Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph)

Probably contaminated, but the baseline for rain contamination is 0.75in/hr where this was picked up in 0.51in/hr. Flight level winds don't reflect that strong of a system yet.

Not quite at where one would find the LLC per ASCAT yet.
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Quoting 643. GetReal:
Call all bloggers.The party has begun.
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What is going on with EX-98L??
Wow look at this EX-98L is at 55W and this is at 15.850N 57.467W Pressure: 1004MB to 1005MB and falling

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Quoting 632. RGVtropicalWx13:

ASCAT already confirmed a closed Low. Btw they just started.
True, ASCAT revealed a relatively broad closed circulation. I'd just like to receive confirmation from recon.
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Watching Twister.
Pretty good movie.
Fail to see how Rope Tornado, some like...multi-vortex waterspout/3 waterspouts within an eighth of a mile from each other, and a likely only an EF-0 "hopper" could do that much damage, such as picking up boats and instantly damaging barns though...
But..Hollywood.
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1005.2MB and dropping.

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Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8896
30-34kt spike on the graphic now.

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Quoting 623. TWTracker99:
Does anyone agree with me that we likely have Tropical Depression Ten or Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Bay of Campeche right now? I can't say for sure, but looking at the low pressures recon is finding, I wouldn't be surprised.

It's could very well be a tropical cyclone right now, but recon needs to find west winds for it to be classified.
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re: 612. hurricanehanna 2:48 PM CDT on September 12, 2013
Quoting hurricanehanna:

I haven't seen any W winds yet...I'm thinking we will.


Yes, I'm sure they'll find 'em... Minatitlan, MX, lying SW of 93L has been reporting WSW and SW winds 9-12...
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Quoting 625. prcane4you:
35 mhp is a TS.



no

40mph is a TS


25mph to 35mph is a TD
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39.6 knots (~ 45.5 mph)
Tropical Storm


the winds are there
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Quoting 624. NttyGrtty:


So what?
He meant may be he don't like Fox
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Quoting 630. Doppler22:
I am under a warning! Its been a while since I was under the last one. Quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60mph possible.
Where are you located?
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Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:49Z
Date: September 12, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 19

19:49:00Z 20.067N 92.717W 988.0 mb
(~ 29.18 inHg) 153 meters
(~ 502 feet) 1005.5 mb
(~ 29.69 inHg) - From 162° at 25 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 28.7 mph) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 22.2°C
(~ 72.0°F) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.4 mph) 13 mm/hr
(~ 0.51 in/hr) 37.1 knots (~ 42.6 mph)
Tropical Storm 148.3%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:39:30Z (first observation), the observation was 137 miles (220 km) to the WNW (289°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.

At 19:49:00Z (last observation), the observation was 143 miles (231 km) to the W (276°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
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Quoting 622. TheGreatHodag:


what exactly are the minimum winds at TD strength? (i know that 39 mph is the threshold for TS)


30-39mph is what the nhc tends to follow but its not really a rule, saffir simpson scale says <39mph.
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Quoting 619. MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressures continue to fall and winds are increasing, but west winds are yet to be found. Seems to be a rather broad area of low pressure.

194830 2006N 09243W 9879 00152 0054 +226 +226 159028 029 041 010 00

ASCAT already confirmed a closed Low. Btw they just started.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 564
20.100N 92.717W 987.9 mb
(~ 29.17 inHg) 152 meters
(~ 499 feet) 1005.4 mb
(~ 29.69 inHg) - From 159%uFFFD at 28 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 32.2 mph) 22.6%uFFFDC
(~ 72.7%uFFFDF) 22.6%uFFFDC
(~ 72.7%uFFFDF) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph)

I believe we have TS...if they find the W winds .....someone correct me if I'm wrong

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I am under a warning! Its been a while since I was under the last one. Quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60mph possible.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3768
Quoting 623. TWTracker99:
Does anyone agree with me that we likely have Tropical Depression Ten or Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Bay of Campeche right now? I can't say for sure, but looking at the low pressures recon is finding, I wouldn't be surprised.


no West winds found yet . until they show W winds no
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Quoting 583. Chucktown:


Very slow movement may create some upwelling. Not so sure the wind is going to be the big concern with this system, but the amount of rain that falls is going to be devastating.


I highly doubt it. It's expected to do a loop not stall.
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Quoting 623. TWTracker99:
Does anyone agree with me that we likely have Tropical Depression Ten or Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Bay of Campeche right now? I can't say for sure, but looking at the low pressures recon is finding, I wouldn't be surprised.
I'll agree that we have 10L if and when west winds are found. ;)
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The high pressure ridge over OK.is weak. We can expect to see 93L track at least to S Texas.
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Quoting 622. TheGreatHodag:


what exactly are the minimum winds at TD strength? (i know that 39 mph is the threshold for TS)
35 mhp is a TS.
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Quoting 585. Ameister12:

So?


So what?
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Does anyone agree with me that we likely have Tropical Depression Ten or Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Bay of Campeche right now? I can't say for sure, but looking at the low pressures recon is finding, I wouldn't be surprised.
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Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Recon already getting TD force winds.


what exactly are the minimum winds at TD strength? (i know that 39 mph is the threshold for TS)
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Quoting 599. barbamz:

Water vapor. Click to enlarge. Just looking at this I wouldn't have any idea that there are torrential ("unprecendented") rainfalls in Colorado.


Nice blob of clouds on the E coast of Central Amer.
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Station SACV4
EPA & Mexican Government Cooperative Program
Location: 19.174N 96.093W
Date: Thu, 12 Sep 2013 19:00:00 UTC
Winds: N (350) at 31.1 kt gusting to 35.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.73 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.8 F
Dew Point: 74.5 F
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Pressures continue to fall and winds are increasing, but west winds are yet to be found. Seems to be a rather broad area of low pressure.

194830 2006N 09243W 9879 00152 0054 +226 +226 159028 029 041 010 00
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Quoting 612. hurricanehanna:

I haven't seen any W winds yet...I'm thinking we will.
Stay tune.
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Quoting 609. DocNDswamp:
I'm curious to see where recon fixes the center of 93L and it's central pressure, my best guess (thru 1845Z sat imagery) appears about 19.5N 93.3W... and around 1005-1004 mb... motion seems W / WNW (285 degrees) near 12 mph, either 35 mph TD / 40 mph TS at advisory initiation.



Looks pretty dead on there Doc... The swirl is slightly exposed on the Sw side of the convection.
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Quoting 606. Ameister12:

Usually pressures like that are associated with a tropical depression, or a weak tropical storm.
Smart guy.You're right.
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Quoting 591. WalkingInTheSun:
Wow, sorry, but wonderful moderating today.
One side favored by the PC crowd gets to go off-topic and rant repeatedly, going on & on & on....
I wonder how many from the other viewpoint has been banned or would be if they said much. Rules are rules as long as the "other" side is affected alone.
The ranters are going to be allowed to keep on until someone talks back, then will get them banned. That is sort of like cyber-bullying, lol. People say they want "equality" or "fairness", but that is not it at all -- they want THEIR way, no arguments, no replies, the debate is over, only. I'm really rather moderate on all this, but hate to see the one-sided unfairness here.

No, I won't try to mediate, today.
This is my two-cents, & that's it.


If those who don't rant would just let them have their own way (nod, nod, wink, wink) and not respond they would stop. They feed off of cyber drama. Kind of sad, actually.
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Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Recon already getting TD force winds.


looking for a 1002 or so for pressure, if that can be found with 40mph winds it can skip TD status, which would be neat to see.
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Quoting 607. CybrTeddy:
Recon already getting TD force winds.

I haven't seen any W winds yet...I'm thinking we will.
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The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Martin County in Florida...
this includes the cities of... Stuart... Port Salerno... Palm City...
Jensen Beach... j and S Fish Camp... Indiantown...
southeastern St. Lucie County in Florida...
this includes the cities of... White City... Walton... Saint Lucie
nuclear Power Plant... Port Saint Lucie...

* until 430 PM EDT.

* At 235 PM EDT... weather spotters reported that 3 inches of rain
has fallen within the last hour in Port Saint Lucie with several
inches of standing water in low spots. Heavy rainfall is still
falling across southern Saint Lucie and Martin counties... and an
additional 2 to 3 inches of rain may be possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Advisory means heavy rainfall is causing or is likely to
cause ponding of water in urban areas and elevate river or stream
flows. Minor flooding may cause temporary Lane or Road closures...
but the threat of water entering homes and businesses is low.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause temporary flooding
of urban areas... such as highways... streets and intersections as
well as poor drainage areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely.


Lat... Lon 2712 8068 2720 8068 2743 8031 2742 8030
2740 8029 2736 8027 2739 8027 2743 8030
2745 8028 2728 8019 2727 8019 2721 8015
2712 8013 2695 8048 2695 8061


People must leave work earlier this afternoon as it will be challenging driving through the streets.
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Quoting 601. B183:
Please edumacate the unedumacated :-)..... what does that 1006mb pressure indicate?



Lower pressures indicate stronger storms. Higher pressures indicate clear skys with no rain.
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I'm curious to see where recon fixes the center of 93L and it's central pressure, my best guess (thru 1845Z sat imagery) appears about 19.5N 93.3W... and around 1005-1004 mb... motion seems W / WNW (285 degrees) near 12 mph, either 35 mph TD / 40 mph TS at advisory initiation.
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074
WGUS55 KBOU 121942
FFWBOU
COC069-122245-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FF.W.0057.130912T1942Z-130912T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
142 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 445 PM MDT

* AT 139 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THAT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS STILL FALLING OVER THE AREA.
FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNING AREA MAY ALSO CAUSE MUD SLIDES
NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDES CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...
VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LIVERMORE...TEDS PLACE...POUDRE PARK...BELLVUE AND VIRGINIA DALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...ROADS
AND CULVERTS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HIGH PARK BURN AREA. SOME
AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE RIST CANYON...BUCKHORN CREEK...REDSTONE
CANYON...STOVE PRAIRIE...AND GULCHES DRAINING INTO THE POUDRE CANYON
ALONG HIGHWAY 14. ROCK SLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ACROSS ROADS IN THE BURN AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD
ALSO TRIGGER ROCK SLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN.



LAT...LON 4099 10517 4062 10509 4061 10530 4099 10554



DANKERS

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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Recon already getting TD force winds.
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Quoting 601. B183:
Please edumacate the unedumacated :-)..... what does that 1006mb pressure indicate?

Usually pressures like that are associated with a tropical depression, or a weak tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 19:39Z
Date: September 12, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fifth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18

19:39:00Z 20.517N 92.500W 976.8 mb
(~ 28.84 inHg) 261 meters
(~ 856 feet) 1006.3 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 133° at 26 knots
(From the SE at ~ 29.9 mph) 23.3°C
(~ 73.9°F) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.9 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
103.6%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:29:30Z (first observation), the observation was 138 miles (222 km) to the WNW (303°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.

At 19:39:00Z (last observation), the observation was 136 miles (219 km) to the WNW (290°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
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Quoting 600. MrMixon:


Thanks. The latest fun is that the water from our well has suddenly turned brown/red. I think it's just iron, but I'm gonna go fetch my filter...

Also, just heard on the news that parts of Aurora are being evacuated (Aurora is a large suburb in eastern Denver, nearly the size of Denver itself. No details yet on which parts are being evacuated).



Unbelievable...this was the same area that suffered from the devastating wildfires last year, right ? I'm sure that is contributing to the flooding.
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Quoting 600. MrMixon:


Thanks. The latest fun is that the water from our well has suddenly turned brown/red. I think it's just iron, but I'm gonna go fetch my filter...

Also, just heard on the news that parts of Aurora are being evacuated (Aurora is a large suburb in eastern Denver, nearly the size of Denver itself. No details yet on which parts are being evacuated).



Hang in there dude!
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Station 42055 (LLNR 1101) - BAY OF CAMPECHE - 214 NM NE OF Veracruz, MX


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601. B183
Please edumacate the unedumacated :-)..... what does that 1006mb pressure indicate?
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Quoting 586. hurricanehanna:
579. MrMixon

I appreciate you showing us what is going on....this is just awful...and it sounds like things are going to get even worse.


Thanks. The latest fun is that the water from our well has suddenly turned brown/red. I think it's just iron, but I'm gonna go fetch my filter...

Also, just heard on the news that parts of Aurora are being evacuated (Aurora is a large suburb in eastern Denver, nearly the size of Denver itself. No details yet on which parts are being evacuated).

Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520

Water vapor. Click to enlarge. Just looking at this I wouldn't have any idea that there are torrential ("unprecendented") rainfalls in Colorado.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.