Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Water vapor. Click to enlarge. Just looking at this I wouldn't have any idea that there are torrential ("unprecendented") rainfalls in Colorado.
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Ex-98L pressure still falling. 1006.0mb.
This is much lower pressure that Gabrielle ever had in the Caribbean.

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93L Short Floater - Visible Imagery Loop
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:29Z
Date: September 12, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 17

19:29:00Z 20.967N 92.283W 977.2 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 263 meters
(~ 863 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 135° at 24 knots
(From the SE at ~ 27.6 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 25.9 knots (~ 29.8 mph)
108.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:19:30Z (first observation), the observation was 147 miles (236 km) to the NW (317°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.

At 19:29:00Z (last observation), the observation was 138 miles (222 km) between the WNW and NW (304°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
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#17
19:29:00Z
20.967N 92.283W 977.2 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 263 meters
(~ 863 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 135 at 24 knots
(From the SE at ~ 27.6 mph) 24.0C
(~ 75.2F) 21.4C
(~ 70.5F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph)
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SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
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Quoting 571. Patrap:

Takin a stab at this...
Hanna, Ike, Josephine, and Gustav?? Idk..
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Wow, sorry, but wonderful moderating today.
One side favored by the PC crowd gets to go off-topic and rant repeatedly, going on & on & on....
I wonder how many from the other viewpoint has been banned or would be if they said much. Rules are rules as long as the "other" side is affected alone.
The ranters are going to be allowed to keep on until someone talks back, then will get them banned. That is sort of like cyber-bullying, lol. It's sort of like communism that allows no dissenting view. People say they want "equality" or "fairness", but that is not it at all -- they want THEIR way, no arguments, no replies, the debate is over, only. I'm really rather moderate on all this, but hate to see the one-sided unfairness here.

No, I won't try to mediate, today.
This is my two-cents, & that's it.
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Quoting 585. Ameister12:

So?
Fox Fan
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Quoting 584. Doppler22:
Wow, this is a big warning...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
CUMBERLAND COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
DAUPHIN COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
LEBANON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN MONTOUR COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
PERRY COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SNYDER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT


Geez, that's on it's way here too...

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BREAKING NEWS: The FAA has closed BWI Airport in Baltimore due to a lightning strike on the tower and all operations at the airport have stopped for the time being
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Screenshot NWS colorado total rainfall last day: There are regions with 8 - 10 inches (dark purple)! They've talked about these amounts on 7News too.
Link

Edit: They even mention up to 12 inches in certain places.
Link
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579. MrMixon

I appreciate you showing us what is going on....this is just awful...and it sounds like things are going to get even worse.
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Quoting 577. NttyGrtty:
More people watched the devastating flash floods sweep though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning on FOX News than on any other cable news outlet...

So?
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Wow, this is a big warning...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
328 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
CUMBERLAND COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
DAUPHIN COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
LEBANON COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN MONTOUR COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
PERRY COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SCHUYLKILL COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
SNYDER COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

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Quoting 551. MiamiHurricanes09:
93L should have a good 3-4 days over water. Plenty of time for it to intensify into a hurricane.


Very slow movement may create some upwelling. Not so sure the wind is going to be the big concern with this system, but the amount of rain that falls is going to be devastating.
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Quoting 558. flsky:


This is WAY off topic, and I apologize in advance.... My sister and a good friend of mine are both "FOXers." He lives in FL and she lives in WA. In any kind of discussion with them, on current events especially, they will spout the Fox line almost verbatim - kind of like what we hear on here re climate change. It would be exceedingly laughable if it weren't so pitiful and dangerous. Hopefully, most people who actually THINK about things, and perhaps do their own research, don't get caught up in the FOX marketing plan. (rant over, again, I apologize - I'll probably get banned....)

  Your right, it is off-topic, and we are trying to stay on-topic.Besides, the left has their own propaganda-outlets, too, so we mustn't be naive.
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Quoting 509. NttyGrtty:
So let me see if I have this straight: FOX News is bad, they intentionally deceive and have a non-science biased agenda. Yet, FOX News is the #1 rated cable news network and has been for years. FOX actually has an audience the size of all other cable news outlets combined. Also, Nea posted a while back a "scientific" study showing watching FOX actually made one a little dumber each time you watched it. So...more people are watching FOX than not watching FOX knowing that they decieve and have a non-science biased agenda AND watching it makes you dumber. Who then, are the alarmists preaching to? The smart minority that does not watch FOX and already agree with them? Waste of time if you ask me...

IT IS A PLOT OF THE OVERLORDS. They want to dumb down humans to cow-like status ripe for the pickin's. The scans of earth from space indicate that the highest concentration of the preferred nectar of glucose and protein is concentrated in human brains. (Insert that picture of the alien holding the word HUMANS in his hands). We are DOOMED. Thanks Faux! /sarcasm
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580. FOREX
Quoting 572. B183:

The 2:00 pm models do not agree .... It appears she is taking a more northerly track


the hh will let us know.
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DENVER - Gov. John Hickenlooper has issued a disaster declaration because of the ongoing flood that has trapped towns, killed several people and caused millions in damage to roads and buildings.

"We've approved disaster declaration & will request emerg. declaration from FEMA for search & rescue & emergency protective actions," Hickenlooper Tweeted Thursday morning.

Additionally, the City of Boulder's city manager has signed and issued a local disaster and emergency declaration. Jane Brautigam's declaration allows the city to request necessary support from the state to help the city respond to flooding.

Boulder County has been particularly hard-hit in the storms. The Town of Jamestown was evacuated and high waters isolated the Town of Lyons.

"Boulder County is experiencing a disaster today that is broad in scope and very dangerous in nature," said Boulder County Sheriff Joe Pelle during a 9 a.m. press conference. "We know that we've lost lives. We anticipate that as the day goes on we may discover that we've lost others."

Lafayette:


Lyons:


Lyons:


Thornton:


Boulder:


Boulder:

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520


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More people watched the devastating flash floods sweep though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning on FOX News than on any other cable news outlet...
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Quoting 562. LavosPhoenix:
Just interested, when is the last time we had three named storms in the Atlantic/Gulf at the same time (as per the NHC).
Very often have two fishes the same time.
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Quoting 569. southfla:
@Mr Mixon, please continue your updates on this very important unfolding weather story that was headlined by Dr. Masters in HIS blog post.

I rarely visit or post anymore due to the nastiness and intolerance in some of the comments the past two years. It is really out of hand. A few shouters and bullies have taken over the blog and it appears there is nothing that can be done about it. Yes I have put 79 people on ignore, but it doesn't help when others continually quote them. I am saddened these negative, abusvie posters continue to be given free rein to drive away the best and more reasoned posters.


The reason I don't post much either.
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Look at all the rain in WPB

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572. B183
Quoting 536. CaneHunter031472:


LOL, By the time they get there 93L will be well inland.

The 2:00 pm models do not agree .... It appears she is taking a more northerly track
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WOAH look at that random pressure drop!

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@Mr Mixon, please continue your updates on this very important unfolding weather story that was headlined by Dr. Masters in HIS blog post.

I rarely visit or post anymore due to the nastiness and intolerance in some of the comments the past two years. It is really out of hand. A few shouters and bullies have taken over the blog and it appears there is nothing that can be done about it. Yes I have put 79 people on ignore, but it doesn't help when others continually quote them. I am saddened these negative, abusvie posters continue to be given free rein to drive away the best and more reasoned posters.
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Quoting 545. Patrap:


An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico
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Quick question for the experts --

I have been watching the GOES floaters on 93L for the past few hours. To my untrained eyes, it appears on the visible images that the blob is moving NW. On the water vapor images, however, it appears to be moving NE.

Am I deceived or is their a simple meterological explanation for this?
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Quoting 556. will40:
prcane4you

they always do
You are the second one.The first one is TrollTrackerScott.
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First thunderstorm in around a month, and lightning strikes a house and catches it on fire. Really Mother Nature? I hope that family is ok
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:19Z
Date: September 12, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 16

19:19:00Z 21.433N 92.050W 977.2 mb
(~ 28.86 inHg) 269 meters
(~ 883 feet) 1007.6 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 129° at 18 knots
(From the SE at ~ 20.7 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 21.0 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
116.7%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 19:09:30Z (first observation), the observation was 163 miles (262 km) to the WNW (295°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.

At 19:19:00Z (last observation), the observation was 147 miles (237 km) to the NW (318°) from Campeche, Campeche, México
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Recon has descended. Pressure already at 1007.6mb.

191900 2126N 09203W 9772 00269 0076 +240 +220 129018 018 021 001 00
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Just interested, when is the last time we had three named storms in the Atlantic/Gulf at the same time (as per the NHC).
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561. VR46L
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* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL932013 09/12/13 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 44 49 51 56 59 62 65 64 64
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 44 49 51 56 59 62 45 33 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 43 47 51 58 66 50 34 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 14 18 18 15 6 5 7 4 6 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 -3 -1 -5 0 -2 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 264 244 242 230 222 240 236 285 297 294 263 287 261
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 155 154 154 153 155 159 159 158 157 157 155
ADJ. POT. INT. 146 140 137 136 134 133 136 143 142 139 138 139 137
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 8 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 10
700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 79 81 83 84 82 84 85 85 83
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 12 10 10 10 11 12 10 8
850 MB ENV VOR 99 91 103 107 103 117 100 116 92 95 92 98 88
200 MB DIV 106 78 74 52 59 90 108 104 124 99 74 67 49
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -4 0 0 0 2 -2 -3 -12 -4 -1 4
LAND (KM) 148 150 136 135 134 137 148 142 93 40 -61 -194 -337
LAT (DEG N) 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 3 2 1 1 2 6 7 5 6 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 17 16 17 17 17 17 18 22 29 25 0 0 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -3. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. 34. 34.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932013 INVEST 09/12/13 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932013 INVEST 09/12/13 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932013 INVEST 09/12/2013 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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getting close to the area....

19:06:30Z 22.200N 91.867W 540.8 mb
(~ 15.97 inHg) 5,229 meters
(~ 17,156 feet) - 240 meters
(~ 787 feet) From 85° at 26 knots
(From the E at ~ 29.9 mph) -2.3°C
(~ 27.9°F) -9.2°C
(~ 15.4°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph)
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:09Z
Date: September 12, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 15

19:09:00Z 22.017N 91.900W 668.3 mb
(~ 19.73 inHg) 3,523 meters
(~ 11,558 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 104° at 20 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 23.0 mph) 5.9°C
(~ 42.6°F) 3.8°C
(~ 38.8°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 18:59:30Z (first observation), the observation was 186 miles (300 km) to the NW (312°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.

At 19:09:00Z (last observation), the observation was 164 miles (263 km) to the WNW (296°) from Mérida, Yucatán, México.
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prcane4you

they always do
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Quoting 553. will40:
recon is descending now
They called you?
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Published on Sep 12, 2013

Colorado Flash Flood AMAZING Video: Man Rescued from Overturned Car during Severe Flood Boulder Colorado (CNN) -- Emergency crews in Colorado braved racing flood waters early Friday, rescuing a man from a partially submerged car, live on television.

The scene unfolded in video from CNN affiliate KCNC after a night of torrential rain that left at least two people dead amid rock slides and flash flooding that collapsed homes, put dams at risk and forced hundreds of people to evacuate.
Firefighters on a yellow dinghy bobbing in the swift waters rescued the man from the overturned car about 12 miles southeast of Boulder.

The man, whose identity wasn't immediately known, walked out of the water with the aid of firefighters. He was taken away on a stretcher. His condition was not immediately known.


Video from KNCN also showed two other vehicles, one dangling from the edge of a washed-out road, the other in the water beneath what appeared to be a telephone pole. The station said two people were rescued earlier and taken to a hospital.

In a separate incident, one person died after being trapped in a collapsed building, in Jamestown, Boulder County spokeswoman Gabbie Boerkircher said.
The circumstances of the other death weren't clear early Thursday, but the Colorado Springs Fire Department said on Twitter that the body had been recovered by a "heavy rescue team."

Numerous other buildings had collapsed, but it was unclear how many or if there were any other injuries, Boerkircher said. A rock slide was hampering access to the site.

About 20 miles north of Boulder, in Lyons, water was flowing over the tops of five dams, Boerkircher said. The dams had not broken, but emergency officials were monitoring them very closely, she said.

Officials urged residents in the county of 305,000 people to stay home and off flooded and sometimes impassible roads. City and county offices, as well as the University of Colorado-Boulder -- where minor flooding was reported -- were closed Thursday.

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recon is descending now
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Quoting 549. tater5500:
It just seems SO close to land to me...where is the stall they are talking about??


No stall, just a shift in gears.
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93L should have a good 3-4 days over water. Plenty of time for it to intensify into a hurricane.
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Boulder County Sheriff and Fire Live Audio Feed

Denver
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

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It just seems SO close to land to me...where is the stall they are talking about??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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