Flash Floods Kill 3 in Colorado; Dangerous 93L Developing in Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013

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Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast that pushed up against the mountains. These sort of upslope rain events are so-named because as the air flows uphill, it expands and cools, forcing the moisture in it to fall as rain. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station. The total precipitable water (PW), which is how much water would fall at the ground if the entire amount of water vapor through the depth of the atmosphere was condensed, was 1.33" at 12Z (8 am EDT) on September 12, and 1.31" at 00Z September 12. The previous September record was 1.23", set on September 10, 1980. Balloon soundings began in 1948. Wednesday night's rainfall was heaviest near Boulder, Colorado, where a flash flood watch continues through Thursday evening. Though rainfall amounts today are not expected to be as great as on Wednesday, the soils are saturated, and additional flash flooding will occur today as an upper-level low centered over the southern Great Basin continues to pull a moist southeasterly surface flow of air across Eastern Colorado. A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Figure 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado on Wednesday evening, September 11, 2013. Photo posted by brandish on Instagram @photogjake.


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rainfall for the Colorado's Front Range from the September 11 - 12 flash flood event. Rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" (dark rad colors) were indicated near Boulder (circle with a "+" symbol), and confirmed by rain gauge measurements.


Video 1. Flooding in Boulder, Colorado at 36th and Colorado Street on Wednesday night, September 11, 2013.

Dangerous 93L developing in the Gulf of Mexico
A low pressure system (Invest 93L) over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche is generating heavy rains over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters as it moves west-northwest at about 5 mph. Radar loops from Mexico show that 93L has a pronounced rotation and is developing low-level spiral bands, and there is a strong possibility that the Air Force hurricane hunter plane scheduled to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon will find that a tropical depression has formed. Satellite loops show only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, but these are steadily growing in intensity and areal coverage. The atmosphere is unusually moist, ocean temperatures are a very warm 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F), and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. These favorable conditions for development are expected to continue through Monday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The computer models predict a landfall location along the Mexican coast between Veracruz and a location a few hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border by early next week. The storm is expected to maintain a forward speed of about 5 mph during the coming five days, and this slow motion will potentially allow 93L enough time to intensify into a hurricane before landfall. The high levels of moisture and slow motion of 93L make it a very dangerous rainfall threat, and I expect rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches will affect portions of the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Brownsville, Texas over the next five days. An added danger is the presence of tropical disturbance 90E in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, on the other side of Mexico. If 93L intensifies sufficiently, it could draw in the moisture from 90E across Southern Mexico, resulting in torrential rains on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of Southern Mexico. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day odds of development of 60% and 5-day odds of 80%.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Ten.

Humberto peaks in intensity
Hurricane Humberto is headed northwards over the far Eastern Atlantic, and has likely peaked in strength, with 85 mph winds. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest appearance of the season's first hurricane since 1941. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye, but the storm has moved over waters cooler than 26°C, and wind shear has risen to 20 knots, which will likely cause weakening over the next few days. Humberto is not expected to be a threat to any land areas.

Gabrielle heads towards Canada
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is headed northwards to Canada after bringing 40 mph winds and just over an inch of rain to Bermuda on Tuesday night. Satellite loops show that wind shear has ripped up Gabrielle, leaving the storm with almost no heavy thunderstorms, and exposing the low level circulation to view. Wind shear is expected to rise to an extremely high 45 - 70 knots on Friday as Gabrielle encounters a trough of low pressure, which will likely destroy the storm. Gabrielle's remnants will likely bring heavy rain to the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Friday and Saturday.

Jeff Masters

After the Rain (mtnwoman67)
Lots of rain in Colorado for weeks. Last evening's setting sun gave us a great show east of us.
After the Rain

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okay, well goodnight to all wunderbloggers everywhere...need to try to get an extra hour of sleep tonight.

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Flash Flood Emergency for Boulder area


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
903 PM MDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO...

* UNTIL 200 AM MDT

* AT 901 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING WAS OCCURRING...INCLUDING
THE BIG THOMPSON CANYON AND THE CITY OF LOVELAND.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR THE BIG THOMPSON CANYON AND
LOVELAND. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION! TRAVEL IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LOVELAND...ESTES PARK...BERTHOUD AND DRAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE
THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL
ALSO TRIGGER ROCK SLIDES OR DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 4026 10512 4027 10563 4043 10571 4046 10496
4039 10496 4036 10506

$$

BARJENBRUCH
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Quoting 1292. GetReal:


I know that it is hard to disagree with the paid experts when it comes to motion of a system...


GR, good point, know what you mean. This is a mostly broad area of low pressure. Center can move around, especially in weak steering, and can even relocate with another vortice. Most definitely can have a motion shift, and likely given the evolving setup.
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Nice to see Chris getting his hand in again.
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Quoting 1263. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Humberto is becoming massive. ASCAT of the eastern side:


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
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TD 10's track shifted slightly northern and raise the intensity by 5 mph to 65 mph. Still on the low side still.
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1293. scott39
TD 10 is stationary.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1292. GetReal


I know that it is hard to disagree with the paid experts when it comes to motion of a system...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8802
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

MICROWAVE IMAGERY...FROM METOP AND SSMIS...INDICATE THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BECOMING DISLOCATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
HUMBERTO. SO WHILE THE HURRICANE IS STILL PRODUCTING QUITE COLD
CLOUD TOPS...WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN. THE
INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH THE LOWER ADT. A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO GROW LARGER...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUT ALMOST 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING CAUSED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF OVER 30 KT...PRIMARILY
DUE TO A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF HUMBERTO. THIS STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. AT THE LONGER
TIME RANGE...THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO LESSEN DUE TO THE FILLING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE HUMBERTO ALSO REACHES WARMER WATERS. THE
GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS REDUCTION IN SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT
THREE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL WAITS UNTIL FOUR OR EVEN FIVE
DAYS FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THIS DIFFERENCE LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER IT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND BELOW IT THEREAFTER.

HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING AT 10 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS IT
IS PROGRESSING THROUGH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT A
DAY...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE REBUILDS NEAR THE AZORES AND
SHOULD ABRUPTLY TURN HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY DAY
FIVE...HUMBERTO SHOULD BE ROUNDING THIS RIDGE AND BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...BUT ARE
SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LAST ADVISORY AND AN AVERAGE OF
THE GFS/ECMWF/FIM GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 23.4N 29.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 24.4N 30.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 26.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 34.5N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...HUMBERTO REMAINING A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 29.7W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Been a long work day, so not had much time to look at much. Tell ya, really lots of hurt up in Colorado, sad. Ever eat Sonic? Just finished a #2 cheeseburger/fries, was actually really good or I was really hungry. ;)

Anyways, looking at maps and loops now, TD10 most definitely has an opportunity to come more northwards. Looks to be stalled sitting in between the two ULLs fighting, tugging, venting and shearing over it. TD10 must be in high demand! ;) Looks to be stalled, very weak steering. Our blogger cmckla's GoM high pressure, the 1016mb iso, has vaporized with the diving trough. And, the the 1012 mb iso bubble it was in yesterday has given way now to an 1008mb iso. Very weak steering. Shear relaxes, system gains a bit more structure, deepens, edges poleward, may be enough to feel the trough and come considerably more northwards still.



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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

ONCE AGAIN DEEP CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED NEAR THE CENTER
OF GABRIELLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT THIS COULD
BE GENEROUS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR
PERHAPS A LITTLE SOONER.

GABRIELLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 9 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. GABRIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 35.1N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 38.0N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 43.8N 64.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 67.7W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
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Quoting 1280. BahaHurican:
IIRC somebody did post about it. Lots of "anniversaries" yesterday.... :/


And it is also weird that during the 9/11 attacks, there was a huge hurricane just off the coast of New England,
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.
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Quoting 1267. Bluestorm5:
We lost Boulder.



oh no....
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST
STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A
BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA...
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS
STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LARGER THAN USUAL.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 19.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser:


LIFE THREATENING SITUATION! immediate evacuations ordered for residents of multiple Commerce City's Irondale neighborhoods. Jim Cantore , KFOR-TV , Sean Schofer TVN

Dam expected to breech in the next hour releasing an expansive wall of water 15-20 ft deep... If this estimate is even close to accurate this would have devastating impacts for these Northeast Denver communities.

Exact neighborhoods ordered for evac and more details are listed here at NBC affiliate Denver.
http://www.9news.com/news/article/354911/71/Dam-f ailure-prompts-more-evacs
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Quoting 1276. FunnelVortex:
We should have mentioned this yesterday, but 21 years ago, on September 11th 1992, hurricane iniki hit Hawaii as a Category 4.

IIRC somebody did post about it. Lots of "anniversaries" yesterday.... :/
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Humberto


10
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Quoting 1271. TheGreatHodag:


(insert expletive here)
Any rain up ur way?
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 111534
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 12/1515Z C. 13/0900Z
D. 19.5N 93.0W D. 19.5N 94.0W
E. 12/1745Z TO 12/2100Z E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1530
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES AS
LONG AS SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE GLOBAL HAWK MISSION FOR 13/1100Z INTO
HURRICANE HUMBERTO OR BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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We should have mentioned this yesterday, but 21 years ago, on September 11th 1992, hurricane iniki hit Hawaii as a Category 4.

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1275. scott39
Quoting 1268. GeoffreyWPB:


Not really. But will see what happens. That will be quite a model shift...

They are creeping more N.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
2013SEP13 014500 2.6 1003.6 37.0 2.6 3.0 3.1 0.2T/hour OFF OFF -15.66 -40.51 CRVBND N/A N/A 19.71 94.08 FCST GOES13 31.7
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1273. MrMixon
Quoting 1214. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just terrible...flooding in Boulder, CO which has taken the lives of 3 people.



Cool Dual Waterspouts over Lake Michigan:





Just for the record, all of the people involved in the photo above were rescued safely. One remains in the hospital, but I believe he is expected to recover.
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Quoting 1267. Bluestorm5:
We lost Boulder.

@lauren_lanier 55m
Was just told by a police officer that there is no way in it or out of Boulder. All roads to get in or out are barricaded. #boulderflood

wow...
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 10 Comments: 3269
Quoting 1267. Bluestorm5:
We lost Boulder.

@lauren_lanier 55m
Was just told by a police officer that there is no way in it or out of Boulder. All roads to get in or out are barricaded. #boulderflood


(insert expletive here)
Member Since: January 13, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
Quoting 1257. unknowncomic:
STORMW II?

...not exactly...that guy made inappropriate offers.
I know because I received one.
Strange and sad that was.
Grothar was (and still is) always a gentleman and upright blog citizen.
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There's actually positive velocity potential across the Atlantic right now.

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Quoting 1262. GeoffreyWPB:


You are a smart guy. Will copy and paste when we see the final outcome.


Not really. But will see what happens. That will be quite a model shift...

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We lost Boulder.

@lauren_lanier 55m
Was just told by a police officer that there is no way in it or out of Boulder. All roads to get in or out are barricaded. #boulderflood
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Quoting 1250. redwagon:


I guess the embankment has failed, sounds like they had a firm plan to get everyone out.


That is wicked, redwagon...historic flooding...
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1265. txjac
Quoting 1264. scott39:
I was speaking of my safety. I live on the Al. Gulf Coast. I due believe that TD 10 has a shot to come N. due to the weakness in the ridge.


time will tell ...
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1264. scott39
Quoting 1259. txjac:


What makes you say that?
I was speaking of my safety. I live on the Al. Gulf Coast. I do believe that TD 10 has a shot to come N. due to the weakness in the ridge.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Humberto is becoming massive. ASCAT of the eastern side:

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Quoting 1256. scott39:
Definitely at a TX/LA landfall.


You are a smart guy. Will copy and paste when we see the final outcome.
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1261. GatorWX
Quoting 1238. daddyjames:


Here are the top 10 storms that 10L compares with based on rainfall. TD11 (1999) dumped 43 inches at one location.

TEN

Results ranked from best match to worst match, with ties being won by the earlier storm.
ELEVEN 1999
DORA 1956: No graphic available.
LORENZO 2007: No graphic available.
ROXANNE 1995
DOLLY 1996
NATE 2011: No graphic available.
HENRI 1979
MITCH 1998
INEZ 1966
BRENDA 1973:

A link to the page that provides this.
LINK


It's the widespread totals that worry me. It's a very mountainous region and a very large storm regarding conventive extent.


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1260. scott39
I think Mexico will get the W side of TD 10.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1259. txjac
Quoting 1256. scott39:
Definitely at a TX/LA landfall.


What makes you say that?
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1258. MrMixon
Quoting 1217. daddyjames:


Come to think of it, Mr. Mixon (a blogger in that area) went to go outside and check on things, and never came back . . .

Not joking.
Quoting 1222. Catherdr:


Hopefully, he has lost only his internet connection....
Quoting 1226. txjac:


I was just thinking the same thing.
Hopefully he rejoins us soon and gives us an update


Thanks for the concern - things are fine here. Since I went to all the trouble to suit up and get water resistant I stayed out until I ran out of light. Things are OK in our immediate vicinity. I mean, they are wetter than I've ever seen them, yes, but the house is high and dry and our driveway is passable. We have mushrooms growing out of our mushrooms and the little wash behind our house, which was bone dry this time last year, is flowing at bank-full. Rain has picked up since the sun went down.



I'm just now getting back online (my wife stole my laptop while I was out walking). Will post updates while I can, but I'm seeing email reports of landlines (telephone) going down in our area and some folks have lost power. Frankly, I'm amazed I've had internet and power all day, save for a few brownouts this morning.

We do have a generator and plenty of propane for boiling water and heating the house (the furnace kicked on a few times last night).
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Quoting 1249. Chicklit:

Grothar leaves and everything goes to hell...
STORMW II?
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1256. scott39
Quoting 1254. GeoffreyWPB:


You are safe Scott.
Definitely at a TX/LA landfall.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting 1231. opal92nwf:
Hmmm .... the Canaries are seeing some of Humberto's outflow... how often does THAT happen....
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Quoting 1247. scott39:
TD 10 is less organized than it was earlier today due to 20nts of wind shear. Shear should become more favorable over the next 48 hours. An anticyclone should be in place also. Look for the ridge to weaken on about day 4. This should allow TD 10 to track farther N. I wouldnt be suprised to see a TX/LA landfall.


You are safe Scott.
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Quoting 1240. BahaHurican:
[RATE...ATE... ate...]

No need to shout... the blog is so quiet right now even a whisper is audible... lol

To answer the question... I know models yesterday were suggesting something off to our east [N of Hispaniola, I think] in about 5 or so days... but I dunno if that's as likely today as it seemed yesterday....
I know you want a quiet season in the islands so I won't wishcast it. You get enough scares.
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Quoting 1227. GatorWX:


It certainly appears there's a lot of moisture flowing towards them. They're stuck in the middle of the flow which is conveniently placed over the front range.

Looks like the mountain areas of W/Central WYo may get some of this later tonight... though I don't think their flash flood potential is quite as high... it's been relatively dry there by comparison w/ CO...
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Quoting 1239. ndscott50:
I live at 119 and I-25 about five miles east of longmont colorado. The St. Vrain river is about a mile away and normally is 15 feet across and a foot deep. This morning it was just out of its banks and about a foot short of the bridge. By 10:30am they closed 119 due to the threat off the bridge being overtopped. The water was still a mile from the house. I did some work and then went to leave my house at 3pm. As I walked out a state trooper pulled up and said we had to leave. I asked how long we had and he said you need to leave now. His tone indicated he was series.

In 15 minutes we packed up two kids, two dogs and some clothes and headed out. At that point the fire trucks had arrived and they were just starting to go door to door. When I got to the only road out of the neighborhoods it was flooded and impassable. After turning around I found the state PD. They knocked down a fence at the back of the neighborhood so we could drive out. We still went through over a foot of water.

Latest update from the HOA indicated all ways out of the neighborhood were cut off. Those who stayed were instructed to fill their bath tubs, conserve cell power and shelter on the second floor of their homes. I am glad we acted quickly and the family is now safe with my inlaws in Greeley.

No idea on the status of my house. It was not on a federal flood plain and I was told flood insurance was not needed when I purchased it. My house sits on a high lot a good four or five feet above street level. They are calling this a 500 year flood up stream in Longmont. I am certain the area where my house sits has not flooded in recorded history. It is just amazing that that small river is over a mile wide and in my neighborhood. All I can do is wait to see what the morning brings.


happy y'all are safe, hope that the home is too.
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Quoting 1211. Tygor:


Oh sweet, only the 5th time this Fox News article was posted today.

Grothar leaves and everything goes to hell...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.