Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Quoting 746. Ameister12:
Pasch is forecasting that Humberto will begin to restrengthen by 120h.

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


It might have a run at Cat 2 or something way down the road. :P
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Significantly updated intensity forecast for Humberto, no longer forecasted to dip below 50mph and intensification expected to resume in some form.

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 707. MrMixon:
An intersection in Longmont, Colorado as it normally looks, and as it looked earlier today:



Hey Mr. Mixon - first fires and now floods? What's next on "the apocalypse is now" list?

In all seriousness, you and your loved ones stay safe.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Pasch is forecasting that Humberto will begin to restrengthen by 120h.

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some of the newer post confirming my belief that we might have Ingrid within the hour. Regardless of much development. This has a potential to bring over 20 inches of rain to the Mexican coast and thats being very conservative. If this can take advantage of the curvature of the BOC then thing can ramp up pretty quickly intensity-wise and we have a higher chance of the Texas coast see something.
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Quoting 727. txjac:


That's Allison rainfal amounts ...


More like 2 Allisons :O
Member Since: June 26, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
UMMMM ITS TURNING BLACK OUTSIDE FROM CLOUDS. Never seen this before, maybe ill get rain out of it. :3
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93 is a big system. could be severe flooding west coast of central america.rain.already
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Quoting 734. Civicane49:
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

GABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
EARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND
VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN
THE NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.4N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 36.3N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 40.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
So early and so short XD Gabrille feels neglect.I see we are about to have td 10 or ts Ingrid.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4459


Interesting pic given where RECON is finding the LLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
HURRICANE. DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB HAVE NOT YET DECREASED...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
75 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX A LITTLE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED
HERE AT DAYS 4-5.

THE NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT 350/12 KT. A LARGE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD
CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE
NEW TRACK GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting 728. Mexicanguy:
Hi guys, I´m a newbie here...I live in Coatzacoalcos Veracruz Port(southernmost part of GOM)...WSW Winds here, light rain at the moment. Waiting for the first squall of Ingrid hehe. Saludos amigos


Welcome! :D
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Quoting 700. nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013


Excerpt:

NOTE: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. HEAVIEST RAINS
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN/SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. MODELS ARE AGREEING ON SOME OF THESE AREAS
RECEIVING AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES OR 1000MM DURING THE NEXT 05
DAYS...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


Holy Crap!..The soils in the Veracruz state are already saturated, we don´t need more rain here... we can share with Texas for sure
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Quoting 700. nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013


Excerpt:

NOTE: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. HEAVIEST RAINS
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN/SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. MODELS ARE AGREEING ON SOME OF THESE AREAS
RECEIVING AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES OR 1000MM DURING THE NEXT 05
DAYS...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
That will be some very serious rainfall amounts that will most likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides. Based on that alone, Ingrid will likely be hitting the retirement books. The infamous "I" named storms may very well continue.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 29.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

GABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
EARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND
VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN
THE NHC FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 34.4N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 36.3N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 40.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Circulation is elongated from NW-SE. Pressure down to 1004.1mb.

202830 2010N 09328W 9658 00340 0041 +222 +216 106018 019 020 006 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 67.9W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM NW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Quoting 729. barbamz:
What is "Miss Piggy" exploring right now between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola? Or just relocating in order to be prepared for still 93L (Ingrid)?


Relocating
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Quoting 726. MiamiHurricanes09:
Winds on the southeast semicircle of the circulation appear to be at tropical storm force.


Not flight level
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What is "Miss Piggy" exploring right now between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola? Or just relocating to the GOM in order to be prepared for still 93L (Ingrid)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi guys, I´m a newbie here...I live in Coatzacoalcos Veracruz Port(southernmost part of GOM)...WSW Winds here, light rain at the moment. Waiting for the first squall of Ingrid hehe. Saludos amigos
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
727. txjac
Quoting 721. Hurricanes305:
It seem likely that we have 10L or maybe Ingrid in the BOC. Recon did find a closed LLC and very low atmospheric pressure. Meaning there is plenty of instability to work with. The fact that its going to sit in the BOC and Western Gulf is a dangerous though as it will have ample time intensify and dump a lot of rain in the next 5 days. Very serious situation unfolding there.



That's Allison rainfal amounts ...
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Winds on the southeast semicircle of the circulation appear to be at tropical storm force.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Experimental FIM-7 says something for everyone.







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Quoting MrMixon:
Some have explained that an inch or two of rain in Colorado is a big deal because our drainages are "flashy". This is true. Our soils are thin and our topography is steep, which means watersheds shed their water in a hurry, compared to other areas.

So think about this. An inch or two of rain is a big deal... and this is what we've gotten SO FAR...



...additional rain predictions I've heard range from 3-6" before this system is done with us sometime this weekend.


Wow....I live in a flash food area, which averages 30 inches per year. Our daily record was 12 inches, followed by 9 inches this past May. Not only do dry creeks and gullies turn into raging rivers etc, but infrastructure has difficulty planning for these extreme events.
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TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS! Got some dark green in there. :3

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Quoting 707. MrMixon:
An intersection in Longmont, Colorado as it normally looks, and as it looked earlier today:


Wow! That's some scary stuff. Stay safe up there Mixon!
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It seem likely that we have 10L or maybe Ingrid in the BOC. Recon did find a closed LLC and very low atmospheric pressure. Meaning there is plenty of instability to work with. The fact that its going to sit in the BOC and Western Gulf is a dangerous though as it will have ample time intensify and dump a lot of rain in the next 5 days. Very serious situation unfolding there.

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Quoting 714. SouthernIllinois:

I think the BOC near Veracruz is where this thing will make landfall.

Nope
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Quoting 714. SouthernIllinois:

I think the BOC near Veracruz is where this thing will make landfall.
He's not talking about the one in BOC.
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Quoting 700. nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013


Excerpt:

NOTE: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. HEAVIEST RAINS
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN/SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. MODELS ARE AGREEING ON SOME OF THESE AREAS
RECEIVING AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES OR 1000MM DURING THE NEXT 05
DAYS...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


Little more Nrn consensus.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
Seems like a good wind shift to me..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
715. SLU
Looks like 2013 is going to be a primarily Mexico event.

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Quoting 704. hurricanehanna:


Oh heck no
I give up.Let send him to CaribBoy.
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Quoting 710. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's going to be pulled northward by an approaching trough. Shouldn't be a threat to the Caribbean or Gulf. Maybe Bermuda.

I say nah ex-98L is still too weak to be pulled
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Quoting 709. Torito:


Yea it looked like it to me but i sometimes see things wrong. :P

No your right but it should not last long
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Quoting 703. wunderkidcayman:
I think this is the headlines in 45min or so

"..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO..."
You guys think this is what it may say



Yeah it could be big problems if this gets into the NW Caribbean and GOM

It's going to be pulled northward by an approaching trough. Shouldn't be a threat to the Caribbean or Gulf. Maybe Bermuda.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32532
Quoting 705. wunderkidcayman:

Very slightly elongated


Yea it looked like it to me but i sometimes see things wrong. :P
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Thank you for keeping us up to date. Hoping the worst is over for you but, looking at the forecast, it does not look good. My thoughts are with you and all those being affected from the heavy rains/flooding. Wish I could send you some of our "Hidden Valley" well water.

Quoting 670. MrMixon:
Some have explained that an inch or two of rain in Colorado is a big deal because our drainages are "flashy". This is true. Our soils are thin and our topography is steep, which means watersheds shed their water in a hurry, compared to other areas.

So think about this. An inch or two of rain is a big deal... and this is what we've gotten SO FAR...



...additional rain predictions I've heard range from 3-6" before this system is done with us sometime this weekend.


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An intersection in Longmont, Colorado as it normally looks, and as it looked earlier today:

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Quoting 700. nrtiwlnvragn:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013


Excerpt:

NOTE: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. HEAVIEST RAINS
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN/SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. MODELS ARE AGREEING ON SOME OF THESE AREAS
RECEIVING AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES OR 1000MM DURING THE NEXT 05
DAYS...
IN PARTICULAR DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


I'm not even sure to get that for the whole year! PITIFUL!!!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6429
Quoting 698. Torito:
LLC is oval shaped, it appears?


Very slightly elongated
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Quoting 702. prcane4you:
Biloxi?


Oh heck no
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I think this is the headlines in 45min or so

"..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO..."
You guys think this is what it may say

Quoting 693. opal92nwf:
This one could catch us by surprise. It has a very well defined surface circulation. And being so weak, this could pass through the Caribbean, and then get picked up by a trough and go north towards major land areas.

2. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.


Yeah it could be big problems if this gets into the NW Caribbean and GOM
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Quoting 696. hurricanehanna:

He is NOT allowed in NOLA
Biloxi?
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Quoting 685. duajones78413:
Where is Levi? havent seen a tidbit from him recently



hi

here is his tidbit from SEP 11th if any one missed it all so he said in his video that he been vary bussey and he has a new destop or laptop so that may be the reasons why he has not been able too do them so here the link from SEP video


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2013


Excerpt:

NOTE: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. HEAVIEST RAINS
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN/SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. MODELS ARE AGREEING ON SOME OF THESE AREAS
RECEIVING AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES OR 1000MM DURING THE NEXT 05
DAYS...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS
SITUATION WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
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Fire & rain-New Jersey has a major fire along the boardwalk multiple structures involved and the Control Tower at a Baltimore airport has been shut down by the FAA due to a lightning strike.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.