Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

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Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto, taken at 7:45 am EDT September 9, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane History
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1217. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isn't September the quietest month for severe weather in the US?


Shh! Don't say that!

And I have no clue, sorry.
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Quoting 1213. Astrometeor:
It's quiet. Too quiet.

Isn't September the quietest month for severe weather in the US?
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Night guys.

Aussie, don't get burnt to a crisp please.
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Quoting 1212. AussieStorm:

I've removed it
I thought it was real until someone on Twitter mentioned it. No biggie :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting 1208. VAbeachhurricanes:


Why do you say that?
I tried to get Youtube to work on here... but I end up linking it. That video is a copy from South America event earlier this year.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
It's quiet. Too quiet.

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Quoting Bluestorm5:
Fake video.

Similar video from South America earlier this year

I've removed it

That video I posted is just a shortened cropped video of the one you posted.
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Quoting 1210. Astrometeor:


But there has been over 20 reports of an extremely bright fireball in/near Birmingham, AL.

Estimated size: fist to bowling ball.
I'm aware... it's also time when people spread around fake videos.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
Quoting 1207. Bluestorm5:
Fake video.

Similar video from South America earlier this year


But there has been over 20 reports of an extremely bright fireball in/near Birmingham, AL.

Estimated size: fist to bowling ball.
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Quoting 1207. Bluestorm5:
Fake video.



Why do you say that?
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Quoting 1180. AussieStorm:
meanwhile in Alabama....

Fake video.

Similar video from South America earlier this year
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8007
I just stepped out the back door and the smell of smoke is very strong, also noticed a few burnt leaves on the ground too. That tells me the bushfires are burning with very high energy levels maybe even 2500kW/h. Cause to lift a leaf into the air and to carry it 40km means it needs to go fairly high.
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Quoting 1157. GatorWX:


Yes! : )


amen amen amen
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5222
Quoting Astrometeor:


Wouldn't Texas welcome some rain? Seems like the only possible way out now is through a tropical storm or hurricane.


We could sure use another Hermine. The E-Pac is quiet for now. It could be quiet for the rest of the season since there isn't an El Nino.
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Quoting 1170. Skyepony:
Humberto model verification..ave model error in nm..0hr, 24hr, 48hr.

GFS (AEMN) is doing good..the AVN models are in it. OFCL humans in the show..

Biggest losers this storm so far are LBAR & CMC.

AEMN 17.5 12.3 22.7
...


I'm not surprised about the off performance of the GEM (CMC): statistically its historically been "meh" or worse, but this year it seems to be screwing up mid-latitude convection and short wave timing. Somehow there's too much fudge in the cake.
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1201. JLPR2
Gabrielle is looking alive, if it maintains itself I wouldn't be surprised to see it back at 5am.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah most don't think of the end result from a flicked cig when I use to drive I always had a pop can in the car with a little water in it to butt the cig


This could be the summer Sydney burns. It's been about 5 years since we've had a "bad" bushfire season here in Sydney. And with the last few summers being mostly wet due to La nina. Last summer 2012/13 was hot but not much bushfires due to wet undergrowth but since it's been so dry this year all that could change, and in a hurry.
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1199. will40


still very close to NHC at 174hrs
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1198. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1196. will40:


GFS almost right on the NHC track out 132 hrs with Humberto

That would be expected. GFS is in the lead..ave error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr..

AEMN 17.5 12.3 22.7
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Looks like rain for southern Texas which would be good news.

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1196. will40


GFS almost right on the NHC track out 132 hrs with Humberto
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Getting further north this run.

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1194. airmet3
Quoting 1192. Astrometeor:


Wouldn't Texas welcome some rain? Seems like the only possible way out now is through a tropical storm or hurricane.
Don't need the wind. I would rather wait for fronts from the north or a decaying Pacific storm
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what is the low at 1009 mb
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 15 Comments: 29493
Quoting 1181. airmet3:
Why? We're still recovering from Ike and Rita.


Wouldn't Texas welcome some rain? Seems like the only possible way out now is through a tropical storm or hurricane.
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1191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1186. AussieStorm:


It's to hot to early.... and this is the result of 26 days of zero rainfall. combined with very gusty winds. All it takes is 1 dh to go out into the bush and light a fire or 1 dh to flick his ciggy butt out the window and booommmm!!!! Bushfire that is threatening 30 homes.
yeah most don't think of the end result from a flicked cig when I use to drive I always had a pop can in the car with a little water in it to butt the cig
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Quoting oldnewmex:
Re: AussieStorm post ll44-
Isn't this a little early in your fire season?

Here in California, we are just coming to grips with the damage from the Rim Fire. Best of luck to you.


September is the start of our fire season,,, and its off with a bang here in New South Wales. Currently 40 fires burning all out of control.

Current fire map



Link

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1189. will40
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Tropical Update:

Link
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Re: AussieStorm post ll44-
Isn't this a little early in your fire season?

Here in California, we are just coming to grips with the damage from the Rim Fire. Best of luck to you.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks to be getting a little warm there aussie


It's to hot to early.... and this is the result of 26 days of zero rainfall. combined with very gusty winds. All it takes is 1 dh to go out into the bush and light a fire or 1 dh to flick his ciggy butt out the window and booommmm!!!! Bushfire that is threatening 30 homes.
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1184. SLU
9-8-0-0

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
1183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1178. AussieStorm:
looks to be getting a little warm there aussie
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1181. airmet3
Quoting 1166. Stormchaser121:
We have this high pressure over the eastern US...hmmmm....come on Carib storm....come to TX or SWLA
Why? We're still recovering from Ike and Rita.
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.
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1179. Skyepony (Mod)
Missing half a day of cloudsat data..all over the Atlantic. Our favorite part.


fisky~ Thanks.


vis0~ I'm putting your video back out there. Yeah it got mistaken for a random camel picture yesterday.. wasn't me~ I can clearly see the NHC sign in the background:) On the eve of "the day" it's spot on.

Anyways..peace out.
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Quoting 1175. prcane4you:
Do you see a WNW movement?.Watching the floater looks going west.
Perhaps we should ask visO #1165, this dude seems to know everything
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Quoting 1175. prcane4you:
Do you see a WNW movement?.Watching the floater looks going west.


For me its moving W... we'll see tomorow...
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Quoting 1171. sunlinepr:
Do you see a WNW movement?.Watching the floater looks going west.
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Quoting 1168. CybrTeddy:


ASCAT shows one clearly defined LLC.


I am sick to death of multi-llcs... although I do understand their purpose, attempting to vent the heat in as wide an area as possible in however many vorts it takes to do it until they consolidate. Then something happens and you have Gab who had that vampire on her Ern neck who kept her from a forward path.
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1172. flsky
Quoting 1170. Skyepony:
Humberto model verification..ave model error in nm..0hr, 24hr, 48hr.

GFS (AEMN) is doing good..the AVN models are in it. OFCL humans in the show..

Biggest losers this storm so far are LBAR & CMC.

AEMN 17.5 12.3 22.7
AVNI 0 38.0 25.1
AVNO 14.8 18.9 30.2
OFCL 0 22.0 -

LBAR 0 81.8 240.0
CMC 47.8 147.6 179.8

Should be noted just about all the models overshot intensity by 20kt at 48hrs out.




I've seen it a few times over the years. I'm in Melbourne. We have similar views on AGW. I can't remember who that was that really just thought you were my second handle. It was a long time ago. Not long after you appeared.

Don't remember the exact wording of that the other night either. You didn't do anything wrong. I think their comment got flagged out.

OK. Thanks for that. I've always enjoyed your posts and appreciated the way you never get baited and just stick to the weather. I can certainly appreciate why they asked you to be a moderator.
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1170. Skyepony (Mod)
Humberto model verification..ave model error in nm..0hr, 24hr, 48hr.

GFS (AEMN) is doing good..the AVN models are in it. OFCL humans in the show..

Biggest losers this storm so far are LBAR & CMC.

AEMN 17.5 12.3 22.7
AVNI 0 38.0 25.1
AVNO 14.8 18.9 30.2
OFCL 0 22.0 -

LBAR 0 81.8 240.0
CMC 47.8 147.6 179.8

Should be noted just about all the models overshot intensity by 20kt at 48hrs out.


Quoting 1140. flsky:


Hi, "Skye." I wasn't aware that people were confusing us. I didn't realize we lived somewhat close. Are you above Ponce Inlet or below.


I've seen it a few times over the years. I'm in Melbourne. We have similar views on AGW. I can't remember who that was that really just thought you were my second handle. It was a long time ago. Not long after you appeared.

Don't remember the exact wording of that the other night either. You didn't do anything wrong. I think their comment got flagged out.
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Banding is beginning to redevelop; Humberto continues to intensify; the low-level circulation seems tucked into the convection.

Night.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Quoting 1163. redwagon:


Once again I am the multi-vort party-pooper but you can see not one solid circle but two semis:



Very common these last few years.


ASCAT shows one clearly defined LLC.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.