floods. Stay safe.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 340
Station 42055 (LLNR 1101) - BAY OF CAMPECHE - 214 NM NE OF Veracruz, MX

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Link

it look like it under a bit of shear right now hmm (93L)
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
Quoting 155. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


so shall it be written
so shall it be done

Uh, we said Texas, not Colorado, but thanks anyway.
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Pacific Waters Remain Stubbornly Stable
NASA Visible Earth - Earthobservatory, September 12, 2013

New data acquired in August 2013 show near-normal sea-surface height conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This neutral or "La Nada" pattern has stubbornly persisted since spring 2012. According to models run by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, this pattern will likely continue through spring 2014.

"Without an El Nino or La Nina signal present, other less predictable climatic factors will govern fall, winter, and spring weather conditions," said climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Long-range forecasts are most successful during El Nino and La Nina episodes. The in-between ocean state, La Nada, is the dominant condition and it is frustrating for long-range forecasters. It's like driving without a decent road map." ...


Whole article see link above.
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Quoting 123. luvtogolf:
The U.S. is certainly not experiencing the unprecedented heat that we saw last year. Matter of fact, the lows just slightly outnumber the highs this year.


Hi Max Hi Mi Low Max Low Min
YTD 7,960 12,684 12,495 8,726
LYTD 29,176 25,999 5,350 4,045

YTD Highs = 20,644
LY Highs = 55,175
YTD Lows = 21,221
LY Lows = 9,995
Yes, they do. For now, that is; with the current weather as well as that forecasted for the next several weeks, 2013 highs will be outnumbering lows sometime within the next few days. (Over the past 3 weeks, high records have outnumbered low ones by a pretty lopsided 2,756 to 177, or better than 15-to-1.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13531
Quoting 149. FunnelVortex:


Taz, we've had it with you... STOP POLICING!


if you don't like it you can Ignore me that or whats get back too the weather



wish sould it be
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Highlights from 9 a.m. Boulder County flooding press conference:

Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle requests that Boulder County residents stay inside and stay off the roads.

Some areas of mountain and foothills are "completely inaccessible," although rescue teams are at the ready as soon as it is safe and possible to enter via emergency vehicles.

Helicopters ready for search and rescue but grounded due to weather conditions.

Sheriff Pelle: "This is not your ordinary day. It is not your ordinary disaster."

Lyons currently isolated by flooding ... Sewer plant, market damaged. Clean water cut off.

Two confirmed deaths: one in a structure in Jamestown, one in the 200 block of Linden in Boulder.

This storm is impacting every drainage in Boulder County from St. Vrain to Coal Creek Canyon.

U.S. 36 is out at Longmont Dam Road near Lyons.

Sheriff Pelle: "This event is not over. It's far from over. It's continuing to build."

After initial surge of rain, debris builds. … In some places in mountains, there are reports of 10 ft. debris walls with 6-8 feet of water behind them.

Road and bridge crews hope to plow through Sunshine Canyon and reopen in a few hours. ... That would be emergency crews' first access to mountains since last night.

Forecast suggests dangerous conditions will continue today tomorrow and the next day.

Sarah Huntley, City of Boulder: Boulder Creek running at 1,800 cubic feet per second, down from a peak of 3,200 cubic feet per second last night. Normal flow for this time of year is 200 cubic feet per second.

The City of Boulder and Boulder County officials are urging people to stay off the roads and away from all waterways. The conditions remain dangerous and unpredictable.
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Quoting 168. SouthernIllinois:

Haha!!!


Email on it's way!! :)



Hell yeah we could do that too!!! Yum YUM.



Of course if you live down south you'll have to wait till noon to purchase. But I'm stocked up so come knocking when you want. :)


Wow, look at you multi-talking!
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Quoting 171. Skyepony:

The first bit out the Aircraft Geopotential Height jumped around randomly enough I wondered if they would be taking off any time soon.


yes i saw that they got to 50ft then descended
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Quoting 167. 69Viking:


Just report him like I did.


reported him ;)
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171. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 163. hurricanehanna:


aircraft trouble or equipment issues ?

The first bit out the Aircraft Geopotential Height jumped around randomly enough I wondered if they would be taking off any time soon.
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170. flsky
Quoting 146. Tazmanian:



reported


plzs take that suff too your own blog


I think a mod came on not too long ago and said so


reported - ha!
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169. beell
Quoting 148. georgevandenberghe:

Quoting 97. SouthernIllinois:
Of course crapping out. Should have known better than to ever think this had a chance to make it into Cypress in the first place. :(

*** END QUOTES***

Just a reminder that Cumulonimbus_missingus is one of
the most frustratingly common cloud formations of summer.


Don't forget cirrus (serious) rainus.
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Quoting 149. FunnelVortex:


Taz, we've had it with you... STOP POLICING!


Just report him like I did.
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People really need to move on from this whole Grothar thing. He just had one bad day on here like all of us and y'all are making it a huge deal. According to him, he left for personal reasons so let's just leave at that. It could be his health struggling again or a family problem. What I do know is Grothar is one of the best person on this blog to defuse all tensions by using his good sense of humor :) I'm going to miss having him on this blog.
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Most likely
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
Quoting 162. Patrap:
Decoded data from last 30 minutes: No decoded data could be found.

There have been no recent High Density (HDOB) Messages from the Air Force in the Atlantic basin for missions tasked by the NHC.


Hopefully plane doesn't have problems.
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Quoting 162. Patrap:
Decoded data from last 30 minutes: No decoded data could be found.

There have been no recent High Density (HDOB) Messages from the Air Force in the Atlantic basin for missions tasked by the NHC.


aircraft trouble or equipment issues ?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Decoded data from last 30 minutes: No decoded data could be found.

There have been no recent High Density (HDOB) Messages from the Air Force in the Atlantic basin for missions tasked by the NHC.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
GFS keeps 93L fairly broad and thus doesn't develop it much. If this occurs, it's totally possible for it to move a lot slower across the Bay of Campeche, opening up the possibility for a more northward movement. This would obviously mean a longer time over water and eventually a stronger system (possibly). The GFS is being very inconsistent with its solution of 93L, so I wouldn't trust it too much yet.
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160. flsky
Quoting 96. StormTrackerScott:
Here comes the East Coast Seabreeze.


Already had some nice rain in Ponce Inlet. Hearing a few boomers in the distance. the temp is fantastic!
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What the heck is recon doing
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
Just recently moved from Boulder. It's easy to see why 6+ inches of rain could cause this type of flooding with the geography just to the west of town. Dangerous situation there, hope all my friends stay safe.

From NWS Boulder/Denver
.UPDATE...MAJOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING EVENT UNDERWAY AT THIS
TIME WITH BIBLICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED IN MANY AREAS IN/NEAR
THE FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AND
A QUARTER ON GPS SENSORS CERTAINLY SUPPORT LOTS MORE RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT. 13Z HRRR RUN HAS ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
PREDICTED IN THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH 04Z SO THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING
GOOD. WILL EXTEND THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
ZONE 43 AND ALSO EXTEND IT IN TIME THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.

AT 945 AM MDT...BOULDER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT
THE TOWN OF LYONS WAS COMPLETELY CUT OFF AND SURROUNDED BY WATER.
THE TOWN OF JAMESTOWN WAS ALSO COMPLETELY INACCESSIBLE.

SOME OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WERE
WEST OF LYONS AND JUST EAST OF JAMESTOWN WHERE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN FELL.
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Quoting 140. JohnLonergan:
As a tribute to Grothar, we have the Blobfish:






Who is grothar?

pardon my ignorance
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
Hello all, things are absolutely crazy here in Boulder. Our dorms flooded so quickly we simply had to leave the situation. It's still raining quite and bit and it doesn't look like it is letting up anytime soon. Classes are cancelled today and tomorrow due to flooding damage. We quite literally got a third of the year's rainfall in a 2-day period. Hopefully the rain lets up sometime soon.
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Quoting 126. RitaEvac:
Behold the waters, and deliver to parched lands



so shall it be written
so shall it be done
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I'm watching/listening from home in slight disbelief as every route I have out of the mountains is being cut off, one by one. Glad I have plenty of beer food at the house.





------------------------------------------------

Here is the road closure list from the Colorado Department of Transportation as of 9:20 a.m.:

- US 36 closed from Lyons to Estes Park due to flooding. Closure began at 1:32 a.m. The road has been washed away at Longmont Dam Road, according to the Boulder County Sheriff.

- US 34 closed between Loveland and Estes Park due to flooding. Closure began at 12:23 a.m.

- CO 7 Lyons to Estes Park due to flooding. Road closure began at 5:15 a.m.

- CO 14 closed from Ted's Place to Mile Marker 101 due to numerous rock slides. Closure began Wednesday at 10:04 p.m.

- CO 72 closed at Coal Creek Canyon due to flooding. Jefferson County officials said the highway is washed out. The closure starts at Skyline Drive. Closure began at 12:57 a.m.

- CO 119 is closed south of Nederland at mile marker 16.8 due to flooding. Closure began at 6:35 a.m.

- US 24 closed from Manitou Springs to Cascade because of the flash flood warning in the area. The road was closed overnight and reopened Thursday morning. It was closed again at 9:11 a.m.

Source: 7NEWS.COM

PLUS - scanner traffic has confirmed Boulder Canyon is currently closed due to a rock slide.
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9" Boulder
6.6" Louisville
6.2" Aurora
5.3" Henderson
5.0" Commerce City
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Quoting 106. RitaEvac:





I hate it when the storm splits like that >.<
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Tropical Atlantic has 93L moving 17mph. I dont see it. What I do see is a tug on 93L to the NW.
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Tonight Ike hits exactly 5 years ago
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Quoting 146. Tazmanian:



reported


plzs take that suff too your own blog


I think a mod came on not too long ago and said so


Taz, we've had it with you... STOP POLICING!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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