Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Quoting 892. stormwatcherCI:
Odds are it will. In the past 5 years the I storm was a hurricane. In the past 15 years only 1 I storm WAS NOT a hurricane.


Granted that that one storm was Ingrid. And the first time the name was used in the Atlantic... could be that she just doesn't want to ever be a hurricane ;)

Edit:
Aside from Ingrid in 2007, and excluding the couple of years where there were less than 9 named storms, the last time that the "I" storm actually failed to become a hurricane was in 1989 with Tropical Storm Iris.
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Close to hurricane status on the 18z at landfall.
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Quoting 946. Stormlover16:
Wow! Okay, my Ban is finally up :D I have lurked her for about four years, but with the recent influx of storms, I decided to make an account. I feel like 10L could become a major in its time. Then again, its track determines everything.


Welcome to the blog.
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Wow! Okay, my Ban is finally up :D I have lurked her for about four years, but with the recent influx of storms, I decided to make an account. I feel like 10L could become a major in its time. Then again, its track determines everything.
Member Since: September 11, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
Another meteorological freak. What a failure. Ugh I can't wait for this season to be over. I can't wait for winter to come.

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Boulder County Sheriff and Fire


Denver
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127549
Quoting 938. Bluestorm5:
I think I had 4 comments with 10 or more pluses today today... never got this much attention in one day. Thanks for the love, guys! :)
I minused out one of your comments.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Lakes in central Texas hit 60 year lows today and all time lows expected by October.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3224
18Z GFS at landfall
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I'm a long time lurker. I lurk because I'm not smart enough to converse with the people who are. I am smart enough to watch and learn. Starting last year the level of discussion started to go down and now is in a plunge. There are a number of smart people on this blog but I fear that they will go the way of Grothar. Who out there can't say that he didn't help get there day started. A world of knowledge that only time brings. Those who won't watch and learn need to be ignored.. Anyone that knows what blog Grothar went toplease send me an E-mail so I can join him. Now I will spend another 4 yrs lurking.
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Quoting 933. MrMixon:
I-36 northwest of Lyons has been completely washed out:



This is the main route between Lyons and Estes Park. Anyone who has ever visited Rocky Mountain National Park has probably driven over this stretch of road.

This whole situation is very tragic, and I hope that the rain lets up very soon and the city can begin to repair and rebuild. Thank you for keeping us updated with the most up-to-date local information.
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I think I had 4 comments with 10 or more pluses today today... never got this much attention in one day. Thanks for the love, guys! :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7900
Quoting 911. Ameister12:

When I googled "Hurricane Ingrid", I ended up coming across this. :P


Hurricanes on meth.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Confirmed (and updated from earlier) : BWI Airport had 5 strikes on the airfield today including the tower that led to the closing. A person in the Air Traffic Control Tower was injured...left via ambulance, but will be OK. That is good news.
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3631
Quoting 919. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only potential issue with 10L is Invest 90E in the East Pacific. If this gets going, wind shear from it would disrupt 10L and it would eventually be absorbed. However, 90E remains very broad...with multiple vorticies, actually...and very disorganized while 10L is becoming better defined, so right now, I don't think this will be an inhibitor.



Wow! Intense monsoonal winds.
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934. SLU
While this may not be an impressive high ACE storm, the potential for it to dump extreme levels of rain in Mexico could make it just as dangerous.

Could be the "storm of the year"

The curse of the "I" storm lives.



Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
I-36 northwest of Lyons has been completely washed out:



This is the main route between Lyons and Estes Park. Anyone who has ever visited Rocky Mountain National Park has probably driven over this stretch of road.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Slow movers in BOC can't be trusted:

On September 11, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave off the western coast of Africa. Tracking towards the west, the wave entered the Caribbean Sea several days later before merging with a broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean sea on September 23. Weak steering currents around the low caused it to slowly drift towards the Yucatán Peninsula while gradually becoming better organized. The system was classified as a tropical depression on September 27 while 70 nautical miles (130 km) south-southeast of Cozumel. The depression slowly moved over the Yucatán for the next several days, eventually emerging over the Bay of Campeche, where it was officially upgraded to Tropical Storm Opal.[2]

After languishing for days and nearly dissipating due to the ocean-cooling effect of its own rainfall, it rapidly intensified to a hurricane and began moving north across the Gulf of Mexico. It deepened to a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and a central pressure of 916 millibars (27.0 inHg)[1][3] possibly due to crossing the Loop Current.[2]

Opal approaching Pensacola, Florida
During this period of rapid strengthening, a small eye formed with a diameter of only about 6 miles (9.7 km). The hurricane then underwent an eyewall replacement cycle to a 60-mile (97-km) eye,[1] combined with increasing wind shear, causing the pressure to rise steadily over the next 8 hours to 940 millibars (28 inHg) as the maximum sustained winds diminished to 125 mph (201 km/h). Opal weakened still to 115 mph (185 km/h) before its final landfall in Santa Rosa Island, Florida on October 4.[2]
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Quoting 919. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The only potential issue with 10L is Invest 90E in the East Pacific. If this gets going, wind shear from it would disrupt 10L and it would eventually be absorbed. However, 90E remains very broad...with multiple vorticies, actually...and very disorganized while 10L is becoming better defined, so right now, I don't think this will be an inhibitor.




lol looks like a snaker is trying too fourm next too 90E be it look like its heading the other way
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Quoting 924. MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not instigating anything. If you aren't going to contribute to the blog with constructive posts, feel free to leave and not come back.
Wow! Just glad all of your 20,908 posts are constructive... Just an observation by me
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Although we do have an active Atlantic, this system (16W) in the WPac needs to be watched. Could cause some major problems for Japan in a couple days.
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Quoting 921. wxgeek723:


My comment was completely irrelevant to potential impacts in Mexico and I am far from indifferent for people that will be affected by a potentially significant tropical cyclone. I was merely stating Mexico has been a common place for storms to hit recently and it's not a make or break for the year. I also have a friend that lives there and would not wish that on her. You tried though.


Not picking on you, meant to delete the whole quote. However, I think folks on the coast of Mexico may have quite a different perspective than many others here on the blog.

I'll edit my post.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 907. LAbonbon:


It's a little concerning that the poster doesn't seem to understand why the water aisle is cleared out...

On a related note, where does your water come from? (Rivers/reservoirs, well water). That photo you posted earlier of the flooded water treatment plant got me wondering about where the local drinking water supplies and treatment facilities are.


Boulder County water is fascinating. I'm on a well myself, but water source varies across the county. Folks in most rural areas use wells.

Here's how the City of Boulder's water supply breaks down:

Barker Reservoir on Middle Boulder Creek – 40 percent

Silver Lake/Lakewood Watershed on North Boulder Creek – 40 percent

Boulder Reservoir, which is filled by Colorado River water – 20 percent

The rest of the towns in Boulder County source their water mostly from the Colorado River, meaning their water is transported across the Continental Divide via a series of ditches and tunnels.

Source: BigGreenBoulder
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
926. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
6:00 AM JST September 13 2013
======================================

Ogasawara Waters

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Man-yi (1000 hPa) located at 21.1N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.6N 141.0E- 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara Waters
45 HRS: 27.3N 137.9E- 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 33.5N 140.0E- 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Izu Islands Waters
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Quoting 909. wxgeek723:
I'm not really following how one landbound system heading into Mexico during the peak means the season can be considered active now? Unless you have really high standards as to what constitutes a bust, lol.

Seaside Heights:







Well, in terms of named storm count, it is above average.
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Quoting 863. washingtonian115:
Don't rile his head up/instigate please.Only decided to attack because he has back up from his Pal's.Teddy has been after me now for what ever stupid reason.But don't worry.I have a gift for them and every other person..
Link

Scroll down to post 22 please..
I'm not instigating anything. If you aren't going to contribute to the blog with constructive posts, feel free to leave and not come back.
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Quoting 916. wunderkidcayman:

So far season ain't that bad and so far it's the most active month so far and I think we could easily see 2 more storms before the end of the month
And I could see us getting 6-9 maybe 10 more (named) storms(including the 2 for this month) for the rest of the season



Edited
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"The Satellite Blog of the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies has just posted some dramatic remote sensing imagery of the continuing deluge here in Colorado. And in the explanation of what's been happening, the author of the post, Scott Lindstrom, concluded that the extraordinary amount of rainfall we've experienced here in the Boulder area 'Could be classified as a 1,000-year event.'

Make no mistake about it: The rainfall has simply been astonishing - upwards of 12 inches in less than 24 hours in some locations near Boulder. And it has caused quite a bit of devastating flooding, as well as two deaths in this area, and another one further south.

Scott Bachmeier a research meteorologist at CIMSS, a leading scientific institute devoted to remote sensing applications in meteorology. Bachmeier shares the writing duties at the satellite blog. And he told me that he finds the 1,000-year number to be 'believable.' Particularly in light of 'how unusual it is to get that large amount of rain in such a small amount of time.'

But he also admitted that he probably would not have used that figure himself had he been the author of the post. The reason: Accurate records go back only about a century. So it is difficult to really know how unusual this is in the context of many centuries. That said, 'It's not outrageous. And this has been an amazing event for sure.'"

Source: Discover



I'm not quite ready to bet money on the 1000-year number, but this is definitely a big, big flood.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
Quoting 917. daddyjames:


To those of you that disparage a system because its "going into Mexico", we do have members here in Mexico. While some of us have freinds and family in Mexico. So, why do't you show some respect and a little compassion.


My comment was completely irrelevant to potential impacts in Mexico and I am far from indifferent for people that will be affected by a potentially significant tropical cyclone. I was merely stating Mexico has been a common place for storms to hit recently and it's not a make or break for the year. I also have a friend that lives there and would not wish that on her. You tried though.
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Quoting 911. Ameister12:

When I googled "Hurricane Ingrid", I ended up coming across this. :P

That is the most pathetic fake image I've ever seen
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The only potential issue with 10L is Invest 90E in the East Pacific. If this gets going, wind shear from it would disrupt 10L and it would eventually be absorbed. However, 90E remains very broad...with multiple vorticies, actually...and very disorganized while 10L is becoming better defined, so right now, I don't think this will be an inhibitor.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31456
Quoting 911. Ameister12:

When I googled "Hurricane Ingrid", I ended up coming across this. :P

Well, that escalated quickly
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3631


To those of you that disparage a system because its "going into Mexico", we do have members here that are in Mexico. While some of us here have friends and family in Mexico. So, why don't you show some respect and a little compassion.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
So far season ain't that bad and so far it's the most active month so far and I think we could easily see 2 more storms before the end of the month
And I could see us getting 6-9 maybe 10 more (named) storms(including the 2 for this month) for the rest of the season

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Quoting 870. IKE:
Nothing coming around here anytime soon....from Mobile,AL.....

.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY...AND THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS.

Here's what Tallahassee says:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
255 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2013

Long term [sunday through thursday]...
a fairly benign weather pattern will persist through the long term
period. Sunday begins with a dissipating stalled frontal boundary
draped across the Florida/Georgia border. Deep layer ridging builds over the
northern Atlantic, thus keeping our forecast area along the southern
periphery of the subtropical ridge. This translates to deep layer
easterly flow through the period. Model guidance is in good
agreement that our area will be under a dry air mass, especially
at the mid levels. Therfore, we have maintained near or slighly
below climatological pops and temperatures through the period.

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A little surprised not forecasting hurricane Ingrid with so much time in the Gulf. Would not be surprised if that changes tomorrow.
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Quoting 911. Ameister12:

When I googled "Hurricane Ingrid", I ended up coming across this. :P
img src="">
LOL Epic. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 891. Bluestorm5:


Remind me of June 2013 derecho that hit my area... this is by far the best picture I've taken of storms.


That is a gorgeous picture, thank you for sharing.
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Quoting 906. CybrTeddy:


Bingo, an anemic letdown.

When I googled "Hurricane Ingrid", I ended up coming across this. :P
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Quoting 898. daddyjames:


Its not really going to matter if it makes hurricane strength, really, for the main impact it'll have. If it significantly taps into the moisture from the Pacific, rain is the main threat - regardless of how strong the winds get.


Yep..a rainmaker for sure
Member Since: September 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 9
I'm not really following how one landbound system heading into Mexico during the peak means the season can be considered active now? Unless you have really high standards as to what constitutes a bust, lol.

Seaside Heights:





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Quoting 849. LurknLearn:


How is flash flooding that is causing deaths lucky?
The blogger expressed the desire for the rains. The implication is that the 6-inches would not bring disaster in that blogger's location.

Good afternoon all. It's sad to see the rain causing so much havoc over the mountains while there are still drought areas to the south east.

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Quoting 897. MrMixon:
You folks in hurricane alley can probably relate to this one:



Not such a common scene for Colorado...



It's a little concerning that the poster doesn't seem to understand why the water aisle is cleared out...

On a related note, where does your water come from? (Rivers/reservoirs, well water). That photo you posted earlier of the flooded waste water treatment plant got me wondering about where the local drinking water supplies and treatment facilities are.

EDIT - wastewater treatment plant flooded in the earlier photo, not water treatment plant
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Quoting 900. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Without looking was it 2007 version of Ingrid?


Bingo, an anemic letdown.
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Quoting 874. LAbonbon:


I've been listening to the Boulder County Sheriff and Fire Live Audio Feed for the last few hours. The folks being rescued, evacuated, sheltering in place, etc., are not all irresponsible. Many are in a situation where the water is coming to them, not the other way around.


This is the responsability of the politics, who didn't think to water evacuation.
The only thing I wish is to have heavy rain here, because everybody have rain, just us stay without rain since months...
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Nate was sitting over a nice area of 0 TCHP when it formed, upwelling occurred pretty quick.


10L though has it a bit better.
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Quoting 862. DellOperator:
The cone is unusually wide for such a short distance. Unlike most of the season's previous packages, I guess this one is expected to crawl rather than sprint, though it looks like it is moving pretty well.

Plus some shear is effecting it making it shallow on the west. Looks as though it might jog south of west but don't know if that is a rotational illusion.

Any thought?


Weak steering currents will prevent any definitive forecast of motion. A random walk for a while. When it starts feeling any significant influence from the ridge in a few days - that is when the cone will narrow.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
Quoting 889. Ameister12:
I think we could very well see 4-5 more named storms by November 30th. I wouldn't consider 14-15 total named storms this season to be a bust.
I am sorry but if all of that storms are between 40 to 45mph then I will call it a bust. A season should have ts,hurricanes and majors,and so far only 1 have reach hurricane status.
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mmmm? Something going on in the central caribbean. Little bit of a spin going on.
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Quoting 892. stormwatcherCI:
Odds are it will. In the past 5 years the I storm was a hurricane. In the past 15 years only 1 I storm WAS NOT a hurricane.
Without looking was it 2007 version of Ingrid?
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 894. Ameister12:

Wow! Very ominous looking shelf cloud? What kind of conditions did you get as the storm passed through?

It rained. Lol It did rain pretty hard, it was VERY windy and there were a few power flashes. Alot of wires are down around tho, and it hailed a little
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3631

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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