Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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Quoting 1844. VR46L:


LMAO



I'm impatient...what can I say.
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting 1838. Stormlover16:
So I see we have three named systems at once. In 2013? Wow!


ALL of these systems are boring.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6415
1847. GatorWX
Quoting 1841. taco2me61:


Yelp and not a one may end up being no more than a "Rain Maker" :o)

Which I like "Very Much"

Taco :o)


Mexico says they don't like the rain-maker!
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Starting.to.think.my.spacebar.is.broke
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9645
Quoting 1833. VR46L:


True but the fronts are starting to restart , but they never really stopped this season .. the question now is are they going to leave a tail in the Gulf or close it down for business!


Yes, i agree, if the fronts do set up not the steering pattern folks on the Gulf Coast/FL necessarily wish to see. Well see what October will bring. Nothing bad, we can hope.
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1844. VR46L
Quoting 1817. hurricanehanna:
I think I just broke my F5 key between the Navy site and the NHC site lol


LMAO

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6949
Quoting 1826. redwagon:


First, TD10 has to push off the wall and start swimming. A Nrn center re-loc could do that. It isn't even doin donuts like Nate, it's just.... sitting there. I am curious about that long band of convection it slung up the Ern coast of MX, what cause that?



Interaction with the ULL to its Northwest?
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1842. GatorWX
Quoting 1831. barbamz:



Barcelona right now.


Source


That's what I want, SUNSHINE!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 1838. Stormlover16:
So I see we have three named systems at once. In 2013? Wow!


Yelp and not a one may end up being no more than a "Rain Maker" :o)

Which I like "Very Much"

Taco :o)
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Quoting 1788. barbamz:




Hi, Daddy. Uneventfull, quite chilly weather at my place near Frankfurt. Heater isn't on yet, and the housekeeper, who could do that, is on holidays in Scottland - where they (whole UK) are experiencing
their first autumn storm. Ireland as well, I think.


Can't wait until it makes its way over to me! Love the autumn storms. Lots of wind and rain. Hopefully this one won't cause flooding, but they nomally do cause some localised flooding in places. This current low won't be felt in full force until Sunday (with gusts of 60-70mph or more expected), but it's already starting to bring some heavy rain to many parts on the UK.
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1839. hydrus

Man-yi looks large and will likely be a big newsmaker if it hits land.
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So I see we have three named systems at once. In 2013? Wow!
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1837. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 1826. redwagon:


First, TD10 has to push off the wall and start swimming. A Nrn center re-loc could do that. It isn't even doin donuts like Nate, it's just.... sitting there. I am curious about that long band of convection it slung up the Ern coast of MX, what cause that?


Yeah it certainly looks stuck down there. Not sure about the convection band. The only way we're supposed to get anything from Ingrid up here is if a trough comes through next week and picks up its remnant moisture. Still depends on if it can gain some latitude.
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1835. hydrus
Quoting 1832. Tazmanian:
not evere day you get a TS and a TD hiting MX at the same time
I agree...Its downright rare.
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Quoting 1604. daddyjames:


There still is hope for you CB




XD
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1833. VR46L
Quoting 1795. daddyjames:


Yeah, but it has been a BOC/GOM kinda year. Contrary to what everyone was thinking

A pattern not necessarily what one would want to see going into October.

Models have everything quiet for the next week or so, guess we will have to wait and see.


True but the fronts are starting to restart , but they never really stopped this season .. the question now is are they going to leave a tail in the Gulf or close it down for business!
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not evere day you get a TS and a TD hiting MX at the same time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115343
1831. barbamz
Quoting 1815. GatorWX:


San Diego-ish. Love it! I can't wait!!!!!! Three more waiting days :( Mid to upper-70's/mid to upper-60's, sounds perfect. 50-70% chance of rain Tuesday, our first day. Oh well! Maybe they'll have it wrong.



Barcelona right now.


Source
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1830. Patrap
MASTERMIND: Dr. Jeff Masters
TANYA MUZUMDAR | WEDNESDAY, MARCH 23, 2011


At the same time, the Internet was just getting off the ground. As part of his advisor Perry Samson's class: "Interactive Weather Computing", he wrote a text-based program that made weather information available online to anyone on campus. Then Ann Arbor-based Merit Network, which ran the Internet backbone at the time, took notice.

"They wrote a couple subroutines for my program, I plugged them in, and then – presto! We had weather info available for any place in the world on the Internet," Masters recounts. Within nine months of launch, in 1992 the program was the most popular service of any kind on the worldwide net.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting 1794. redwagon:


My Austin chances are starting Sunday 20,50,70,80,60,20 - almost a week of rain, unheard of - and they've been this way for 6 days, way before Ingrid crossed the BOC.

Somebody, somewhere is sure of a near TX/MX landfall.


Well if 10 comes in across the North Mexican/South Padre Coast we could see some precip from the upper right quadrant outer rain bands. I'll take anything at this point :) It just really depends on how much moisture this thing picks up over the water and how far North it goes before turning inland. Either way its the best chance a significant part of TX has had for any decent rain in a while.
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000
WTPZ33 KNHC 131501
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.3
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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we all so got TD 13 E in the E pac
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115343
Quoting 1807. AtHomeInTX:


Wow! Hope ya get those rains Red. :)


First, TD10 has to push off the wall and start swimming. A Nrn center re-loc could do that. It isn't even doin donuts like Nate, it's just.... sitting there. I am curious about that long band of convection it slung up the Ern coast of MX, what cause that?
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Ingrid on the NHC site, 40kt winds.
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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT25 KNHC 131459
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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1821. hydrus
Quoting 1790. Patrap:
There is no debate, only a perceived one.

Even NOAA Knows dat.



Sip, ahhhhh'

Global Climate Change Indicators


I cannot believe some argue that the Earths atmosphere is not warming. I can even understand if one wants to argue evidence, but to say it is NOT warming is like arguing about whether or not water is wet.
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and she is born....
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting 1813. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

This should seal TD10's fate towards Mexico, no?




About time for Doc's morning update.



It doesn't seal anything. Most of the models are showing a stalling and then a NW pattern, including the ECMWF which probably has the best handle on this system.
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I think I just broke my F5 key between the Navy site and the NHC site lol
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Quoting 1812. Torito:
If he gets it back, I wonder if he will look the same, or less organized..


I'd guess better organized, perhaps it'll be like Gordon and Kirk last year.
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1815. GatorWX
Quoting 1792. barbamz:


Hi, Josh. Already excited because of your trip to Spain? Weather forecast for Barcelona for the next week is very fair and pleasant. Dry, warm, but not too hot :)


San Diego-ish. Love it! I can't wait!!!!!! Three more waiting days :( Mid to upper-70's/mid to upper-60's, sounds perfect. 50-70% chance of rain Tuesday, our first day. Oh well! Maybe they'll have it wrong.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
1814. Torito
Quoting 1813. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

This should seal TD10's fate towards Mexico, no?




About time for Doc's morning update.



Yes, unfortunately its going to mexico now.
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Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

This should seal TD10's fate towards Mexico, no?




About time for Doc's morning update.

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1812. Torito
If he gets it back, I wonder if he will look the same, or less organized..
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1811. Torito
Wow the pressure jump up a bit on that advisory... 984 to 991.
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Quoting 1797. Torito:


Yea, I doubt he will get back to hurricane status once he loses it later today.


00z ECMWF 144 hours.


06z GFS 144 hours.


Not the last we've seen of Hurricane Humberto, might not even have hit peak yet in its life.
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Humberto expected to become a hurricane again in 5 days per the NHC.
Cody... :/

INIT 13/1500Z 24.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 25.4N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 28.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 32.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
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Humberto is forecast to reattain hurricane intensity in 120 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 24.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 25.4N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 26.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 28.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 32.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
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Quoting 1794. redwagon:


My Austin chances are starting Sunday 20,50,70,80,60,20 - almost a week of rain, unheard of - and they've been this way for 6 days, way before Ingrid crossed the BOC.

Somebody, somewhere is sure of a near TX/MX landfall.


Wow! Hope ya get those rains Red. :)
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1806. Torito


...HUMBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 31.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST. HUMBERTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
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1805. GatorWX
I know.. But it's not worth it.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 1789. VR46L:


Got a be selfish .. I am relieved that he is not building up to be a major on the outer border of the tropical Atlantic ...


Eh, don't count him out yet . . .
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One recon out, another on the way in.
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1802. Torito
Quoting 1798. CybrTeddy:


It'll be back in a few days, stronger than ever if the models are right.



Yea, but at this point I take the model data with a grain of salt, considering how poorly they have done so far this year.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 31.3W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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1800. Patrap
Dr. Masters will be posting his rewrite of his 1989 Hunting Hugo NOAA Flight Met experience that almost took his Life and all aboard the Hurricane Hunter P-3 Orion.

"It was a long fascination that began when I was a boy," he recalls. In elementary school Masters kept exhaustive weather records and planted a weather station with a little swinging vane in his Birmingham, Michigan backyard. He received bachelors and masters degrees in meteorology from the University of Michigan, where he later returned for his PhD in air pollution meteorology. During the seven-year break between graduate programs, he worked as a Miami-based flight meteorologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Aircraft Operations Center. It was there, as a member of NOAA's Hurricane Hunters team, that the weather nearly whipped him for good.

Thick dark clouds suddenly envelop the aircraft. A titanic fist of wind, three times the force of gravity, smashes us. I am thrown into the computer console, bounce off, and for one terrifying instant find myself looking DOWN at a precipitous angle at Sean across the aisle from me...

Masters writes in "Hunting Hugo", his account of the team's near-disastrous 1989 flight into the eye of Hurricane Hugo on a mission to study the mechanisms responsible for hurricane intensification. Their radar system failed on approach, the storm turned out to be a category 5 tempest and that was just the eye-opener. The plane withstood 196-mph wind gusts, an engine fire, and a 200-pound life raft torpedoing into the ceiling. It's still in service today, Masters says.
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Quoting 1788. barbamz:




Hi, Daddy. Uneventfull, quite chilly weather at my place near Frankfurt. Heater isn't on yet, and the housekeeper, who could do that, is on holidays in Scottland - where they (whole UK) are experiencing
their first autumn storm. Ireland as well, I think.


VR was saying something about rain the other day ;)

Quiet is good, you all had enough action earlier this year. Cold, blah. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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