Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

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Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto, taken at 7:45 am EDT September 9, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane History
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

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1618. MrMixon
4:01 AM GMT on September 12, 2013
We are getting pounded here. Flash flood warning and all. I think i see an eye...



The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for... northwestern Jefferson County in northeast Colorado... Boulder County in northeast Colorado...

* until 1245 am MDT

* at 945 PM MDT... local law enforcement reported a continuation of flash flooding in Boulder County... with numerous Road closures and stalled vehicles due to flooding. Up to 3.5 inches of rain has already fallen in southeast Boulder... with widespread rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches over the rest of the warned area. Another one to as much as 2 inches of rain can be expected in some locations before decreasing.
Member Since: March 26, 2006 Posts: 44 Comments: 1520
1617. Ameister12
6:51 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Good afternoon everybody! :-)

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4898
1616. ncstorm
6:28 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
last night, CaribBoy posted an image while a commerical was on Cartoon Network :) and the wave looked like it had a number "9" in it..here is what I said

1236. ncstorm 5:01 AM GMT on September 10, 2013

Quoting 1234. CaribBoy:


EX98L looks like a june wave...



the number 9 in that pic stands for September which is going to be a historic month for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season..mark my words (or numbers)..good night!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14468
1615. Neapolitan
3:16 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
East of the Yucatan:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309101513
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2013, DB, O, 2013091012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932013
AL, 93, 2013091012, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
1614. ihave27windows
2:39 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1610. auspiv:

As an engineer, that glass is twice as big as it needs to be!


Rita, need to change your handle to BuzzKillBill! ;)
Member Since: July 19, 2005 Posts: 108 Comments: 14898
1613. BossCane
2:36 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1478. RitaEvac:


Nothing is going on, forecast is for sunny hot weather and drought conditions


Houston did drop the High Temp for Monday to 89 but with a 20% chance of rain... So you know something is up...
Member Since: August 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1612. OviedoWatcher
2:35 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1568. RitaEvac:


Days can be weeks

Parts of ECFL got >30" from TS Fay, so a 'perfect' storm dropping 50" is perfectly feasible, though not particularly likely.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
1611. unknowncomic
2:22 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
This is from the GFS 06z cyclone evolution for 98L. Not saying it will develop, but it seems like things are starting to pop.
On the 13th it will be in possible position to affect the Antilles.

Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
1610. auspiv
2:21 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1572. VR46L:


I think you and me would see two totally different things with this Image Rita...:)

Tell me what do you see?


As an engineer, that glass is twice as big as it needs to be!
Member Since: August 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
1609. Torito
2:19 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1608. daddyjames
2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1598. ricderr:
oh yeah baby.......humberto says he's gonna wreck a perfect season and be a cane.....gabby says to hell with the fat lady singing...she aint done dancing yet...there's some boc spin going on...and the lessers are ticking.......where are those that said this was over...looks like season peaked....well...when season is supposed to peak... ;-)

here's some vittles for a few.....mmmmm...looks good...


A poor substitute for ai's breakfast. Blah. :/
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1607. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1606. Halcyon19
2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
I really love when storms that are underestimated like Shary, Ophelia, and Michael (my avatar) go against predictions and strengthen! I hope that, once clear of Bermuda, Gabrielle proves previous thoughts wrong as well.
Member Since: September 3, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 57
1605. hydrus
2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1598. ricderr:
oh yeah baby.......humberto says he's gonna wreck a perfect season and be a cane.....gabby says to hell with the fat lady singing...she aint done dancing yet...there's some boc spin going on...and the lessers are ticking.......where are those that said this was over...looks like season peaked....well...when season is supposed to peak... ;-)

here's some vittles for a few.....mmmmm...looks good...
Great post..+50.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20509
1604. HurricaneCamille
2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
thank goodness windshear gonna beat up gabby so she not get strong and destroy nova scotia

thank goodness it not be another juan
Member Since: September 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
1603. daddyjames
2:17 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Well I was waiting for the update from Dr. JM, but . . .

G'morning from Central OK,

Things still roasty toasty here, thanks to that High meandering around the central portion of the US.



As mentioned more often by those in Texas, its been a while without appreciable rain



Short term forecast brings us into next week before any decent chance of rain is forecast.

Hopefully the second half of September will be wet enough to stifle any possible wildfire threat for this winter.

Gabrielle has resurrected herself, in time to plague Bermuda for the next 36-48 hours. And Humberto is churning away far to the west looking as if it'll beat the "latest hurricane to form" by 12 hours.

After that, or attention will shift to the BOC, to see if the one reliable region to form storms this year does it again.

Hope all are having a good day.

Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1602. Skyepony (Mod)
2:16 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
06z gfs run has Bermuda in TS winds now.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37359
1601. Torito
2:15 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1600. Hurricanemarian
2:15 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Time for some nutmeg as I watch Humberto die
Rip Humberto
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
1599. SFLWeatherman
2:14 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
More rain coming!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
1597. Torito
2:12 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
the south U.S.A has a natural hurricane shield up at the moment, nothing is getting through that dry air.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1595. CybrTeddy
2:09 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
More up-to-date image, note the convection firing off around the developing eyewall as the CDO becomes more symmetrical. This is a developing hurricane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
1593. CaneHunter031472
2:09 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
I have the feeling that the models are not strenghtening the Through enough, and we could eventually be surprised by this system in the GOMEX. This pattern is very different to what we have seen so far and I don't think it will just change that fast.

Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
1592. Torito
2:09 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1584. Hurricanemarian:
Humberto will not be hurricane and gabby and Humberto will die today
Air is too dry


humberto might have trouble soon though, as its track heads right in to the "red zone".

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1591. GatorWX
2:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1590. VR46L
2:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1579. clwstmchasr:


Looks like a glass of Vodka to me:)
Half Full or Half Empty ?;)

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6834
1589. daddyjames
2:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1586. VR46L:


Going really well , Things looking up !

But had major internet issues for 5 days ...


Better problems with the net, than with the life. :)
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1588. CybrTeddy
2:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1581. clwstmchasr:


I appreciate the value that you have brought to this blog.


He's just playing the game of "how much misinformation can I bring to this blog today."
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
1587. Torito
2:08 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1584. Hurricanemarian:
Humberto will not be hurricane and gabby and Humberto will die today
Air is too dry


gabs is fine, in its general northward path, there is plenty of moisture to absorb.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1586. VR46L
2:07 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1574. daddyjames:


LOL - things are improving, but I agree with Rita - it'll take a long time to replenish the soil moisture at deeper layers.

How are things on the other side of the pond?


Going really well , Things looking up !

But had major internet issues for 5 days ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6834
1585. CybrTeddy
2:07 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1556. Torito:



bigjokebastardi speaks again.


He's not wrong. Even though Isidore failed to become a Category 4, it was predicted to become one and make landfall at that strength in Louisiana before it made a track change into the Yucatan and weakened. Lili did become a Category 4, but weakened before landfall in Louisiana. Both were retired.

"It only takes one.."
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
1584. Hurricanemarian
2:06 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Humberto will not be hurricane and gabby and Humberto will die today
Air is too dry
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
1583. RitaEvac
2:06 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1579. clwstmchasr:


Looks like a glass of Vodka to me:)


Looks how everything looks around here, lakes, ponds, and detention basins all dried up half way!!

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1582. Torito
2:06 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Look at all that dry air (red) north of humberto.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1580. Hurricanemarian
2:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Humberto is dying
He took in so much dry air
He is choking
Another is killed by dry year


Poof Humberto
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
1578. Torito
2:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1577. SFLWeatherman
2:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4392
1576. Torito
2:02 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1560. clwstmchasr:


A 50" deficit?


we got 12" of rain/snow from sandy here in MD and it wasn't nearly the worst here...
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1575. RitaEvac
2:02 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1572. VR46L:


I think you and me would see two totally different things with this Image Rita...:)

Tell me what do you see?



lmao, no comment

Looks how everything looks around here, lakes, ponds, and detention basins all dried up half way!!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1574. daddyjames
2:01 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1572. VR46L:


I think you and me would see two totally different things with this Image Rita...:)

Tell me what do you see?



LOL - things are improving, but I agree with Rita - it'll take a long time to replenish the soil moisture at deeper layers.

How are things on the other side of the pond?
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3731
1573. Torito
2:00 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1572. VR46L
1:59 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1535. RitaEvac:


If you do a 5 year drought map we're basically in the deep red, as Houston is over 50" behind rainfall since Ike in 08'. The improvement is a smokescreen.



I think you and me would see two totally different things with this Image Rita...:)

Tell me what do you see?

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6834
1571. Torito
1:59 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1566. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


no the coc is little expose from the convection yet under the convective canopy of the CDO most of convective activity is confine to the se quad with a slight waning of convective feedback overall

09L/TS/H/CX





ah I see it now, a lot easier to see on that image.
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1570. CaribBoy
1:58 PM GMT on September 10, 2013


Guadeloupe radar has been down for days, and days, and day......................s
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1569. CaneHunter031472
1:58 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Where's Pat?
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1568. RitaEvac
1:58 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Quoting 1560. clwstmchasr:


A 50" deficit?


Days can be weeks
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.